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***Official 2020 Election General***


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19 minutes ago, Drunken Cowboy said:

Beast out of a keg is better than many other domestic beers. Still crap, but better than some other crap.

when he was young little bobby brewmaster went to bed every night dreaming of brewing a beer that would save cities and change the world and when he read that his beer was still crap but better than some other crap he knew he had achieved his dream take that to the bank bromigos 

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also not for nothing but the wyoming bucking bronco is the best college mascot and it aint even close take that the bank bucaroohans 

Edited by SWC
and with that im out have a good one bromigos maybe see you later
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1 hour ago, Redwes25 said:

There real question is what is everyone drinking tonight?  No matter who you want to win you have a reason to drink (disappointment, celebration or just calm you nerves).  Think I am going to have some Blantons.  

I have some Dewars and a bottle of Champagne Chilling. Probably won't need it tonight. 

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Maybe it’s just been me avoiding politics for the most part, but I’m a little surprised at how little the fact that it’s almost a foregone conclusion that the Democrats are going to control both houses of Congress has been talked about. It seems like almost everything has focused on the Presidency.

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1 minute ago, GroveDiesel said:

Maybe it’s just been me avoiding politics for the most part, but I’m a little surprised at how little the fact that it’s almost a foregone conclusion that the Democrats are going to control both houses of Congress has been talked about. It seems like almost everything has focused on the Presidency.

I think 50/50 in the Senate has a reasonable chance of happening 

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1 hour ago, SWC said:

also not for nothing but the wyoming bucking bronco is the best college mascot and it aint even close take that the bank bucaroohans 

I had a buddy in college who didn't follow football at all, until he learned that the big Oregon rivalry was between the Beavers and the Ducks.   From that moment on he was all in on the Oregon Civil War.   Still didn't follow anything else though.

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So here it seems to me are the key facts that should, hopefully, give Biden a win in Florida: 

1. In 2016, Trump beat Hillary in Florida by 1%. 
2. Senior citizens made up 21% of the vote. 
3. Senior citizens favored Trump over Hillary by 17 points. 
4. Senior citizens favor Trump over Biden by 9 points. 
 

That 8 point difference is everything; it’s the reason polls have Biden consistently ahead by 3-4 points in Florida. Trump supporters have acknowledged this but they’re arguing that it will be countered by increased support from Latino men in the big cities, cutting into Trump’s support. 
 

We’ll see. My prediction is Texas is a mirage, Georgia is a mirage, North Carolina too close to call, but Florida and Arizona are victories for Biden and it will be an early night. 

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3 minutes ago, timschochet said:

So here it seems to me are the key facts that should, hopefully, give Biden a win in Florida: 

1. In 2016, Trump beat Hillary in Florida by 1%. 
2. Senior citizens made up 21% of the vote. 
3. Senior citizens favored Trump over Hillary by 17 points. 
4. Senior citizens favor Trump over Biden by 9 points. 
 

That 8 point difference is everything; it’s the reason polls have Biden consistently ahead by 3-4 points in Florida. Trump supporters have acknowledged this but they’re arguing that it will be countered by increased support from Latino men in the big cities, cutting into Trump’s support. 
 

We’ll see. My prediction is Texas is a mirage, Georgia is a mirage, North Carolina too close to call, but Florida and Arizona are victories for Biden and it will be an early night. 

He knows.   He always knows.

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11 minutes ago, The Future Champs said:

I had a buddy in college who didn't follow football at all, until he learned that the big Oregon rivalry was between the Beavers and the Ducks.   From that moment on he was all in on the Oregon Civil War.   Still didn't follow anything else though.

I can respect that.  Ask him if ever wants tickets to that one at Autzen, I can hook him up.  I almost never go....too cold!  

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6 minutes ago, timschochet said:

So here it seems to me are the key facts that should, hopefully, give Biden a win in Florida: 

1. In 2016, Trump beat Hillary in Florida by 1%. 
2. Senior citizens made up 21% of the vote. 
3. Senior citizens favored Trump over Hillary by 17 points. 
4. Senior citizens favor Trump over Biden by 9 points. 
 

That 8 point difference is everything; it’s the reason polls have Biden consistently ahead by 3-4 points in Florida. Trump supporters have acknowledged this but they’re arguing that it will be countered by increased support from Latino men in the big cities, cutting into Trump’s support. 
 

We’ll see. My prediction is Texas is a mirage, Georgia is a mirage, North Carolina too close to call, but Florida and Arizona are victories for Biden and it will be an early night. 

I like this logic. It looks like the Hispanic vote is about 17% this year, so the change in the older voting block, if it’s correct, could very well offset Biden’s comparative weakness among the Hispanic block compared to 2016.

 

Pew analysis of Hispanic registration 

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So, is this the thread to hang out in tonight?

I already got a pic from a friend of a CNN exit poll asking about the handling of COVID--51% said it was bad and 48% said it was good.  My friend assumed this definitively meant a Biden victory.  Some people want it too badly.

Here's the poll.

Edited by chet
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4 minutes ago, chet said:

So, is this the thread to hang out in tonight?

I already got a pic from a friend of a CNN exit poll asking about the handling of COVID--51% said it was bad and 48% said it was good.  My friend assumed this definitively meant a Biden victory.  Some people want it too badly.

48% of people think it’s been good?  That seems like good news for Trump, IMO.

ETA - all the exit polling is skewed heavily towards R’s though so now that I think about it maybe your friend is right - although I know many people who think it was bad and still plan to vote for him.

Edited by AAABatteries
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29 minutes ago, timschochet said:

So here it seems to me are the key facts that should, hopefully, give Biden a win in Florida: 

1. In 2016, Trump beat Hillary in Florida by 1%. 
2. Senior citizens made up 21% of the vote. 
3. Senior citizens favored Trump over Hillary by 17 points. 
4. Senior citizens favor Trump over Biden by 9 points. 
 

That 8 point difference is everything; it’s the reason polls have Biden consistently ahead by 3-4 points in Florida. Trump supporters have acknowledged this but they’re arguing that it will be countered by increased support from Latino men in the big cities, cutting into Trump’s support. 
 

We’ll see. My prediction is Texas is a mirage, Georgia is a mirage, North Carolina too close to call, but Florida and Arizona are victories for Biden and it will be an early night. 

Look we are talking about cocktails in here.  Not sure where this election analysis is coming from.  What we really need to know is what are you pouring yourself tonight!

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4 minutes ago, General Malaise said:

Sportsbook.ag current odds:

Biden -195/Trump +160

 

 

Biden O/U 310.5 Electoral Votes:

OVER +120/Under -150

 

 

Popular Vote:

Biden -1000/Trump +625

 

 

Seems a lot closer than most Dems would have you believe. 

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25 minutes ago, HellToupee said:

https://twitter.com/wizard_predicts/status/1323758012025184261?s=21
 

🚨🚨UPDATE: #Republicans now lead by in #Florida by 205,413 votes. Per FL GOP GOTV Tracker.

Either that account is full of doodoo or there are going to be some very shocked people tonight. I still don't know what to believe. That account is showing Clark County Nevada as having a Republican lead. Nevada is one of those states where geographically its all red and then one area, in this case Clark County (Las Vegas) is overwhelmingly blue and it's enough to carry the state. Las Vegas voting red would be jaw dropping.

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Why do the Democrats keep elevating Pelosi? Her political instincts seem terrible. Coming out on Election Day and saying that Barrett is illegitimate seems dumb. Dirty politics, hypocritical, etc yes. Illegitimate? Not sure what the point of calling her that is as they certainly won’t have any way to remove her and with Republicans being more likely to vote in person it just seems like making a statement like that today only serves to boost Republican turnout potentially.

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Just now, GroveDiesel said:

Why do the Democrats keep elevating Pelosi? Her political instincts seem terrible. Coming out on Election Day and saying that Barrett is illegitimate seems dumb. Dirty politics, hypocritical, etc yes. Illegitimate? Not sure what the point of calling her that is as they certainly won’t have any way to remove her and with Republicans being more likely to vote in person it just seems like making a statement like that today only serves to boost Republican turnout potentially.

Because she’s the most effective Speaker in the history of Congress, and up to today, the most successful woman in the history of American politics. 

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2 minutes ago, Rirruto said:

I have not been pacing my drinking well for what will be a long night. I preemptively apologize for all the nonsense I post in this thread.

I think you meant to say you will preemptively give us a “you’re welcome”? What a bizarre autocorrupt by your phone. 

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6 minutes ago, timschochet said:

Because she’s the most effective Speaker in the history of Congress, and up to today, the most successful woman in the history of American politics. 

I hate to admit, but I almost forgot about that potential milestone today (Kamala as VP).

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