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***Official 2020 Election General*** (1 Viewer)

rickroll said:
granted I’m still in a fog, but isn’t it a lot closer than this right now?
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Closeness doesn't matter as much as how many votes are left and where those votes are coming from.

It's like a 3 point basketball with the leading time at the free throw line with 10 seconds left. Yeah, it's close, but largely in one team's favor.

Also, we aren't watching results come in in a normal order. It's like watching a recap of a game where they show all of one team's highlights and then show all of the other team's highlights. It gives a misleading picture based on when you look.

 
So in wading into the far-right conspiratorial side of things to see what they are saying (As trump clearly listens to them) there was a data dump in Michigan that occurred at some point.  People have screen shots etc.  Apparently there was a batch of 130k votes (something along those lines) that came in, and every single vote was for Biden.  So Biden's numbers went up in one update and Trump's didn't move.  This is feeding a conspiracy, and Trump alluded to it in a tweet.

 
timschochet said:
Really? I don’t think it’s that complicated. President Trump spent 4 months telling his supporters not to use mail in votes. 
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Right, sociology.  My theory might be wrong, but it is still a sociology question.

 
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Terpman22 said:
I'm on her twitter page right now. She has posted as recently in the last hour, so it seems the news about her is.....fake?
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Could be.  I read that she’d been booted for the tweet that was quoted in here last night.

yep, she’s still on there.  My bad

 
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squistion said:
Soulfly3 said:
@realDonaldTrump

How come every time they count Mail-In ballot dumps they are so devastating in their percentage and power of destruction?
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How come? Well...because Trump told his base that they were fraudulent and not to use them. Democrats still used them so they heavily favor Biden.
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I suspect it also has something to do with a global pandemic that Trump insists is no big deal.  His supporters believe him and figure they can show up safely.

 
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Chaz McNulty said:
PA will be really interesting.  I think this one will be really close once all the early voting is in.  A 560,000 point lead seems insurmountable, but Biden came back fairly strong in Michigan.

I find the dynamics to be strange between Dems and Republicans in their voting habits.  R's vote so much more on the day of the election and D's vote early so much more.  I could understand a slight variance, but the percentages are huge.  Trump has a 10 point lead in PA with most of the same day votes counted.  If Biden gets a 60/40 split on the remaining, he will claw back 620,000 votes.  I'm not sure who I would consider the favorite for PA.
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I don’t think it’s that difficult to figure out why there’s such a stark difference in early vs day-of voting. Democrats are more likely to believe that going to physically vote is dangerous to their health and others’ during a pandemic, and Republicans have been listening to Trump trash mail-in voting as an option for months now while not taking the pandemic seriously. Seems easy to understand to me.

 
@benrileysmith

Summary. Trump campaign argues they will - Win Pennsylvania by 40k-ish votes - Win Arizona by 30k-ish votes Note R districts still to be come in Michigan + Wisconsin Are upbeat on Nevada with the race still tight. Bottom line: They are saying loud Trump will win.

 
Jayrod said:
I have zero concerns about the Supreme Court.  They will do their job as is stated in the Constitution.  None of them are rogue Republicans looking to steal the election.  That narrative is the same as "they're coming to take our guns!!!".
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Yea I think I agree. I don’t trust them for many social issues, but they aren’t going to do some rogue vote tipping, and I really don’t even know what they could do anyhow. 

 
Biff84 said:
Still a bit nervous. Data guy for a local news station has said it’s too soon and disagreed with Fox and AP calling it. I still think it goes to Biden but could be another surprise.
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Biden is up 100k votes with 98% of the vote in.  AZ is done.

Edit:  Actually, I just noticed that AP says 84% of the vote is in for Arizona.  NYT says 98% and both are showing identical vote totals.  So I may have jumped the gun here, but still....100k votes is a lot to overcome.

 
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Biff84 said:
Still a bit nervous. Data guy for a local news station has said it’s too soon and disagreed with Fox and AP calling it. I still think it goes to Biden but could be another surprise.
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apparnetly 400,000 votes remain to be counted, and the swing for Trump today w the counts has been massive

 
Soulfly3 said:
@benrileysmith

Summary. Trump campaign argues they will - Win Pennsylvania by 40k-ish votes - Win Arizona by 30k-ish votes Note R districts still to be come in Michigan + Wisconsin Are upbeat on Nevada with the race still tight. Bottom line: They are saying loud Trump will win.
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And that Arizona fantasy was just quashed when the latest update showed Biden up 3% with 98% of the vote in.

 
Mr Anonymous said:
And that Arizona fantasy was just quashed when the latest update showed Biden up 3% with 98% of the vote in.
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I was with you, but AP shows 84% of vote is in. Time to check other sources.

Guardian says 84%

CNN says 86%.  So NYT may have some bad data here.  

 
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shader said:
So in wading into the far-right conspiratorial side of things to see what they are saying (As trump clearly listens to them) there was a data dump in Michigan that occurred at some point.  People have screen shots etc.  Apparently there was a batch of 130k votes (something along those lines) that came in, and every single vote was for Biden.  So Biden's numbers went up in one update and Trump's didn't move.  This is feeding a conspiracy, and Trump alluded to it in a tweet.
Click to expand...
Can you at least admit that looks unlikely?

 
ConnSKINS26 said:
I don’t think it’s that difficult to figure out why there’s such a stark difference in early vs day-of voting. Democrats are more likely to believe that going to physically vote is dangerous to their health and others’ during a pandemic, and Republicans have been listening to Trump trash mail-in voting as an option for months now while not taking the pandemic seriously. Seems easy to understand to me.
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So my wife worked the election in my city. In-person voting yesterday had Trump up 60-40. Now that all the early votes have been counted, Biden won 60-40.

 
shader said:
Biden is up 100k votes with 98% of the vote in.  AZ is done.

Edit:  Actually, I just noticed that AP says 84% of the vote is in for Arizona.  NYT says 98% and both are showing identical vote totals.  So I may have jumped the gun here, but still....100k votes is a lot to overcome.
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Especially in Maricopa. 

 
shader said:
So in wading into the far-right conspiratorial side of things to see what they are saying (As trump clearly listens to them) there was a data dump in Michigan that occurred at some point.  People have screen shots etc.  Apparently there was a batch of 130k votes (something along those lines) that came in, and every single vote was for Biden.  So Biden's numbers went up in one update and Trump's didn't move.  This is feeding a conspiracy, and Trump alluded to it in a tweet.
Click to expand...
Just saw someone post this on FB. Expect it to be a major talking point.

 
Jayrod said:
It's really more of a sociology question as to why mail in voters trend to Biden.

I would venture that mail-in voters are more concerned with COVID which is a big reason for people voting Biden.

It's looking more and more like the virus has cost Trump this election.
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And it's much easier to vote by mail...

 
Haha yeah I was looking for the 98%, Fox and CNN both at 86.  

I still think it's looking Grim for the Trump camp overall.

 
-fish- said:
We’re supposed to listen to Piers Morgan now?  
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I actually find it rather refreshing in a weird way.  We actually count them with a human element and a gritty ugly legal system.  Seems to be, on some level, pretty democratic of us.

Not to mention that his statement is rather ignorant of the very structure of our country and the fact that the national federal government is not a monolith.  But, yeah, I know theoretical politics is not anyone's desire right now.

 
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