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***Official 2020 Election General***


hagmania

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2 minutes ago, gianmarco said:

Don't see an issue with that. I wouldn't expect different . Hillary did the same 4 years ago and the vote changed by like 115 votes, I think. 

I think it was Jill Stein that demanded the recount because Clinton wouldn't do it.

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Seems like Trump's chances involve him holding PA and GA and somehow flipping AZ.  Hard to see how AZ happens, but it's clear that calling AZ last night for Biden was premature and you can see why team Trump was upset.  I don't think calling it really affects anything beside the narrative, but it leaves people with some egg on their faces.

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28 minutes ago, -fish- said:

This Wisconsin election official on CNN is very confident that they have done everything right and to the letter of the law.   

"100% confident that the laws of our state were followed."

They're now going to triple-check ballots and audit 5% of the counting equipment.

Vote totals are still outstanding in Richland County.

Wisconsin Election Commissioner Meagan Wolfe said she misspoke when she told another network all ballots had been counted.

https://wisn.com/article/presidential-race-in-dead-heat-in-wisconsin/34569634?src=app

Edited by Mr.Pack
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1 minute ago, Hugh Jass said:

Am I out of mind that Biden could get Georgia here?  Am I putting myself for a huge disappointment that I have Ga up on Politico's map and am slamming F5 F5 F5?

Given what is outstanding, it's possible.  I'm not letting my mind wrap itself around it too much though. It's still Georgia.

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1 minute ago, Hugh Jass said:

Am I out of mind that Biden could get Georgia here?  Am I putting myself for a huge disappointment that I have Ga up on Politico's map and am slamming F5 F5 F5?

Biden could get GA ...and/or NC ...and/or PA.

But if he holds NV and MI, he's got 270.  Dems would like one of those three, I'm sure, as buffer against the recount/legal madness that's looming.

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1 minute ago, Mr.Pack said:

Vote totals are still outstanding in Richland County.

Wisconsin Election Commissioner Meagan Wolfe said she misspoke when she told another network all ballots had been counted.

That's 17k people (no idea how many are registered voters) 

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1 minute ago, tri-man 47 said:

Biden could get GA ...and/or NC ...and/or PA.

But if he holds NV and MI, he's got 270.  Dems would like one of those three, I'm sure, as buffer against the recount/legal madness that's looming.

NV worries the crap out of me.  So close and seems odd.  Man, Georgia would let me eat again. :stomachpain:

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4 minutes ago, Mr.Pack said:

Vote totals are still outstanding in Richland County.

Wisconsin Election Commissioner Meagan Wolfe said she misspoke when she told another network all ballots had been counted.

For fricks sake Meagan, lol

Edited by Mr Anonymous
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6 minutes ago, gianmarco said:

Any idea what's going on with Arizona and lack of updates? Numbers haven't changed at all.

Couple posts mentioned nothing til a data dump tonight. I can't say with certainty, but that is exactly what happened last night. Kornacki stopped himself mid sentence and changed subjects because 3/4 of Maricopa reported.

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3 hours ago, -fish- said:

This has been a claim for the last 4 years.  Trump supporters claim they lie to pollsters so the democrats will put their time and money in the wrong places, then -surprise- the “shy”Trump voters suddenly pop up at the election.  

I don't understand why anyone, Biden or Trump supporter, would even take a call from a pollster. Like any other spammer, you aren't getting past caller ID and if you do, it's an automatic hang-up. 

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4 minutes ago, Mr.Pack said:

Vote totals are still outstanding in Richland County.

Wisconsin Election Commissioner Meagan Wolfe said she misspoke when she told another network all ballots had been counted.

https://wisn.com/article/presidential-race-in-dead-heat-in-wisconsin/34569634?src=app

Yeah that was part of the interview I watched.   I thought she said it was a couple hundred votes.

Edited by -fish-
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1 minute ago, MAC_32 said:

Couple posts mentioned nothing til a data dump tonight. I can't say with certainty, but that is exactly what happened last night. Kornacki stopped himself mid sentence and changed subjects because 3/4 of Maricopa reported.

Memory is fuzzy, but didn't the AZ Senate race in 2018 take forever to call?  I feel like it was Friday at the earliest.

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1 minute ago, gianmarco said:

Any idea what's going on with Arizona and lack of updates? Numbers haven't changed at all.

Numbers haven't really changed at all anywhere.  It is 1:00pm EST and not a single state has been completed in 12 hours.  It's like everyone just checked out so far today.

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8 minutes ago, Chaz McNulty said:

Using simple math for PA.

64% of votes in for a total of 8.823M.  

5.647M votes counted

3.176M votes left to count.

Dems down 464K votes.

A 60/40 split in remaining votes gives them a net 700K votes.  Does anyone know the early voting and mail-in voting averages?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/upshot/pennsylvania-election-results-ballots.html

It was somethingn like 78/21 some time  late last night/early this morning

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14 minutes ago, gianmarco said:

Any idea what's going on with Arizona and lack of updates? Numbers haven't changed at all.

Ducey trying to bribe election officials.with free cold stone ice cream for life.

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1 minute ago, Jayrod said:

Numbers haven't really changed at all anywhere.  It is 1:00pm EST and not a single state has been completed in 12 hours.  It's like everyone just checked out so far today.

If I was an election commissioner (and I've known a few) I wouldn't report anything today until I was 150% sure that I did everything right.  And if that means I ignore my phone, email and texts - and my Governor and Attorney General - and keep making my people check, re-check and check again before my name is on any "result," I would and wouldn't give it a second thought.  You only have to be right once.  But if you are wrong...

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Just now, pantherclub said:

Im getting a bit nervous now

they were saying this HOURS ago... and slowly numbers are starting to show they were right. 

in the end, who knows... it'd take something wild by the looks of it, but the outstnding votes are apparently in Rep. heavy areas (they say)

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7 minutes ago, -fish- said:
11 minutes ago, Mr.Pack said:

Vote totals are still outstanding in Richland County.

Wisconsin Election Commissioner Meagan Wolfe said she misspoke when she told another network all ballots had been counted.

https://wisn.com/article/presidential-race-in-dead-heat-in-wisconsin/34569634?src=app

Yeah that was part of the interview I watched.   I thought she said it was a couple hundred votes.

i have been to richland county a lot and like to fish over there the total population is about 17000 people so even if none had been counted and they all voted for trump it would not change the outcome of the election also they have a frank lloyd wright building in richland center that they dont really take all that great care of and its pretty sad but they do have two quick trips take that to the bank bromigos 

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7 minutes ago, pantherclub said:

Republicans' data analysts think Trump is going to get a 2:1 advantage from the rest of the vote in Maricopa county.   They base this on the length of lines at polls on election day.  

They think somehow they're going to switch a Biden lead of 52-46 in that county and other rural counties that are almost even to  Trump 75-25 for the remaining 400,000 votes.   

Edited by -fish-
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1 minute ago, -fish- said:

Republicans' data analysts think Trump is going to get a 2:1 advantage from the rest of the vote in Maricopa county.   They base this on the length of lines at polls on election day.  

They think somehow they're going to switch 52-46 in that county and other rural counties that are almost even to 75-25 for the remaining 400,000 votes.   

Yea it’s all wishcasting at this point. We can just easily sit down and do the math ourselves. 

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1 minute ago, Capella said:

Based off of where the outstanding votes are left and the current outcomes that have been counted in those areas I think Nevada and Arizona are in the bag for Biden. The math doesn’t add up for Trump. 

i love how if you look at it from a numbers standpoint, I agree 100%

then you have Trump's side saying they'll have ARZ by 30k and NEV by about 5k.

this is amazingly fun

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look i know there is not an actual really big bag that they stuff the states in to once they are declared but it would be pretty cool if there was and i would also put a spider in there so it would bite anyone who tried to steal the states take that to the bank brochachos 

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Just now, Soulfly3 said:

i love how if you look at it from a numbers standpoint, I agree 100%

then you have Trump's side saying they'll have ARZ by 30k and NEV by about 5k.

this is amazingly fun

Well we already have 85-90% of the votes in for those areas. What are the chances that the extra 10-15% remaining uncounted has a significant break from what has already been counted? 

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Just now, Capella said:

Based off of where the outstanding votes are left and the current outcomes there I think Nevada and Arizona are in the bag for Biden. The math doesn’t add up for Trump. 

Data Orbital 

The analysis on outstanding ballots mostly being from Maricopa and favoring Biden misses a huge factor: at least 250k of the remaining ballots have a Republican advantage of 20%. Unlike in other states, late earlies will favor Trump. #ElectionTwitter #Election2020  #AZ

 

fwiw

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