Official 2020 Election General (6 Viewers)

mr roboto · Nov 4, 2020

SWC said:
i have been to richland county a lot and like to fish over there the total population is about 17000 people so even if none had been counted and they all voted for trump it would not change the outcome of the election also they have a frank lloyd wright building in richland center that they dont really take all that great care of and its pretty sad but they do have two quick trips take that to the bank bromigos

how many DQs?

Zow · Nov 4, 2020

Mr Anonymous said:
Yep. There's potential that good, sound things might get done. Radical things likely won't, and that sounds great to me.

Me too.

skol asylum · Nov 4, 2020

Gary Peters back in the lead

HellToupee · Nov 4, 2020

Don Quixote said:
Well, I'm sure if the situation were reversed and Trump was winning by a small margin, I'm sure Trump would agree to that as well.

I dont think so. Father Trump is an all or nothing guy , let it ride type

timschochet · Nov 4, 2020

Mr Anonymous said:
Yep. There's potential that good, sound things might get done. Radical things likely won't, and that sounds great to me.

I have no problem with it except for the stimulus package. That demands immediate attention and the conservative senators are blocking it.

bostonfred · Nov 4, 2020

tri-man 47 said:
At least she's got an independent streak to her, FWIW.

sounds like she's learned her lesson

Capella · Nov 4, 2020

HellToupee said:
Data Orbital

The analysis on outstanding ballots mostly being from Maricopa and favoring Biden misses a huge factor: at least 250k of the remaining ballots have a Republican advantage of 20%. Unlike in other states, late earlies will favor Trump. #ElectionTwitter #Election2020 #AZ

fwiw

Seems to me there are around 225k votes left there? Currently 52% for Biden so should be about 134k - 91k pickup for Biden there if that trend holds. Now if that 225k is heavily tilted towards R voters, I can’t account for that but I doubt it.

MAC_32 · Nov 4, 2020

Mr Anonymous said:
Susan Collins is re-elected in Maine. If I'm not mistaken, R's maintain control of the Senate with that one.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think (technically) it won't happen til the Georgia run-off. That isn't going blue though.

skol asylum · Nov 4, 2020

Susan Collins could.still.lose.if she doesn't hit 50% threshold. Goes to a second choice situation.

BassNBrew · Nov 4, 2020

timschochet said:
I have no problem with it except for the stimulus package. That demands immediate attention and the conservative senators are blocking it.

I don't think so. I think Trump is blocking it.

Biff84 · Nov 4, 2020

DraftGuru said:
Probably won’t until 7pm local, at least not from Maricopa County.

Yeah all outstanding votes in Maricopa County are counted but won’t be released until then. Not sure why. I guess the outstanding votes are ‘late earlies’ which are mail in ballots dropped off yesterday.

CletiusMaximus · Nov 4, 2020

good one on Michigan https://twitter.com/KingJosiah54/status/1324002867229855746

gianmarco · Nov 4, 2020

MAC_32 said:
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think (technically) it won't happen til the Georgia run-off. That isn't going blue though.

That's what I thought. Plus, I thought NC could still go blue. Has that race been called yet?

mrip541 · Nov 4, 2020

Biden from -525 to -300...

pantherclub · Nov 4, 2020

mrip541 said:
Biden from -525 to -300...

uh oh

moleculo · Nov 4, 2020

pantherclub said:
https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1324046952682704896?s=21

can anyone explain?

I took their numbers of outstanding votes, per county and using NY Times data, assigned each counties voting proportions to the remaining uncounted. in short, Biden gains 22k votes. The two biggest counties with unprocesed votes were Maricopa (Biden +6) and Pima (Biden +22). I'd be curious why they think these ballots are heavily republican. I mean, some counties are, but not the big ones. Hell, Mariocpa is bigger than the rest combined.

gruecd · Nov 4, 2020

SWC said:
i have been to richland county a lot and like to fish over there the total population is about 17000 people so even if none had been counted and they all voted for trump it would not change the outcome of the election also they have a frank lloyd wright building in richland center that they dont really take all that great care of and its pretty sad but they do have two ~~quick~~ kwik trips take that to the bank bromigos

fyp

SWC · Nov 4, 2020

mr roboto said:
SWC said:

i have been to richland county a lot and like to fish over there the total population is about 17000 people so even if none had been counted and they all voted for trump it would not change the outcome of the election also they have a frank lloyd wright building in richland center that they dont really take all that great care of and its pretty sad but they do have two quick trips take that to the bank bromigos

Click to expand...

how many DQs?

just one bromigo and it is right by starlight 14 the drive in take that to the honest to god truth bank brochacho

BassNBrew · Nov 4, 2020

gianmarco said:
That's what I thought. Plus, I thought NC could still go blue. Has that race been called yet?

No. Votes can arrive until November 13th. No one knows how many are in the mail.

Osaurus · Nov 4, 2020

cap'n grunge said:
Susan Collins could.still.lose.if she doesn't hit 50% threshold. Goes to a second choice situation.

The longest 2-term Senator in history should just end it

BassNBrew · Nov 4, 2020

mrip541 said:
Biden from -525 to -300...

These books are going to go out of business if this keeps up. Surely people are abusing them on this.

moleculo · Nov 4, 2020

HellToupee said:
Data Orbital

The analysis on outstanding ballots mostly being from Maricopa and favoring Biden misses a huge factor: at least 250k of the remaining ballots have a Republican advantage of 20%. Unlike in other states, late earlies will favor Trump. #ElectionTwitter #Election2020 #AZ

fwiw

weird. Taking Maricopa out of the mix and there are 190k ballots still there. many heavily favor Trump but there's still Pima (Biden +22).

Zow · Nov 4, 2020

BassNBrew said:
These books are going to go out of business if this keeps up. Surely people are abusing them on this.

Yeah I'm genuinely frustrated I'm not in a position to get in on this action. Easy, easy money given that you could have tickets with both at > +200.

Don't Toews Me · Nov 4, 2020

Man, Democrats really underperformed in those House seats in Texas compared to expectations.

-fish- · Nov 4, 2020

bostonfred said:
sounds like she's learned her lesson

she's very concerned.

Don't Toews Me · Nov 4, 2020

.

@SenSusanCollins in Maine says @SaraGideon just called her to concede.

https://twitter.com/jenhab/status/1324051722029981698

mr roboto · Nov 4, 2020

I feel bad for these secretaries of State and State level voting officials who get drug out on national TV and are asked questions they can’t answer.

Yankee23Fan · Nov 4, 2020

Yankee23Fan said:
Georgia is now 2,385,954 Trump.... 2,299,830 Biden

86k and change. I think that's a few thousand LOWER than about 2 hours ago but I didn't do the real math then.

Georgia down to 83k in Trump's favor. Those Atlanta counties are eating into the number slowly...

-fish- · Nov 4, 2020

moleculo said:
HellToupee said:

Data Orbital

The analysis on outstanding ballots mostly being from Maricopa and favoring Biden misses a huge factor: at least 250k of the remaining ballots have a Republican advantage of 20%. Unlike in other states, late earlies will favor Trump. #ElectionTwitter #Election2020 #AZ

fwiw

Click to expand...

weird. Taking Maricopa out of the mix and there are 190k ballots still there. many heavily favor Trump but there's still Pima (Biden +22).

Data Orbital works for the Trump Campaign.

Pipes · Nov 4, 2020

GroveDiesel said:
Now Biden’s lawyer saying that they’ve won the election. SMH. Not as bad as Trump’s speech last night, but still inappropriate. This is why this election is so close: both candidates are way less than ideal.

Such a nice way of putting it.

Prinefan · Nov 4, 2020

HellToupee said:
This is insane

Give Donald 2 years and the Biden 2 years

Unfortunately trump has already suggested he'll change the laws so he can stay for a third term. Putin does come to mind.

Ilov80s · Nov 4, 2020

Yankee23Fan said:
Flint, Michigan surrounding county is pretty much a dead heat. I don't know enough about local Michigan politics to speak to that, but I didn't expect that at all.

I assume that doesn’t include the city of Flint?

FreeBaGeL · Nov 4, 2020

BassNBrew said:
These books are going to go out of business if this keeps up. Surely people are abusing them on this.

They usually have pretty low max bet amounts on politics wagers.

Don't Toews Me · Nov 4, 2020

WASHINGTON (AP) — Donald Trump wins 2nd Congressional District in Maine.

https://twitter.com/tackettdc/status/1324057655518941184

2Squirrels1Nut · Nov 4, 2020

GroveDiesel said:
Now Biden’s lawyer saying that they’ve won the election. SMH. Not as bad as Trump’s speech last night, but still inappropriate. This is why this election is so close: both candidates are way less than ideal.

Is it really asking too much for both sides to keep their yappers shut until the votes are counted?

[scooter] · Nov 4, 2020

Don't Toews Me said:
https://twitter.com/tackettdc/status/1324057655518941184

The nightmare of 270 inches closer towards reality.

CletiusMaximus · Nov 4, 2020

BassNBrew said:
gianmarco said:

That's what I thought. Plus, I thought NC could still go blue. Has that race been called yet?

Click to expand...

No. Votes can arrive until November 13th. No one knows how many are in the mail.

What an incredible spectacle it will be if we have to wait until 11/13 as mail-in votes trickle in for North Carolina in order to decide this election.

General Malaise · Nov 4, 2020

Biden -250/Trump +200

:mellow:

IvanKaramazov · Nov 4, 2020

2Squirrels1Nut said:
Is it really asking too much for both sides to keep their yappers shut until the votes are counted?

Eh, this is totally normal. Campaigns always overstate their position in contested elections.

Don't Toews Me · Nov 4, 2020

Wow. Final returns are in from Macomb County, the blue-collar suburbs of Detroit, home to fabled "Reagan Dems" Trump won it by 12 points in 2016. Trump won it by 8 points in 2020. POTUS team hoped he'd *increase* that margin by 3-4 points. The opposite happened.

https://twitter.com/TimAlberta/status/1324045834808401926

Per my map on Fox: 100% in for Macomb

264,467 (53.3%) for Trump

225,509 (45.4%) for Biden

da_budman · Nov 4, 2020

KarmaPolice said:
I am guessing this is what the "real truth" on social media is touting too?

I dont see how. You think social media is so inuned to what 1 guy on a geek football site says? Thats so conspiracy theory right there.

Osaurus · Nov 4, 2020

OAN states Dems are going to commit "lawfare". Solid work.

Biff84 · Nov 4, 2020

moleculo said:
I took their numbers of outstanding votes, per county and using NY Times data, assigned each counties voting proportions to the remaining uncounted. in short, Biden gains 22k votes. The two biggest counties with unprocesed votes were Maricopa (Biden +6) and Pima (Biden +22). I'd be curious why they think these ballots are heavily republican. I mean, some counties are, but not the big ones. Hell, Mariocpa is bigger than the rest combined.

The outstanding votes are mail in votes that were dropped off on Election Day. The Trump campaign is projecting based those votes going to Trump at the same clip as the in person voting (60% Trump). If that’s true, he has a chance. But if it trends more like mail-in voting, Biden will widen his lead. Most likely outcome is a combination of the two. My guess is that it leans towards in-person trends, brings Trump closer but not enough to win - maybe 55% Trump when he needs 60% to win.

Steve Tasker · Nov 4, 2020

[scooter] said:
If Biden ends up with 270 EV, then there's no doubt in my mind that we end up with a faithless elector who throws the vote to the House.

But there's actually a sliver of a silver lining to that scenario -- if the faithless elector votes for Romney or Kasich or some other reasonable Republican, then he would suddenly become eligible for the House vote. At that point, the Democrats could join forces with one or two Republican states to at least vote Trump out of office.

A faithless elector muddying up a 270-268 presidential election would be peak 2020.

Zow · Nov 4, 2020

Osaurus said:
OAN states Dems are going to commit "lawfare". Solid work.

What's this now?

Yankee23Fan · Nov 4, 2020

Yankee23Fan said:
Georgia down to 83k in Trump's favor. Those Atlanta counties are eating into the number slowly...

81k now

Osaurus · Nov 4, 2020

Zow said:
What's this now?

OAN off the rails as usual. Claiming Dems are going to alter the election through law warfare or lawfare evidently.

Death Bytes · Nov 4, 2020

Biff84 said:
The outstanding votes are mail in votes that were dropped off on Election Day. The Trump campaign is projecting based those votes going to Trump at the same clip as the in person voting (60% Trump). If that’s true, he has a chance. But if it trends more like mail-in voting, Biden will widen his lead. Most likely outcome is a combination of the two. My guess is that it leans towards in-person trends, brings Trump closer but not enough to win - maybe 55% Trump when he needs 60% to win.

Seems ironic that Trump is assuming the outstanding mail in votes will match the rate of in person voting he got in that district, when he basically begged is supporters to vote in person and not through the mail.

Don't Toews Me · Nov 4, 2020

Don't Toews Me said:
https://twitter.com/jenhab/status/1324051722029981698

Collins holds on despite Gideon polling better

Mene · Nov 4, 2020

Yankee23Fan said:
Flint, Michigan surrounding county is pretty much a dead heat. I don't know enough about local Michigan politics to speak to that, but I didn't expect that at all.

I live in SE Genesee county, there is a lot of trump support in the rural areas and small towns outside of flint. I'm not shocked at all that things are close here. If you based your expectations strictly on lawn signs, you'd think trump would carry the county 75/25.

***Official 2020 Election General*** (6 Viewers)

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