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***Official 2020 Election General***


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4 minutes ago, Zow said:

From Silver on the current state of the close races, addressing why part registration isn't necessarily indicative of how things play out for Trump:

"But … here’s the bad news for Trump. Party registration may be a misleading indicator in Arizona. It has a lot of ancestral Republicans who have now turned into swing voters."

 

As somebody who thought I was alone on an island out here, I couldn't be happier.  Maybe there's some Facebook group I can join.

They probably have a softball team.

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I’ve been a lifelong Republican who never voted for Trump in either election (so no guilt here).  I voted Biden, which was my first time ever voting for a Democrat. I’m proud to be an American right n

Tommy Nyman  @Tombiznar Who would have thought 2 men in their 70s could maintain an election for this long?

As this goes on you can see the hard work and seriousness with which everyone in the government is taking the process and how dedicated they are to being transparent and accurate. Except for one perso

@gianmarco just getting up.

MI & WI got called? Anything else happen? And no I don’t care what he tweeted but thnx.   

77 days to vacate. Don’t take the good China on your way out either.

Stafford on the Covid list. You’re killing it, 2020, year of century already.

Edited by BobbyLayne
thumbs, laKC of coffee, et al
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Just now, gianmarco said:

It's almost as if you haven't been paying attention to the news or voting trends everywhere for the last few weeks. Maybe you haven't, but EVERYONE is reporting increased turnout, biggest election ever, huge lines, mailing in, etc.

Don't know what else to tell you. Go after the conspiracy theory stuff if you like, I'm done.

You're getting mad but I'm not saying this to back Trump. This is a brand new tool that politicians will never let go now. Next time it will incorporated into both parties platforms to make sure the mail in votes are sent to every man woman and child in the nation. If you believe in the benevolence of politicians that's on you. Think what the fallout would be if Ted Cruz comes in 2024 with 15-20m mail in votes after the fact to save the day. You think the totals will ever go back to pre-2020 levels again? I don't think so.

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7 minutes ago, Insein said:
14 minutes ago, Cold Dead Hands said:

The PA website shows the highest voter turnout ever was in 2016. They also show over 9 million registered voters. Seems reasonable that in a year that has drawn record turnouts in nearly every state that they would exceed their previous election cycles record high turnout. I get what you are insinuating, but that kind of organized fraud would be very difficult to hide, and further would require the implicit participation of a ridiculous number of civil servants. I don’t know if you have ever worked in government on the local level but the civil servants in the cubicles are of every political and social stripe. So for this deceit to be possible a number of Republicans, Libertarians, Green Party, etc. affiliated human beings would have to all clasp hands with their Democrat brethren and sing campfire songs all the while risking the ruination of their Own careers and lives. Yeah, that seems plausible.

There is going to be 7m+ votes cast in the state. That's about 78% turnout then. That is the highest since they start tracking it by a ridiculous margin. I'm not comfortable accepting the increase overall as "people hate Trump" because Trump has higher totals too. Like record highs in some states. 

No one has a problem with a statistical increase of votes across the board by nearly 25-30m from all other elections?

Not when mail ballots are involved. Look at every other state that switched to mail ballots. Their turnout increased dramatically.

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11/4/20
9:01 PM
Georgia (GA)
Republican Candidate -170
Democratic Candidate +130


Nevada (NV)
11/4/20
9:01 PM
Nevada (NV)
Democratic Candidate -650
Republican Candidate +400


North Carolina (NC)
11/4/20
9:01 PM
North Carolina (NC)
Republican Candidate -1000
Democratic Candidate +550


Pennsylvania (PA)
11/4/20
9:01 PM
Pennsylvania (PA)
Democratic Candidate -460
Republican Candidate +310

 

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2 minutes ago, -fish- said:

They probably have a softball team.

I hope so. My current teams think I'm some hippie liberal commie. 

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1 minute ago, Soulfly3 said:

@benshapiro

In PA, Trump is up by approximately 454K votes. There are 1.12M votes outstanding; Biden needs 78% of those votes to win the state. 300K of those votes are in Philadelphia. Even if Biden wins 95% of those votes, he still needs to pull 70% of the other votes. That's a heavy lift.

Ben Shapiro huh?

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2 minutes ago, Insein said:

You're getting mad but I'm not saying this to back Trump. This is a brand new tool that politicians will never let go now. Next time it will incorporated into both parties platforms to make sure the mail in votes are sent to every man woman and child in the nation. If you believe in the benevolence of politicians that's on you. Think what the fallout would be if Ted Cruz comes in 2024 with 15-20m mail in votes after the fact to save the day. You think the totals will ever go back to pre-2020 levels again? I don't think so.

So now your issue is more registered voters and easier route to voting? Color me confused.

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1 minute ago, Soulfly3 said:

@benshapiro

In PA, Trump is up by approximately 454K votes. There are 1.12M votes outstanding; Biden needs 78% of those votes to win the state. 300K of those votes are in Philadelphia. Even if Biden wins 95% of those votes, he still needs to pull 70% of the other votes. That's a heavy lift.

NYT has Trump up 319,876. This tweet is from five minutes ago. Haven't see a number like that for a couple hours in PA. His tweet is part of a thread where the first tweet starts with "So here are the latest stats I'm hearing via the Trump campaign..." Not sure if that's the context of the 454k.

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2 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

@gianmarco just getting up.

MI & WI got called? Anything else happen? And no I don’t care what he tweeted but thnx.   

77 days to vacate. Don’t take the good China on your way out either.

Stafford on the Covid list. You’re killing it, 2020, year of century already.

Calling it early eh?

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2 minutes ago, Insein said:

You're getting mad but I'm not saying this to back Trump. This is a brand new tool that politicians will never let go now. Next time it will incorporated into both parties platforms to make sure the mail in votes are sent to every man woman and child in the nation. If you believe in the benevolence of politicians that's on you. Think what the fallout would be if Ted Cruz comes in 2024 with 15-20m mail in votes after the fact to save the day. You think the totals will ever go back to pre-2020 levels again? I don't think so.

Many states have been doing this for a long time.   And this is 20th century technology.   Imagine how many votes there will be when you can log in to a secure website and vote.

We want everyone to vote, right?  Isn't that the idea?

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4 minutes ago, Soulfly3 said:

@benshapiro

In PA, Trump is up by approximately 454K votes. There are 1.12M votes outstanding; Biden needs 78% of those votes to win the state. 300K of those votes are in Philadelphia. Even if Biden wins 95% of those votes, he still needs to pull 70% of the other votes. That's a heavy lift.

Well the margin is 320k, so not sure about his math.

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19 minutes ago, CletiusMaximus said:

Trump campaign moves to intervene in pending PA case.  The SCOTUS will certainly grant this and away we go.  To be clear, this lawsuit does not challenge any ballots received by yesterday, only challenges counting ballots postmarked by 11/3 and received through 11/6.  Hopefully, PA won't matter, but there will surely be other lawsuits.

 

SCOTUS should stay clear from state electoral rules IMO.

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12 minutes ago, Insein said:

There is going to be 7m+ votes cast in the state. That's about 78% turnout then. That is the highest since they start tracking it by a ridiculous margin. I'm not comfortable accepting the increase overall as "people hate Trump" because Trump has higher totals too. Like record highs in some states. 

No one has a problem with a statistical increase of votes across the board by nearly 25-30m from all other elections?

 

Your objection has been noted.

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2 minutes ago, Zow said:

I hope so. My current teams think I'm some hippie liberal commie. 

They'll all start using legal pot and mellow out.   Bring them some edibles.  

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3 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

@gianmarco just getting up.

MI & WI got called? Anything else happen? And no I don’t care what he tweeted but thnx.   

77 days to vacate. Don’t take the good China on your way out either.

Stafford on the Covid list. You’re killing it, 2020, year of century already.

Yes, both MI and WI got called. Assuming AZ, which was already called by AP, only needs 1 more state: NV, GA, NC, or PA.

Best bet is NV, I believe. GA is running out of time. 76000 down with 96% reporting. Needs to get like 70% of remaining to even it up. PA a better shot. But NV is likely the one.

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17 minutes ago, gianmarco said:

Currently 85% reported. That leaves 15%.

Trump currently up 3.1M vs 2.8M. 

That's a total of 5.9M votes. 

85% of 6.9M is 5.9M

That means there are 1M votes left.

So Biden needs about 65% of the remaining votes in PA, it appears.

In AZ, I think Trump needs about 60% of the remaining votes.

In NV, I think Trump needs about 52% of the remaining votes.

Anyone else show something similar or more accurate?  Given trends on the remaining votes (mostly mail-in), it's feasible for Biden in PA and challenging for Trump in AZ and NV.

In GA, Biden needs closer to 70%, yes?  Very tight.

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6 minutes ago, Soulfly3 said:

@benshapiro

In PA, Trump is up by approximately 454K votes. There are 1.12M votes outstanding; Biden needs 78% of those votes to win the state. 300K of those votes are in Philadelphia. Even if Biden wins 95% of those votes, he still needs to pull 70% of the other votes. That's a heavy lift.

Shapiro's numbers are out of date. Trump's lead is down to 319,377 and Biden only needs to win around 64% of remaining votes to win.

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6 minutes ago, Insein said:

You're getting mad but I'm not saying this to back Trump. This is a brand new tool that politicians will never let go now. Next time it will incorporated into both parties platforms to make sure the mail in votes are sent to every man woman and child in the nation. If you believe in the benevolence of politicians that's on you. Think what the fallout would be if Ted Cruz comes in 2024 with 15-20m mail in votes after the fact to save the day. You think the totals will ever go back to pre-2020 levels again? I don't think so.

What’s the problem with more people voting? 

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5 minutes ago, Insein said:

You're getting mad but I'm not saying this to back Trump. This is a brand new tool that politicians will never let go now. Next time it will incorporated into both parties platforms to make sure the mail in votes are sent to every man woman and child in the nation. If you believe in the benevolence of politicians that's on you. Think what the fallout would be if Ted Cruz comes in 2024 with 15-20m mail in votes after the fact to save the day. You think the totals will ever go back to pre-2020 levels again? I don't think so.

I would be ecstatic if every eligible voter in the country was mailed a ballot directly. Everyone deserves their vote, and for it to be counted.

I have no idea what you're trying to imply with the Ted Cruz thing. That mail in ballot are (by definition) fraudulent?

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2 minutes ago, gianmarco said:

Yes, both MI and WI got called. Assuming AZ, which was already called by AP, only needs 1 more state: NV, GA, NC, or PA.

Best bet is NV, I believe. GA is running out of time. 76000 down with 96% reporting. Needs to get like 70% of remaining to even it up. PA a better shot. But NV is likely the one.

NYT has GA at 67,948 and 310,000 votes remaining. That means Biden needs 61%.

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1 minute ago, gianmarco said:

Yes, both MI and WI got called. Assuming AZ, which was already called by AP, only needs 1 more state: NV, GA, NC, or PA.

Best bet is NV, I believe. GA is running out of time. 76000 down with 96% reporting. Needs to get like 70% of remaining to even it up. PA a better shot. But NV is likely the one.

And ME district 2 to Trump 

humor me, I’m olds:

253 - 214

AK (3) Trump 217

AZ (11) not called likely Biden 264

NV (6) not called likely Biden 270

thanks GB

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2 minutes ago, tri-man 47 said:

So Biden needs about 65% of the remaining votes in PA, it appears.

In AZ, I think Trump needs about 60% of the remaining votes.

In NV, I think Trump needs about 52% of the remaining votes.

Anyone else show something similar or more accurate?  Given trends on the remaining votes (mostly mail-in), it's feasible for Biden in PA and challenging for Trump in AZ and NV.

In GA, Biden needs closer to 70%, yes?  Very tight.

Yes to all.

I think likelihood for Biden, in order, is NV, PA, GA, and then NC.

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5 minutes ago, gianmarco said:

Yes, both MI and WI got called. Assuming AZ, which was already called by AP, only needs 1 more state: NV, GA, NC, or PA.

Best bet is NV, I believe. GA is running out of time. 76000 down with 96% reporting. Needs to get like 70% of remaining to even it up. PA a better shot. But NV is likely the one.

Georgia:  66K down with 96% :ph34r:

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8 minutes ago, Insein said:

You're getting mad but I'm not saying this to back Trump. This is a brand new tool that politicians will never let go now. Next time it will incorporated into both parties platforms to make sure the mail in votes are sent to every man woman and child in the nation. If you believe in the benevolence of politicians that's on you. Think what the fallout would be if Ted Cruz comes in 2024 with 15-20m mail in votes after the fact to save the day. You think the totals will ever go back to pre-2020 levels again? I don't think so.

 

Why would we ever want less people to vote in this country? Absolutely every single American politician should believe that the best possible outcome is every voting eligible American casting a vote. That's not the case, but ideally it would be. Voting is mandatory in Australia! I'm not saying we should go that far, but it should be much easier and more encouraged to vote in this country than it has been. The pandemic created the perfect situation, really, to allow us to see more of the potential of our voting age population. 

Yes, I do believe that mass early and mail-in ballot voting should and could become more of the norm going forward. New systems should be put into place to encourage this and help it happen smoothly, preventing the types of delays we're seeing right now. 

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3 minutes ago, Soulfly3 said:

@Wizard_Predicts

Giuliani is out for blood. Says the Trump Team will bring a national lawsuit and expose all of the corruption.

.. sounds desperate

Including the cannibalistic pedophiles?   It's finally happening!

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20 minutes ago, Insein said:

There is going to be 7m+ votes cast in the state. That's about 78% turnout then. That is the highest since they start tracking it by a ridiculous margin. I'm not comfortable accepting the increase overall as "people hate Trump" because Trump has higher totals too. Like record highs in some states. 

No one has a problem with a statistical increase of votes across the board by nearly 25-30m from all other elections?

 

We have an unprecedented pandemic infecting millions, killing hundreds.of thousands, and wrecking havoc with our economy. Not a stretch to think there may be a little more interest than usual in deciding who can lead us out of the mess.

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