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***Official 2020 Election General***


hagmania

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1 minute ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

The elderly consistently voting for the party that wants to cut and dismantle their Medicare and SS by calling them “entitlements” has always confused me. I’ve always assumed it was successful misinformation and messaging distracting from that fact, offering up shiny fools gold in the form of abortions, guns, and taxes to focus on. 

The elderly are breaking hard for Biden in the polls running up to the election.

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1 minute ago, GroveDiesel said:

Interestingly, it seems that if Trump does indeed go on to win Florida as it looks like he will, it appears to be due almost entirely to a large increase in Cuban and Hispanic support. 

Yup.   Cuban hispanics must have broken hard for him in Miami Dade.  Not entirely unexpected.  He was polling very well with them.   

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Continuing my Quixote-like task of reading midwest tea leaves with Indiana:

In Wabash, Martin, Parke counties (Rural counties almost completely counted), Trump is running -1%, -0.8%, +1.1% Turnout at ~110% of 2016 levels.

Boone county (I think suburban), 82% in according to NYT, Trump running -6.6% vs. 2016, turnout at 96% so far.

So, high turnout, suburbia moves toward Biden but rural stays firmly in the Trump camp?  Midwest might be reaally close again.

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1 minute ago, JAA said:

Armchair QB next week will be about FL. Clearly Biden put no focus on it. Did the campaign decide Ohio was the better play and dropped FL?  Could be the decider here. 

doubt it

there are a ton of paths to 270 without FL

whereas Trump's only path HAS to have FL in his column

keeps him alive but by no means fatal to Biden

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1 minute ago, Dr_Zaius said:

Continuing my Quixote-like task of reading midwest tea leaves with Indiana:

In Wabash, Martin, Parke counties (Rural counties almost completely counted), Trump is running -1%, -0.8%, +1.1% Turnout at ~110% of 2016 levels.

Boone county (I think suburban), 82% in according to NYT, Trump running -6.6% vs. 2016, turnout at 96% so far.

So, high turnout, suburbia moves toward Biden but rural stays firmly in the Trump camp?  Midwest might be reaally close again.

Indiana was never really in play, though - looked red all summer and fall

southern Indiana is a world unto itself; not sure what to call it but midwest doesn't fit lol

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1 minute ago, BobbyLayne said:

doubt it

there are a ton of paths to 270 without FL

whereas Trump's only path HAS to have FL in his column

keeps him alive but by no means fatal to Biden

I’m not saying it will decide the election, I say that the armchair qb will definitely focus on this. The look back could be genius or stooge

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2 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

Indiana was never really in play, though - looked red all summer and fall

southern Indiana is a world unto itself; not sure what to call it but midwest doesn't fit lol

It's North Kentucky

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5 minutes ago, stlrams said:

Do we think it’s the Cuban/Hispanic vote for trump pulling up Miami dade?

It's also recent conservative retirees in Ft, Myers, the Villages, north Florida. About 300,000 people have been moving here yearly. Retirees don't want to pay taxes.

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Just now, shader said:

By this logic, Virginia is leaning Trump.  I think VA will swing blue and OH will swing red.  Not nearly enough data to think either will swap.

Depends.  When does each start counting absentee ballot?.  Any swingy state that doesn't start counting absentees until polls close will initially have trump ahead.

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