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***Official 2020 Election General***


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I’ve been a lifelong Republican who never voted for Trump in either election (so no guilt here).  I voted Biden, which was my first time ever voting for a Democrat. I’m proud to be an American right n

Tommy Nyman  @Tombiznar Who would have thought 2 men in their 70s could maintain an election for this long?

As this goes on you can see the hard work and seriousness with which everyone in the government is taking the process and how dedicated they are to being transparent and accurate. Except for one perso

28 minutes ago, Zow said:

I agree with your sentiment but: 

1. People are afraid of online voting. This would be the easiest and most efficient way yet, I suppose somewhat understandably, people remain wary of cyber attacks despite us doing a lot of other very important things online (e.g. filing taxes, now filing court pleadings, etc.). 

 

I am anti online voting even though I will do most anything else online. If there’s a glitch and info disappears or is compromised, it’s a huge hassle but is usually fixable over time. CC cancels the CJ charges, I have to redo some work, upload things again, etc. With an election, I’m not sure our laws and systems are setup to handle that. It would invite chaos if day 50k votes from Detroit disappeared or 1 million Georgia votes were deemed compromises somehow. How do we move forward from that? 

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1 minute ago, gianmarco said:

I lied.  There are no automatic recount laws for Georgia. It's state dependent.  But it can (and will almost assuredly will) be requested when it's under 0.5%.  That's a foregone conclusion at this point.

Recounts change a couple hundred votes at most. If the initial result is over 1,000 votes you can take it to the bank. 

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8 minutes ago, shader said:

You don't have to count the votes to know how many ballots are remaining to be counted.  There were 50k.  Now there are 61k.  Do you not see how that can create a negative perception? 

Sure, but you should apply the simplest explanation as it's likely the correct one.   Besides the state executive, Sec. of State, and legislature are controlled by the GOP.  Why would they pull some fraudulent BS here to get Biden elected? Also it might have the knock on effect of swinging a GA senate race too.

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41 minutes ago, gianmarco said:

Online voting is the answer, eventually, though.

Would love this. However, I have visions of Russian, Chinese, Iranian, and North Korean agents easily changing actual votes at will. Not even a real technological challenge to them, so far as I know.

If others know more and have more up-to-date information about how voting websites can have essentially perfect security, I'm eager to learn more. Typically, to my knowledge, network security experts will hedge hard and stay far away from promising perfect security -- and they'll say things like "any security measure can be beaten".

And no, those who would hack into stock-trading sites and such would be far less capable and motivated. So the existing level of security for stock-trading sites and such, I would think, is not comparable. Yes, even though it's big dollars.

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7 minutes ago, Kilgore Trout said:

PA could happen today, but I doubt it since there are apparently a lot of provisional ballots to go through. Friday is looking more likely as the call day.

A coworker of mine in PA was lost on the signature book (her husband and 3 adult children also).  She's voted in every primary and general election for as long as she can remember; and as recent as the 2020 primary.  Her county switched from an electronic system to a paper system and screwed it all up.  When she went to the Judge for a provisional ballot, he showed her the stack of others that got screwed up.

All that to say - I can see why this taking forever for PA.

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1 minute ago, timschochet said:

North Carolina says we won’t know until next Thursday. 
 

lololol

That's because they accept mail in votes 10 days later if postmarked by 11/3.  We've known that.  Luckily it shouldn't matter at all, both because of how the other states are right now and current EV and because it's almost assuredly going to stay with Trump even if it's close.

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4 hours ago, IvanKaramazov said:
7 hours ago, Joe Summer said:

If Republicans attempt to nullify legal votes, it will be a black mark on the party a million times darker than anything Al Gore ever did.

I'm not aware of any situation in my lifetime in which a party argued in favor of nullifying legal votes.  It's probably happened somewhere -- there are a lot of races and it's inevitable that someone, somewhere probably tried this, but I don't know of any high profile cases involving something like this.

In the case of something like PA, the argument is that votes rolling in after election day aren't legal votes to begin with.  I probably would have agreed with that argument a few weeks ago.  Now that we're past election day and you're dealing with ballots cast by people who were complying in good faith with what was probably an erroneous court ruling, I'm probably changing my mind and leaning strongly toward counting them.  But regardless, it's question-begging to frame this issue as whether to nullify legal votes, since the legality of those votes is the main issue.  (Presumably you would object if somebody framed this as "Democrats are trying to tally illegally-cast ballots," but that framing is exactly as fair as yours).

I agree. When I wrote "nullify legal votes," I meant it in terms of "votes which were legally cast according to the laws of that state."

Under normal circumstances, I would lean towards agreeing with those who believe that the PA judge went too far with re-writing election law. But when the state basically tells voters that the judge's ruling is the new law, and the Supreme Court allows the ruling to stand, and then the voters comply in good faith to what the state and the SCOTUS tells them.....then I lean towards counting those votes.

Nonetheless, I don't begrudge Trump for trying to nullify the post-election votes in PA and NC.  My concern — and the reason for my "black mark on the party" comment — is that the Republicans will attempt to nullify ALL post-election ballots in every state, even the votes from states where post-election ballots have been legal for years. For example, Nevada law allows ballots to arrive up to 7 days after Election Day, and Arizona law allows voters to correct their signature (if your ballot is initially rejected) up to 5 days after Election Day. If Republicans try to nullify those votes to win this election, it would be a black mark to say the least.

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12 minutes ago, shader said:

You don't have to count the votes to know how many ballots are remaining to be counted.  There were 50k.  Now there are 61k.  Do you not see how that can create a negative perception? 

Your point is definitely well taken.  One reason I (personally) really want Biden to get above in Georgia as compared to PA is that the Georgia state apparatus is almost all GOP right?  To take the wind out the sails of a lot of the conspiracy stuff that will no doubt carry forward I'd love to have the Georgia GOP-run fact in the back pocket.

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3 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Would love this. However, I have visions of Russian, Chinese, Iranian, and North Korean agents easily changing actual votes at will. Not even a real technological challenge to them, so far as I know.

If others know more and have more up-to-date information about how voting websites can have essentially perfect security, I'm eager to learn more. Typically, to my knowledge, network security experts will hedge hard and stay far away from promising perfect security -- and they'll say things like "any security measure can be beaten".

And no, those who would hack into stock-trading sites and such would be far less capable and motivated. So the existing level of security for stock-trading sites and such, I would think, is not comparable. Yes, even though it's big dollars.

I don't get this thinking, but admittedly I would trust experts on this if they truly say it's not possible. 

I mentioned in another thread, if I can pay my taxes online to the IRS submitting all kinds of personal information, SSN, etc. and can regularly do online banking, why can't a singular event, especially if handled by each state separately (not 1 big unit overseeing the entire national election) be done securely?

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45 minutes ago, Yankee23Fan said:

Day 3.......

I feel like my brain stem is soaking in cheap scotch.  Unfortunately I have a busy work week and am completely failing.

One silver lining has been the fun I've had with my 15 year old these past two nights.  Its been fun seeing him so engaged with the live coverage of the events, results, maps, etc.  We are having a blast switching among all the different map artists and election gurus.  Last night we watched Tucker, Hannity, Maddow, some freak interviewing Ollie North on OAN, PBS, and lots of John King.  He's got no idea how absolutely freakin absurd all of 2020 has been.

 

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5 minutes ago, Maurile Tremblay said:

Seen on Twitter re Nevada's sluggishness:

"Literally the two things Nevada is known for is COUNTING THINGS and STAYING UP ALL NIGHT!!!!"

They've been done since 11pm Tuesday.  They're also known for "What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas."

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52 minutes ago, Yankee23Fan said:

Day 3.......

Bourbon is low, but morale remains high. There’s a chill in the air, because my wife likes to keep it a little chilly in the house. The count continues, never-ending, unyielding, incessant...seriously, it never ends*.John King shows no signs of faltering, but my dogs have retreated to the basement. Send donuts. 

* Except in non-participating states like...Nevada. Just Nevada.

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2 minutes ago, gianmarco said:

I don't get this thinking. 

I mentioned in another thread, if I can pay my taxes online to the IRS submitting all kinds of personal information, SSN, etc. and can regularly do online banking, why can't a singular event, especially if handled by each state separately (not 1 big unit overseeing the entire national election) be done securely?

Bruce Schneier expains:

Quote

...Voting systems have another requirement that makes security even harder to achieve: the requirement for a secret ballot. Because we have to securely separate the election-roll system that determines who can vote from the system that collects and tabulates the votes, we can’t use the security systems available to banking and other high-value applications.

We can securely bank online, but can’t securely vote online. If we could do away with anonymity — if everyone could check that their vote was counted correctly — then it would be easy to secure the vote. But that would lead to other problems. Before the US had the secret ballot, voter coercion and vote-buying were widespread.

We can’t, so we need to accept that our voting systems are insecure. We need an election system that is resilient to the threats. And for many parts of the system, that means paper...

 

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Georgia official says 61,367 votes left.  Trump up by about 18,500.  Nate Silver (didn't check his math) said weighted partisan lean of remaining vote counties is D+20 or 60%.  60% won't do it for Biden - needs more like 65%, but these are mail ballots, so they should be above 60% you would think.  Have to think this is within a few thousand either way, maybe even closer.

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7 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Would love this. However, I have visions of Russian, Chinese, Iranian, and North Korean agents easily changing actual votes at will. Not even a real technological challenge to them, so far as I know.

If others know more and have more up-to-date information about how voting websites can have essentially perfect security, I'm eager to learn more. Typically, to my knowledge, network security experts will hedge hard and stay far away from promising perfect security -- and they'll say things like "any security measure can be beaten".

And no, those who would hack into stock-trading sites and such would be far less capable and motivated. So the existing level of security for stock-trading sites and such, I would think, is not comparable. Yes, even though it's big dollars.

As a software engineer, I'll post the obligatory XKCD comic:
https://xkcd.com/2030/

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I’m sure the next plan is try to find all the dead people who voted and use that as claims for mass fraud. I see many on social media already running with that because some guy on Tucker said so.

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Philly Inquirer reporting Montgomery county and Chester County have done counting, which are big Dem counties.  Looks like that basically leaves Philly and Alegheny counties left with the most votes left ot be counted votes in Philly.  Also looks like Bucks has some votes left but that is more divided with slight Dem edge. 

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44 minutes ago, Zow said:

1. People are afraid of online voting. This would be the easiest and most efficient way yet, I suppose somewhat understandably, people remain wary of cyber attacks despite us doing a lot of other very important things online (e.g. filing taxes, now filing court pleadings, etc.). 

You don't have big chunks of the military budgets of entire nations spent on messing with our taxes.

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Trip Gabriel

@tripgabriel

Allegheny County, PA still has 35,413 uncounted mail-in ballots, but elections staff is taking today off for "administrative work" and will not resume count until Friday. "I can't get an answer as to why,'' says @bethanyhallam, a member of county elections board.

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3 minutes ago, dgreen said:

Guy from GA on CNN right now going county by county saying how many are left to count.

Fulton County is 11,200. 

Yes - Fulton 11,200, Clayton (even bluer), 7,408, Chatham (more suburban, but blue) - 17,157.  Those are the main Biden areas.  About 12,000 in 5 heavily Trump counties on the other side.

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4 minutes ago, dgreen said:

Guy from GA on CNN right now going county by county saying how many are left to count.

Fulton County is 11,200. 

Just saw that. That's huge. He's already polling at 72% there. It'll be higher than that being mail-in. Could cut 4k off the lead there alone.

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1 minute ago, Dr_Zaius said:

Yes - Fulton 11,200, Clayton (even bluer), 7,408, Chatham (more suburban, but blue) - 17,157.  Those are the main Biden areas.  About 12,000 in 5 heavily Trump counties on the other side.

Thanks. I wasn't familiar with the other counties so wasn't sure which ones would have impact.

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5 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

I’m sure the next plan is try to find all the dead people who voted and use that as claims for mass fraud. I see many on social media already running with that because some guy on Tucker said so.

If they are smart they will say they are dead Russian guys...that will get everyone's attention...

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15 minutes ago, timschochet said:

Recounts change a couple hundred votes at most. If the initial result is over 1,000 votes you can take it to the bank. 

those are my words and you dont get to use them take that to the bank bromigo 

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7 minutes ago, dgreen said:

Guy from GA on CNN right now going county by county saying how many are left to count.

Fulton County is 11,200. 

amazing how differently that was interpreted in the posts that followed ;)

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5 minutes ago, mcintyre1 said:

As a software engineer, I'll post the obligatory XKCD comic:
https://xkcd.com/2030/

My favorite part is when she mentions blockchain. As a patent attorney, I can't tell you how many times I ask somebody "so what is new with this idea" and get back "well, we're doing it with blockchain" (and/or AI). 

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2 minutes ago, gianmarco said:

I think it helps him for sure. A big chunk of the 60K is in blue areas.

That is not a lot of votes left out there.  11k in Fulton seems pretty low to me.  Some of other counties help but he needs a very high percentage of remaing ballots to win and looks like a fair number are from red counties.  It is going to be tough.  

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6 minutes ago, Dr_Zaius said:

Yes - Fulton 11,200, Clayton (even bluer), 7,408, Chatham (more suburban, but blue) - 17,157.  Those are the main Biden areas.  About 12,000 in 5 heavily Trump counties on the other side.

 

1 minute ago, Redwes25 said:

That is not a lot of votes left out there.  11k in Fulton seems pretty low to me.  Some of other counties help but he needs a very high percentage of remaing ballots to win and looks like a fair number are from red counties.  It is going to be tough.  

More than half from those areas. If he hits 75% on these, then he only needs 55% from the others to average about 65%.

Seeing that split makes me more optimistic.

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6 minutes ago, Dr_Zaius said:

Yes - Fulton 11,200, Clayton (even bluer), 7,408, Chatham (more suburban, but blue) - 17,157.  Those are the main Biden areas.  About 12,000 in 5 heavily Trump counties on the other side.

Biden getting 75% of these would cut the lead by about 17,900. 

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32 minutes ago, shader said:

You don't have to count the votes to know how many ballots are remaining to be counted.  There were 50k.  Now there are 61k.  Do you not see how that can create a negative perception? 

In defense of the Secretary of State for GA he did say "about 50k" and he said it in a radio interview, not a public address.  Given that the figure is constantly changing I ALWAYS assumed that he'd err on the side of (small c) conservatism and that he wouldn't have said "about 50k) if he thought the number was 48k.  As such, I am not surprised it's 61k and don't see why anyone else should be either.  That said, I am continually surprised by what others are surprised by.

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10 minutes ago, shader said:

Trip Gabriel

@tripgabriel

Allegheny County, PA still has 35,413 uncounted mail-in ballots, but elections staff is taking today off for "administrative work" and will not resume count until Friday. "I can't get an answer as to why,'' says @bethanyhallam, a member of county elections board.

This is ridiculous if true.

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4 minutes ago, FBG26 said:

My favorite part is when she mentions blockchain. As a patent attorney, I can't tell you how many times I ask somebody "so what is new with this idea" and get back "well, we're doing it with blockchain" (and/or AI). 

Obviously this is a huge divergence from the thread topic, but re: the absurdity of blockchain tech I recently saw a statistic that shocked me (but it is definitely true): a single Bitcoin transaction is equal to the power/energy consumption of an average US household over ~25 days. This is a direct result of blockchain as a technology. 

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I don't get why they are talking so much about AZ and GA. Reporters on the ground in those locations and even interviews with local officials. But, PA is all we're really waiting on. It's inevitable. Tell me when PA is projected to finish it's count.

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Just now, dgreen said:

I don't get why they are talking so much about AZ and GA. Reporters on the ground in those locations and even interviews with local officials. But, PA is all we're really waiting on. It's inevitable. Tell me when PA is projected to finish it's count.

They have said Friday all along.  Saw a Secretary of State interview yesterday and they said they were a bit ahead of schedule but wouldn't commit to being done before Friday.  

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17 minutes ago, shader said:

Trip Gabriel

@tripgabriel

Allegheny County, PA still has 35,413 uncounted mail-in ballots, but elections staff is taking today off for "administrative work" and will not resume count until Friday. "I can't get an answer as to why,'' says @bethanyhallam, a member of county elections board.

Poll worker tested positive for COVID, and now they all need to quarantine and get tested?

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1 minute ago, Redwes25 said:

They have said Friday all along.  Saw a Secretary of State interview yesterday and they said they were a bit ahead of schedule but wouldn't commit to being done before Friday.  

Thanks. Hadn't heard that. Allegheny should take the day off.

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