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Georgia: the Battle for the Senate


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6 minutes ago, BroadwayG said:

Ossoff called.

And now up over 27,000 votes and past the automatic recount threshhold.

One would like to think that the events at the U.S. Capitol today have sapped anyone's appetite for mounting more than a symbolic challenge against the GA Senate race results. I guess we'll see.

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Trump came in with the presidency, the senate and the house and over 4 years lost all 3 of them. Sometimes you actually do reap what you sow. 

Before and shortly after the election, I was part of the tiny little sliver of the electorate that wanted to see a Biden victory with the GOP retaining control of the senate.  Basically a return to no

I feel bad for the people who are so gripped with fear, and so afraid of everything, that they would support this man just because he talks tough. He's the biggest coward of them all.

3 hours ago, CletiusMaximus said:

There's a theory that Georgia has been a blue state for some time now, but for a strong, successful voter suppression effort the past decade or so.

I was going to point this out last night but it's not that farfetched that Georgia would vote for Democratic Senators.  Yes, it had been like 20 years but we had Sam Nunn and Max Cleland. 

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3 hours ago, IvanKaramazov said:

My personal guess is that the GOP is now the party of Trump.  I'm not happy about that and I wish it were otherwise, but I think the future of this party belongs to the Kristi Noems of the world, with folks like Josh Hawley and Ted Cruz falling in line because they know that's where their bread is buttered.  Folks like Mitt Romney are either just going to be along for the ride, or they'll be purged. 

Right-libertarians like me just aren't going to have a political home.  Not that I was ever totally comfortable with the Republican party anyway, but definitely not now.  

I'd love to be wrong, but I honestly don't see a lot of reason for optimism.  Republican voters seem all-in on QAnon, OAN, white identity politics, etc. and they'll pull their political leaders in that direction.

What's amazing is you type this up before the craziness of the last 3 hours.  I agree with you.

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9 hours ago, IvanKaramazov said:

I'd love to be wrong, but I honestly don't see a lot of reason for optimism.  Republican voters seem all-in on QAnon, OAN, white identity politics, etc. and they'll pull their political leaders in that direction

I hope that after the disaster of this afternoon, you're very wrong about the GOP.  I hope enough people saw the crazy that Trump has wrought and reject Trumpismo.

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59 minutes ago, The Z Machine said:

I hope that after the disaster of this afternoon, you're very wrong about the GOP.  I hope enough people saw the crazy that Trump has wrought and reject Trumpismo.

IK and I are on the same page with the future of the GOP. I think if anything he is underselling it. The GOP is the people who stormed the Capital. I think most Trump voters watched on TV and were upset that they didn't do more.

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3 minutes ago, Drunken Cowboy said:

IK and I are on the same page with the future of the GOP. I think if anything he is underselling it. The GOP is the people who stormed the Capital. I think most Trump voters watched on TV and were upset that they didn't do more.

I don’t believe this. 
I think there has always been a very distinct difference between Republican voters (who voted for and supported President Trump) and the die hard extremists who attend the rallies. The folks who stormed the capital were the latter. They don’t represent the sympathies of the majority of Republicans. 

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2 minutes ago, timschochet said:

I don’t believe this. 
I think there has always been a very distinct difference between Republican voters (who voted for and supported President Trump) and the die hard extremists who attend the rallies. The folks who stormed the capital were the latter. They don’t represent the sympathies of the majority of Republicans. 

I think this is wishful thinking on your part.  I see no evidence of this.  Nearly 75 million voted for Trump.  Trump's approval among GOP voters is still ridiculously high. The GOP platform this year was Trump.

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5 minutes ago, Drunken Cowboy said:

I think this is wishful thinking on your part.  I see no evidence of this.  Nearly 75 million voted for Trump.  Trump's approval among GOP voters is still ridiculously high. The GOP platform this year was Trump.

Let’s see what that approval rating is after today, or better yet a month from now. 

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17 minutes ago, GroveDiesel said:

https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1347042668564664320?s=20
 

“The president was telling people today that he was happy Loeffler and Perdue lost, according to a person familiar with the conversations. He said they didn't defend him enough.”

It's always about him. 

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32 minutes ago, GroveDiesel said:

https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1347042668564664320?s=20
 

“The president was telling people today that he was happy Loeffler and Perdue lost, according to a person familiar with the conversations. He said they didn't defend him enough.”

I feel bad for the people who are so gripped with fear, and so afraid of everything, that they would support this man just because he talks tough. He's the biggest coward of them all.

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1 minute ago, Yankee23Fan said:

I feel bad for the people who are so gripped with fear, and so afraid of everything, that they would support this man just because he talks tough. He's the biggest coward of them all.

Liberals are out to get him.  Republicans are out to get him.  His own cabinet is out to get him.  The media is out to get him.  Members of his family are out to get him.  Big Tech is out to get him.  Judges he appointed are out to get him.  Bill Barr is the enemy.  Kelly Loeffler, whose entire campaign platform has literally been "I support Trump", didn't support him enough.  Mike Pence is the enemy.  Did I miss anyone (I'm certain I missed a bunch)?

An old saying comes to mind...  If everyone else in the room is an #######, maybe you're the #######.

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50 minutes ago, GroveDiesel said:

https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1347042668564664320?s=20
 

“The president was telling people today that he was happy Loeffler and Perdue lost, according to a person familiar with the conversations. He said they didn't defend him enough.”

If he said anything different it would have been surprising.

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Just now, Osaurus said:

If he said anything different it would have been surprising.

She was going to defend him in the senate voting yesterday.  When they came back last night, she didn’t.  

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15 minutes ago, FairWarning said:

She was going to defend him in the senate voting yesterday.  When they came back last night, she didn’t.  

Do you think he would have said anything different had she won her seat in GA?

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8 hours ago, timschochet said:

Let’s see what that approval rating is after today, or better yet a month from now. 

Trump never got above 50% approval or below 35%. I think his approval will plummet and so will Trump brand in the coming months and years. His only shot in 2024 is for the economy to tank, and even then it would be a long shot. Trump's roles in losing the Senate and the occupation of the Capitol, which led to a tragic death, will not be forgotten. 

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1 hour ago, SoBeDad said:

Trump never got above 50% approval or below 35%. I think his approval will plummet and so will Trump brand in the coming months and years. His only shot in 2024 is for the economy to tank, and even then it would be a long shot. Trump's roles in losing the Senate and the occupation of the Capitol, which led to a tragic death, will not be forgotten. 

This.  I think it also goes for Ivanka and Don Jr. as well.  Jr. could find a safe House District; move there and win.....but he's not getting above minor House member.....and that might not be worth the trouble for him. The Trump brand will be able to muster 25% for the next 10-15 years......but they're done as a serious contender to the POTUS desk.  

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 Fun Fact:

The combined age of Ossoff and Warnock (84) is less than the age of Dianne Feinstein (87).

 

Nice to see some fresh blood in the Senate.

Edited by squistion
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3 hours ago, Osaurus said:

Do you think he would have said anything different had she won her seat in GA?

He probably would have taken the credit for sealing the deal.

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14 hours ago, timschochet said:

Let’s see what that approval rating is after today, or better yet a month from now. 

His approval rating will be meaningless once he's out of office. This constituency that hitched their wagon to his star, because he tells them everything they want to hear, still exists, it's just waiting to be exploited by the next demagogue, and as we can see there are plenty of folks working to fill that role right now.

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I think something interesting comes out of this vote.

The progressives are going to leverage their voting block to try and get things done

the right may be forced to cooperate with the moderate left to get things done not on the progressive agenda

cause this party will get some things done either through the progressive left or the moderate right

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6 hours ago, squistion said:

 Fun Fact:

The combined age of Ossoff and Warnock (84) is less than the age of Dianne Feinstein (87).

 

Nice to see some fresh blood in the Senate.

I've been also saying this for years. Both sides need to get younger with their candidates. At least how about an under of 110?

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18 hours ago, timschochet said:
18 hours ago, Drunken Cowboy said:

I think this is wishful thinking on your part.  I see no evidence of this.  Nearly 75 million voted for Trump.  Trump's approval among GOP voters is still ridiculously high. The GOP platform this year was Trump.

Let’s see what that approval rating is after today, or better yet a month from now. 

Most presidents, even unpopular ones, will see a boost in their approval rating during their lame duck period. Obama went from 53% to 59%; George H.W. Bush went from 34% to 56%; even Carter went from 31% to 34%.

But Trump has gone from 44.6% to 42.4%. Even his detractors won't give him a pity bump. I doubt he drops below 37% by February, though. His base will stay loyal to the end and beyond.

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20 hours ago, Drunken Cowboy said:

IK and I are on the same page with the future of the GOP. I think if anything he is underselling it. The GOP is the people who stormed the Capital. I think most Trump voters watched on TV and were upset that they didn't do more.

I think it's easy if we only have friends who think like us to see that retweet or screenshot of someone's social media postings to make us think those who disagree with us are all backing some extreme vision.

I'm sure you and I don't agree on much of anything but while I'm to the right here, I'm pretty in the middle of the people I know because of where I'm from.  I could never win office where I'm from because I'm not a party person, believe in marriage equality, etc.  I say that to set the context for the people I'm connected with on social media.  I'd guess 75% of the people I'm connected to voted for Trump, supported him to varying degrees.  But of all of them, I haven't heard one person today who thinks they should have gone further.  Now I have a couple hardcore friends who I'm sure are on the same page as Josh Hawley.  It's possible under the surface some feel that way, but I haven't seen it or had anyone vocalize it to me.  Personally I can tell you it was a shameful day and I think most people who voted for Trump were appalled at what occurred.  I hope they identify and prosecute every person involved who broke the law.  

 

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52 minutes ago, Shula-holic said:

I think it's easy if we only have friends who think like us to see that retweet or screenshot of someone's social media postings to make us think those who disagree with us are all backing some extreme vision.

I'm sure you and I don't agree on much of anything but while I'm to the right here, I'm pretty in the middle of the people I know because of where I'm from.  I could never win office where I'm from because I'm not a party person, believe in marriage equality, etc.  I say that to set the context for the people I'm connected with on social media.  I'd guess 75% of the people I'm connected to voted for Trump, supported him to varying degrees.  But of all of them, I haven't heard one person today who thinks they should have gone further.  Now I have a couple hardcore friends who I'm sure are on the same page as Josh Hawley.  It's possible under the surface some feel that way, but I haven't seen it or had anyone vocalize it to me.  Personally I can tell you it was a shameful day and I think most people who voted for Trump were appalled at what occurred.  I hope they identify and prosecute every person involved who broke the law.  

 

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2021/01/07135439/210121_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v1.pdf

 

Digging into cross tabs on how Trump supporters feel is depressing.

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3 minutes ago, Drunken Cowboy said:

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2021/01/07135439/210121_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v1.pdf

 

Digging into cross tabs on how Trump supporters feel is depressing.

447 pages is a lot to digest.  I looked at a couple of the questions and it was pretty accurate I thought.  Are there a couple that stand out to you?  

In general, I don't give a lot of polling of Trump supporters a ton of credit.  I know it's been discussed over and over in these forums.  Beyond their unwillingness to answer polls, those who do often have a good time misleading pollsters or just going with wild answers when they call.  I can say I know people who do that.

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25 minutes ago, Shula-holic said:

447 pages is a lot to digest.  I looked at a couple of the questions and it was pretty accurate I thought.  Are there a couple that stand out to you?  

In general, I don't give a lot of polling of Trump supporters a ton of credit.  I know it's been discussed over and over in these forums.  Beyond their unwillingness to answer polls, those who do often have a good time misleading pollsters or just going with wild answers when they call.  I can say I know people who do that.

Around 215ish are who people feel is responsible for yesterday's action.

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23 hours ago, The Z Machine said:

I hope that after the disaster of this afternoon, you're very wrong about the GOP.  I hope enough people saw the crazy that Trump has wrought and reject Trumpismo.

Nah.  This is like that period after the Access Hollywood tape, when so many 'normal' Republicans felt social guilt for supporting a guy that bragged about sexual assault. Eventually, they all realized that deep down, they were fine with the sexual assault, and they opened up.
This is similar, just gotta give it time for them to look around and realize that they really are fine with this also.

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16 minutes ago, babydemon90 said:

Nah.  This is like that period after the Access Hollywood tape, when so many 'normal' Republicans felt social guilt for supporting a guy that bragged about sexual assault. Eventually, they all realized that deep down, they were fine with the sexual assault, and they opened up.
This is similar, just gotta give it time for them to look around and realize that they really are fine with this also.

I don't think so.  First, there's the unprecedented nature of what happened.  Second, Trump will be out of office so no one needs to be supportive of him (not like before with, "yeah, he's a low class guy, but we need a Republican in the WH").

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51 minutes ago, tri-man 47 said:

I don't think so.  First, there's the unprecedented nature of what happened.  Second, Trump will be out of office so no one needs to be supportive of him (not like before with, "yeah, he's a low class guy, but we need a Republican in the WH").

Trump himself will leave, but 'Trumpismo' isn't. He was always just a symptom, and I dont think anything there has changed.
I hope it's wrong, but we'll see in the 2022 primary midterms I guess.  I expect far more of the Marjorie Greene style Republicans to run and win.

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On 1/6/2021 at 10:44 PM, timschochet said:

Let’s see what that approval rating is after today, or better yet a month from now. 

That it takes orchestrating an assault on our Capitol, in disruption of the election, to move the needle is why I disagree with your take. Not that I even agree it will move the needle below 40%; probably 75% for Republicans. 75 million votes after these past 4 years shocks the conscience.

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12 hours ago, AAABatteries said:

Not everyone was as pleased with the great turnout as I was.

https://www.ajc.com/politics/strict-absentee-voting-limits-proposed-after-record-georgia-turnout/BLDBKKOLCJDU7FWUAM4CPNZ43I/

I know you are all shocked.

Alabama did the same thing when Doug Jones won. They stopped special elections so now the governor chooses replacements outside election season. 

If they really wanted to restrict absentee ballots they should do like Texas and restrict it to those 65 and older. 

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9 hours ago, babydemon90 said:

Trump himself will leave, but 'Trumpismo' isn't. He was always just a symptom, and I dont think anything there has changed.
I hope it's wrong, but we'll see in the 2022 primary midterms I guess.  I expect far more of the Marjorie Greene style Republicans to run and win.

That's probably the scarier scenario...Trump fades away, but left behind is a new wave of Trump-wannabes with all their extremism.  :shudder: 

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7 hours ago, Gachi said:

Alabama did the same thing when Doug Jones won. They stopped special elections so now the governor chooses replacements outside election season. 

If they really wanted to restrict absentee ballots they should do like Texas and restrict it to those 65 and older. 

No they shouldn't. Until election day is a federal holiday that everyone gets paid time off for, there should be universal mail in voting.

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42 minutes ago, the moops said:

No they shouldn't. Until election day is a federal holiday that everyone gets paid time off for, there should be universal mail in voting.

:goodposting:

Although, to be fair - I don't think Gachi was supporting it - more just saying if they want to do it then do it the "right way"

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14 hours ago, Gachi said:

Alabama did the same thing when Doug Jones won. They stopped special elections so now the governor chooses replacements outside election season. 

If they really wanted to restrict absentee ballots they should do like Texas and restrict it to those 65 and older. 

When Sessions became AG, Luther Strange was appointed by then Gov. Bentley.  He was in that seat that Doug Jones eventually won.  There were many reasons Strange lost.  The most resonating to me was the stain from being appointed by a governor who had to resign and then the fact that Roy Moore always has his steady bedrock of support here. 

My memory isn't as great these days and it's been a couple years now, but I think Gov. Ivey scheduled that special election even though she wasn't required to do so at the time.  From my recollection former Gov. Bentley really scolded her in the media for even scheduling that election that led to the whole Jones/Moore situation.  Gov. Ivey chose to have it earlier than she had to.  There was a lot of thought locally that she did so knowing that Roy Moore was itching to get back into state politics and that by throwing this race out front, it would keep him from running against her in her own primary for Governor.  Keep in mind at that time, neither Strange nor Ivey had been elected to the posts they were serving in and she realized the threat Roy Moore would be in a primary against someone who wasn't elected to that seat with his type of messaging.

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7 hours ago, the moops said:

No they shouldn't. Until election day is a federal holiday that everyone gets paid time off for, there should be universal mail in voting.

I'm on board with this.  Make POTUS elections only a Federal Holiday. It's once every four years.  All other elections you can make time during your workday or before.

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4 minutes ago, BladeRunner said:

I'm on board with this.  Make POTUS elections only a Federal Holiday. It's once every four years.  All other elections you can make time during your workday or before.

This seems silly.  Either voting is important or it isn't.  My vote is far less likely to matter in the POTUS election than in more local races.  Senate and House positions aren't important enough that we should vote?  Governor and mayor aren't important enough?

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Perdue conceded today.  I assume Loeffler conceded earlier this week.  So, GA ought to be able to certify these results quickly, and then Ossoff and Warnock can be sworn in as Senators.

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30 minutes ago, Rich Conway said:

This seems silly.  Either voting is important or it isn't.  My vote is far less likely to matter in the POTUS election than in more local races.  Senate and House positions aren't important enough that we should vote?  Governor and mayor aren't important enough?

Good point.  Make it all elections!  :thumbup:

However, I still want a standard set of rules across the board that we can all agree on (for POTUS only).  

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7 minutes ago, BladeRunner said:

Good point.  Make it all elections!  :thumbup:

However, I still want a standard set of rules across the board that we can all agree on (for POTUS only).  

Doesn't that fly in the face of states' rights?

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25 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

Perdue conceded today.  I assume Loeffler conceded earlier this week.  So, GA ought to be able to certify these results quickly, and then Ossoff and Warnock can be sworn in as Senators.

Each county has until next Friday to certify, so it may be a while.

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3 minutes ago, Rich Conway said:

Doesn't that fly in the face of states' rights?

At least for congressional elections, congress has the power to "make or alter" rules.   The purpose, though, is exactly the opposite.   Rather than suppress votes by imposing a voter ID requirement or other roadblocks to voting, the elections clause was drafted to prevent states from enacting unfair laws that would suppress voting or favor certain candidates.  No such authority exists for presidential elections. 

I used to think election day should be a holiday, but now I just think all voting should be done by mail.   

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