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Race for the 2020 MVP award


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Still feels like it is Russell Wilson's to lose, since he has the media narrative on his side, but he needs to stop throwing picks or it could hurt his chances.  8 now in 8 games, while Mahomes, his strongest competition, only has 1.  Of course, Wilson is playing on a team with a horrific defense and it goes without saying at this point that the team would playing for a top 10 overall pick in the draft without Wilson, as opposed to fighting for the 1 seed with him.  The greatness of Mahomes goes without saying, which could hurt his chances, ala LeBron James, as it feels like many are already taking his greatness for granted. 

Rodgers probably rounds out the top 3, but his growing reputation for being a frontrunner does not help his chances. A few comeback wins against good teams would certainly help. 

Not sure who else is close to be in the conversation. Maybe Kamara, but it's hard to imagine the voters giving much support to a dual threat RB who doesn't dominate the way RB's traditionally do.   Brady and Roethlisberger are obviously very valuable to their teams, but neither is playing well enough from week to week to really be serious candidates at this point, but that could change in Brady's case (but not Ben's, as this is just who he is).  Derrick Henry and Josh Allen deserve cursory mentions as well, I suppose. 

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It takes an absolutely ridiculous statistical season for a RB to win it over a QB. Also if you're going to give it to an RB...  Cook: 1031 Yards, 13 TD's (in 7 games) Kamara: 1036 Yards, 8 TD's (

Patrick Mahomes

Gap widens as yet another top team goes down. Puts up 32 against an elite D who made him earn every yard. Saint's D was ferocious today, and put some serious hits on Mahomes, who was scrambling around

1 minute ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Kyler deserves to be mentioned, at the very least.  He's putting up crazy numbers every week and his team is still 5-3.

Good call.  I don't see the Cardinals play much, and I don't have him on any of my FF teams (darn it), so I zoned out on him when thinking of possible winners. 

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Russ has been the clear favourite all year but it's slipping.  I don't think Kyler is much in the running just due to team record.  I can't see him winning it if they don't win the div.

I still see Russ with a very slight lead on Mahomes now with Rodgers on their heals.

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Kyler record is one game behind Russ. If Russ is in it Kyler is in it. He has the head to head and the division is still up for grabs. If Kylers kicker wouldn't have shorted a 49 yard FG they might have the same record 

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9 minutes ago, SproutDaddy said:

Kamara should be in the front.

It takes an absolutely ridiculous statistical season for a RB to win it over a QB.

Also if you're going to give it to an RB... 
Cook: 1031 Yards, 13 TD's (in 7 games)
Kamara: 1036 Yards, 8 TD's (in 8 games)

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4 minutes ago, jbz said:

Kyler record is one game behind Russ. If Russ is in it Kyler is in it. He has the head to head and the division is still up for grabs. If Kylers kicker wouldn't have shorted a 49 yard FG they might have the same record 

I don't get the Kyler over Russ scenario.  EVEN if you take out the record thing (which is important), Kyler's stats aren't up to Russ's.  What does Kyler have that Russ doesn't?

Russ 2806 yards 29 TDs (all purpose)
Kyler 2673 yards  24 TDs (all purpose)

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As a lifelong Bears fan, it pains me to say it, but I'd vote for Rodgers right now. Wilson would probably be my 2nd choice, and Mahomes 3rd. I don't think any non-QB has an argument over any of them. 

Among non-QBs, despite missing time with injury(I don't think 16 games should matter) I'd lean Davante Adams. Offensive player of the year perhaps? 

A guy who obviously isn't a candidate, but deserves special mention as lapping the field at his position, I'd shout out Travis Kelce as well. Who is somewhat quietly on pace for 100-1300-10. That might be more of the fantasy MVP(VBD anyway) than anything though.

As for a defensive candidate, I kinda want to say Jaire Alexander. The Packers are kind of like the Manning-era Colts, in that they are less a great team, and more a few great players, carrying a mediocre roster. I think TJ Watt is a solid candidate, as well as Aaron Donald, though I think people are getting bored of Donald for whatever reason.

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3 minutes ago, travdogg said:

As a lifelong Bears fan, it pains me to say it, but I'd vote for Rodgers right now. Wilson would probably be my 2nd choice, and Mahomes 3rd. I don't think any non-QB has an argument over any of them. 

Among non-QBs, despite missing time with injury(I don't think 16 games should matter) I'd lean Davante Adams. Offensive player of the year perhaps? 

A guy who obviously isn't a candidate, but deserves special mention as lapping the field at his position, I'd shout out Travis Kelce as well. Who is somewhat quietly on pace for 100-1300-10. That might be more of the fantasy MVP(VBD anyway) than anything though.

As for a defensive candidate, I kinda want to say Jaire Alexander. The Packers are kind of like the Manning-era Colts, in that they are less a great team, and more a few great players, carrying a mediocre roster. I think TJ Watt is a solid candidate, as well as Aaron Donald, though I think people are getting bored of Donald for whatever reason.

Great list, agree with most.

Remember though, the award is all about Team Record and Stats.  Wilson has Rodgers in both of these statistics (tied in record but has better stats).  You're probably right to say that Rodgets may be more valuable to his team and is playing with less weapons.... but unfortunately that's not how the voting works for this.

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1 minute ago, Deamon said:

Great list, agree with most.

Remember though, the award is all about Team Record and Stats.  Wilson has Rodgers in both of these statistics (tied in record but has better stats).  You're probably right to say that Rodgets may be more valuable to his team and is playing with less weapons.... but unfortunately that's not how the voting works for this.

Agreed. I was actually arguing Wilson over Jackson last year for similar reasoning.

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Mahomes, Wilson, and Rodgers are in a pretty tight race at the top. For the games so far I'd give it to Mahomes, but I think Wilson might have a slight edge in the voting.

I'd put Josh Allen next. Other guys like Brady, Murray, and Lamar Jackson still have a shot because there are enough games left for lots of things to happen.

It usually is a QB, and usually should be a QB, and the top QBs are looking really good this year, so it would be tough for a non-QB to come away with it this year.

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I think it would be cool to see a Cook or Kamara or Davante have a shot.  Putting up some pretty crazy numbers...

Davante has no shot though...because if he keeps putting up these numbers, it likely means Rodgers is as well and its just too easy to give it to a QB.

As of now...I think its Wilson with Rodgers and Mahomes right there behind him.

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9 hours ago, Deamon said:

It takes an absolutely ridiculous statistical season for a RB to win it over a QB.

Also if you're going to give it to an RB... 
Cook: 1031 Yards, 13 TD's (in 7 games)
Kamara: 1036 Yards, 8 TD's (in 8 games)

I agree with the 1st part and while Cook is putting up some big numbers one guys team is 3-5 and the others is 6-2. If QBs are held in part by W/L records than it should hold some weight here. Kamara was all they had on offense for a few games as well due to injuries. Minnesota has at least had Thielen and Jefferson all year from what I'm aware. 

It's a moot point anyways. Wilson/Rodgers/Mahomes will win. 

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Just now, farfromforgotten said:

I agree with the 1st part and while Cook is putting up some big numbers one guys team is 3-5 and the others is 6-2. If QBs are held in part by W/L records than it should hold some weight here. Kamara was all they had on offense for a few games as well due to injuries. Minnesota has at least had Thielen and Jefferson all year from what I'm aware. 

It's a moot point anyways. Wilson/Rodgers/Mahomes will win. 

Agree. What I kinda meant is that for a rb to win his numbers need to be insane. Kamara's numbers aren't even the best in the league for a rb. 

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17 hours ago, Deamon said:

It takes an absolutely ridiculous statistical season for a RB to win it over a QB.

Also if you're going to give it to an RB... 
Cook: 1031 Yards, 13 TD's (in 7 games)
Kamara: 1036 Yards, 8 TD's (in 8 games)

I'm fully aware of the probability of a RB winning.  The point of my post is that he has been the Saints offense.  Not really seeing how Cook could fit into the conversation considering MN's record at this point.

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1 hour ago, SproutDaddy said:

I'm fully aware of the probability of a RB winning.  The point of my post is that he has been the Saints offense.  Not really seeing how Cook could fit into the conversation considering MN's record at this point.

Just saying that to give it to a RB whose stats are pretty distant 2nd place to another RB in the league is not gonna happen.

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17 hours ago, SproutDaddy said:

I'm fully aware of the probability of a RB winning.  The point of my post is that he has been the Saints offense.  Not really seeing how Cook could fit into the conversation considering MN's record at this point.

MN's next four opponents are CHI, DAL, CAR, JAX. I would not be surprised at all if they're 7-5 and if they do win the next four you can probably bet a large part of that will be Dalvin Cook running wild on everyone.

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On 11/9/2020 at 5:06 PM, Deamon said:

Just saying that to give it to a RB whose stats are pretty distant 2nd place to another RB in the league is not gonna happen.

Distant?

 

#1 in all purpose yards

#1 in receiving yards by a RB

#2 in 1st downs

#3 in TDs

I'd say he's the best RB stat wise so far.

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Just now, SproutDaddy said:

Distant?

 

#1 in all purpose yards- BY 5 YARDS in one extra game played

#1 in receiving yards by a RB... Why is this more important than rushing yards?  You left that out... He's 20th in rushing yards per game.

#2 in 1st downs

#3 in TDs ... He's not even top 5 in RB TD's Per Game and is substantially behind Cook even while playing more games.

I'd say he's the best RB stat wise so far.

This might be the worst stat cherry picking I've ever seen.

Cook beats Kamara in yards per game AND TD's per game.  Sure I'll give you the 1st down one, but you're crazy if you're saying Kamara is better than Cook stat wise simply because of first downs per game.

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With all the talk early in the year of Wilson never getting a vote, they will be looking to give it to him biased on career body of work. 
 

There will also be bias on him leading so much early in the year. It will take significantly better stats from someone else to take it. 

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It seems silly to have a "most valuable QB or RB" award. The QB is by far the most important guy on the field. The RB is just another position. The one thing they have in common is they both touch the ball a lot - that plays into how much attention they get from fans, but it is not that linked to value.

It would be interesting if there was a "most valuable non-QB" award which was spread among the other positions. Candidates this year include Aaron Donald, Travis Kelce, TJ Watt, Davante Adams, Dalvin Cook, Trent Williams, and some others.

It also wouldn't be crazy if the MVP award went to the most valuable QB half the time (or 3/4 of the time or whatever) and to the most valuable non-QB the rest of the time, spread out among other positions (which would happen in years when no QB especially stood out and some non-QB and a huge year). That is aiming somewhere in between "best player relative to others at his position" and "player who adds the most total value to his team", which seems like a reasonable way to assign the top award. But if you're only looking at RBs among the non-QBs (as the AP has done over the past 30 years) that doesn't really make sense.

This season three QBs are each doing enough to keep the award out of the hands of the non-QBs, IMO, so the question of which non-QB is most valuable is a moot point (unless Mahomes, Wilson, and Rodgers are struggle down the stretch and no other QB steps up - not likely).

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51 minutes ago, Deamon said:

This might be the worst stat cherry picking I've ever seen.

Cook beats Kamara in yards per game AND TD's per game.  Sure I'll give you the 1st down one, but you're crazy if you're saying Kamara is better than Cook stat wise simply because of first downs per game.

Just saying there's a case dude.  It's an opinion, and I know a RB will never win it.  No need to get bent out of shape.  Neither you or I will have any influence on who wins the award.

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Just now, SproutDaddy said:

Just saying there's a case dude.  It's an opinion, and I know a RB will never win it.  No need to get bent out of shape.  Neither you or I will have any influence on who wins the award.

lol I'm not bent out of shape.  It's just not really an opinion when Cook is beating him in almost every category.

But yes, neither is winning MVP so it's moot.

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I can't see Wilson being the favorite anymore. Too many turnovers the last two weeks and the Seahawks are now in 3rd place in their division (due to tiebreakers).

Feels like Mahomes should now be the big favorite, with Rodgers still in the top 3 and Murray pushing Wilson for that 3rd spot. 

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Through week 10 now, I personally have Rodgers as a clear favorite. He's playing as well as he has ever played(adjusted for supporting cast) and has his team currently as the #1 seed in the NFC. 

Other than the 1 game against TB, Rodgers has at least 60% completions, 2 TD's, and over 100 pass rating in every game this season, with only 1 INT.

Career wise, Rodgers has the 2nd highest completion %, 2nd highest TD per game, and 2nd highest passer rating(which is 1st in the NFL so far this year) despite having a far inferior supporting cast to the 2011 team, which had Nelson, Jennings, Finley, Jones, Driver, Cobb as his weapons. 2011 was also an outlier season for passing as there were 3 5000 yard passers. 

I think Rodgers is pretty clearly # right now. 2 is an argument, and one that doesn't involve Kyler Murray or Ben Roethlisberger in my opinion.

 

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Murray is having an historic season, if you include his rushing yards and rushing TDs. And he had the most memorable play of the year which included a tremendous scramble to get off the pass at all. I'd rate it a toss up between Murray and Rodgers at this time. Murray is both the running game and the passing game, while Rodgers has a good oline, great LT,  and superior RBs supporting him. Jones will get a big contract next year.

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On 11/15/2020 at 7:54 PM, sho nuff said:

Yeah Russ and the turnovers lately are dropping him.

Like a rock.

The LetRussCook fandom is starting to lose steam.  He's a Hall of Fame quarterback, but he's not a one-man show capable of carrying a team by himself.  To be anything close to the MVP he needs a viable running game.  Probably time for Sunshine Pete to fire up Chris Carson a bit.  I'm sure Wilson's MVP talk will heat up again after back-to-back games against the New York teams in a few weeks, but I just don't think he's teh guy this season.

Patrick Mahomes is the answer - he's the best player, at the most important position, playing the best.  ARod and a few others deserve mention, but if Mahomes continues to do what he's been doing, that's the 2020 NFL MVP.

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10 minutes ago, trader jake said:

Like a rock.

The LetRussCook fandom is starting to lose steam.  He's a Hall of Fame quarterback, but he's not a one-man show capable of carrying a team by himself.  To be anything close to the MVP he needs a viable running game.  Probably time for Sunshine Pete to fire up Chris Carson a bit.  I'm sure Wilson's MVP talk will heat up again after back-to-back games against the New York teams in a few weeks, but I just don't think he's teh guy this season.

Patrick Mahomes is the answer - he's the best player, at the most important position, playing the best.  ARod and a few others deserve mention, but if Mahomes continues to do what he's been doing, that's the 2020 NFL MVP.

How could I forget about Mahomes? Rodgers and Murray are still contenders with 7 games left.

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19 minutes ago, trader jake said:

Like a rock.

The LetRussCook fandom is starting to lose steam.  He's a Hall of Fame quarterback, but he's not a one-man show capable of carrying a team by himself.  To be anything close to the MVP he needs a viable running game.  Probably time for Sunshine Pete to fire up Chris Carson a bit.  I'm sure Wilson's MVP talk will heat up again after back-to-back games against the New York teams in a few weeks, but I just don't think he's teh guy this season.

Patrick Mahomes is the answer - he's the best player, at the most important position, playing the best.  ARod and a few others deserve mention, but if Mahomes continues to do what he's been doing, that's the 2020 NFL MVP.

Media seems to still be on Russ...excusing some of it due to his defense being poor.  (Rodgers says hi).

 

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On 11/13/2020 at 5:19 PM, The Duff Man said:

With all the talk early in the year of Wilson never getting a vote, they will be looking to give it to him biased on career body of work. 
 

There will also be bias on him leading so much early in the year. It will take significantly better stats from someone else to take it. 

If any actual voters give it to Russ and cite "body of work" as the reason why, then they should be stripped of their vote.  Not saying Russ doesn't deserve it this year, he's definitely top 2 in my opinion, but if body of work was ever a relevant consideration then Brees would have one

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1 hour ago, SoBeDad said:

Murray is having an historic season, if you include his rushing yards and rushing TDs. And he had the most memorable play of the year which included a tremendous scramble to get off the pass at all. I'd rate it a toss up between Murray and Rodgers at this time. Murray is both the running game and the passing game, while Rodgers has a good oline, great LT,  and superior RBs supporting him. Jones will get a big contract next year.

If he beats Russ tomorrow night(again) I don't see how he's any worse than #3 on anybody's list.  

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If the Saints go 4-0 the next four weeks, then the award should go to Alvin Kamara.  Here's the reason I say this: If you look at their schedule for the next four weeks, they're all winnable games.  They host Atlanta this week, then the next three game are on the road against the Broncos, Falcons, & Eagles.  That's probably the easiest road schedule for any team in the league this season.  That should give Drew Brees plenty of time to come back for the Saints' biggest game of the year, which is the Week 15 Super Bowl preview against the Chiefs.  The Saints are definitely going to need Brees to have a chance to beat the Chiefs that day.  But, like I said the the next four games for the Saints will be key if Kamara or Patrick Mahomes wins MVP.  I think Aaron Rodgers struggles this week against the Colts' defense, which is one of the best in the league, so that eliminates him.  I see Kamara running for at least 150 yards apiece in the next four games.

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28 minutes ago, Yogibear said:

If the Saints go 4-0 the next four weeks, then the award should go to Alvin Kamara.  Here's the reason I say this: If you look at their schedule for the next four weeks, they're all winnable games.  They host Atlanta this week, then the next three game are on the road against the Broncos, Falcons, & Eagles.  That's probably the easiest road schedule for any team in the league this season.  That should give Drew Brees plenty of time to come back for the Saints' biggest game of the year, which is the Week 15 Super Bowl preview against the Chiefs.  The Saints are definitely going to need Brees to have a chance to beat the Chiefs that day.  But, like I said the the next four games for the Saints will be key if Kamara or Patrick Mahomes wins MVP.  I think Aaron Rodgers struggles this week against the Colts' defense, which is one of the best in the league, so that eliminates him.  I see Kamara running for at least 150 yards apiece in the next four games.

Again, Kamara isn't going to win it unless he is far ahead of the next best RB in terms of stats.  As of now he's not even #1.  Hate how the voting is done all you want, but Kamara's stats have not been even remotely close to dominant enough to win him the MVP award.

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1 hour ago, IHEARTFF said:

I think it currently sits at 

1. Mahomes

2. Rodgers

gap

3. Murray

4. Wilson

5. Allen

6. Tannehill

7. Brees

worth a mention Ben, Brady, Watson, Herbert, Carr, Cook, Kamara

Why Murray over Wilson?  Same record, and Wilson has better stats.

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Just now, SoBeDad said:

Murray beat Wilson the first time. Add in Murray's running TDs and it's close.

Head to head has absolutely zero to do with it.

Yes it is CLOSE, but he is still behind in Yards and TDs.  I'm not saying it's not close, just wondering if there is a single small point to have Murray above Wilson as I can't find one.

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Just now, Deamon said:

Head to head has absolutely zero to do with it.

Yes it is CLOSE, but he is still behind in Yards and TDs.  I'm not saying it's not close, just wondering if there is a single small point to have Murray above Wilson as I can't find one.

Recency bias will play a role in how people vote. That's probably in play here. Wilson had a start that compared with Manning's great season. If it were reversed, and Wilson had his 2 bad games early, Wilson would be way ahead of Murray in everyone's mind. It should be an exciting 7 games to close the season and I'm actually rooting for Wilson since he's on my FF team.

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Just now, SoBeDad said:

Recency bias will play a role in how people vote. That's probably in play here. Wilson had a start that compared with Manning's great season. If it were reversed, and Wilson had his 2 bad games early, Wilson would be way ahead of Murray in everyone's mind. It should be an exciting 7 games to close the season and I'm actually rooting for Wilson since he's on my FF team.

Ya probably.  But this award isn't really subjective.  I mean... it is, but that's not how it's voted on.  It's not most 'valuable' to his team, it's not 'oh that rb was the whole team", and it's not "he had less weapons". 

It's usually the best statistical year from the best qb and your team record is very important.

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After today, it is clear that D. Henry is the RB most worthy of being in this conversation.  Two game-winning touchdowns in overtime wins is the tiebreaker in giving him the edge over Kamara (D. Cook is on a 4-6 team and no longer a serious contender). 

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11 minutes ago, Ghost Rider said:

After today, it is clear that D. Henry is the RB most worthy of being in this conversation.  Two game-winning touchdowns in overtime wins is the tiebreaker in giving him the edge over Kamara (D. Cook is on a 4-6 team and no longer a serious contender). 

Yes. But unless he goes on a complete tear the rest of the season (like 2k yards or 29 TD) he won't get many votes even though he deserves them.

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The answer is Big Ben.

I mean last year the Steelers go 8-8 after Ben gets hurt early in the year.  QB play was below average in 2019 and that’s being kind.

Steelers currently 10-0 and really didn’t get anybody in the off-season to make them better.  I won’t argue if you call out Claypool as a value-add new addition. 

I know some of the players listed have better stats. I get it.  But seriously, who is really more valuable right now to their team than Big Ben? 

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6 minutes ago, Max55 said:

The answer is Big Ben.

I mean last year the Steelers go 8-8 after Ben gets hurt early in the year.  QB play was below average in 2019 and that’s being kind.

Steelers currently 10-0 and really didn’t get anybody in the off-season to make them better.  I won’t argue if you call out Claypool as a value-add new addition. 

I know some of the players listed have better stats. I get it.  But seriously, who is really more valuable right now to their team than Big Ben? 

But many of these teams would probably stink without their franchise QB.  GB, KC, Seattle, etc.  MVP will come down to record and stats and Ben is only superior in one of those categories.  And the Steelers defense has a lot to do with that.  
 

This does not take away anything from Ben.  How he’s changed his style of play as he’s aged is nothing short of amazing.  

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