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Race for the 2020 MVP award


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It takes an absolutely ridiculous statistical season for a RB to win it over a QB. Also if you're going to give it to an RB...  Cook: 1031 Yards, 13 TD's (in 7 games) Kamara: 1036 Yards, 8 TD's (

Patrick Mahomes

Gap widens as yet another top team goes down. Puts up 32 against an elite D who made him earn every yard. Saint's D was ferocious today, and put some serious hits on Mahomes, who was scrambling around

1 hour ago, fred_1_15301 said:

But many of these teams would probably stink without their franchise QB.  GB, KC, Seattle, etc.  MVP will come down to record and stats and Ben is only superior in one of those categories.  And the Steelers defense has a lot to do with that.  
 

This does not take away anything from Ben.  How he’s changed his style of play as he’s aged is nothing short of amazing.  

Your response is logical. 

Even though Pittsburgh is 10-0 I don’t think that they are the best team.  But I do think Ben is the most valuable member of the team with the best record and why I would vote for him for MVP if the vote were today. 

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54 minutes ago, Max55 said:

Your response is logical. 

Even though Pittsburgh is 10-0 I don’t think that they are the best team.  But I do think Ben is the most valuable member of the team with the best record and why I would vote for him for MVP if the vote were today. 

I think you can make a pretty good case that Pittsburgh is in fact the best team in football.  The defense probably has more impact playmakers than any other defense in the league and the offense is efficient with several good playmakers and a smart QB.  The special teams is also pretty good.  Very few glaring weaknesses.  I think this team could hold their own against KC (and certainly any other team in the league).  

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11 minutes ago, IHEARTFF said:

Ben has played very well as have the Steelers, but he's nowhere near the mvp at this point. Somewhat related, the Steelers schedule has been uh pretty soft.

They have had a soft schedule but they pass the eye test as a team that should do well in the playoffs.  They have a very good defense and special teams.  They have a very experienced QB and coach with some young, playmaker WRs.  Yes they've beaten up on a lot of weak teams but they also do have 3 impressive wins against Tennessee, Baltimore and Cleveland.  

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7 minutes ago, fred_1_15301 said:

They have had a soft schedule but they pass the eye test as a team that should do well in the playoffs.  They have a very good defense and special teams.  They have a very experienced QB and coach with some young, playmaker WRs.  Yes they've beaten up on a lot of weak teams but they also do have 3 impressive wins against Tennessee, Baltimore and Cleveland.  

For sure, they are a very tough team. a KC Pit AFC title game would be very interesting stuff.

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3 hours ago, Max55 said:

The answer is Big Ben.

I mean last year the Steelers go 8-8 after Ben gets hurt early in the year.  QB play was below average in 2019 and that’s being kind.

Steelers currently 10-0 and really didn’t get anybody in the off-season to make them better.  I won’t argue if you call out Claypool as a value-add new addition. 

I know some of the players listed have better stats. I get it.  But seriously, who is really more valuable right now to their team than Big Ben? 

Mahomes
R Wilson
Rodgers
K Murray
D Henry
Brady

I might be comfortable with putting Ben in 7th place, but I'd have to think about it. 
 

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34 minutes ago, Ghost Rider said:

Mahomes
R Wilson
Rodgers
K Murray
D Henry
Brady

I might be comfortable with putting Ben in 7th place, but I'd have to think about it. 
 

Yet you're "comfortable" putting Brady 6?  Show me your work.  What has Brady done to deserve being ranked above Ben this year?

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13 minutes ago, fred_1_15301 said:

Yet you're "comfortable" putting Brady 6?  Show me your work.  What has Brady done to deserve being ranked above Ben this year?

Look, has Ben ever tried to convince the refs that it was still 4th down after a failed 4th down conversion?  No? Just shows the true fighting spirit Tom has, that is the kind of MVP caliber play that doesnt show on the stat sheet.

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7 hours ago, fred_1_15301 said:

Yet you're "comfortable" putting Brady 6?  Show me your work.  What has Brady done to deserve being ranked above Ben this year?

Fine, I’ll put Ben 6th and Brady 7th. Happy? ;)  I’m not gonna quibble about 6th vs 7th place in regards to a guy (Ben) who isn’t a serious mvp candidate according to the Vegas odds. When Ben gets one of the five best odds to win it this year, then I’ll entertain him as a serious contender. Deal?

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4 minutes ago, Ghost Rider said:

Fine, I’ll put Ben 6th and Brady 7th. Happy? ;)  I’m not gonna quibble about 6th vs 7th place in regards to a guy (Ben) who isn’t a serious mvp candidate according to the Vegas odds. When Ben gets one of the five best odds to win it this year, then I’ll entertain him as a serious contender. Deal?

I agree that neither is a real contender (I said as much earlier about Ben).  Given that you listed Brady (and not Ben) in top 6 and said you might be comfortable putting Ben 7, my interpretation from your post was that Brady was on a tier above Ben.  No big deal.  

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5 hours ago, Ghost Rider said:

Fine, I’ll put Ben 6th and Brady 7th. Happy? ;)  I’m not gonna quibble about 6th vs 7th place in regards to a guy (Ben) who isn’t a serious mvp candidate according to the Vegas odds. When Ben gets one of the five best odds to win it this year, then I’ll entertain him as a serious contender. Deal?

If you’re using Vegas odds as your barometer then Henry comes off the list. 

Henry isn’t even top 10 in regards to odds.

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1 hour ago, Max55 said:

If you’re using Vegas odds as your barometer then Henry comes off the list. 

Henry isn’t even top 10 in regards to odds.

Not surprised.  A RB has to have an all-time great season to win the MVP.  

So yeah, I will take Henry off the list.  

If the list is only players that have a realistic shot to win it right now, barring a massive change, then it's Mahomes, Wilson, Rodgers and Murray.  Ben is not on that list. 

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2 hours ago, Ghost Rider said:

Not surprised.  A RB has to have an all-time great season to win the MVP.  

So yeah, I will take Henry off the list.  

If the list is only players that have a realistic shot to win it right now, barring a massive change, then it's Mahomes, Wilson, Rodgers and Murray.  Ben is not on that list. 

I wouldn't rule out Tom Brady. Especially if Tampa takes the 1 seed. I think he's got a better shot than Murray to be honest. I think Rodgers is the favorite right now.

While he won't win the MVP, and is highly unlikely to make the playoffs without winning out, I think its worth noting that Deshaun Watson is the best player in the NFL in my opinion, since Bill O'Brien was fired. A 15-2 TD/INT ratio, over 100 passer rating in every game except one that was in such bad weather it was delayed by almost an hour, and also being his team's leading rusher.

 

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3 hours ago, fred_1_15301 said:

Brady isn't even sniffing top 5 in the MVP race as of right now.  If you're going to include Brady in the conversation, then Big Ben also belongs there because he's been better.   :shrug: 

Brady leads the league in illegal forward pass completion yardage.

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26 minutes ago, need2know said:

what about cook?

I can't see a case for any RB. Especially one on a losing team.

For me, as of now it goes:

Rodgers>Wilson>Mahomes. I think there is a clear drop off after those 3.

For offensive player of the year, I think I'd make a case for Travis Kelce, not sure a TE ever won, but he or Adams would be my pick. Probably unlikely to have an MVP and offensive player of the year on the same team though. The really interesting thing with Kelce, is that in addition to being arguably the top pass catcher in the NFL(regardless of position) he's become an elite blocker all of a sudden. 

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Mahomes & Rodgers pulling away from the rest of the QBs. A few leaderboards:

QB
ANY/A: Mahomes, Rodgers, Watson, Carr, Tannehill
DVOA: Mahomes, Rodgers, Carr, Tannehill, Brees
DYAR: Mahomes, Rodgers, Tannehill, Watson, Carr
EPA: Mahomes, J Allen, Rodgers, Murray, Carr
QBR: Mahomes, Rodgers, Brees, Carr, J Allen
PFF Grade: Rodgers, Wilson, Mahomes, Watson, Brady

Team Offense
OSRS: SEA, KC, TB, GB, LV
EPA: KC, TEN, GB, LV, SEA
Off DVOA: KC, GB, TEN, SEA, NO
Pts per drive: KC, GB, SEA, LV, BUF
Yds per drive: KC, NE, GB, LV, TEN

Carr LV, Tannehill TEN, and Wilson SEA are the players/teams that are showing up most often after the top 2.

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5 hours ago, Faust said:

You don’t say?

“Entering Thursday's game against the Baltimore Ravens (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC) and reigning MVP Lamar Jackson, Roethlisberger has the fifth-best odds at +1800 for this year's MVP award, according to Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill. He trails favorite Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson (+300), Aaron Rodgers (+450) and Kyler Murray (+1500).”

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17 hours ago, travdogg said:

Any vote for comeback player of the year that isn't for Alex Smith should be thrown out.

The Comeback Player of the Year award is probably the least "stat based" award given.  Alex Smith's ability to even play is a perfect example, and his stats are secondary.  Years from now few will remember how many games he played or touchdowns he threw, but most will remember that injury and his perseverance to play again.

 

Also, Patrick Mahomes is still the MVP barring injury.  Props to Aaron Rodgers and a few others on great seasons.

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Does quality of opponent ever factor into these discussions?  
 

The Bills have played only two teams that have fewer than 6 wins, one of which is the Pats. Allen’s combined numbers are not far off the others. 
 

He gets hurt big time because his D gave up that Hail Murray. If the lasting impression of that game is his final minute beautiful TD pass to Diggs to move the Bills to 8-2, I bet he is higher up some lists. 

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11 hours ago, The Duff Man said:

Does quality of opponent ever factor into these discussions?  
 

The Bills have played only two teams that have fewer than 6 wins, one of which is the Pats. Allen’s combined numbers are not far off the others. 
 

He gets hurt big time because his D gave up that Hail Murray. If the lasting impression of that game is his final minute beautiful TD pass to Diggs to move the Bills to 8-2, I bet he is higher up some lists. 

I think he also gets hurt by many not having high expectations for him coming into the season and many seemingly not buying into his hot start.  Unfair?  Probably, but it is hard to overcome that perception.   Realistically, he should be higher on the list than Murray when you look more at it more closely.  I can't say he is top 3 since Mahomes, Wilson and Rodgers are the top 3 by a pretty big margin, IMO, and the current odds reflect that, but Allen deserves a little more love for sure. 

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16 hours ago, The Duff Man said:

Does quality of opponent ever factor into these discussions? 

Some of the stats that I posted are adjusted for quality of opponent: DVOA, DYAR, QBR, OSRS, Off DVOA.

Josh Allen BUF only makes the top 5 in one of those stats (5th in QBR).

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1 hour ago, sho nuff said:

Id say Rodgers is still "close".  While its Mahomes to lose...Rodgers doesn't appear to be going away.

 

Aside from the putrid performance against Tampa Bay, Rodgers has been very consistent. I still think there is sizable gap between the two.  

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5 hours ago, sho nuff said:

Id say Rodgers is still "close".  While its Mahomes to lose...Rodgers doesn't appear to be going away.

 

 

4 hours ago, FGITLOTR said:

Aside from the putrid performance against Tampa Bay, Rodgers has been very consistent. I still think there is sizable gap between the two.  

I suppose its close, but Mahomes has the edge for sure.

Mahomes 3700 yards 32 tds, 3 turnovers, 10-1 record
Rodgers 3200 yards 34 tds, 6 turnovers, 8-3 record

With only 5 games left, it will be hard for Rodgers to catch Mahomes' numbers.

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I'd still vote Rodgers over Mahomes. He's doing about as much, with quite a bit less talent around him. 

Its a 3 man race in my eyes. I think Wilson is still in play, if he finishes hot enough. There is still about 30% of the season to go, a lot can happen. 

 

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3 minutes ago, travdogg said:

I'd still vote Rodgers over Mahomes. He's doing about as much, with quite a bit less talent around him. 

Its a 3 man race in my eyes. I think Wilson is still in play, if he finishes hot enough. There is still about 30% of the season to go, a lot can happen. 

 

Unfortunately irrelevant per voters.

Depends if this thread is based on who you THINK should win the MVP if YOU were a voter, or who you think will/should win it based on how the votes are done.

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12 minutes ago, Deamon said:

I think both are deserving.  But I think Smith is going to win it based on what he went through and his incredible story.

Agreed - had circumstances been different Smith would be been riding the pine & would have been a nice story while Roethlisberger ran away with CPOY. 

But the way things broke (no pun intended) it’s now Smith and it isn’t close because of the story & how unlikely it was for him keep the leg, much less to come back & play well. 

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1 minute ago, Deamon said:

Unfortunately irrelevant per voters.

Depends if this thread is based on who you THINK should win the MVP if YOU were a voter, or who you think will/should win it based on how the votes are done.

I go based on what I think were I a voter.

Though, just going by stats, Rodgers does have more TD passes than Mahomes. Wilson is tied in 1 fewer game(I'm going to assume he'll have at least 1 against the Eagles tonight) 

Certainly don't see any reason anyone can call Mahomes a no-brainer right now.

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6 minutes ago, travdogg said:

I'd still vote Rodgers over Mahomes. He's doing about as much, with quite a bit less talent around him. 

Its a 3 man race in my eyes. I think Wilson is still in play, if he finishes hot enough. There is still about 30% of the season to go, a lot can happen. 

 

But you're right that it's a 3 man race and no one else comes into play (maybe Ben if they go undefeated but I still don't think so)

As for weapons, I would put them on par.

Adams > Hill (barely)
Tonyon << Kelce (by a lot)
Jones > CEH (close)
WIlliams > Bell (close)
GBP Oline > KC Oline (close)

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1 minute ago, travdogg said:

Though, just going by stats, Rodgers does have more TD passes than Mahomes. Wilson is tied in 1 fewer game(I'm going to assume he'll have at least 1 against the Eagles tonight)

Rushing TDs/Yards matter too.

Mahomes 3700 yards 32 tds, 3 turnovers
Wilson 3350 yards 31 tds, 13 turnovers
Rodgers 3200 yards 34 tds, 6 turnovers
 

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17 minutes ago, travdogg said:

I'd still vote Rodgers over Mahomes. He's doing about as much, with quite a bit less talent around him. 
 

This isn’t how it works, and honestly I don’t see the talent gap as that wide a chasm. 

WR, I actually give the edge to Davante Adams over Hill. Hill has speed and hands, but Adams is better at the contested catch & runs every route. Is also a willing blocker. 

TE obviously favors KC, but the Packers haven’t so much emphasized the move TE for some time. When they do there are worse combos in the league than Tonyan/Lewis.

WR2-3 isn’t a huge gap between Lazard/MVS & Watkins/Hardman/Robinson - maybe if Watkins could stay healthy / consistent.

RB I give the edge to GB. Aaron Jones is superior to CEH & arguably also the 2020 version of LBell in every meaningful facet. 

The OL are comparable as well.

Arguably, the Packers offense has less pressure because the GB defense is a better, or at least better coached unit. This keeps games closer and allows for a more balanced game script. Chiefs D is a bit underrated but their pass rush is nowhere near as good as the Packers whether by scheme/design or talent.

Chiefs get in a lot more shootouts than the Packers, so maybe there’s an illusion that the Chiefs offense is dramatically better. I see two very good, very talented offenses. 

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4 minutes ago, Deamon said:

But you're right that it's a 3 man race and no one else comes into play (maybe Ben if they go undefeated but I still don't think so)

As for weapons, I would put them on par.

Adams > Hill (barely)
Tonyon << Kelce (by a lot)
Jones > CEH (close)
WIlliams > Bell (close)
GBP Oline > KC Oline (close)

jinx - lol, you were more succinct. 

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1 minute ago, Deamon said:

But you're right that it's a 3 man race and no one else comes into play (maybe Ben if they go undefeated but I still don't think so)

As for weapons, I would put them on par.

Adams > Hill (barely)
Tonyon << Kelce (by a lot)
Jones > CEH (close)
WIlliams > Bell (close)
GBP Oline > KC Oline (close)

It the Steelers go undefeated, I think it might make TJ Watt the DPOY, but I'm not sure it does anything for Roethlisberger. He simply doesn't have anywhere near the production.

Adams, Jones, Bahktiari all missed multiple games this season though. The Chiefs have stayed pretty healthy other than Watkins.

I'd probably say:

CEH/Bell=Jones/Williams

Adams/Lazard/MVS=Hill/Watkins/Hardman

Kelce>>>Tonyan

GB OL>>>>KC OL

Reid>>LaFluer

Ok, breaking it down 1 by 1 positionally, I probably jumped the gun a little giving Mahomes a big edge. I still think he has it easier, but its pretty close. 

Doing the same exercise for Wilson, I think his RBs are equal(when healthy) WR's are quite a bit better, TE is somewhere between KC and GB(closer to GB) OL someone between GB and KC(closer to GB) so Wilson has arguably the best situation of the 3.

 

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1 minute ago, travdogg said:

It the Steelers go undefeated, I think it might make TJ Watt the DPOY, but I'm not sure it does anything for Roethlisberger. He simply doesn't have anywhere near the production.

Adams, Jones, Bahktiari all missed multiple games this season though. The Chiefs have stayed pretty healthy other than Watkins.

I'd probably say:

CEH/Bell=Jones/Williams

Adams/Lazard/MVS=Hill/Watkins/Hardman

Kelce>>>Tonyan

GB OL>>>>KC OL

Reid>>LaFluer

Ok, breaking it down 1 by 1 positionally, I probably jumped the gun a little giving Mahomes a big edge. I still think he has it easier, but its pretty close. 

Doing the same exercise for Wilson, I think his RBs are equal(when healthy) WR's are quite a bit better, TE is somewhere between KC and GB(closer to GB) OL someone between GB and KC(closer to GB) so Wilson has arguably the best situation of the 3.

 

Ya Ben still prob wouldn't win even undefeated you're right... but I think a few might consider him.

I like your breakdown of positions.  I think overall it's pretty close.  All 3 situations are pretty good I'd say.  All have good RB's, top 10 OL's, Top 10 Receiving groups.  I think it's simply going to come down to individual numbers and record.  But assuming all the teams end up winning their divisions, I could see it coming down simply to stats.  Which Mahomes has a pretty good lead on right now but it could change. 

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