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Percentage Chance Biden Doesn't Finish Term? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter TripItUp
- Start date
Snorkelson
Footballguy
TripItUp
Footballguy
Actuarial tables disagree with the bolded. There are distinct differences in being 78 vs. say 58.
TripItUp
Footballguy
Snorkelson
Footballguy
This man also claims trump will live to be 200, so anyone with less partisan slant? Actually, your claim of “many physicians” should probably be able to find a petition or letter signed by, let’s say 50 people. That should be a pretty low threshold.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
I'm happy to see you being in the 30% of Republicans that has accepted the election results. Congrats!
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Shouldn't this be in the FBG sanctioned death pool thread?
The healthcare he has access to tips the scales in his favor. I distinctly remember there being at least a few senators still in office well into their 90s.
HellToupee
Footballguy
Imo it’s a pretty low chance he finishes out the term. The job ages people fast , Donald appears to be the only one it hasn’t. The pressure will accelerate whatever is going on currently. Unless of course he’s just a figure head.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
He seems pretty healthy for a guy his age. Spry enough to jog to the podium for his speeches without losing his breath. Not sure how many men pushing 80 can do that. That puts him in the under 5% range.
And yes, the job of POTUS does age people. Happens to every president. Not many die while in office though.
And yes, the job of POTUS does age people. Happens to every president. Not many die while in office though.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
I think it's always reasonable to have the president's health in the back of our minds. It was a big deal when McCain was running, it was a big deal when Trump tested positive for covid, and it's a big deal for Biden. Everybody is already acting the assumption that he's only going to serve one term, which is itself weird and unprecedented in modern US history. Even LBJ got more than four years.
I say that as somebody who basically likes the guy and is glad that he won. Too bad he didn't run in 2016 -- we'd all be better off.
leave a whisper
Footballguy
I like Biden's odds of finishing his 4 year term better than I like the odds of Trump running again in 2024
BoltBacker
Footballguy
I dunno, seems to me the R's better start saving for a war chest in 2024. Trump absolutely will run in 2024 as an independent unless there is some "incentive" for him to stay out of the race just based on his ego alone. Not one D will vote for trump in 2024 but plenty of R's are completely under his spell no matter what he does as the last election has proven. Don't think trump can guarantee a R victory in 2024, but he absolutely could guarantee a R loss. That gives him more power than the R's would like to admit in 2024.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Showing signs of dementia, definitely not all there, yet mastermind behind all these pay for play plots and taking performance enhancing drugs before the debates, these all seem like reasonable speculations.
Dr_Zaius
Footballguy
To be fair, the question isn't "will Joe Biden die in the next four years?" He could be alive and fine but not in office. He decided he didn't want to run in 2016 and there was always discussion of him only serving one term. Maybe in two years, he decides the job is more trouble than it's worth at this point in his life. If he viewed his main job as being the man to take out Trump, he's already accomplished that.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
Sorry but I stopped allowing deathpool threads years ago. If you see one, please report it. There is no "sanctioned" thread whatever that means.
Whether a person remains in their position for a full term is something we do allow. This was a popular topic with Trump and we allowed it.
Summer Wheat
Footballguy
Hopefully Biden will finish one term.
Not sure what kind of condition he will be in as he sounded old and tired the day after the election, but maybe that is because he is old and was tired. It happens at that age.
Not sure what kind of condition he will be in as he sounded old and tired the day after the election, but maybe that is because he is old and was tired. It happens at that age.
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
sho nuff
Footballguy
His two speeches in the days after the election (and the day the networks called it) were quite good....not sure where you saw he sounded old or tired.
Though, the day after Id forgive anyone for sounding tired.
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TripItUp
Footballguy
Not intended to be a "death" thread. Just trying to garner the wisdom of this forum on how this will be out. A 78 year old person taking office is a first for this country, Kamala isn't exactly a proven leader in the eyes of many.
HellToupee
Footballguy
HellToupee
Footballguy
Summer Wheat
Footballguy
Quint
Footballguy
this.
Biden will abdicate POTUS in about two years, paving the way for a Harris to [potentially] serve 2.5 terms.
Quint
Footballguy
50/50 right now, possibly higher as we get toward mid-term Senate races.
i could envision a scenario where if Ds are able to re-take control of the Senate in 2022, Biden would step aside [because reasons] with the job of removing Trump complete and Ds in the dominant position.
Bottomfeeder Sports
Footballguy
Is this prediction dependent at all on how the country is doing in two years? If things are going really bad would Biden simply "cut and run"? I can maybe see heading out on top, but absent that I don't see a non destructive path to handing over the country such that Harris or any democrat has a fighting chance in 2024. Maybe you see it differently, but if I assume you agree there wouldn't this prediction seem to indicate that two years from now things will be going well for the country? That seems quite a hill to climb right now!
I work with people in the dementia field, and most of them voted for Biden. Some of them, experienced neuropsychologists for example, were concerned about his cognitive status. I was also worried.
But the dementia speculation was a little overblown based on his performance in the debates and post-election. He may qualify for a condition known as mild cognitive impairment (MCI) which requires measurable cognitive deficits, which don't affect everyday functioning. Most cases of MCI don't progress over a 2-3 year period, some even get better, but a sizeable portion do have the beginning of an early neurodegenegative disorder, such as Alzheimer's Disease. His history of stuttering and aneurysm repair could confound a diagnosis, especially when we're speculating without any direct examination or interview with those close to him. But his age alone does represent a risk for cognitive decline.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
For any of the people that voted >50%, I'm willing to take bets on him finishing out the term with even odds. That should be free EV for you.
ETA: More than happy to have a 3rd party hold the bet money (and make a little interest off of it) for the full 4 years.
ETA: More than happy to have a 3rd party hold the bet money (and make a little interest off of it) for the full 4 years.
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I just even odds from a buddy that Biden doesn’t make it two years. he thought Biden was 84.
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Quint
Footballguy
i'm not sure Biden has the burning desire to stay on for a full term. my memory may be foggy, but he seemed sort of a reluctant entrant to the race, and really wasn't a contender until SC. the job was to defeat Trump above anything else and Biden did enough to make that happen.Bottomfeeder Sports said:
that aside, it seems plausible that in two years we would have a handle on C-19 which would take place under a Biden presidency. he would be able to take credit for that, and have that be his legacy as he rides off into the sunset [again, because reasons]. add a flipped Senate and this seems reasonable (at least to me). if/when Harris steps into the POTUS role, she will have a leg up on any challenger - as if the DNC would really allow a challenger to emerge - and a resume' ahead of anyone from the R side by virtue of simply being VP for a couple of years. if things are "going well" in the US, she can also ride that wave into the 2024 campaign. if things are on a downturn, the message will "Well, look at what we inherited!" and "But the The Trump Years..." and things will roll on.
I seem to remember a lot of talk of Trump not making it a full term either. Many on the left thought he would be impeached and removed within the first year. That is what many people wanted to happen but was very unlikely in retrospect.
I don't see Biden leaving other than because of death or a major medical issue. This man has wanted to be president his whole adult life and finally got there on his third try. He is not stepping down.
Because of his age, I think his chance of dying or having a medical issue is higher than most presidents so I picked 5-10. That seems about right.
I don't see Biden leaving other than because of death or a major medical issue. This man has wanted to be president his whole adult life and finally got there on his third try. He is not stepping down.
Because of his age, I think his chance of dying or having a medical issue is higher than most presidents so I picked 5-10. That seems about right.
squistion
Footballguy
Bottomfeeder Sports
Footballguy
I think the odds of Trump stepping down in the next few weeks because "after all he has done we don't deserve him" are about the same as Biden not finishing his term.
GordonGekko
Footballguy
moleculo said:
What in the entire world are you even talking about?
POTUS controls America's nuclear arsenal and is the defacto leader of the free world. This isn't just a discussion of Biden's lifespan but his cognitive ability, that has been put into question by many on both sides of the aisle.
You know what would be in poor taste for the American people? Someone with dementia who CONTROLS THE ABILITY TO WAGE NUCLEAR WAR AND WIPE OUT ALL LIFE ON THE ENTIRE PLANET. The POTUS has a very specific role historically in foreign policy. So either it's dementia or cognitive decline or a stutter, all of it looks and becomes weak. You must show strength to the world from this position.
If Biden is no longer cognitively capable ( and questions are abound as he's doing and saying more than just gaffes and stutters), then who is in power? Kamala Harris? Someone who was NOT ELECTED? She couldn't even win the DNC nomination.
Biden is currently the OLDEST first term President of the United States. He keeps saying bizarre #### like he's running for Senate and confuses his wife from his other family members. Our political system was not designed to have a POTUS by proxy or have our nuclear arsenal controlled by some unelected cabal of interests that don't give a #### about the American people.
Here is right at the point where some woke ### liberal will pipe up and start screaming about Donald Trump. Trump has nothing to do with any of this. Remove Trump from this equation. Biden's merits or lack of it, as POTUS, need to be weighed on their own terms for the good of the American people. That is the fallout of the outrage culture and political tribalism. It's turning blinders to one issue by using any logical fallacy possible to paint the other side in the most radical hateful light possible.
Partisan politics, political tribalism, social media, MSM and the cancel culture have all done their part to focus on the animosity towards Donald Trump instead of asking why a guy with dementia is now the leader of the free world?
“By the way, you know, I sit on the stand and it’d get hot. I got a lot of — I got hairy legs that turn blonde in the sun. And the kids used to come up and reach in the pool and rub my leg down so it was straight and then watch the hair come back up again. I love kids jumping on my lap."
I believe Biden lasts exactly two years. Just long enough to ensure Harris gets to finish out the term and gets to run twice more. Then Grandpa Joe will be put out to pasture with an egg salad sandwich and some Ovaltine. The last two election cycles, was this the best the DNC could do? Hillary Clinton with her trail of bodies and fake Botox injected smile and a guy with dementia?
But at least he's not Donald Trump! Sure, that's a ton of solace when Grandpa Biden forgets whether he left the oven on or not, shoving the entire world into nuclear holocaust, and starts launching nukes at New Zealand because those damn hobbits are up to no good again.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
It seems to me a lot of folks have forgotten what "normal" looks like in a presidency.
It's kind of ironic that so many people have this romantic idea of the greatness of the US in the mid to late 80's and we now know that Reagan was more than a few jelly beans short of a jar at the time.
It's one of the advantages of having a person that actually listens to his expert advisors whether it pertains to foreign policy, health policy, the economy, etc. When you aren't a megalomaniac and scream all the time that you are the smartest guy in any and every room you weigh the expertise of others around you. And you surround yourself with qualified people for that purpose rather than appointing your family members and biggest donors.
Simply having a president that no longer has the "mean tweeting" habits of a teenage girl will be a step in the right direction. So many that said Clinton took the dignity out of the office when he was president but then backed the last guy to the bitter end is laughable... and then they hide behind the word "whataboutism" as if that washes off the stink of their hypocrisy. "Whataboutism" is the new "fake news". It doesn't mean anything other than, "well that may be true but I don't want to hear it!". If that's not being a snowflake I don't know what is.
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
Well the good thing is the media after Trump will be very gentle in how they handle Biden. There will not be a stream of attacks and interuptions from Acosta or anything other media person. It will be softball questions teed up in a polite manner. In that type of forum Biden will do just fine. Now if something happens and he is hounded by 30 reporters at one time like Trump has dealt with Biden could get confused fast. I don`t see Biden waiting to get on the helicopter and taking a bunch of questions from reporters without having prepared answers.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
NorvilleBarnes
Footballguy
Zow
Footballguy
Mister CIA
Footballguy
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Eight presidents have died in office, of which five died during their first term. Since we've had only 45 presidents, that's 5/45 --> 11% chance the POTUS doesn't complete 4 years. Granted, medicine and presidential security are a lot better than in days past, but Biden's age probably offsets some of that benefit. 10% seems about right.
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