Mike Pence's only real shot was to run if Trump won a 2nd term. So he's out. He'll be seen as too aligned to the Trump administration.
The RNC contenders will be Dan Crenshaw, Tucker Carlson, Nikki Haley and Trump. Democrats won 2020 but at the cost of many future elections to come. Trump was polarizing as a corrupt narcissist and still made the race close. A more moderate candidate will take 2024 in a landslide. I suppose the DNC could push AOC forward, except she would get beaten to a pulp in any debate and all the posturing she's done in the last year will come back to haunt her. I suspect it will be Newsom, engaging in the "Peter Principle" The greatest gift Newsom gave to the DNC was driving California so far into the ground , that people fled to Arizona and Texas, turning areas into blue strongholds.
The DNC's huge mistake was to blackball Tulsi Gabbard. Since they couldn't control her, they had to cancel her. That will cost them for decades to come.
The misconception is all these minority voters went just for Trump this cycle. The Obama and Hillary election cycles plus this one mobilized voters like never before. Except a ton of them will be young conservatives that the MSM will pretend does not exist. Four years from now, all this woke crap is going to push moderates and undecideds to the right.
The current establishment will try to put Trump in prison. So running in 2024 is not the best supply for his open narcissism. Having his own MSM outlet will be his pathway. I don't see him running seriously and I don't see him getting the nomination. If you track his speeches, he's going to go after Ilhan Omar first. If you funnel millions of dollars in campaign money to your third husband's fake business, you'll probably invite wolves into the hen house.
A Crenshaw/Haley ticket could win. The cancel culture cannot go within a thousand feet of Crenshaw ( Ivy League, Navy Seal, combat veteran, clean profile, looks like a pirate)