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Will Donald Trump run again? If he does will he win the nomination? If he wins the nomination, will he win the Presidency?


timschochet

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I didn’t consider this a serious topic until yesterday when I heard at least two reporters say that Trump has told several of his people that if he loses (he has) he will run again in 2024. No idea if he means it, but let’s say he does for the purpose of this discussion. 
At this time, and things could change, I have no reason to think that Trump wouldn’t win the nomination. I’m not sure who would challenge him. As to whether he would win that’s a different subject. 
Thoughts? 

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Ultimately isn't the question whether or not in four years the GOP look back upon these past four years fondly?  Or best left in the rear view mirror?

So if these next three years go pretty poorly I think that Biden will be blamed (even for 2020), that the GOP will solidify in the "don't blame me I voted Trump" mode, and Trump will be odds on favorite.

If things are going really well by 2023 give or take I think even Trump supporters will be looking to move on.

Problem in predicting is that there are lots of options in between these two.  Problem for those that cringe at the thought of Trump running again is that this time the new president is really inheriting a mess and its hard to believe we will ever be looking back fondly at 2021.

So is that a good non answer?

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1 minute ago, Bottomfeeder Sports said:

Ultimately isn't the question whether or not in four years the GOP look back upon these past four years fondly?  Or best left in the rear view mirror?

So if these next three years go pretty poorly I think that Biden will be blamed (even for 2020), that the GOP will solidify in the "don't blame me I voted Trump" mode, and Trump will be odds on favorite.

If things are going really well by 2023 give or take I think even Trump supporters will be looking to move on.

Problem in predicting is that there are lots of options in between these two.  Problem for those that cringe at the thought of Trump running again is that this time the new president is really inheriting a mess and its hard to believe we will ever be looking back fondly at 2021.

So is that a good non answer?

I agree there are a lot of what if’s at play here. But the one thing I have trouble seeing is a repudiation of Trump within the GOP which is what a “let’s move on” situation would have to entail. I also don’t see any possible candidate able to fill that role IF Trump decides to run. 
There is also the possibility that Trump could pull a Teddy Roosevelt and quit the Republican Party, running as an independent. 

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I think it will all depend on the severity of what we learn once the investigations are complete into all the fraud, corruption and money funneled into the Trump business from his four years in office.

There was so much distraction (on purpose) that each major scandal was replaced by the next because our media sucks. Once it is all laid out on paper and investigated I think it will be a lot more damaging than having to move from one story to the next each week.

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No...because even the hint of it once he is out of office...and I think that question I believe Joe asked about if a Biden Admin/DOJ should pursue charges/investigations into possible things by the Trump administration/

Most seemed to think no unless there was something obvious.  Try to move forward, let the NY issues play out on that level.  But him running again changes that IMO.

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I would say that assuming he is in decent health in 4 years, the answers to your questions are:

  1. Probably
  2. Probably
  3. Maybe, but it's not far-fetched

In 4 years he'll be 78, which is how old Biden will be in 9 days.  It's not out of the realm of possibility, but let's not forget that these are geriatric old men, and it's the most stressful job on the planet.

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19 minutes ago, Bamboo Bill said:

I think it will all depend on the severity of what we learn once the investigations are complete into all the fraud, corruption and money funneled into the Trump business Biden family from his four years in office projecting their illegal payoffs from Russia onto Trump.

There was so much distraction (on purpose) that each major scandal was replaced by the next because our media sucks. Once it is all laid out on paper and investigated I think it will be a lot more damaging than having to move from one story to the next each week.

Agreed. They are dirty, dirty, dirty. 

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I don't think he will run again. I think he will get out of office, do his grift "Shadow President, stolen election" thing so that he can continue to hold rallies. And he will realize how much better that is than actually being President.

Having said that, he will need to figure out a way to take money from his supporters. So maybe he forms an exploratory committee? Or a PAC or something?

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4 minutes ago, whoknew said:

I don't think he will run again. I think he will get out of office, do his grift "Shadow President, stolen election" thing so that he can continue to hold rallies. And he will realize how much better that is than actually being President.

Having said that, he will need to figure out a way to take money from his supporters. So maybe he forms an exploratory committee? Or a PAC or something?

I agree.  Opposing the president is much easier than being the president.

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5 minutes ago, whoknew said:

I don't think he will run again. I think he will get out of office, do his grift "Shadow President, stolen election" thing so that he can continue to hold rallies. And he will realize how much better that is than actually being President.

Having said that, he will need to figure out a way to take money from his supporters. So maybe he forms an exploratory committee? Or a PAC or something?

This is exactly what I think.  he'll start running again as soon as he gets out of office.  Rallies, MAGA merch and political contributions will be his next grift (when he isn't being deposed by SDNY).  Whether he actually runs in 2024 is 50/50 (certainly his supporters won't care about the outcome of the SDNY investigation and the many indictments that will come from this administration), but I do think he'll give the appearance of running from the moment he leaves office.

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Trump has so much support with the RNC base he is the RNC at this time.  This is why you don't see the RNC coming out to congratulate President Biden.   RNC is scared to death the damage that Trump can do to them and their political future.  Hell the RNC is probably scared that Trump can ruin them in the private world as well.   So yes Trump can run in 2024 or he could actually break off a good portion of the RNC and run 3rd party.   If Trump can get millions of the RNC to quit watching FOX along with bringing along Sean Hannity, and Tucker Carlson...Trump can run and win the RNC nomination.  So, for the next four years Trump will be controlling cowardly senate republicans from the sidelines.

 

Left out Rush due to health.

Edited by SHIZNITTTT
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1 hour ago, timschochet said:

I didn’t consider this a serious topic until yesterday when I heard at least two reporters say that Trump has told several of his people that if he loses (he has) he will run again in 2024. No idea if he means it, but let’s say he does for the purpose of this discussion. 
At this time, and things could change, I have no reason to think that Trump wouldn’t win the nomination. I’m not sure who would challenge him. As to whether he would win that’s a different subject. 
Thoughts? 

He's pretty old.  Once he gets a taste of his old life and builds a media empire (which I believe will happen), I don't think he will have any desire to get back into politics.

But I suppose he could possibly win the nomination if he tried.

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14 minutes ago, shader said:

He's pretty old.  Once he gets a taste of his old life and builds a media empire (which I believe will happen), I don't think he will have any desire to get back into politics.

But I suppose he could possibly win the nomination if he tried.

He can play golf, hold rallies, appear on TV whenever he wants and steal peoples money while being POTUS.  What more is there that he wants to do?  Unless he has a serious health issue there's no doubt in my mind he will run again.  Heck, depending on who the Democrats put up against him, he may be the favorite in 2024.

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I'm sorry, but this seems like a really silly thread. The embers aren't even out from this election. And Trump may not even be alive in 4 years (not to be morbid or anything but he would be 78 by then). Are we just looking for anything to continuously stress us out? And let's say he does run again in 4 years, I mean how could the old gods or the new predict whether or not he will win?

I thought we would be getting back to some interesting political discussions when this election is over. I would prefer for Trump to not live in our heads for the next 4 years.

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11 minutes ago, TheMagus said:

I'm sorry, but this seems like a really silly thread. The embers aren't even out from this election. And Trump may not even be alive in 4 years (not to be morbid or anything but he would be 78 by then). Are we just looking for anything to continuously stress us out? And let's say he does run again in 4 years, I mean how could the old gods or the new predict whether or not he will win?

I thought we would be getting back to some interesting political discussions when this election is over. I would prefer for Trump to not live in our heads for the next 4 years.

I agree and he’s not going to run again. He’ll get the attention he craves being the king of the GOP. It’s said he doesn’t like the job at all (I mean it’s obvious by his effort) but just the attention it brings — he’ll get enough of that to keep him from running. Also, he knows if he runs again he’ll likely lose. 

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37 minutes ago, Kal El said:

If he does run again, he would be the same age as Biden is now, and if he doesn't run as a Republican, he's likely to take votes from whatever GOP candidate they put up in the race.

Yeah.  It's an interesting problem if he decides to run.

So much can happen in 4 years.  

I see both sides of the age thing.  Trump will be 78---same as Biden will be going into this.  Biden I think is much more physically fit--and as others have said seems to have taken pretty good care of himself.  Trump's...a little bigger.  

 

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I doubt he will run again, having too much on his plate to find the time to take another shot.

Starting next year he will be dealing with prosecutions for his alleged wrongdoings in NY state, not to mention crimes that couldn't be charged on the federal level because he was a sitting president. Last but not least he is personally responsible for more than $420 million in debt, most of which is coming due within the next four years (according to the NYT). His creditors realize that his brand has been irrevocably damaged, his income will drop precipitously (less business at Trump hotels) and there are no longer favors that can be granted once he is no longer POTUS.

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Reuters @Reuters 3h

Trump is telling allies he plans to run for president in 2024 and that he could announce it by the end of the year. The U.S. constitution allows two four-year terms and they do not need to be consecutive

https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN27S01C?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=twitter&__twitter_impression=true&__twitter_impression=true&__twitter_impression=true&__twitter_impression=true

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6 hours ago, TheMagus said:

I'm sorry, but this seems like a really silly thread. The embers aren't even out from this election. And Trump may not even be alive in 4 years (not to be morbid or anything but he would be 78 by then). Are we just looking for anything to continuously stress us out? And let's say he does run again in 4 years, I mean how could the old gods or the new predict whether or not he will win?

I thought we would be getting back to some interesting political discussions when this election is over. I would prefer for Trump to not live in our heads for the next 4 years.

It would be silly except (1) he’s telling people he’s going to do it and (2) if he decides to do it I don’t see any other Republicans stopping him. Therefore it’s at least worth discussing. 

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16 hours ago, timschochet said:

I didn’t consider this a serious topic until yesterday when I heard at least two reporters say that Trump has told several of his people that if he loses (he has) he will run again in 2024. No idea if he means it, but let’s say he does for the purpose of this discussion. 
At this time, and things could change, I have no reason to think that Trump wouldn’t win the nomination. I’m not sure who would challenge him. As to whether he would win that’s a different subject. 
Thoughts? 

 

Mike Pence's only real shot was to run if Trump won a 2nd term. So he's out. He'll be seen as too aligned to the Trump administration.

The RNC contenders will be Dan Crenshaw, Tucker Carlson, Nikki Haley and Trump.  Democrats won 2020 but at the cost of many future elections to come. Trump was polarizing as a corrupt narcissist and still made the race close. A more moderate candidate will take 2024 in a landslide.  I suppose the DNC could push AOC forward, except she would get beaten to a pulp in any debate and all the posturing she's done in the last year will come back to haunt her. I suspect it will be Newsom, engaging in the "Peter Principle"  The greatest gift Newsom gave to the DNC was driving California so far into the ground , that people fled to Arizona and Texas, turning areas into blue strongholds.

The DNC's huge mistake was to blackball Tulsi Gabbard. Since they couldn't control her, they had to cancel her. That will cost them for decades to come.

The misconception is all these minority voters went just for Trump this cycle. The Obama and Hillary election cycles plus this one mobilized voters like never before. Except a ton of them will be young conservatives that the MSM will pretend does not exist. Four years from now, all this woke crap is going to push moderates and undecideds to the right.

The current establishment will try to put Trump in prison. So running in 2024 is not the best supply for his open narcissism. Having his own MSM outlet will be his pathway. I don't see him running seriously and I don't see him getting the nomination. If you track his speeches, he's going to go after Ilhan Omar first. If you funnel millions of dollars in campaign money to your third husband's fake business, you'll probably invite wolves into the hen house.

A Crenshaw/Haley ticket could win. The cancel culture cannot go within a thousand feet of Crenshaw ( Ivy League, Navy Seal, combat veteran, clean profile, looks like a pirate)

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37 minutes ago, GordonGekko said:

 

Mike Pence's only real shot was to run if Trump won a 2nd term. So he's out. He'll be seen as too aligned to the Trump administration.

The RNC contenders will be Dan Crenshaw, Tucker Carlson, Nikki Haley and Trump.  Democrats won 2020 but at the cost of many future elections to come. Trump was polarizing as a corrupt narcissist and still made the race close. A more moderate candidate will take 2024 in a landslide.  I suppose the DNC could push AOC forward, except she would get beaten to a pulp in any debate and all the posturing she's done in the last year will come back to haunt her. I suspect it will be Newsom, engaging in the "Peter Principle"  The greatest gift Newsom gave to the DNC was driving California so far into the ground , that people fled to Arizona and Texas, turning areas into blue strongholds.

The DNC's huge mistake was to blackball Tulsi Gabbard. Since they couldn't control her, they had to cancel her. That will cost them for decades to come.

The misconception is all these minority voters went just for Trump this cycle. The Obama and Hillary election cycles plus this one mobilized voters like never before. Except a ton of them will be young conservatives that the MSM will pretend does not exist. Four years from now, all this woke crap is going to push moderates and undecideds to the right.

The current establishment will try to put Trump in prison. So running in 2024 is not the best supply for his open narcissism. Having his own MSM outlet will be his pathway. I don't see him running seriously and I don't see him getting the nomination. If you track his speeches, he's going to go after Ilhan Omar first. If you funnel millions of dollars in campaign money to your third husband's fake business, you'll probably invite wolves into the hen house.

A Crenshaw/Haley ticket could win. The cancel culture cannot go within a thousand feet of Crenshaw ( Ivy League, Navy Seal, combat veteran, clean profile, looks like a pirate)

I stopped at Tucker Carlson. 

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He should move to FL and run against Rubio in ‘22, then enjoy his theatrics in the Senate as McConnell has to attempt to control him.  All the disruption as before, just without the power...no, I don’t really want that, but I can’t help but think how fun it’d be to watch 

It will be “interesting” to see what he does as a former president, since norms are to keep quiet for the most part

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53 minutes ago, That one guy said:

He should move to FL and run against Rubio in ‘22, then enjoy his theatrics in the Senate as McConnell has to attempt to control him.  All the disruption as before, just without the power...no, I don’t really want that, but I can’t help but think how fun it’d be to watch 

It will be “interesting” to see what he does as a former president, since norms are to keep quiet for the most part

I live in Florida, and it's bad enough the traffic snarl he caused by flying into PBIA every other weekend in the winter. I'd rather he not have anything to do with the Senate.

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