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Weather concerns week 10


FGITLOTR

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FYI, the forecast for a few of the early window games looks concerning. Here are the games worth monitoring:

Jags at GB- Looks like light rain and heavy winds for the majority of the game. They are calling for sustained 27-30 mph winds, which could heavily impact passing. I’d really temper expectations for AROD and Adams, especially since they should go up early and not have to throw a lot. It should be a big day for Jones and Williams. 
 

Houston at Cle- the forecast is calling for steady rain and 30 mph winds. I would expect the Browns to control the clock with their offensive line having their way against the weak Texan front 7. The heavy winds should put a damper on the Texan passing attack. Watson has been able to produce with ample garbage time production, but this may prove more arduous tomorrow. Chubb, assuming he’s back in the lineup, should have a nice day running the ball. 
 

Cincy at Pitt- the forecast is calling for overcast skies with 20 mph winds. The weather looks better than the other two games, but 20 mph winds are more than enough to negatively impact both passing attacks. I’d still expect Burrow to sling it 40 plus times tomorrow, but this may be a big game for the Steeler D. As for the Steeler O, I can see a heavy dose of their rushing attack. 
 

Balt at Ne- the forecast for Sunday night is calling for light rain and 20 mph winds. With NE’s porous D, Is fully expect Balt to dominate with their ground game and ask LamJax to do little through the air. On the Pats side, running against that stout Raven D won’t be easy, and Cam has a hard enough time throwing when weather conditions are optimal. 

Edited by FGITLOTR
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Similar concerns seen here by Roth.

Facing D. Watson. Good, but I have W. Fuller in right now which concerns me.

https://rotogrinders.com/weather/nfl

RED : HOU @ CLE - 

Sustained winds 25mph+, stronger gusts (50ish?), impact to any deep passes and kicks (longer FG's won't even be attempted). Bump down to passing attack of both teams, expect a more run-centric game plan. This game looks almost exactly as windy as the week 8 game.

RED : JAC @ GBP - 

Forecast here looks almost exactly the same as in CLE, except we can add in some light snow / snow flurries too (I think the more significant snow will be clear by kickoff), but mostly... "Sustained winds 25mph+, stronger gusts (50ish?), impact to any deep passes and kicks (longer FG's won't even be attempted). Bump down to passing attack of both teams, expect a more run-centric game plan".

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45 minutes ago, dmac37 said:

Fade Rodgers at your own peril. I heard on Sirius radio that weather/wind really has not effected his output throughout the years.

Sure...and if I did, it wouldn't be for just anyone (I have Herbert).  And his last really windy game he went 291 and 3 TDs against Minnesota.

I think my bigger concern is a dedicated effort to run the ball as that game was without Jones.  

And my bigger fade in that game is Chark (but also fading Cooks a bit in the Houston game).

Edited by sho nuff
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It's 5 mph winds today and nice out here near Cleveland.  Too bad we are not playing on Saturday.  I hate how it is so nice today and will be so terrible tomorrow for football.  Just brutal as if we all didn't have enough to deal with covid and injuries for our teams that weather has to crush us as well.

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1 hour ago, dmac37 said:

Fade Rodgers at your own peril. I heard on Sirius radio that weather/wind really has not effected his output throughout the years.

I hear you, but look at the opponent and how good their running game is. Unless you have an amazing option, you aren’t benching AROD, but to think he puts up elite numbers doesn’t seem realistic. 

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Cleveland hourly forecast

Green Bay hourly forecast

Pittsburgh hourly weather

Looking at the 3 Sunday games it certainly looks worst to me in Pittsburgh based on latest weather updates but depends if you worry more about wind or rain.

Cleveland looks to have 30 MPH winds most of the games but little to no precipitation.

Green Bay is very minimal weather concern with almost zero precipitation and winds in the 20-25 MPH range.

Pittsburgh is the one game of the 3 that looks like it's going to be in a lot of precipitation, especially the first half with 75-85% chance of rain and with winds in the 20 MPH range.

 

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I don't think it bothers Rodgers that much because they adjust to that short dump off game often. They use those passes that are like runs. I am way more concerned with them getting a lead and if Rodgers doesn't contribute to all of those points getting that lead, then you have a sub-par week. 

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4 hours ago, menobrown said:

Cleveland hourly forecast

Green Bay hourly forecast

Pittsburgh hourly weather

Looking at the 3 Sunday games it certainly looks worst to me in Pittsburgh based on latest weather updates but depends if you worry more about wind or rain.

Cleveland looks to have 30 MPH winds most of the games but little to no precipitation.

Green Bay is very minimal weather concern with almost zero precipitation and winds in the 20-25 MPH range.

Pittsburgh is the one game of the 3 that looks like it's going to be in a lot of precipitation, especially the first half with 75-85% chance of rain and with winds in the 20 MPH range.

 

Clev forecasted the most rain of the three. Not sure what you are looking at.

Clev game is at noon.

Pitt is 3:25 late afternoon

Edited by steelwind
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9 hours ago, sho nuff said:

Sure...and if I did, it wouldn't be for just anyone (I have Herbert).  And his last really windy game he went 291 and 3 TDs against Minnesota.

I think my bigger concern is a dedicated effort to run the ball as that game was without Jones.  

And my bigger fade in that game is Chark (but also fading Cooks a bit in the Houston game).

I hope you're wrong. My three WRs are Chark, Fuller and Cooks, and I'm facing Jones this week.

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2 hours ago, steelwind said:

Clev forecasted the most rain of the three. Not sure what you are looking at.

Clev game is at noon.

Pitt is 3:25 late afternoon

I thought the Steeler game started at 1.

The times listed are local so none of those times you listed were right either. The Steeler game starting at 4 instead of 1 like I thought  is a huge difference. The Cleveland game is just a 50% chance of rain the first hour and then drops. Seems like maybe first quarter has some rain to deal with but not much more or much I see as impactul but for sure has most rain of the 3 since I was wrong on Steeler start time.

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19 minutes ago, menobrown said:

I thought the Steeler game started at 1.

The times listed are local so none of those times you listed were right either. The Steeler game starting at 4 instead of 1 like I thought  is a huge difference. The Cleveland game is just a 50% chance of rain the first hour and then drops. Seems like maybe first quarter has some rain to deal with but not much more or much I see as impactul but for sure has most rain of the 3 since I was wrong on Steeler start time.

Huh???

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9 hours ago, menobrown said:

The Cleveland game is just a 50% chance of rain the first hour and then drops. Seems like maybe first quarter has some rain to deal with but not much more or much I see as impactul but for sure has most rain

Today - Rain with a high of 57 °F (13.9 °C) and a 60% chance of precipitation. Winds variable at 22 to 30 mph (35.4 to 48.3 kph).

Tonight - Windy. Winds from SW to WSW at 21 to 27 mph (33.8 to 43.5 kph). The overnight low will be 40 °F (4.4 °C).

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Just checked local radar and right now we are getting hit as the initial front moved through with high winds and heavy rain.  

The local radar has a 6 hour future forecast/projection and a little after kickoff it looks like another fast moving disturbance will move through and it pings hotter/redder on the radar so I expect some of the heaviest winds and rain to have an effect early if that projection holds true.  (obviously not 100% accurate)

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22 hours ago, kyoun1e said:

Similar concerns seen here by Roth.

Facing D. Watson. Good, but I have W. Fuller in right now which concerns me.

https://rotogrinders.com/weather/nfl

RED : HOU @ CLE - 

Sustained winds 25mph+, stronger gusts (50ish?), impact to any deep passes and kicks (longer FG's won't even be attempted). Bump down to passing attack of both teams, expect a more run-centric game plan. This game looks almost exactly as windy as the week 8 game.

RED : JAC @ GBP - 

Forecast here looks almost exactly the same as in CLE, except we can add in some light snow / snow flurries too (I think the more significant snow will be clear by kickoff), but mostly... "Sustained winds 25mph+, stronger gusts (50ish?), impact to any deep passes and kicks (longer FG's won't even be attempted). Bump down to passing attack of both teams, expect a more run-centric game plan".

And here I sit choosing between Mayfield and Luton in supeflex :X

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47 minutes ago, kyoun1e said:

May be benching Fuller for Antonio Brown.

I’m looking at the same possibility, or I could roll the dice with Hollywood again. Not thrilled with either option though. If Fuller and Watson can connect on one deep ball today despite the wind, he easily could still easily outscore both of those guys given recent performance.

Another thing to consider is Fuller has picked up a lot of the underneath Nuk routes this year, so he’s not at the same risk as he would have been in years past.

Edited by Johnny Utah #9
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2 minutes ago, Johnny Utah #9 said:

I’m looking at the same possibility, or I could roll the dice with Hollywood again. Not thrilled with either option though. If Fuller and Watson can connect on one deep ball today despite the wind, he easily could still easily outscore both of those guys given recent performance.

Another thing to consider is Fuller has picked up a lot of the underneath Nuk routes this year, so he’s not at the same risk as he would have been in years past.

We must have the same teams. 

M. Brown isn't even a consideration for me this week (so I'm sure he'll go off). It's going to be lousy pouring rain in NE tonight. That combined with a NE run D that looks god awful leads me to think that BALT is just going to have their way with the pats on the ground. And if Gilmore plays forget it...he'll be on Brown.

Feeling a TB rebound game. The gambler in me wants to push all my chips onto Evans and AB.

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1 hour ago, skinsrule05 said:

Given this forecast I am going to bench Fuller for Duke. I have to think they will utilize the run game more then the deep game. 

With 6 straight games with a TD and 3 100 yd games in that stretch...plus catching 5 of 5 targets for 100 just last week....you might just be overthinking things.  Think how you'd feel if he catches a short one and takes it to the house?   Oh, that was last week :)

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On 11/14/2020 at 8:17 AM, FGITLOTR said:


FYI, the forecast for a few of the early window games looks concerning. Here are the games worth monitoring:

Jags at GB- Looks like light rain and heavy winds for the majority of the game. They are calling for sustained 27-30 mph winds, which could heavily impact passing. I’d really temper expectations for AROD and Adams, especially since they should go up early and not have to throw a lot. It should be a big day for Jones and Williams. 
 

Houston at Cle- the forecast is calling for steady rain and 30 mph winds. I would expect the Browns to control the clock with their offensive line having their way against the weak Texan front 7. The heavy winds should put a damper on the Texan passing attack. Watson has been able to produce with ample garbage time production, but this may prove more arduous tomorrow. Chubb, assuming he’s back in the lineup, should have a nice day running the ball. 
 

Cincy at Pitt- the forecast is calling for overcast skies with 20 mph winds. The weather looks better than the other two games, but 20 mph winds are more than enough to negatively impact both passing attacks. I’d still expect Burrow to sling it 40 plus times tomorrow, but this may be a big game for the Steeler D. As for the Steeler O, I can see a heavy dose of their rushing attack. 
 

Balt at Ne- the forecast for Sunday night is calling for light rain and 20 mph winds. With NE’s porous D, Is fully expect Balt to dominate with their ground game and ask LamJax to do little through the air. On the Pats side, running against that stout Raven D won’t be easy, and Cam has a hard enough time throwing when weather conditions are optimal. 

Jax at GB

HOU at CLE

CIN at PIT

Direct links to the game threads, feel free to pour some of the bench/activate moves into the game threads prior to kick off 👍

Edited by Ministry of Pain
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48 minutes ago, SoBeDad said:

Short passes over long passes. In the Cinn-Pitt game that would favor Boyd and Johnson, over Claypool and Higgins, who've depended more on the long ball.

Would you bench Higgins for guys that are really only a decent play because of the match up...example would be Josh Reynolds LAR today who will face off against Seattle who doesn't stop anyone. 

Higgins projects now as a Top 30 play weekly, I'm not disagreeing with your POV, my question is do you see Higgins outside the Top 40-50 today? Dud game? 

Edited by Ministry of Pain
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Just now, Ministry of Pain said:

Would you bench Higgins for guys that are really only a decent play because of the match up...example would be Josh Reynolds LAR today who will face off against Seattle who doesn't stop anyone. 

Higgins projects now as a Top 30 play weekly, I'm not disagreeing with your POV, my question is do you see Higgins outside the Top 40-50 today? Dud game? 

I was comparing players in the same game, same conditions. But Higgins versus Reynolds, I'd call it a toss-up with matchup and weather making up the difference in the ratings.  Pitt is a very good defense and Higgins isn't stud level yet. Plus, Burrow struggled vs Baltimore a few weeks ago. 

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4 minutes ago, jurrassic said:

Ticker on ESPN calling for 25 mph winds in the PHI/NYG game. That seems significant

I caution folks who rationalize how they themselves would fare in these conditions. These are men who have been playing in wind their entire careers, the numbers are not going to drop thru the floor IMHO, where it becomes a bigger factor IMO is the Kickers. 

Most teams don't throw it long down the field much any more, everything is short slants and stick routes, wind won't change those passes too much at 25 mph, just my opinion. 

Edited by Ministry of Pain
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2 minutes ago, jurrassic said:

Ticker on ESPN calling for 25 mph winds in the PHI/NYG game. That seems significant

I’m about 25 miles from the stadium and it doesn’t seem that bad right now. If you check East Rutherford, NJ on the Weather Channel app, seems like 15-20 mph winds. 

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It’s getting to the point where the weather looks bad in so many places like GB, Cle, Pitt, NY that I have players in each of those games. Just going to play my best options and hope for the best since the weather in those games is similar it appears.  

Edited by skillz
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8 minutes ago, jurrassic said:

Ticker on ESPN calling for 25 mph winds in the PHI/NYG game. That seems significant

Yeah...of course...why not.  Seriously...every single WR I have is in one of these windy games (or on a bye).  Fulgham, Cooks, Higgins, Chark.  Im basically just throwing darts at names at this point and likely playing 3 of them as I don't feel comfortable with my RB3s this week to flex any of them (Moss and Rojo).

Right now...Fulgham is just locked in to my lineup.  Chark is kind of a wait and see on Jaire Alexander.  If Jaire is out Chark is in.  Then Im between Cooks and Higgins.  Right now leaning Cooks.

Edit:  Jaire Alexander and Kevin King both out for GB...Chark now locked into my WR 2 spot.

Edited by sho nuff
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4 hours ago, Bracie Smathers said:

Just checked local radar and right now we are getting hit as the initial front moved through with high winds and heavy rain.  

The local radar has a 6 hour future forecast/projection and a little after kickoff it looks like another fast moving disturbance will move through and it pings hotter/redder on the radar so I expect some of the heaviest winds and rain to have an effect early if that projection holds true.  (obviously not 100% accurate)

UPDATE:  The previous fast-moving disturbance has dissipated to soft green cloud cover/very light rain but the winds remain high as the area is under HIGH WIND WARNING:

Cleveland, OH

Sunday 11 AM • Mostly Cloudy

 High Wind Warning

Today - Windy with a high of 56 °F (13.3 °C) and a 45% chance of precipitation. Winds from S to SW at 22 to 29 mph (35.4 to 46.7 kph).

-----------------------------------------------

The clouds look to burn off around 1:30 with what look like clear skies for the remainder of the game but as noted previously it is subject to change.  Right now it is clear with sunshine peeking through but the winds are high and should remain high during the game.

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1 minute ago, Ministry of Pain said:

I caution folks who rationalize how they themselves would fare in these conditions. These are men who have been playing in wind their entire careers, the numbers are not going to drop thru the floor IMHO, where it becomes a bigger factor IMO is the Kickers. 

Most teams don't throw it long down the field much any more, everything is short slants and stick routes, wind won't change those passes too much at 25 mph, just my opinion. 

I hear you. Definitely playing Adams, may bench Fuller for Sterling Shepherd. If you go back to Week 8, in which the conditions were similar in Cleveland,  Carr threw for 111 and Baker 122. That is a significant impact on the passing game

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45 minutes ago, Ministry of Pain said:

I caution folks who rationalize how they themselves would fare in these conditions. These are men who have been playing in wind their entire careers, the numbers are not going to drop thru the floor IMHO, where it becomes a bigger factor IMO is the Kickers. 

Most teams don't throw it long down the field much any more, everything is short slants and stick routes, wind won't change those passes too much at 25 mph, just my opinion. 

But aren’t the kickers also men who have been playing in wind their entire careers?

The answer is no.... they are not men, they are kickers.

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