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RB Javonte Williams, DEN (2 Viewers)

Definitely not saying he is at this level (obviously) but his style reminds me of Emmitt Smith...quick feet, physical, not a legit burner but has enough speed, good vision, gets positive yards, got that bowling ball in traffic feel to him, able to play three downs...gonna be real interesting to see where these top three RBs land.

 
Thor Nystrom’s RB1:

2021 NFL DRAFT RB RANKINGS

Excerpt:

1. Javonte Williams (UNC) | 5'10/220

Comp: Nick Chubb

Javonte Williams was a high school state legend in North Carolina -- the valedictorian of his class who won four straight football state titles and a state title in the 4x100 relay -- but because of circumstances you may not be as familiar with him as you are Najee Harris and Travis Etienne. We never got to see Williams in the CFB playoff, for one, and, due to sharing a backfield with Day 2 prospect RB Michael Carter, Williams didn’t crack 1,000 yards rushing for the first time until 2020.

Last season was Williams’ national coming-out party. He ran for 1,140 yards and 19 TD on 7.3 YPC while posting a 25-305-3 line as a receiver. His tape against Miami (236 yards) specifically could be hung in the Louvre. And here’s the thing: He was 20-years old on that tape! Williams won’t turn 21 until just after the draft. He’s three months younger than Etienne, and more than two years younger than Harris. Among the top running backs prospects in this class, the guys with relevance, Williams is the youngest of them all.

Williams played linebacker earlier in his high school career. Physicality isn’t just a staple of his game, it's inherent to who is as a body-in-space mover. Such is the natural way disparate concepts like violence, balance, feet, vision and bounce coalesce, right there in front you, play after play, in Williams' catalogue of film.

The area of Williams’ game that really improved from college coaching was reading blocks, setting up blockers, and timing and decisiveness into and through the hole -- for instance, pausing behind pulling blockers and recognizing the moment he should punch the gas. You’ll notice, as he does, that he always squares his shoulders to the line, fortifying and readying himself for contact while getting into a sprinter’s stance towards the goal line.

As that area of his game improved, he exploded as a player. Because here’s the thing: Javonte Williams is utterly devastating in the second level. You don’t want him to get there, because he’s going to make a linebacker look silly. He does that with movement and outright violence. 

When Williams makes a decision, he accelerates as quickly as any back his size in this draft, taking the outside with impunity if you give it to him, and then he’s screaming downhill with zero remorse for human life. There is no hesitation, no dancing, no slowing-down to survey the field. After Javonte Williams’ initial acceleration occurs on a run, he’s going to be a bat out of hell screaming upfield until the moment the defense can get him down -- if they can get him down.

Williams is buoyed by a wicked stiff-arm and the extra force you get from running full speed with zero hesitation into every confrontation, which works for him because Williams also might have the best contact balance of any back we’ve seen enter the draft the past few classes. 

Williams can absorb a comical amount of force and keep churning forward (he flattened many stunned ACC defenders the past few seasons). It’s not just that. When he takes a clean enough hit to lose his balance, for instance, you’ll see Williams, stumbling, reflexively stick his non-ball hand to the turf to right himself. Or if he can’t, he'll keep kicking his feet into the turf to back-pedal for a few more yards until his butt hits the turf, bringing about the whistle. You won't have to have an Al Pacino in Any Given Sunday conversation with Javonte Williams about clawing for every inch -- that's in his DNA.

Williams is a master at subtle movements in the split-seconds leading up to contact, making him even more dangerous in these situations. Defenders, having done their homework, know Williams can drop the hammer with a force they haven’t seen before. So they adjust for this, fortifying their bases and approaching perhaps with more discipline and caution than usual, as though standing in a cage with a lion wearing a hamburger neckless.

Williams, a clever devil, will drop his pad level to alter the defender's strike zone or tilt his shoulders to shrink it in those precious milliseconds before the defender must commit, giving Williams a head-start in an interaction he entered as the heavy betting favorite in as is.

Last season, Williams led the nation with 76 broken tackles on only 157 attempts(!!!), breaking the PFF record for broken tackles per attempt (because he broke one on average every-other run!!!). He was easily tops in the country with 23 runs that gained 10-or-more yards after first contact. This is an area of his game that will absolutely translate to the next level.

Williams does not have Travis Etienne’s burst, nor his long-speed. No. But he doesn’t play that way. He plays more like Najee Harris, and he has more long speed and burst than Harris does (Williams will likely be a low 4.5 guy, with Harris in the high-4.5s or even low-4.6s). He can take the outside in a way Harris can’t, and he can get into the third level quicker. His tape reveals more seperation from defenders at full speed. Any big plays Williams provides are a bonus because, in baseball parlance, he rarely strikes out.

He gained 10 yards or more on 26.8% of his attempts, an absurd output, and ranked No. 2 in the country with 27 carries of 15 yards or more. This behind a UNC offensive line that over the last two seasons ranked No. 71 and 74, respectively, in power success rate, No. 49 and 101 in Football Outsiders' stuff rate, and No. 91 and 81 in PFF run-block grading. Despite running behind that shoddy offensive line, Williams finished 2020 with a 95.9 rushing grade that was the highest of the PFF College era.

Harris is a better receiver, it’s true. But Williams is probably better in this area of the game than he’s given credit for. On 58 career targets over the last three years, Williams caught 49 balls (84.5%) and only dropped four catchable throws. And he's more than a screen guy, ranking No. 22 out of 98 qualified RBs last season with 1.64 yards per route run.

Williams only fumbled three times in college -- you can trust his hands. He would have been given much more work in this area had it not been for the presence of Michael Carter, a truly fabulous receiver out of the backfield. But Williams did usurp Carter as UNC’s preferred blocking back in 2020, with 64 pass-pro reps to Carter’s 32. Williams allowed only two hurries and two pressures in those reps.

Carter’s presence, plus Williams’ early declaration, means Williams not only enters the league young, but with less history of abuse than most runners his ilk. Williams only had 416 touches from scrimmage in college. Najee Harris had 294 touches from scrimmage last season.

Though Javonte never handled a monster workload at UNC, I have no doubt about his ability to be an all-day three-down NFL bell-cow due to his skillset, versatility, play-style and durability. One area I’d like to see him improve in is just an experience thing -- further development reading his blockers, setting them up and refining that moment he hits the accelerator.

For a runner so talented, young, and fresh, I’m not only confident in his ability to do do, and additionally prove he's a plus in the passing game with more usage, but sustain excellence in the NFL for years after having so done.
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Greg Cosel has a mixed history of hits and misses (don't they all) but he was on Ross tucker's podcast and i think he called Williams his favorite RB. He won't do rankings,  but said Williams was his favorite "feature" back in the draft. 

 
Boston said:
Definitely not saying he is at this level (obviously) but his style reminds me of Emmitt Smith...quick feet, physical, not a legit burner but has enough speed, good vision, gets positive yards, got that bowling ball in traffic feel to him, able to play three downs...gonna be real interesting to see where these top three RBs land.
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I want to 2nd the Emmitt Smith comparison. This guys balance and intuition running is insane.

Dude will be a pro bowler.

 
Alex P Keaton said:
I would very much dislike seeing him in Tampa.  Particularly for FF purposes.
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Fair is fair, but a dynamic all around back like Williams would make that offense even more dangerous.  They were able to do what they did with Jones/Fournette contributing nothing in the passing game.  That being said, I think they'll have to use their top two picks to replace free agents they're going to lose. 

 
Grahamburn said:
Fair is fair, but a dynamic all around back like Williams would make that offense even more dangerous.  They were able to do what they did with Jones/Fournette contributing nothing in the passing game.  That being said, I think they'll have to use their top two picks to replace free agents they're going to lose. 
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Brady will just spread around the ball like he did in NE.

 
FMIA: In This 2021 NFL Draft Primer, Uncertainty Is No. 1 Overall Prospect

Excerpt:

Running backs high in the draft are out of style, but not to Jeremiah. He loves Clemson’s Travis Etienne and Alabama’s Najee Harris, and the prospect who might be his favorite player in the draft (encompassing value as well as talent) is a likely second-rounder, North Carolina’s Javonte Williams. Jeremiah thinks Williams could end up being the best back in the draft. “Not often a running back is the leader of your football team,” Jeremiah said, “but Javonte Williams was at North Carolina.”
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rockaction said:
This guy's stock keeps going up, even in comparison to Harris and Etienne, if my Twitter feed is to be believed.
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Look for the negatives...as well as the positives.... Something dynasty players can't seem to do, including me.  We get sucked into group think almost every year.  Something I'm trying like hell to avoid now.   Watch this video and it may give you a better perspective concerning Javonte Williams. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3AcLYdqG8aU&ab_channel=DynastyFootballFlock

 
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JohnnyU said:
Look for the negatives...as well as the positives.... Something dynasty players can't seem to do, including me.  We get sucked into group think almost every year.  Something I'm trying like hell to avoid now.   Watch this video and it may give you a better perspective concerning Javonte Williams. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3AcLYdqG8aU&ab_channel=DynastyFootballFlock
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Thanks. I'm watching their speed and burst scores (though how will we get them this year) and their draft capital. But any criticism to the contrary helps. 

What I heard the other day is that he ran track and won state titles in high school. That made me gulp a little bit.

 
Alex P Keaton said:
Mostly looks like terrible blocking.  I didn’t really see a lane to cut back into.
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I saw an area that he could have plunged into and maybe got like 3 yards. Or been stuffed into a no gainer. Not a huge difference but if there is a trend here it could be a problem.

 
Daniel Jeremiah Likes North Carolina RB Javonte Williams As ‘Great Fit’ For Steelers In First Round

Excerpt:

Jeremiah was asked during his call if he believes that Alabama running back Najee Harris will still be on the board at 24 overall in the first round for the Steelers to select if they want him and if not, if he thinks there is a particular offensive lineman that he could see them picking in that spot instead. Jeremiah’s answer was quite interesting and included him going far away from Harris.

“Yeah, I wouldn’t just be limited to Harris,” Jeremiah said. “I’m getting ready to update my list. The next time I update it I am probably going to have Javonte Williams from North Carolina over Harris. He is a really good player. To me he would be a great, great fit with Pittsburgh. I wouldn’t have any problems. I know people kind of look at the running back thing one way or the other. When you’re picking down there in the bottom of the first round and you’ve got a chance to get an impact player like Javonte Williams from North Carolina, to me, I think that would be a heck of a pick.”

Jeremiah went on to give a current running back in the AFC North as his comp for Javonte Williams.

“He’s just like Nick Chubb, and when you watch him you see it,” Jeremiah said of Williams. “When you talk to the coaches at North Carolina that have been — they have some coaches there that have come from Georgia, and they say that the similarities are eerie, just they’re all business, physical, great leaders, can catch the ball out of the backfield, can do a lot of different things. I wouldn’t just limit it to him.”

Later in the call, Jeremiah was again asked about Williams and specifically, why the North Carolina product seems to be a late riser of sorts in the pre-draft process.

“On Javonte, I loved him from the first tape that I popped on,” Jeremiah said of Williams. “I didn’t hear much about him during the fall. They ran the heck out of him. Him and Michael Carter, their other running back at North Carolina that is another really good player, who’s probably going to go in the third round. They had a great backfield.

“But the reason why I think you’re starting to see — continue the buzz to build on him, because to me he’s a complete back. When you look at the combination of [Travis] Etienne, who’s maybe a little bit undersized but has big time juice, big time speed, then you have Najee Harris who’s 230 pounds. He has balance and can bang inside but can also get involved in the pass game.”

Jeremiah continued with more of his thoughts on Williams.

“This kid kind of gives you a little bit of everything,” Jeremiah said. “He’s 220 pounds but he has big time burst and he’s got really good vision, and to me while you’re starting to see him pop up more, he’s my 32nd player as I mentioned, he’s going to continue to go up because everything I keep digging on and finding out from the school and finding out from guys that have been around him and coached him and played with him is the kid’s wiring is off the charts. In a year where we don’t maybe have as much information, when you get a kid who’s got great tape, who’s got high, weight, speed and now the character and the work ethic is off the charts, you bet on those kids.’

That’s certainly quite a bit of thoroughness from Jeremiah so I guess we can expect his next draft positional rankings to have Williams ranked ahead of Harris, who most of us have already seen linked to the Steelers in mock drafts quite a bit so far this offseason.

In case you did not know already, Williams, who will turn 21 in April, declared for the 2021 NFL Draft back in late December. For his college career, he rushed for 2,297 yards and 29 touchdowns in addition to catching 50 passes for another 539 yards and four touchdowns. 25 of his runs resulted in gains of 20 yards or longer and 84 of them resulted in gains of 10 yards or longer.

The 2021 North Carolina pro day is scheduled to take place on Monday, March 29 and so it will be interesting to see if either Steelers general manager Kevin Colbert or head coach Mike Tomlin, or both, are in attendance for it. The last time the Steelers selected a running back in the first round of a draft was in 2008 when they picked Rashard Mendenhall 23rd overall. Mendenhall was also an underclassman that year and just 20 years of age.
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I've been doing this awhile. This guy is a can't miss. He will have the best burst and vision on 70% of NFL teams.

Him in a plodder role in Arizona would be great.

 
Anyone thinking he is a plodder are just being lazy.  He has good burst through the hole.  Long speed isn't his game, vision, breaking tackles, contact balance, and catching the ball is.

 
CFB Sicko said:
I've been doing this awhile. This guy is a can't miss. He will have the best burst and vision on 70% of NFL teams.

Him in a plodder role in Arizona would be great.
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So have I. There's definitely a way he can miss. He doesn't have a full all around game. He's above average at a lot of things though so I remain very hopeful. Everyone can miss when it comes to NFL prospects. Plenty of that talk last year about N'Keal Harry the undisputed WR1 of last years class to a lot of people. Or the most famous RB getting that tag of Trent Richardson. 

In the end we don't know, but he seems to be primed for RB2 type of value right away, with an RB1 ceiling. I really like him, but he isn't even better than ANY of the top4 RB's from last year (Taylor, Swift, Akers, Dobbins). 

No long speed could cripple him in certain situations and be a rotational player. This is the fantasy perspective, not the NFL one. At best he's a better Josh Jacobs (bottom tier RB1). At worst he's bad Jordan Howard. 

 
Zyphros said:
So have I. There's definitely a way he can miss. He doesn't have a full all around game. He's above average at a lot of things though so I remain very hopeful. Everyone can miss when it comes to NFL prospects. Plenty of that talk last year about N'Keal Harry the undisputed WR1 of last years class to a lot of people. Or the most famous RB getting that tag of Trent Richardson. 

In the end we don't know, but he seems to be primed for RB2 type of value right away, with an RB1 ceiling. I really like him, but he isn't even better than ANY of the top4 RB's from last year (Taylor, Swift, Akers, Dobbins). 

No long speed could cripple him in certain situations and be a rotational player. This is the fantasy perspective, not the NFL one. At best he's a better Josh Jacobs (bottom tier RB1). At worst he's bad Jordan Howard. 
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Bro, he's Emmitt Smith. You have to see this.

 
King of the Jungle said:
Burst and plodder seem to contradict each other.
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He wouldn't be catching passes in AZ (better players to do this there). But he would be a 2-down, goalline back similar to Drake's usage last year. He's in there on 1st down, 2nd down, and 3rd down IF it's 3rd and short.

 
CFB Sicko said:
He wouldn't be catching passes in AZ (better players to do this there). But he would be a 2-down, goalline back similar to Drake's usage last year. He's in there on 1st down, 2nd down, and 3rd down IF it's 3rd and short.
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Then I think you want "early down" or "short yardage" status, rather than plodder status. But that's all semantics. Now I get what you're saying. But everyone seems to agree that a state track star doesn't have long speed. Which is odd, but the eye test says he doesn't have long speed, so I don't know. The NFL Combine would have been extra big this year to suss this guy out.

 
rockaction said:
But everyone seems to agree that a state track star doesn't have long speed. Which is odd, but the eye test says he doesn't have long speed, so I don't know.
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from what i saw he was on the champ 4x100 meter relay squad, but that is still a track star, so it is odd, and i looked up his profile as a prospect coming out of H.S.  he was listed as 195 lbs (and interestingly 5'11''), so he may be 25 lbs heavier now.

my eye test says he has enough long speed, way more than Leveon Bell for instance, ever had, and Bell was the best in the game for a couple years. and way more than Najee Harris.  but then i love the kid. i can call him kid because he's still only 20, which is another thing.

looking up his high school days, i was surprised to read that he wasn't a RB until his senior year.  his 1st love was defense (he runs like it) and he was a LB previously who averaged 16 tackles a game as a jr., but wasn't getting major school love, as he was considered too small for the position. so his high school coach thought he might be better off switching to RB. yeah maybe.

i knew that he was class valedictorian with a 4.6 GPA but didn't know his best offer until late in the recruiting process was from Yale.

i loved reading that team mate RB Michael Carter said that there are three things certain in life, "death, taxes, and that Javonte will be in class."  and "that's him, he's going to be on time for everything, he's going to be early because his last name is important to him."

almost makes me want to start playing dynasty fantasy football again so i can own him.

 
song said:
i knew that he was class valedictorian with a 4.6 GPA but didn't know his best offer until late in the recruiting process was from Yale.

i loved reading that team mate RB Michael Carter said that there are three things certain in life, "death, taxes, and that Javonte will be in class."  and "that's him, he's going to be on time for everything, he's going to be early because his last name is important to him."
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This is awesome.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
Yeah, like Myron Rolle did out of FSU.
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...or Robert Smith.  He went out on top and was considered a very smart guy.  Did he ever go to medical school that was mentioned back in the day?

ETA:  I believe teams should build the trenches first and expand outward.  How is the Lions' OL and DL?

 
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