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Javonte Williams - RB Broncos


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I'm getting going on prospect evaluation for 2021 and he came up as a guy I need to look into. He's looked incredible this year.

Probably a bit early, but I easily see him as a top5 RB of 2021. He's already made my favorites list so this is a guy I'll be hyping everywhere. 

Listed at 5'10 220, pretty much my perfect sized RB. He's as explosive as any RB in the class, and more so than anyone from 2020. It's between him and Etienne for that title. 

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Next time I have a thought I will make a cave drawing and post the picture here. 

I don’t understand why this would be upsetting. I love it. Gordon is trash and only has 1 year left in Denver. 

Sooner or later, folks are going to realize the era of the Bell Cow RB is over. Everyone is going to have some sort of timeshare. The trick now is to figure out, in a 60/40 split, which guy is go

19 hours ago, IHEARTFF said:

Looks good. Would be a nice late first dynasty pick if he can make it that far. 

 

42 minutes ago, strong said:

had this guy pegged as my 2nd round RB darling...

but each week that's looking more and more like a pipe dream.

with hubbard's flaws and gainwell's size, he really is making a case for RB3 in this class. 

There's some whispers already that some fantasy analysts on Twitter are putting him at RB1. And I have to say I don't hate it. If catching and size worry you I can see a scenario that I have him ahead of Etienne and Najee. 

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North Carolina junior RB Javonte Williams carried 13 times for 101 yards and a touchdown in a 59-52 victory over Wake Forest this Saturday.

Williams (5'10/220) had a relatively quiet day until he came alive in the fourth quarter to help UNC complete the thrilling come from behind victory. With North Carolina up by a touchdown late in the game, Wake Forest was forced to go for it on fourth-and-nine in their own end to keep their hopes alive. Converted quarterback Chazz Surratt sacked Sam Hartman for an 11 yard loss, setting up Williams' game clinching 15-yard touchdown run. It marks the fifth time in his last six games that the junior tailback has rushed for over 100-yards and a touchdown. 

Nov 14, 2020, 5:47 PM ET

 

 

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2021 NFL Draft: Biggest risers of 2020 include BYU QB Zach Wilson, North Carolina RB Javonte Williams

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Javonte Williams, RB, North Carolina

In 2019, Williams amassed 933 yards at 5.6 yards per pop as part of a legitimate timeshare in North Carolina's backfield. His teammate, Michael Carter, ran for over 1,000 as technically the "lead" back. 

This season, Williams has 1,140 yards on the ground at 7.3 yards per rush on one more carry to date than Carter. He's also scored a gargantuan 19 touchdowns and averaged a hefty 12.2 yards per catch on his 25 grabs. 

Diving deeper into his quantifiable profile, he's accumulating 4.59 yards after contact on the year, the sixth-highest figure among collegiate backs with at least 75 carries this season. Williams has also forced 83 missed tackles, the most among any FBS player in the country and 15 forced missed tackles clear of No. 2 on the list, Najee Harris from Alabama. 

Williams has inserted himself into the discussion of top backs in the 2021 class and is now the favorite to be the third runner off the board in April.

 

 

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2020 highlights

I am seeing a good variety of skills exhibited in the above clip. He has good footwork and shows patience to set up some of these runs. One of them a defender is very close before he changes direction, pressing the hole and leading to a big play. He seems to have eyes in he back of his head on a couple plays, showing me he understood the defenders leverage and speed to time his cut so the defender will miss the angle from the back side of the play. He also shows good acceleration to hit the crease when its there right away.

He runs with good pad level and power to break tackles and gain yards after contact. He has an active stiff arm and can use the off arm to help swim out of tackle attempts.

He has good not great change of direction skill. He understands this and plays within himself.

Overall my impression of him is that he is a good, not great RB. 2-3rd round NFL pick?

eta - I love the spin move. I saw that twice I think. Another tool he has. He looks good as a receiver on both downfield routes and quick flares.

Edited by Biabreakable
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3 hours ago, zed2283 said:

He looks great to me in those highlights.

Well they are highlights.

I haven't watched him much yet. Just my initial impression.

I know I did get excited about one of his plays. With highlight reels I usually have a few more than that.

He does catch the ball well and seems to do everything you want pretty well. I didnt see outstanding elusiveness, which isnt everything, but something I look for.

eta - on one of the plays he is getting to the second level and he wants to get to the right side of the field and has trouble changing direction as quickly as he wants to, he is using his off arm to do some swimming type moves to help him keep his balance while cutting to the outside that to me even full speed is somewhat laborious, This is a highlight play and he makes a good gain, but I also see he lacks stiffness in his hips to execute that without needing to grab air to keep his balance.

He loses his footing early on in a couple of the early plays that he is able to recover from. One ends up being a long gain, the defense is slow to react to his stumble and it turns into kind of like a kick return run. I don't expect NFL defenders to be so inept.

Edited by Biabreakable
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2021 NFL Draft: Ranking the top five players at each position

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Javonte Williams just put together a season the likes of which we’ve not seen before. He broke a ridiculous 75 tackles on only 157 attempts. To put into perspective how insane that is, those 75 broken tackles were six more than any other back last season despite him placing only 19th in total rushing attempts. Alabama's Najee Harris had 95 more carries and still broke fewer tackles. Williams' hard running style at 220 pounds should translate nicely.

 

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My biggest concern about Javonte looking through some stats was that he's been shut down or a not as great game. Now you can chalk that up to a bad game if you want, and I wanted to look a bit closer at his bad games. In 2020 he had 4 games of less than 100 total yards. I re-watched these games and had a few thoughts during each one.

Vs. Syracuse - 14 carries, 57 yards and 3 TD's. 1 catch for 22 yards

Couldn't find the whole game, or all his touches for this game but I did find the highlights which show his TD runs at least. He had 3 TD runs in this game, 1 he looked very slow and plodded his way in, the other 2 looked very bursty and broke some tackles for some nice inside the 5 yard line runs. Just a ho-hum type of game I imagine but the other games is where the party is. Nothing to be concerned so much here, just an below average outing. 

Vs. Virginia - 13 carries, 54 yards and 1 TD. 2 catches for 10 yards

This is actually my favorite game of his. There's about a 20 second window that gives you the glimpse of my favorite moments from him. There's also multiple other moments which are just super impressive. My favorite moments are from 0:38 - 0:58. The first run is a basic 4 yard run, but he's patient running behind his blocker, explodes to the hole when it opens, and it takes 4 guys to bring him down when there's only 2 blockers. The 2nd run is obvious why it's crazy good. Just watch. The strength is so good and he does it again at 1:25. There's another catch in this game at 3:58 which is just super impressive to me as well. I love this game for Javonte even if the stats aren't incredible. This just gives me more of a safe feeling than anything rather than a concern. 

Funny enough that same game has my least favorite moment that gives me a red flag for Michael Carter but this isn't about him. 

Vs. Notre Dame - 11 carries for 28 yards. 2 catches for 10 yards

His O-line looked completely dominated and had very little opportunity to do anything. I saw a bunch of good reads that he got whatever he could. Nothing glaring stood out other than slightly slower feet, probably because of the pressure he's faced with no time to get going. Clearly his worst game of 2020.

Vs. Western Carolina - 3 carries for 8 yards and 1 TD. 3 catches for 48 yards

It's very clear that he was used sparingly in this one. His routes were 2 swing passes out to the flat and 1 out and in over the middle. The out and in was a pretty poor route, but an amazing catch, a better route and that could have been a TD. They were up 35-3 at halftime and played the backups. Not concerned at all about the light workload. 

Looking back at these games, all it did was quell my concerns. He's my #1 RB for 2021 because of the pass catching, strength, quickness and burst. He has all the tools, built for a feature role, broke out early at 19, and very productive. He'll be 21 in a few months, a year and 2 months younger than Etienne, basically 2 years younger than Harris. 

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1 hour ago, kittenmittens said:

He's going to rise.  Seen him mocked at SF 1.04 behind only Najee. 

Ahead of Travis? FWIW, Tankathon has Javonte 6th. Najee, Travis, Kenneth Gainwell (Memphis), Chuba Hubbard (OkState), Trey Sermon (OSU).

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1 hour ago, SoBeDad said:

Ahead of Travis? FWIW, Tankathon has Javonte 6th. Najee, Travis, Kenneth Gainwell (Memphis), Chuba Hubbard (OkState), Trey Sermon (OSU).

Yes they had him as RB 2 ahead of Etienne.  In a superflex dynasty mock not nfl mock To be clear. 

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2 hours ago, Wigglytuff's Gruff said:

Pittsburgh in the 2nd at pick 55.

J.K. Dobbins went to the Ravens with pick 55 in the 2020 draft. The Dolphins were ready to select Dobbins with pick 56. I think Dobbins is better than Javonte, but each year is different.

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Is it worrisome that he only topped 150 carries per season in college? RBs like those are usually stuck in RBBC situations in the NFL....you know the Michaels/Harris'  and the only rare ones I can find are Kamara/Jacobs.

Does NC have a really good Oline? because Michael Carter is producing similar number if not better.

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9 hours ago, Wigglytuff's Gruff said:

Pittsburgh in the 2nd at pick 55.

If he landed there, he could very well become the 1.01 in many rookie drafts.

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15 hours ago, zamboni said:

If he landed there, he could very well become the 1.01 in many rookie drafts.

Possibly.

I'm a Steeler and I'd be looking for excuses not to take whoever landed in Pittsburgh after the season they've just had.

They didn't really even try to get the running game going this year, despite having a dominant D and what seemed to be the perfect situation to run the ball. Worst rushing attack in the entire league. 

James Conner is actually quite a good running back, he's not special, but it's absolutely not for his lack of talent that they were as inept as they were. They didn't even try most of the time. Roethlisberger largely led this offense and he didn't seem particularly interested in getting the run game going, instead choosing to pass the ball on average 42 times a game (highest in the league). 

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5 hours ago, Wigglytuff's Gruff said:

Possibly.

I'm a Steeler and I'd be looking for excuses not to take whoever landed in Pittsburgh after the season they've just had.

They didn't really even try to get the running game going this year, despite having a dominant D and what seemed to be the perfect situation to run the ball. Worst rushing attack in the entire league. 

James Conner is actually quite a good running back, he's not special, but it's absolutely not for his lack of talent that they were as inept as they were. They didn't even try most of the time. Roethlisberger largely led this offense and he didn't seem particularly interested in getting the run game going, instead choosing to pass the ball on average 42 times a game (highest in the league). 

Agreed on all accounts. I think Tomlin will do everything he can to revitalize the running game, as it seems to be his identity. Which is why I'm bullish on the Steelers feature RB role.    

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Daniel Jeremiah's top 50: 2021 NFL Draft prospect rankings 1.0

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34) Javonte Williams, RB

School: North Carolina | Year: Junior

Williams is a thick, compact running back with outstanding vision, power and quickness. He is quick to find/attack the hole with a bounce in his step on inside runs. He has tremendous lateral quickness to make defenders miss in tight quarters. He runs with a low pad level and accelerates through contact. Williams has the burst to get the edge on outside runs and he's elusive once he gets into the open field. He is effective as a checkdown option in the passing game and flashes some route polish on angle routes in the middle of the field. He has reliable hands, although you will see some double catches. He is aware in pass protection and can squat and absorb blitzers. Overall, Williams is a complete player and could emerge as the best running back in the 2021 class.

 

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I am really having a hard time rectifying the fact that Michael Carter played as well as Javonte Williams (notwithstanding the TDs).  Here's the stats:

Williams

  • Rushing - 157 att, 1140 yards, 19 TDs
  • Receiving - 25 rec, 305 yards, 3 TDs

Carter

  • Rushing - 156 att, 1245 yards, 9 TDs
  • Receiving - 25 rec, 267 yard, 2 TDs

Either Carter is a "special" player in his own right, or these stats are very much systems based.

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8 minutes ago, Blick said:

I am really having a hard time rectifying the fact that Michael Carter played as well as Javonte Williams (notwithstanding the TDs).  Here's the stats:

Williams

  • Rushing - 157 att, 1140 yards, 19 TDs
  • Receiving - 25 rec, 305 yards, 3 TDs

Carter

  • Rushing - 156 att, 1245 yards, 9 TDs
  • Receiving - 25 rec, 267 yard, 2 TDs

Either Carter is a "special" player in his own right, or these stats are very much systems based.

Carter was getting raves at the Senior Bowl and saw his stock skyrocket a bit. Probably by a round or so, if what I'm reading is correct. Waldman did a segment on him recently which you can probably track down (I hate going back through my Twitter feed to find stuff).

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1 hour ago, Blick said:

I am really having a hard time rectifying the fact that Michael Carter played as well as Javonte Williams (notwithstanding the TDs).  Here's the stats:

Williams

  • Rushing - 157 att, 1140 yards, 19 TDs
  • Receiving - 25 rec, 305 yards, 3 TDs

Carter

  • Rushing - 156 att, 1245 yards, 9 TDs
  • Receiving - 25 rec, 267 yard, 2 TDs

Either Carter is a "special" player in his own right, or these stats are very much systems based.

Sure, it's a projection, but Williams checks all of the NFL prototype 3 down RB boxes. Will it translate is the only question. Legit question though.

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He's been moving up the tankathon draft board. A few weeks ago he wasn't in the top 3 rounds. Then he was projected at 3.18 (Mia), then 3.04 (Atl). Now he's 3.03 (Hou), the 3rd RB off the board.

He shows good hands as a receiver, but does he know how to run routes? He breaks tackles, but lacks speed on tape. I prefer Etienne, who might go late first, or early 2nd.

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9 hours ago, Blick said:

I am really having a hard time rectifying the fact that Michael Carter played as well as Javonte Williams (notwithstanding the TDs).  Here's the stats:

Williams

  • Rushing - 157 att, 1140 yards, 19 TDs
  • Receiving - 25 rec, 305 yards, 3 TDs

Carter

  • Rushing - 156 att, 1245 yards, 9 TDs
  • Receiving - 25 rec, 267 yard, 2 TDs

Either Carter is a "special" player in his own right, or these stats are very much systems based.

It's a fair concern, but it does happen sometimes where college production relative to each other doesn't match up to NFL potential or production.

Laurence Maroney outplayed Marion Barber at Minnesota, for instance.  And Miles Sanders had almost identical rushing stats to Saquon Barkley at Penn State after he took over.

 

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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On 2/10/2021 at 9:58 PM, FreeBaGeL said:

It's a fair concern, but it does happen sometimes where college production relative to each other doesn't match up to NFL potential or production.

Laurence Maroney outplayed Marion Barber at Minnesota, for instance.  And Miles Sanders had almost identical rushing stats to Saquon Barkley at Penn State after he took over.

 

Lydell Mitchell and Franco Harris at Penn St. :)  Both were good pros.

Edited by JohnnyU
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This guy's stock keeps going up, even in comparison to Harris and Etienne, if my Twitter feed is to be believed.

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  • Zyphros changed the title to Javonte Williams - RB Broncos

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