1. Javonte Williams (UNC) | 5'10/220
Comp: Nick Chubb
Javonte Williams was a high school state legend in North Carolina -- the valedictorian of his class who won four straight football state titles and a state title in the 4x100 relay -- but because of circumstances you may not be as familiar with him as you are Najee Harris and Travis Etienne. We never got to see Williams in the CFB playoff, for one, and, due to sharing a backfield with Day 2 prospect RB Michael Carter, Williams didn’t crack 1,000 yards rushing for the first time until 2020.
Last season was Williams’ national coming-out party. He ran for 1,140 yards and 19 TD on 7.3 YPC while posting a 25-305-3 line as a receiver. His tape against Miami (236 yards) specifically could be hung in the Louvre. And here’s the thing: He was 20-years old on that tape! Williams won’t turn 21 until just after the draft. He’s three months younger than Etienne, and more than two years younger than Harris. Among the top running backs prospects in this class, the guys with relevance, Williams is the youngest of them all.
Williams played linebacker earlier in his high school career. Physicality isn’t just a staple of his game, it's inherent to who is as a body-in-space mover. Such is the natural way disparate concepts like violence, balance, feet, vision and bounce coalesce, right there in front you, play after play, in Williams' catalogue of film.
The area of Williams’ game that really improved from college coaching was reading blocks, setting up blockers, and timing and decisiveness into and through the hole -- for instance, pausing behind pulling blockers and recognizing the moment he should punch the gas. You’ll notice, as he does, that he always squares his shoulders to the line, fortifying and readying himself for contact while getting into a sprinter’s stance towards the goal line.
As that area of his game improved, he exploded as a player. Because here’s the thing: Javonte Williams is utterly devastating in the second level. You don’t want him to get there, because he’s going to make a linebacker look silly. He does that with movement and outright violence.
When Williams makes a decision, he accelerates as quickly as any back his size in this draft, taking the outside with impunity if you give it to him, and then he’s screaming downhill with zero remorse for human life. There is no hesitation, no dancing, no slowing-down to survey the field. After Javonte Williams’ initial acceleration occurs on a run, he’s going to be a bat out of hell screaming upfield until the moment the defense can get him down -- if they can get him down.
Williams is buoyed by a wicked stiff-arm and the extra force you get from running full speed with zero hesitation into every confrontation, which works for him because Williams also might have the best contact balance of any back we’ve seen enter the draft the past few classes.
Williams can absorb a comical amount of force and keep churning forward (he flattened many stunned ACC defenders the past few seasons). It’s not just that. When he takes a clean enough hit to lose his balance, for instance, you’ll see Williams, stumbling, reflexively stick his non-ball hand to the turf to right himself. Or if he can’t, he'll keep kicking his feet into the turf to back-pedal for a few more yards until his butt hits the turf, bringing about the whistle. You won't have to have an Al Pacino in Any Given Sunday conversation with Javonte Williams about clawing for every inch -- that's in his DNA.
Williams is a master at subtle movements in the split-seconds leading up to contact, making him even more dangerous in these situations. Defenders, having done their homework, know Williams can drop the hammer with a force they haven’t seen before. So they adjust for this, fortifying their bases and approaching perhaps with more discipline and caution than usual, as though standing in a cage with a lion wearing a hamburger neckless.
Williams, a clever devil, will drop his pad level to alter the defender's strike zone or tilt his shoulders to shrink it in those precious milliseconds before the defender must commit, giving Williams a head-start in an interaction he entered as the heavy betting favorite in as is.
Last season, Williams led the nation with 76 broken tackles on only 157 attempts(!!!), breaking the PFF record for broken tackles per attempt (because he broke one on average every-other run!!!). He was easily tops in the country with 23 runs that gained 10-or-more yards after first contact. This is an area of his game that will absolutely translate to the next level.
Williams does not have Travis Etienne’s burst, nor his long-speed. No. But he doesn’t play that way. He plays more like Najee Harris, and he has more long speed and burst than Harris does (Williams will likely be a low 4.5 guy, with Harris in the high-4.5s or even low-4.6s). He can take the outside in a way Harris can’t, and he can get into the third level quicker. His tape reveals more seperation from defenders at full speed. Any big plays Williams provides are a bonus because, in baseball parlance, he rarely strikes out.
He gained 10 yards or more on 26.8% of his attempts, an absurd output, and ranked No. 2 in the country with 27 carries of 15 yards or more. This behind a UNC offensive line that over the last two seasons ranked No. 71 and 74, respectively, in power success rate, No. 49 and 101 in Football Outsiders' stuff rate, and No. 91 and 81 in PFF run-block grading. Despite running behind that shoddy offensive line, Williams finished 2020 with a 95.9 rushing grade that was the highest of the PFF College era.
Harris is a better receiver, it’s true. But Williams is probably better in this area of the game than he’s given credit for. On 58 career targets over the last three years, Williams caught 49 balls (84.5%) and only dropped four catchable throws. And he's more than a screen guy, ranking No. 22 out of 98 qualified RBs last season with 1.64 yards per route run.
Williams only fumbled three times in college -- you can trust his hands. He would have been given much more work in this area had it not been for the presence of Michael Carter, a truly fabulous receiver out of the backfield. But Williams did usurp Carter as UNC’s preferred blocking back in 2020, with 64 pass-pro reps to Carter’s 32. Williams allowed only two hurries and two pressures in those reps.
Carter’s presence, plus Williams’ early declaration, means Williams not only enters the league young, but with less history of abuse than most runners his ilk. Williams only had 416 touches from scrimmage in college. Najee Harris had 294 touches from scrimmage last season.
Though Javonte never handled a monster workload at UNC, I have no doubt about his ability to be an all-day three-down NFL bell-cow due to his skillset, versatility, play-style and durability. One area I’d like to see him improve in is just an experience thing -- further development reading his blockers, setting them up and refining that moment he hits the accelerator.
For a runner so talented, young, and fresh, I’m not only confident in his ability to do do, and additionally prove he's a plus in the passing game with more usage, but sustain excellence in the NFL for years after having so done.