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Javonte Williams - RB Broncos


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5 minutes ago, rockaction said:

I'm not arbitrarily adding time to anything. It's pretty standard that you add .05 to a pro day. That's what Player Profiler is doing for the guys, and they're pretty thorough. Anybody saying you don't adjust for a pro day has their head in the sand. Look, you like your guy. I say he has red flags. That's about it. Typing as an advocate is not going to change his measurements. They're a little below what people would have hoped for, especially his smaller stature and his speed. The top three picks in the draft just got more solidified by consensus. Fantasy Pros has Williams as a "loser" because of his pro day. I'm not alone here.

And it's dumb. (Not saying you are rock. You good.)

It's basically saying that the field in Indianapolis is .5 seconds faster than anywhere else in America. That's absurd on its face.

But that is the advantage of having the Combine...you get to see results under the same conditions and guys relative to each other.

Edited by Andy Dufresne
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Next time I have a thought I will make a cave drawing and post the picture here. 

I don’t understand why this would be upsetting. I love it. Gordon is trash and only has 1 year left in Denver. 

Sooner or later, folks are going to realize the era of the Bell Cow RB is over. Everyone is going to have some sort of timeshare. The trick now is to figure out, in a 60/40 split, which guy is go

6 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

And it's dumb. (Not saying you are rock. You good.)

It's basically saying that the field in Indianapolis is .5 seconds faster than anywhere else in America. That's absurd on its face.

But that is the advantage of having the Combine...you get to see results under the same conditions and guys relative to each other.

Fair enough. There's no constant, which is the big thing. You're right. 

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19 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

And it's dumb. (Not saying you are rock. You good.)

It's basically saying that the field in Indianapolis is .5 seconds faster than anywhere else in America. That's absurd on its face.

But that is the advantage of having the Combine...you get to see results under the same conditions and guys relative to each other.

Rock said add 0.05 and not add 0.5. Not sure if that means anything.

I think people are overthinking the times for a powerful back being 4.55 or 4.6. 
To me the top three backs are still the same.

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I have his 40 at 4.56.

Draftscout has him at 4.57, and their times are running just .01 faster on average than last year's combine times.

Fusue Vue has him at 4.53 (based on counting frames in the video), and his times have been running .02 slower than draftscout times this year.

That puts him in the 4.52-4.58 range. Where in that range depends on how much you trust those two sources - I'm putting twice as much weight on draftscout which makes it 4.56. (I'm actually doing a slightly messier thing, but that still leaves it at 4.56.)

I've posted some more things about my method in these two threads.

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1 hour ago, Blackbear said:

Rock said add 0.05 and not add 0.5. Not sure if that means anything.

I think people are overthinking the times for a powerful back being 4.55 or 4.6. 
To me the top three backs are still the same.

Oh, I didn't even see Andy say that. I think I took for granted he meant .05 and I proceeded from there. Thanks for clarifying, Blackbear. But I think he meant .05 for the sake of argument. That said, when it comes to the larger picture, I think he and I and you and JohnnyU are on reasonably the same page, and we should all enjoy either our holiday, or this nice April Sunday, whichever you'd prefer to celebrate.

We're such football junkies. :)

 

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16 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Oh, I didn't even see Andy say that. I think I took for granted he meant .05 and I proceeded from there. Thanks for clarifying, Blackbear. But I think he meant .05 for the sake of argument. That said, when it comes to the larger picture, I think he and I and you and JohnnyU are on reasonably the same page, and we should all enjoy either our holiday, or this nice April Sunday, whichever you'd prefer to celebrate.

We're such football junkies. :)

 

I’m ready for the draft.  I’m actually tired of prospecting.

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1 hour ago, JohnnyU said:

I’m ready for the draft.  I’m actually tired of prospecting.

Yeah, I've gathered that you're ready for this to be over. Well, it's less than a month to go until the draft, and then we hopefully have rookie drafts soon after. The adjustment after the draft will be interesting. We'll see how it all goes.

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On 4/4/2021 at 7:51 PM, Andy Dufresne said:

And it's dumb. (Not saying you are rock. You good.)

It's basically saying that the field in Indianapolis is .5 seconds faster than anywhere else in America. That's absurd on its face.

But that is the advantage of having the Combine...you get to see results under the same conditions and guys relative to each other.

I am on the same page as everyone here but the argument for adding time to the combine isn't a difference in the track. It is a supposed difference in how the times are calculated. Supposedly the combine is the only place where they use video replay to track when the 40 starts. You can laser stop the finish line and people are able to anticipate when a runner will cross a line. However, what people aren't as good as capturing is when someone will start running. The time difference comes from the delay in our brain at the beginning, not the end. I can't vouch for it but this is what the people who run Playerprofiler cite as the reason behind thousands of prospects over a decade being on average a little faster at pro days than combines. 

I think the exact time isn't really that important. We should be thinking of it in ranges since we know there isn't a direct line showing the faster the 40, the better the NFL player. If one guy runs a 4.36 and another runs a 4.40, we shouldn't give that difference much weight. Both guys are super fast. Also it is a really small so its not worth sweating over whether the 4.40 guy would run a 4.45 at the combine or if he lost 4 pounds would he run 4.38, etc. 

Edited by Ilov80s
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1 hour ago, Ilov80s said:

I am on the same page as everyone here but the argument for adding time to the combine isn't a difference in the track. It is a supposed difference in how the times are calculated. Supposedly the combine is the only place where they use video replay to track when the 40 starts. You can laser stop the finish line and people are able to anticipate when a runner will cross a line. However, what people aren't as good as capturing is when someone will start running. The supposed delay comes from the delay in our brain at the beginning, not the end. I can't vouch for it but this is what the people who run Playerprofiler cite as the reason behind thousands of prospects over a decade being on average a little faster at pro days than combines. 

I think the exact time isn't really that important. We should be thinking of it in ranges since we know there isn't a direct line showing the faster the 40, the better the NFL player. If one guy runs a 4.36 and another runs a 4.40, we shouldn't give that difference much weight. Both guys are super fast. Also it is a really small so its not worth sweating over whether the 4.40 guy would run a 4.3 at the pro day or if he lost 4 pounds would he run 4.38, etc. 

no offense. But is there any way you could make a point in two sentences? 

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4 minutes ago, Blackbear said:

no offense. But is there any way you could make a point in two sentences? 

I will make my points in whatever length I want. No offense. 

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3 minutes ago, Blackbear said:

Look over what you wrote. Is there any way you could condense it a bit? 

Next time I have a thought I will make a cave drawing and post the picture here. 

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19 hours ago, Blackbear said:

Look over what you wrote. Is there any way you could condense it a bit? 

You are joking right? You make 5 straight different posts, a sentence each. I’ve resisted saying anything but now I see you criticizing others? Lay off the submit button. 

 

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I think we should communicate with whatever brevity or lack there of as we feel is needed so long as we aren't intentionally clogging a thread up. Anyway, back to the topic at hand: Javonte Williams.

If Williams becomes a top 5 dynasty RB, what trait or or situation do we see as being most responsible for that? What could propel him to stardom?

If Williams busts, what trait or situation do we see as being most likely to cause that? What could derail him? 

Edited by Ilov80s
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If he succeeds, he'll look like Ezekiel Elliott. He'll have sufficient speed that's compensated for by just being an excellent runner of the ball with burst to the hole.

If he fails, he'll look like Josh Jacobs where his lack of elite speed shows up on the field and defenders close off his angles. 

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26 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

If he succeeds, he'll look like Ezekiel Elliott. He'll have sufficient speed that's compensated for by just being an excellent runner of the ball with burst to the hole.

If he fails, he'll look like Josh Jacobs where his lack of elite speed shows up on the field and defenders close off his angles. 

Interesting using Jacobs as a failure comp. Is that just play style or do think Jacobs is a big miss for fantasy?

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5 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Interesting using Jacobs as a failure comp. Is that just play style or do think Jacobs is a big miss for fantasy?

To me he just looks like he's running under water. He's almost good.

But there's a reason they brought Drake in.

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1 hour ago, Andy Dufresne said:

If he succeeds, he'll look like Ezekiel Elliott. He'll have sufficient speed that's compensated for by just being an excellent runner of the ball with burst to the hole.

If he fails, he'll look like Josh Jacobs where his lack of elite speed shows up on the field and defenders close off his angles. 

I think these are excellent comps, but Elliott had a speed score of 112.7 and was in the 94th percentile because of weight. He ran a 4.47 at 225 or so. That's considered extraordinary. If anything, Javonte Williams reminds me of James Robinson, or at least, he needs a burst score like James Robinson to compensate metrically what he lacks in speed score.

Javonte's speed score -- I've calculated it -- is anywhere from a 98.84, if you take his best pro day time and don't add anything to it -- to about a 92 if you take his worst and add .05. So it's not top end for sure, and ranges anywhere from Deejay Dallas to CEH, neither of which are burners. In the middle of those scores is Zack Moss, so there's that comparison. Moss finished with a 46 percentile speed score running about .05 to .02 slower with more weight than Williams.

As far as Williams's broad, vertical, and three-cone go, they're all average to very slightly above-average. They're not like James Robinson, who did really well on burst score metrics.

I gotta tell you, I keep looking for the athleticism and don't see it. Perhaps that's just me, but it doesn't look like the proof is in the pudding.

Edited by rockaction
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15 minutes ago, rockaction said:

 

I gotta tell you, I keep looking for the athleticism and don't see it. Perhaps that's just me, but it doesn't look like the proof is in the pudding.

I can't shake the feeling either. It's one thing to have contact balance when you're being tackled by a guy who will be a phy ed teacher right after graduation, it's another when facing NFL-ers.

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48 minutes ago, rockaction said:

I think these are excellent comps, but Elliott had a speed score of 112.7 and was in the 94th percentile because of weight. He ran a 4.47 at 225 or so. That's considered extraordinary. If anything, Javonte Williams reminds me of James Robinson, or at least, he needs a burst score like James Robinson to compensate metrically what he lacks in speed score.

Javonte's speed score -- I've calculated it -- is anywhere from a 98.84, if you take his best pro day time and don't add anything to it -- to about a 92 if you take his worst and add .05. So it's not top end for sure, and ranges anywhere from Deejay Dallas to CEH, neither of which are burners. In the middle of those scores is Zack Moss, so there's that comparison. Moss finished with a 46 percentile speed score running about .05 to .02 slower with more weight than Williams.

As far as Williams's broad, vertical, and three-cone go, they're all average to very slightly above-average. They're not like James Robinson, who did really well on burst score metrics.

I gotta tell you, I keep looking for the athleticism and don't see it. Perhaps that's just me, but it doesn't look like the proof is in the pudding.

When people are comparing him David Montgomery as if that's a good thing, I also get worried. 

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1 minute ago, Ilov80s said:

When people are comparing him David Montgomery as if that's a good thing, I also get worried. 

Yeah, I thought I was the only one, actually. What separates Jacobs and Montgomery from the pack is that they are (or were) in great situations and could make people miss or break tackles. The latter was Williams's game at NC, I guess. Will that translate to the pros? I've just always been underwhelmed by his highlights, but was going along with the hype-building consensus that surrounded him. I think we have enough data and enough people watching film to get a generalized consensus on him once again.

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21 hours ago, rockaction said:

Yeah, I thought I was the only one, actually. What separates Jacobs and Montgomery from the pack is that they are (or were) in great situations and could make people miss or break tackles. The latter was Williams's game at NC, I guess. Will that translate to the pros? I've just always been underwhelmed by his highlights, but was going along with the hype-building consensus that surrounded him. I think we have enough data and enough people watching film to get a generalized consensus on him once again.

Sometimes in college breaking a lot of tackles means you aren't athletic enough to avoid tacklers. Sure ETN doesn't break tackles as often as Williams but that is in large part because defenders don't touch him nearly as often.

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59 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Sometimes in college breaking a lot of tackles means you aren't athletic enough to avoid tacklers. Sure ETN doesn't break tackles as often as Williams but that is in large part because defenders don't touch him nearly as often.

Those holes won’t be there in the NFL as often, especially for someone that doesn’t show a lot can’t miss in him.  What was wide as a car in college may be the size of a phone booth in the NFL.

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15 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Those holes won’t be there in the NFL as often, especially for someone that doesn’t show a lot can’t miss in him.  What was wide as a car in college may be the size of a phone booth in the NFL.

Sure but what does that say about a player who had these large college holes and still had to break a lot of tackles? Was still contacted by defenders regularly? Will he be able to break the tackles from NFL defenders? Lots of questions and it is really hard to judge who translates. I just side with the guy who was better at avoiding defenders.

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1 hour ago, Ilov80s said:

Sometimes in college breaking a lot of tackles means you aren't athletic enough to avoid tacklers. Sure ETN doesn't break tackles as often as Williams but that is in large part because defenders don't touch him nearly as often.

Oh, I agree with this wholeheartedly and it was what I was getting at. You hate to see broken tackles leaders in college, really, because as Andy pointed out, you can break all the tackles in the world from future phys ed. teachers but that doesn't necessarily translate into breaking them against current NFL-ers.

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22 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Sure but what does that say about a player who had these large college holes and still had to break a lot of tackles? Was still contacted by defenders regularly? Will he be able to break the tackles from NFL defenders? Lots of questions and it is really hard to judge who translates. I just side with the guy who was better at avoiding defenders.

ETN doesn’t have a lot of can’t miss in his game. If the holes aren’t there he isn’t the type of back that can create on his own.  He’s wiggle less and impatient.

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Just now, JohnnyU said:

ETN doesn’t have a lot of can’t miss in his game. If the holes aren’t there he isn’t the type of back that can create on his own.  He’s wiggle less and impatient.

He isn't Barry Sanders or LeSean McCoy but you don't need to be IMO. Bust, changing of speed, use of angles are more effective than stop-starts, etc. 

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2 minutes ago, Blackbear said:

Yawn. 🙂

3 down potential. 

Potential, sure. I don't see anything special from his pass catching though. Not sure it's a plus skill for him relative to this class. 

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1 minute ago, Ilov80s said:

Potential, sure. I don't see anything special from his pass catching though. Not sure it's a plus skill for him relative to this class. 

He’s a fine receiver out of the backfield.  Not sure what you’re watching.

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4 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

He’s a fine receiver out of the backfield.  Not sure what you’re watching.

I agree, he is fine. 

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On 4/6/2021 at 6:00 PM, Ilov80s said:

If Williams becomes a top 5 dynasty RB, what trait or or situation do we see as being most responsible for that? What could propel him to stardom?

1) his will

2) continued development of his RB instincts and skills. he didn't play RB till he was a senior in H.S. and was never close to being THE feature back in his 3 years at UNC.

if he busts: injury.

disappoints: a run blocking OL as pathetic as last year's Steelers.

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On 4/16/2021 at 8:34 PM, Alex P Keaton said:

Interesting.  Their worst case compares him to Arian Foster.  He doesn’t remind me of Foster at all.

He doesn't remind me of Foster, because Foster was tall and loping and not a tackle breaking machine. But Foster actually had lousy measurable times like Williams, but maybe worse. Football Outsiders has gone as far to say that those that test as seriously low on their Speedscore measurement as Foster did have either very little success in the NFL, or they're Arian Foster.

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29 minutes ago, rockaction said:

He doesn't remind me of Foster, because Foster was tall and loping and not a tackle breaking machine. But Foster actually had lousy measurable times like Williams, but maybe worse. Football Outsiders has gone as far to say that those that test as seriously low on their Speedscore measurement as Foster did have either very little success in the NFL, or they're Arian Foster.

Seems much more in the Chris Carson-Ahmad Bradshaw-Kerryon Johnson mold to me. Super physical but lacking speed. 

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1 minute ago, Ilov80s said:

Seems much more in the Chris Carson-Ahmad Bradshaw-Kerryon Johnson mold to me. Super physical but lacking speed. 

Bradshaw is another guy with an outlier career regarding Football Outsiders's Speedscore. One of the very few. Nobody worse than him has ever been successful in the NFL, defining success as...well...I forget.

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37 minutes ago, rockaction said:

He doesn't remind me of Foster, because Foster was tall and loping and not a tackle breaking machine. But Foster actually had lousy measurable times like Williams, but maybe worse. Football Outsiders has gone as far to say that those that test as seriously low on their Speedscore measurement as Foster did have either very little success in the NFL, or they're Arian Foster.

Yeah, I understand.  I still don’t see how Arian Foster would be a good comparison for him for the purposes of the link.  I would have a thought of a guy like Alexander Mattison or someone like that.  In terms of playing style, he’s literally nothing like Foster.

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2 minutes ago, Alex P Keaton said:

Yeah, I understand.  I still don’t see how Arian Foster would be a good comparison for him for the purposes of the link.  I would have a thought of a guy like Alexander Mattison or someone like that.  In terms of playing style, he’s literally nothing like Foster.

Oh, I was agreeing with you. They don't remind me of each other in the least.

eta* Also, worst case being Arian Foster is quite lofty. Most guys would beg for the few years Foster had. He was a bona fide superstar.

Edited by rockaction
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4 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Seems much more in the Chris Carson-Ahmad Bradshaw-Kerryon Johnson mold to me. Super physical but lacking speed. 

He doesn’t remind me of Bradshaw either, and Bradshaw doesn’t remind me of Chris Carson.

Chris Carson and Javonte though, yeah, I could see that somewhat.

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