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Javonte Williams - RB Broncos


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31 minutes ago, Alex P Keaton said:

He doesn’t remind me of Bradshaw either, and Bradshaw doesn’t remind me of Chris Carson.

Chris Carson and Javonte though, yeah, I could see that somewhat.

Not really a perfect comp, just looking at players who were similar in size, athleticism and a hard nosed physical running style.  

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Next time I have a thought I will make a cave drawing and post the picture here. 

In the 9 games they played together last year, Gordon and Phillip Lindsay had 123 and 118 carries, respectively. The OC hasn't changed. If Gordon shared so many carries with a guy the Broncos unc

I don’t understand why this would be upsetting. I love it. Gordon is trash and only has 1 year left in Denver. 

6 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Not really a perfect comp, just looking at players who were similar in size, athleticism and a hard nosed physical running style.  

How about Marshawn Lynch, but is better in the passing game?

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7 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

How about Marshawn Lynch, but is better in the passing game?

You're way, way too high on this guy. Lynch has a case for the HoF, kinda sorta. The years in BUF hurt him. But Marshawn Lynch? That's the weed talking to that author.

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Lynch ran a 4.41 or something like that. Not even close to Lynch's speed and burst.

eta* 4.46, which is 88th precentile and had a speed score that was the 89th percentile.

Williams clocked a pro day 4.55 at best, and has a 39th percentile speed score. His burst is 71st and agility is 89th, so that's something, at least.

It's like night and day.

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7 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Lynch ran a 4.41 or something like that. Not even close to Lynch's speed and burst.

eta* 4.46, which is 88th precentile and had a speed score that was the 89th percentile.

Williams clocked a pro day 4.55 at best, and has a 39th percentile speed score. His burst is 71st and agility is 89th, so that's something, at least.

It's like night and day.

Lynch ran a 4.48 at the combine.  https://nflcombineresults.com/playerpage.php?i=7715. 40 times aren’t the be all.  He reminds me of Lynch with his breaking tackles and yards after contact.  He’s better than Lynch in the passing game however.

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Just now, JohnnyU said:

Lynch ran a 4.48 at the combine.  https://nflcombineresults.com/playerpage.php?i=7715

Player Profiler has him at a 4.46. So if I'm wrong, it's because of them. Sorry. That's .02 off. Williams can't crack 4.55 at his pro day, bro.

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14 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

How about Marshawn Lynch, but is better in the passing game?

That is definitely best case scenario but as a prospect, he isn't in Lynch's realm. Lynch was much faster and much more explosive as well as a little more used in the passing game coming out. 

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1 minute ago, JohnnyU said:

Regardless, see my updated post for why I mentioned Lynch.

I see. If this guy turns out to be Marshawn Lynch, I'll eat brussels sprouts every day for a year (I hate them). No way this guy has the long speed Lynch had. I guess he's got tackle breaking in him, but at some point you've got to evade and run past guys. People are really backing off their effusive praise of this guy because they're not sure he can even get to the edge.

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4 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

That is definitely best case scenario but as a prospect, he isn't in Lynch's realm. Lynch was much faster and much more explosive as well as a little more used in the passing game coming out. 

I think Williams is probably better than Lynch in the passing game.  I don’t recall Lynch being that good catching the ball.  I could be wrong because I’m not looking up his numbers.  I believe where they are similar is yac and breaking tackles.

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But it seems that different people see different qualities in a back. So there's definitely a chance I'm wrong. Like you said in a different thread, taking a hard and fast position on a guy and doubling down is often unwise. You never know when he might be at the appropriate value.

 

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Just now, rockaction said:

I see. If this guy turns out to be Marshawn Lynch, I'll eat brussels sprouts every day for a year (I hate them). No way this guy has the long speed Lynch had. I guess he's got tackle breaking in him, but at some point you've got to evade and run past guys. People are really backing off their effusive praise of this guy because they're not sure he can even get to the edge.

Total bs 

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24 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

I think Williams is probably better than Lynch in the passing game.  I don’t recall Lynch being that good catching the ball.  I could be wrong because I’m not looking up his numbers.  I believe where they are similar is yac and breaking tackles.

Lynch was 34/348/4 receiving as a junior with an 11% target share in the offense. They are super close in that regard. I won't pretend I remember Lynch enough in college or am tuned in enough to evaluate that element of their game. They seem similar enough. I expect Williams to be like Lynch in the passing game. Serviceable, able to catch dump offs and screens but the kind of weapon teams will scheme passing game targets to. 

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14 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

I think Williams is probably better than Lynch in the passing game.  I don’t recall Lynch being that good catching the ball.  I could be wrong because I’m not looking up his numbers.  I believe where they are similar is yac and breaking tackles.

They had similar final years stats wise, but Lynch's numbers were a bit more impressive since that Cal team threw less than 2021 UNC. Also a RB catching 30+ balls and 300+ yards in college was more rare 15 years ago. So I'd agree with @Ilov80sthat Lynch was a more proven receiver coming in. 

I see the stylistic comp to Marshawn because he runs violent, but it really doesn't do Marshawn justice because he was so explosive along with being a tackle breaking machine. I think Marion Barber or David Montgomery are better comps. Although I think Montgomery was more patient than Williams, to a fault, so it's not as good a match stylistically. And Barber was bigger and more explosive/fast than Williams by testing numbers, so that might be a bit generous of a comp as well.

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1 hour ago, jtd13 said:

They had similar final years stats wise, but Lynch's numbers were a bit more impressive since that Cal team threw less than 2021 UNC. Also a RB catching 30+ balls and 300+ yards in college was more rare 15 years ago. So I'd agree with @Ilov80sthat Lynch was a more proven receiver coming in. 

I see the stylistic comp to Marshawn because he runs violent, but it really doesn't do Marshawn justice because he was so explosive along with being a tackle breaking machine. I think Marion Barber or David Montgomery are better comps. Although I think Montgomery was more patient than Williams, to a fault, so it's not as good a match stylistically. And Barber was bigger and more explosive/fast than Williams by testing numbers, so that might be a bit generous of a comp as well.

I think the modern comp is Carson, but I was watching a podcast and I can't remember who it was, but he used the Marion Barber comp as well.  It might have been Greg Cosell, but I'm not sure.

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10 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

I think the modern comp is Carson, but I was watching a podcast and I can't remember who it was, but he used the Marion Barber comp as well.  It might have been Greg Cosell, but I'm not sure.

Yep, I like the Carson comp. Was just trying to identify some more to establish a "range". Barber wasn't much of a receiver though, even considering they his college teams were super run heavy.

I was surprised to see Barber's workout numbers (4.53 40 and 40 inch vertical at the combine at 221 lbs.). Considering his athleticism and production, and how RBs got valued more back then, I wonder how he was a 4th round pick. 

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1 hour ago, JohnnyU said:

I think the modern comp is Carson, but I was watching a podcast and I can't remember who it was, but he used the Marion Barber comp as well.  It might have been Greg Cosell, but I'm not sure.

@RayGQue (Ray G) on Fantasy Pros and frequent guest on Rotounderworld compared him to Barber.

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1 minute ago, rockaction said:

@RayGQue (Ray G) on Fantasy Pros and frequent guest on Rotounderworld compared him to Barber.

You are correct sir.  I now remember.  I like @RayGQue, but I don't always agree with him.  I watch a lot of his destination devy podcasts.

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6 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

You are correct sir.  I now remember.  I like @RayGQue, but I don't always agree with him.  I watch a lot of his destination devy podcasts.

He's good, at least I think so.

That said, I only know because I'm puttin' in the work, JohnnyU. Puttin' in the work. So are you, apparently.

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18 hours ago, rockaction said:

I see. If this guy turns out to be Marshawn Lynch, I'll eat brussels sprouts every day for a year (I hate them). No way this guy has the long speed Lynch had. I guess he's got tackle breaking in him, but at some point you've got to evade and run past guys. People are really backing off their effusive praise of this guy because they're not sure he can even get to the edge.

Butter, bacon, maybe some broth to hydrate them and roast them off. Delicious. 

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8 minutes ago, Capella said:

Butter, bacon, maybe some broth to hydrate them and roast them off. Delicious. 

I think butter and bacon makes pretty much anything that was once almost inedible a ton better.

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4 minutes ago, rockaction said:

I think butter and bacon makes pretty much anything that was once almost inedible a ton better.

Lol yea I was about to type that recipe makes anything taste good. Roasted carrots, cabbage, etc it’s hard to mess up. 

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I blame Ray for me taking Reagor last year. But other than that he's good 😁

I hadn't heard that comp to Barber before, I've been off my podcast game since wfh started. But I'm glad to hear someone that watches more than me agrees with it. 

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On 4/19/2021 at 10:12 AM, jtd13 said:

I blame Ray for me taking Reagor last year. But other than that he's good 😁

I hadn't heard that comp to Barber before, I've been off my podcast game since wfh started. But I'm glad to hear someone that watches more than me agrees with it. 

Don't give up on Reagor yet, it's only been 1 season.  Yes, Ray puts his rose colored glasses on for players and doesn't budge, then has to eat crow later, but overall, I really like RayGque and his podcasts.

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1 minute ago, Kiddnets said:

I saw a mock draft with the Jets landing him with the 2d pick in the 3rd rd....is it possible he is available that ate?  Id be thrilled....

I'd say highly unlikely he falls past mid 2nd to late 2nd. 

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4 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

I'd say highly unlikely he falls past mid 2nd to late 2nd. 

Even though I don't think he should go in the 1st round, there are rumors of the Steelers selecting him.

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21 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Even though I don't think he should go in the 1st round, there are rumors of the Steelers selecting him.

I could totally see that...he would truck defenders better than Harris or ETN....

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IF the Steelers go RB in the 1st, I'll put money on it being Harris. If Williams falls to their 2nd I can see them being all over him. 

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22 hours ago, Kiddnets said:

I saw a mock draft with the Jets landing him with the 2d pick in the 3rd rd....is it possible he is available that ate?  Id be thrilled....

Probably not 3.2, but mid-late 2nd? Sure. And draft picks aren't static.

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On 4/22/2021 at 7:29 AM, MAC_32 said:

Probably not 3.2, but mid-late 2nd? Sure. And draft picks aren't static.

While I'm still high on Williams, I'm no longer looking through rose colored glasses.  I'm trying to be objective.  I hope he lands well in the NFL draft.

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PFF gave him their highest rushing grade ever this past season, and he broke more tackles per attempt than anyone since they started grading.  I don't know how much I pay attention to their rushing grades, but all those broken tackles makes you stand up and take notice.  He's two years younger than Najee, too, so he's doing all this grown man tackle-breaking at a young age.  

I don't think he's guaranteed a lot of targets in the passing game, but that'll probably depend on landing spot.  You have to feel safe in assuming he's not getting pulled at the goalline.  

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2 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I'm not joking when I wonder aloud if he's good at breaking tackles because he's not elusive enough to avoid them. :shrug:

Yes, I believe you posted that already, but to be honest, even ETN will have issues avoiding tackles, because some feel he has no wiggle and patience to his game and is a straight line runner and won't have the truck size holes in the NFL.  He better be able to run between the tackles, or he will be relegated to change of pace and 3rd down work.

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Just now, JohnnyU said:

Yes, I believe you posted that already, but to be honest, even ETN will have issues avoiding tackles, because some feel he has not wiggle and is a straight line runner and won't have the truck size holes in the NFL.  He better be able to run between the tackles, or he will be relegated to change of pace and 3rd down work.

I did, once, but the tackle breaking thing is repeated ad nauseam. Kind of like Judy and his route running prowess. There's just more to it than that.

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5 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I did, once, but the tackle breaking thing is repeated ad nauseam. Kind of like Judy and his route running prowess. There's just more to it than that.

Now we can agree on that.

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43 minutes ago, massraider said:

I wonder if it works the other way, do people elude tacklers because they can't break them?

It seems like they would at least have to try to.

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7 hours ago, massraider said:

PFF gave him their highest rushing grade ever this past season, and he broke more tackles per attempt than anyone since they started grading.  I don't know how much I pay attention to their rushing grades, but all those broken tackles makes you stand up and take notice.  He's two years younger than Najee, too, so he's doing all this grown man tackle-breaking at a young age.  

I don't think he's guaranteed a lot of targets in the passing game, but that'll probably depend on landing spot.  You have to feel safe in assuming he's not getting pulled at the goalline.  

FWIW PFF started grading college players in 2014:

LEARN ABOUT PFF PLAYER GRADES

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NFL Network's Tom Pelissero reports North Carolina RB Javonte Williams could be a surprise first round pick in the NFL Draft. 

Pelissero cited multiple sources who believe Williams -- not Najee Harris or Travis Etienne -- is the draft's top back. "I love Javonte Williams," a high-ranking AFC executive told Pelissero. "I think he's the best back in the draft." A tough runner with an 89th percentile agility score and a 71st percentile burst score, Williams could be the surprise preference for running back-hungry teams like the Steelers, who have been closely linked to Harris. Williams in 2020 was sixth in the nation with 1,140 rushing yards and third among running backs with 19 touchdowns. His eye-popping 7.3 yards per carry was the highest among all RB prospects in the 2021 draft (though he received far fewer carries than Harris in 2020). Williams makes sense as a best ball value before he's drafted by a team that could instantly make him a three-down back. 

RELATED: 

Najee Harris

, Travis Etienne

, Pittsburgh Steelers

SOURCE: NFL.com 

Apr 27, 2021, 8:28 AM ET

 

 

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29 minutes ago, Faust said:

NFL Network's Tom Pelissero reports North Carolina RB Javonte Williams could be a surprise first round pick in the NFL Draft. 

Pelissero cited multiple sources who believe Williams -- not Najee Harris or Travis Etienne -- is the draft's top back. "I love Javonte Williams," a high-ranking AFC executive told Pelissero. "I think he's the best back in the draft." A tough runner with an 89th percentile agility score and a 71st percentile burst score, Williams could be the surprise preference for running back-hungry teams like the Steelers, who have been closely linked to Harris. Williams in 2020 was sixth in the nation with 1,140 rushing yards and third among running backs with 19 touchdowns. His eye-popping 7.3 yards per carry was the highest among all RB prospects in the 2021 draft (though he received far fewer carries than Harris in 2020). Williams makes sense as a best ball value before he's drafted by a team that could instantly make him a three-down back. 

RELATED: 

Najee Harris

, Travis Etienne

, Pittsburgh Steelers

SOURCE: NFL.com 

Apr 27, 2021, 8:28 AM ET

 

Expand  

That would certainly shut up that guy at fantasy flock.  He's a JW hater for sure.  Probably because he's so in love with ETN.

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NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports some teams have RB Javonte Williams as their top running back prospect.

Rapoport added that he "would not be surprised" if Williams is drafted in the first round. Alabama RB Najee Harris is viewed as the top running back by most but the 2020 crop of backs is considered a weak one. It wouldn't be surprising for a few teams to have a high evaluation on Williams and see him as the best of a lackluster group of backs. 

https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1387101979269337088

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1 hour ago, JohnnyU said:

Not saying he will, but he could go late 1st or early 2nd in the NFL draft.

I think early 2nd is pretty likely. The top of the 2nd is a gold mine of rb hungry teams (Jets, Falcons, Dolphins at 34-36, broncos and 49ers in next several picks). If Pitt is really as focused on Harris at 24 as reports indicate, I'd expect the other 2 top guys to go off the board by the early 2nd. I feel like the drop off to RB4 is huge, so Williams will go pretty quick once the RB seal is broken. 

If he's not the 1st RB, that is. I still don't really see it, but that's now what Rapsheet is saying is possible.

 

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