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Dynasty and Redraft: RB Salvon Ahmed, Miami Dolphins


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Salvon Ahmed PlayerProfiler

The Draft Network's Kyle Crabbs Analysis
 

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Vision - Too many times he'll bounce or look to work to the outside instead of calmly pressing his way up into the point of attack. Generally lacks rhythm and cadence for calculated approach to the hole and needs to develop more trust to press to his gap and either hit or make one cut and go.

Feet/COD - He's got quick feet for sure and really like his ability to plant and redirect with suddenness when he's looking to break pursuit angles. His raw twitch ability is effective and he's done well to stop dead in his tracks to strip down a scraping LB of his angle on a tackle.

Durability - Low volume back who really only entered into a more prominent role as a ball carrier in 2019. Was the spell back for Myles Gaskin in each of his first two seasons at UW. Doesn't carry a big stick as a runner and won't be a "grind it out" runner who will push the pile or defender would-be tacklers.

Balance - He has the ability to pinball and pivot through high traffic areas with success — foot speed gives him that ability. Contact balance and ability to run through tackles is pretty substandard and he's got a narrow frame for the RB position — so lateral contact and strength aren't hallmarks.

Pass Protection - He'll look to load up and deliver blows but his contact and ability to land his pads and hands is scatter shot. He'll be more effective on third downs releasing as a pass catcher than someone you look to keep in the protections and key LBs. Little to no value here.

Elusiveness - He's slippery — but you'll have to be willing to live and die by the sword here. He knows he's capable of making defenders miss and can be guilty of leaning too hard on that skill, costing him valuable timing and yardage. Good wiggle in head up tackle challenges and naturally capable of producing false steps.

Receiving Skills - Like his hands — pretty high volume of touches came courtesy of the pass game and he should be a viable check down receiver and screen pass asset when you can water down how much reading he has to do before pressing up the field.

Short Yardage - Wouldn't give him touches on 3rd downs or near the goal line when you NEED to have it. He doesn't have the leg drive, power through the pads or finishing tenacity to hit the hole with urgency and run through contact. He'll be best if spelled here by a bigger back.

Football IQ - Frustrating ups and downs as a runner. The upside here is that he's really only got one season as a feature back under his belt so he should be more consistent as time passes by to stack up more reps and be more consistent with his running tracks and finding gaps to hit.

Effort - Has viable return skills to add special teams value and between that and his receiving skills, he's got a good resume for contributions. He's guilty of almost trying too hard as a runner, but he should be applauded for his big play mentality. Just needs to reel everything in for a more consistent product. 

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Best Trait - Burst

Worst Trait - Vision

Best Film - Oregon (2019)

Worst Film - Utah (2019)

Red Flags - None

Summary - Salvon Ahmed is a low end NFL RB who has the redirection ability to make some big plays happen in space — but he's currently not reliable in his ability to process and key the point of attack. Too may of his runs are derailed by his own attempts to work to daylight and he needs to develop more trust and urgency to press through gaps. Ahmed's athleticism is passable for the pro game but he lacks the long speed and home run hitting skills he seems to think he has with running style.

Initial Rotoworld Profile (April 2020)

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After totaling 199 touches as Myles Gaskins' backup for two seasons, Ahmed (5'11/197) was gifted starting tailback duties for Washington last year and returned 1,000 rushing yards and 11 scores. His ability to out-run pursuit pops on tape, but his lackluster 40 (4.62) from Indy's combine suggests otherwise. Recording four fumbles in three seasons also won't be doing him any favors at the next level. Ahmed's 50 career catches prove his worth as a pure receiving-back in the right scheme but he'll have to drastically improve his dicey pass-pro before being trusted on money downs. In the meantime, he has the special teams experience (25 yards per return) to get by.

FantasyPros' Kyle Yates: Salvon Ahmed Has Incredible Play Speed (2020 NFL Draft)  <- Lots of video!

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Pro Comparison

When looking at Ahmed’s measurements and potential scheme fits, the player that keeps coming to my mind is Raheem Mostert. Mostert is 5’10/197, which are near identical measurements to Ahmed, and he possesses incredible play speed. Ahmed may actually run with a bit more of a low center of gravity, which may make him slightly more agile than Mostert. Mostert bounced around the NFL for a while before landing in Kyle Shanahan’s scheme and this is the dream scenario for Ahmed and his potential fantasy outlook. If he lands in San Francisco with a late round pick, or as a UDFA, I’d be willing to pull the trigger in the early 4th round of a Dynasty rookie draft. Anything else though is going to be difficult to figure out a path to fantasy football relevancy…

 

Edited by The Frankman
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Weeks 9 and 10 game blurbs from Rotoworld:
 

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Dolphins RB Salvon Ahmed led the backfield in snaps and yardage in Week 9 against the Cardinals. 

The rookie gained 38 yards on seven carries, appearing far more explosive than the plodding Jordan Howard, who had 10 carries. Coming into the NFL as a pass-catching specialist, it's hard to see Ahmed becoming an every-down option for Miami. A spate of backfield injuries could force him into a more well rounded role though. Deep league fantasy managers might want to scoop him up this week, just in case. 

Salvon Ahmed rushed 21 times for 85 yards and a touchdown in Week 10 against the Chargers.

Ahmed was the clear lead back with Matt Breida (hamstring) sidelined and Jordan Howard a healthy scratch. He built on last week's solid showing, averaging 4.0 YPC and converting on a goal-line carry for his score. The Dolphins gave DeAndre Washington only two touches behind Ahmed. With Breida and Myles Gaskin nearing returns, Ahmed's snaps could take a hit going forward, but he's played well enough to have a role when everyone's healthy.

Deeper Dive:

https://twitter.com/notJDaigle/status/1328347033892245505

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John Daigle @notJDaigle

Salvon Ahmed’s usage without Jordan Howard (healthy scratch) Sunday:

* 44-of-58 snaps

* 84% RB carries

* Team’s only RB target

* Route on 56% of Tua’s dropbacks

* 3 touches inside

 

10 DeAndre Washington (4 snaps) a non-factor in first available game.

 

Edited by The Frankman
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Great thread/player to spring up Frank

I watched every down of this game, watched part of it again this morning having my coffee, Ahmed has locked down the RB spot until Gaskin returns and then it's likely back to Gaskin but Ahmed is the RB2+ now on this team. He's looked as good as anyone and maybe I'm selling him short that he can hold off Myles Gaskin but for most Phinsfans we're just happy there is a Plan B after Howard/Breida have been complete whiffs this season. 

Ahmed passes the eyeball test and has a few runs where he gets 2-3 yds past the LOS before meeting contact, for Miami that's really good. 

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2 minutes ago, ahartig said:

He was Gaskin's backup in college?  interesting

There seems to be a University of Washington pipeline on the Dolphins.

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Big day for UDFA running backs playing for Florida teams yesterday.

Interesting developments in the NFL. Thought we'd see the pendulum shift back to more blue chippers at the RB position, but some people seem positively convinced that it's not a position to waste resources on.

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2 minutes ago, DocHolliday said:

When is Gaskin scheduled to return?   

Nov 5, 2020

Cameron Wolfe ESPN Staff Writer

DAVIE, Fla. -- The Miami Dolphins have placed starting running back Myles Gaskin on injured reserve with a knee injury, which will keep him out for at least the next three games, coach Brian Flores said Thursday. Gaskin suffered the injury during Sunday's 28-17 win over the Los Angeles Rams.

________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Looks like week after next.

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Just now, rockaction said:

Nov 5, 2020

Cameron Wolfe ESPN Staff Writer

DAVIE, Fla. -- The Miami Dolphins have placed starting running back Myles Gaskin on injured reserve with a knee injury, which will keep him out for at least the next three games, coach Brian Flores said Thursday. Gaskin suffered the injury during Sunday's 28-17 win over the Los Angeles Rams.

________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Looks like week after next.

Thanks. So, Ahmed should a nice start for at least one more week. After Gaskin returns it's likely a time-share, but it's no guarantee he'll return after next week.

Ahmed is just a tad faster than Gaskin:

https://amp.miamiherald.com/sports/nfl/miami-dolphins/article247197559.html?__twitter_impression=true

 

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1 minute ago, SoBeDad said:

So, Ahmed should a nice start for at least one more week.

Probably get some Breida mixed in there if his hamstring is okay. Howard sitting this week was just a healthy scratch or coach's decision. So yeah, maybe a worthy start this week.

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1 minute ago, SoBeDad said:

Thanks. So, Ahmed should a nice start for at least one more week. After Gaskin returns it's likely a time-share, but it's no guarantee he'll return after next week.

Ahmed is just a tad faster than Gaskin:

https://amp.miamiherald.com/sports/nfl/miami-dolphins/article247197559.html?__twitter_impression=true

 

@Denver next week, why make Gaskin travel, then it's Jets at home, they won't need him for that. Cinci comes here in 3 weeks and I think that will be the return of Gaskin, then we have some harder although winnable games in December. Does New England and Buffalo scare you like they would have in years past? I am so ready to send them into the off season in a few weeks and then go challenge for the Division although I have a lot of respect for Josh Allen and don't believe Miami will have an easy time containing him, mobile QBs kill us. 

Back to Ahmed, I like him a lot. A Gaskin/Ahmed combo for the playoff run sounds fantastic in whatever time share they want to try. I think Ahmed might actually end up being the lead back in a 60/40 split. 

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2 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Probably get some Breida mixed in there if his hamstring is okay. Howard sitting this week was just a healthy scratch or coach's decision. So yeah, maybe a worthy start this week.

I would cross Breida and Howard off the list at this point. I even saw Washington in there towards the end of the game, think he could end up being the RB3. 

Gaskin/Ahmed

Washington...back up and that's it for now. Maybe some action on 3rd Down passing situations.

Breida...maybe he suits up but healthy scratches might be on the horizon here. 

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On 11/16/2020 at 9:46 AM, Ministry of Pain said:

I would cross Breida and Howard off the list at this point. I even saw Washington in there towards the end of the game, think he could end up being the RB3. 

Gaskin/Ahmed

Washington...back up and that's it for now. Maybe some action on 3rd Down passing situations.

Breida...maybe he suits up but healthy scratches might be on the horizon here. 

I'd agree with this, but you never know what coaches want.

Ahmed looked better than anyone but Gaskin for Miami. Breida hasn't looked like the Breida in San Francisco. Howard seems to be a shell of what once was.

Edited by rockaction
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Yeah if Howard is a healthy scratch with gaskin and Breida out I think we can probably write him off as a non-factor going forward. No idea what will happen when Gaskin comes back (I’d guess a timeshare but no idea the split) but it’s not like he was setting the world on fire.

If Ahmed stays effective and they stay winning prior to Gaskin’s return him staying the workhorse doesn’t seem to be outside the range of potential outcomes, though with his build there’s risk of him getting pulled at the goal line. Less so if he continues to convert though!

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Rotoworld:

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Dolphins RB Salvon Ahmed had 84 percent of the team's rushing attempts in Week 10's win over the Chargers. 

Ahmed rushed 21 times for 85 yards and a touchdown with Jordan Howard inactive as a healthy scratch against LA. He ran 15 pass routes as the only Miami back to log a route. Matt Breida's (hamstring) eventual return could take some touches away from Ahmed, but it looks like fantasy players who picked him up last week may have stumbled on a lead back for a Dolphins team seeing plenty of run-friendly positive game script. That sound you hear is Zero RB drafters celebrating in the streets. 

RELATED: 

Matt Breida

SOURCE: John Daigle on Twitter 

Nov 16, 2020, 10:02 AM ET

 

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Anyone think Ahmed is worth spending the #1 rolling waiver priority on?  I know that depends on each individual teams' needs, but if anyone is considering spending their #1 priority on him, you can assume they're fairly RB-needy.

 

At this point of the fantasy season, when the playoffs are just a few weeks away, the #1 priority can be a very valuable thing.  A late-season waiver claim due to a big-name injury can win you the championship.  Is this one of those cases?  I just don't see how, when Gaskin is scheduled to return as soon as week 12.  At best for Ahmed, he and Gaskin split carries during the fantasy playoffs.  At worst, Gaskin reclaims his role as bell-cow.

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I would, unless I was so rich at rb he’d never play and so far ahead of the pack as to have the bye locked up already. 

I disagree With your best case though. Gaskin is eligible to return week 12; doesn’t mean he’ll be ready, or that Ahmed couldn’t have won the job outright by then.

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NFL.com's Lance Zierlein writes that Washington RB Salvon Ahmed "suffers from a debilitating lack of vision and decisiveness."

"Ahmed lacks feel for blocking scheme and run-lane development, but even struggled to see it and hit the gas when clear points of entry were available," Zierlein writes of the Washington back. The 5-foot-11, 196-pounder possesses intriguing speed upside, but there are real issues in his game which could prevent him from sticking in the pros, with Zierlein noting that Ahmed "leaves too many chunk plays out on the field and faces an uphill battle to make a team." He will be trying for a Day 3 selection come April, but again, there are some concerning holes, here.

SOURCE: NFL.com

Feb 10, 2020, 4:13 PM ET

 

 

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25 minutes ago, EthnicFury said:

I would, unless I was so rich at rb he’d never play and so far ahead of the pack as to have the bye locked up already. 

I disagree With your best case though. Gaskin is eligible to return week 12; doesn’t mean he’ll be ready, or that Ahmed couldn’t have won the job outright by then.

To be fair, I did say his best-case scenario was to split carries with Gaskin for the fantasy playoffs (weeks 14-16).  I'm acknowledging Gaskin might not be back immediately when he's eligible for week 12, but should be at least by week 14.

 

With as good as Gaskin looked this season, could Miami really just give his job to Ahmed outright, and not have them split carries?

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Sure, I just haven’t been able to find enough detail on the injury to consider him being back is a guarantee. “MCL sprain” encompasses a range of injury severities without more info as to grade etc.

Gaskin is averaging 3.8 ypc for the season. If by the time he’s back Ahmed is averaging 5+? Not saying it’s the most likely scenario but I do think it’s within the range of outcomes

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14 minutes ago, Broncobiv said:

With as good as Gaskin looked this season, could Miami really just give his job to Ahmed outright, and not have them split carries?

I doubt it. Weirder stuff has happened, but the first waiver priority, you might wanna hold that depending on how your league works.

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On 11/16/2020 at 12:46 PM, Ministry of Pain said:

I would cross Breida and Howard off the list at this point. I even saw Washington in there towards the end of the game, think he could end up being the RB3. 

Gaskin/Ahmed

Washington...back up and that's it for now. Maybe some action on 3rd Down passing situations.

Breida...maybe he suits up but healthy scratches might be on the horizon here. 

Thanks for the report - it's great to have a fan that watches every play give their perspective.

I'm looking at the PFF grades for Gaskin, Breida and Ahmed.  (I know, PFF is not the be-all end-all).  But would these sound reasonable to you?  Maybe Gaskin best all around - Breida best receiver - Ahmed best runner?

Gaskin - Run grade 69.1 - Rcv grade 63.2

Breida - Run grade 54.9 - Rcv grade 73.9

Ahmed - Run grade 74.0 - Rcv grade 51.9

I currently have both Gaskin and Mostert on IR, so I'm just looking for week 11 and 12.  Breida is on waivers and Ahmed just got dropped, so trying to decide who to pick up.

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4 hours ago, themeistersinger said:

Thanks for the report - it's great to have a fan that watches every play give their perspective.

I'm looking at the PFF grades for Gaskin, Breida and Ahmed.  (I know, PFF is not the be-all end-all).  But would these sound reasonable to you?  Maybe Gaskin best all around - Breida best receiver - Ahmed best runner?

Gaskin - Run grade 69.1 - Rcv grade 63.2

Breida - Run grade 54.9 - Rcv grade 73.9

Ahmed - Run grade 74.0 - Rcv grade 51.9

I currently have both Gaskin and Mostert on IR, so I'm just looking for week 11 and 12.  Breida is on waivers and Ahmed just got dropped, so trying to decide who to pick up.

I saw Ahmed catch a pass in RZ, first I saw, he looked fine doing it. 

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I love that the fins have 2 Washington backs and a Washington as their RBs.

Ahmed was a pretty good receiver in college. Seems likely he can do that well. Gaskin was very solid in that regard as well, and I know Gaskin got praise from Flo for being solid in pass blocking. 

I went back and watched the Miami game, and I think people need to slow their roll on Ahmed being significantly more explosive/decisive. Miami has had a pretty poor run blocking unit so far this season, and they've also played a lot of solid run defense over the 1st 8 games. That wasn't the case against the Chargers. Those were the biggest holes I have seen for a Miami RB all season, and I think RBs generally look more decisive and explosive when they have bigger holes to hit. 

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13 minutes ago, jtd13 said:

I love that the fins have 2 Washington backs and a Washington as their RBs.

Ahmed was a pretty good receiver in college. Seems likely he can do that well. Gaskin was very solid in that regard as well, and I know Gaskin got praise from Flo for being solid in pass blocking. 

I went back and watched the Miami game, and I think people need to slow their roll on Ahmed being significantly more explosive/decisive. Miami has had a pretty poor run blocking unit so far this season, and they've also played a lot of solid run defense over the 1st 8 games. That wasn't the case against the Chargers. Those were the biggest holes I have seen for a Miami RB all season, and I think RBs generally look more decisive and explosive when they have bigger holes to hit. 

I also went back and watched all of his runs from Week 10. What struck me is how big the holes were, too. But he's got decent game speed for a guy clocked at 4.62. He looks faster than that. I didn't see real issues with his contact/balance until the end of the game, really. Then I think LAC started playing the run and his holes got smaller and gains lessened.

In all, I've seen a bit of Gaskin this year and the run/pass grades PFF handed out to each sound about right. I can't imagine Ahmed just seizing the job away from Gaskin, though. They're very similar, as are Ahmed and Breida. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the Dolphins sign a bigger back off a practice squad to give Miami a change-up. They can always send Ahmed back to the practice squad without clearing waivers, if I'm interpreting the rules right. Therefore, there's really nothing to prevent sending him back there. If you're dynasty, maybe flip him for what you can get.

Now I'm thinking out loud. MoP, any thoughts?

Edited by rockaction
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2 minutes ago, Bracie Smathers said:

I picked him up, not starting him but years of FF play has taught me to take a flyer on fresh legs late in the season.

Fresh legs is huge. You're right. I picked him up in dynasty for a buck earlier in the year, dropped him when SF cut him, and then picked him back up again before his latest outburst. I'm hoping he does well and wins the job and I can start him or trade him for a third or something better. Likely not, but one can dream.

Edited by rockaction
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The Miami backfield going forward is a puzzle,  but there is certainly fantasy value to be mined.  Gaskin looked very good, and I would assume he reclaims his starting role once healthy, but I foresee a committee approach.  Salvon Ahmed really shined last week, and I have the feeling he is not going away, but he strikes me as more of a change-of-pace scat back, rather than an every-down back.  The one who has me especially puzzled is Breida.  We saw moments of excellence from him in the Niners' dynamic run offense, and I feel like he could be the most talented back on the Dolphins' roster, but he has been a complete dud since he arrived in Miami.  If Breida is able to go Sunday, he should get some touches (perhaps the start?), and we will see if he can turn things around.  For those expecting Ahmed to repeat last week's numbers, monitor Breida's status closely.

Edited by socrates
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On 11/20/2020 at 9:28 AM, socrates said:

The Miami backfield going forward is a puzzle,  but there is certainly fantasy value to be mined.  Gaskin looked very good, and I would assume he reclaims his starting role once healthy, but I foresee a committee approach.  Salvon Ahmed really shined last week, and I have the feeling he is not going away, but he strikes me as more of a change-of-pace scat back, rather than an every-down back.  The one who has me especially puzzled is Breida.  We saw moments of excellence from him in the Niners' dynamic run offense, and I feel like he could be the most talented back on the Dolphins' roster, but he has been a complete dud since he arrived in Miami.  If Breida is able to go Sunday, he should get some touches (perhaps the start?), and we will see if he can turn things around.  For those expecting Ahmed to repeat last week's numbers, monitor Breida's status closely.

I think its possible Breida isn't very good, and was just the latest in a long line of guys who were carried by Shanahan. I mean, Freeman, Coleman, Crowell, Morris, Mostert, Wilson etc. I think its possible Breida was just in the right place at the right time, and now he's not.

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Salvon Ahmed played 85 percent of the Dolphins' offensive snaps in Week 11's loss to Denver. 

Ahmed dominated snap share Sunday despite missing some time with a shoulder injury. Matt Breida played a meager seven snaps in his return to the lineup. Ahmed's snap share was higher than Myles Gaskin had in any game this season. Ahmed's days as Miami's primary back are probably numbered because Gaskin (knee) could return from injured reserve soon. Gaskin might not enjoy the locked-in primary running back role he had before the injury and Ahmed's subsequent emergence. If Gaskin remains out, Ahmed is an RB2 option in Week 12 against the Jets. 

RELATED: 

Myles Gaskin

SOURCE: John Daigle on Twitter 

Nov 23, 2020, 9:03 AM ET

 

 

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Salvon Ahmed (shoulder) did not practice Wednesday.

Ahmed had to briefly exit last week's loss to the Broncos in the first quarter with a shoulder issue but quickly returned and played 85% of the offensive snaps, handling 12 carries to Matt Breida's two. The Dolphins could be taking it easy on Ahmed. However, it is also notable that Myles Gaskin (knee, I.R.) was practicing in a red non-contact jersey Wednesday.

SOURCE: Cameron Wolfe on Twitter

Nov 25, 2020, 1:45 PM ET

 

 

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On 11/21/2020 at 4:20 PM, travdogg said:

I think its possible Breida isn't very good, and was just the latest in a long line of guys who were carried by Shanahan. I mean, Freeman, Coleman, Crowell, Morris, Mostert, Wilson etc. I think its possible Breida was just in the right place at the right time, and now he's not.

That appears to be the case.  That is disappointing, as Breida showed tremendous burst and elusiveness, and what appeared to me to be good vision, in his time with the Niners.  It is a shame he could not carry that success over to Miami, but the Dolphins' coaching staff, who sees Breida on the practice field (to the extent he has been healthy enough to practice), evidently views him as mere depth at the position, and that is all he has shown in game action, as well.

Salvon Ahmed, however, looks like a player who will stick around.

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