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FanDuel Week 11 (1 Viewer)

FatNate

Footballguy
I do not know about anyone else, but I am glad week 10 is over and we are on to week 11.  Post your thoughts here and let's work together to build a few winners.  Good luck to everyone.

 
Taysom Hill going to be 90-95% owned if named starting QB. Probably will still be one of the highest owned TEs even if Winston starts.

 
Taysom Hill going to be 90-95% owned if named starting QB. Probably will still be one of the highest owned TEs even if Winston starts.
I wonder if FanDuel will reclassify him (as a QB), if he is named the starter on Friday/Saturday.  Obviously, it would just be for any slate not started yet.  I know I have seen them add players (Lamar Miller was a late add this week) later in the week, but I am not sure I have ever seen them move someone (change positions) mid-week of a contest.  I do know they adjust the NBA positions periodically throughout the season.

 
Winston will start. I would bank on that. 

I'm going to change things up this week. I'm going to pick only 1 game to focus on for GPP. Build 30 LUs with the supposed winning QB stack, and 10 with his opponent stack. 

Going to stick with my cash game strategy, but play more. I basically realized because of the payout scheme, our league is essentially a GPP. Gonna play more actual 50/50s this week. I have been having more cash success than GPP.

As I mentioned in the week 10 thread, getting discouraged with this season and may just dump all my bankroll into one week and call it a season...

These threads have been very helpful, though. I learned a lot this year so thanks guys.

Looks like the fun, high-scoring games are on Thur and Sun night. Not on this slate. I like either the ATL-NOS game or the GB-IND game. Prob the latter.

 
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Winston will start. I would bank on that. 

I'm going to change things up this week. I'm going to pick only 1 game to focus on for GPP. Build 30 LUs with the supposed winning QB stack, and 10 with his opponent stack. 

Going to stick with my cash game strategy, but play more. I basically realized because of the payout scheme, our league is essentially a GPP. Gonna play more actual 50/50s this week. I have been having more cash success than GPP.

As I mentioned in the week 10 thread, getting discouraged with this season and may just dump all my bankroll into one week and call it a season...

These threads have been very helpful, though. I learned a lot this year so thanks guys.

Looks like the fun, high-scoring games are on Thur and Sun night. Not on this slate. I like either the ATL-NOS game or the GB-IND game. Prob the latter.
I enjoy it to much to walk away.  It frustrates me from time to time, but I like the challenge of it. 

 
Winston will start. I would bank on that. 

I'm going to change things up this week. I'm going to pick only 1 game to focus on for GPP. Build 30 LUs with the supposed winning QB stack, and 10 with his opponent stack. 

Going to stick with my cash game strategy, but play more. I basically realized because of the payout scheme, our league is essentially a GPP. Gonna play more actual 50/50s this week. I have been having more cash success than GPP.

As I mentioned in the week 10 thread, getting discouraged with this season and may just dump all my bankroll into one week and call it a season...

These threads have been very helpful, though. I learned a lot this year so thanks guys.

Looks like the fun, high-scoring games are on Thur and Sun night. Not on this slate. I like either the ATL-NOS game or the GB-IND game. Prob the latter.
I don't play any GPP games.  I know that I will never be able to hit the big pay day playing this way, but I'm OK with that.  I can win much more consistently in the 50/50s.  I hate losing...lol.  My bankroll grows slowly, but I have been fortunate to have profited every season I've played thus far.

 
I don't play any GPP games.  I know that I will never be able to hit the big pay day playing this way, but I'm OK with that.  I can win much more consistently in the 50/50s.  I hate losing...lol.  My bankroll grows slowly, but I have been fortunate to have profited every season I've played thus far.
I try sometimes, but the ownership game sort of drives me crazy with the cash contests - too many weeks I feel like there is basically just one construction for LUs and sometimes with ownership it feels like the week is decided by 2-3 guys.   Plus I am such a low stakes person I guess I just take the attitude of WTF.  

 
I try sometimes, but the ownership game sort of drives me crazy with the cash contests - too many weeks I feel like there is basically just one construction for LUs and sometimes with ownership it feels like the week is decided by 2-3 guys.   Plus I am such a low stakes person I guess I just take the attitude of WTF.  
This is why I find your style so interesting. Cash is literally all about highest floor, which means volume at the RB position and stacking the highest scoring game at QB. My cash builds are always QB-RB-WR-Opp WR from highest projected scoring game, then flesh out the roster with High volume RBs from some of the highest projected scoring games, some defense slated to play against a low-scoring team, and the rest all players that I can fit in from the 3 highest projected scoring games. I almost always finish in the money on 50/50s that way, and have finished near the top of our league every week (won it once also). As I recall, your roster building style is very similar and would be suited for cash in particular.

As an example for this week: Highest projected scoring game is GB-IND as of right now (though I like the ATL-NOS game more even though it's a half-point lower). So I would build as follows: Start with Rodgers-A Jones-Adams. Then add Pittman. Gurley. Zeke. CIN def. Rudolph. Zaccheaus. The first 4 guys (rodgers through Pittman) I add without even a consideration to price. Then I try to fit the pieces (other than defense) at or slightly above what my average per player remaining is. I usually splurge on RBs and let the chips fall on the WR-TE at the end. They are usually scrubs, but I view them as gravy on top of my already high floor.

Seems to work for me.

 
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If I were to do a cash game build for the ATL-NOS game it would go: Winston-Kamara-Thomas-Julio. Taylor. Gurley. CIN def. Rudolph. Corey Davis. 

Much harder build this way as I don't like Taylor that much, but prices at the WR position forced my hand.

You'll notice I never take players from games that are projected to be lower scoring. I stick with the 4 highest scoring projected games. In my opinion, if you take guys from lower-scoring games that you think will play well, you're essentially betting against Vegas. Sure, on occasion you'll hit, but in the long-run you'll lose.

 
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This is why I find your style so interesting. Cash is literally all about highest floor, which means volume at the RB position and stacking the highest scoring game at QB. My cash builds are always QB-RB-WR-Opp WR from highest projected scoring game, then flesh out the roster with High volume RBs from some of the highest projected scoring games, some defense slated to play against a low-scoring team, and the rest all players that I can fit in from the 3 highest projected scoring games. I almost always finish in the money on 50/50s that way, and have finished near the top of our league every week (won it once also). As I recall, your roster building style is very similar and would be suited for cash in particular.

As an example for this week: Highest projected scoring game is GB-IND as of right now (though I like the ATL-NOS game more even though it's a half-point lower). So I would build as follows: Start with Rodgers-A Jones-Adams. Then add Pittman. Gurley. Zeke. CIN def. Rudolph. Zaccheaus. The first 4 guys (rodgers through Pittman) I add without even a consideration to price. Then I try to fit the pieces (other than defense) at or slightly above what my average per player remaining is. I usually splurge on RBs and let the chips fall on the WR-TE at the end. They are usually scrubs, but I view them as gravy on top of my already high floor.

Seems to work for me.
Thanks for sharing the method and presenting a good example.  Good stuff.

 
If I were to do a cash game build for the ATL-NOS game it would go: Winston-Kamara-Thomas-Julio. Taylor. Gurley. CIN def. Rudolph. Corey Davis. 

Much harder build this way as I don't like Taylor that much, but prices at the WR position forced my hand.

You'll notice I never take players from games that are projected to be lower scoring. I stick with the 4 highest scoring projected games. In my opinion, if you take guys from lower-scoring games that you think will play well, you're essentially betting against Vegas. Sure, on occasion you'll hit, but in the long-run you'll lose.
You have to have a system and no system is perfect, but finding one that works for you and is profitable is key!

 
If I were to do a cash game build for the ATL-NOS game it would go: Winston-Kamara-Thomas-Julio. Taylor. Gurley. CIN def. Rudolph. Corey Davis. 

Much harder build this way as I don't like Taylor that much, but prices at the WR position forced my hand.

You'll notice I never take players from games that are projected to be lower scoring. I stick with the 4 highest scoring projected games. In my opinion, if you take guys from lower-scoring games that you think will play well, you're essentially betting against Vegas. Sure, on occasion you'll hit, but in the long-run you'll lose.
Using your formula for focusing on the top four total games and attacking the ATL/NO game my lineup looks like this:

Winston - Davis/Hines/Kamara - M Thomas/MVS/Zaccheaus - Andrews - Vikes

 
FatNate said:
Using your formula for focusing on the top four total games and attacking the ATL/NO game my lineup looks like this:

Winston - Davis/Hines/Kamara - M Thomas/MVS/Zaccheaus - Andrews - Vikes
See, I like this. I feel it has a high floor...I love Andrews now that Boyle is out for season.

 
Solomon Grundy said:
This is why I find your style so interesting. Cash is literally all about highest floor, which means volume at the RB position and stacking the highest scoring game at QB. My cash builds are always QB-RB-WR-Opp WR from highest projected scoring game, then flesh out the roster with High volume RBs from some of the highest projected scoring games, some defense slated to play against a low-scoring team, and the rest all players that I can fit in from the 3 highest projected scoring games. I almost always finish in the money on 50/50s that way, and have finished near the top of our league every week (won it once also). As I recall, your roster building style is very similar and would be suited for cash in particular.

As an example for this week: Highest projected scoring game is GB-IND as of right now (though I like the ATL-NOS game more even though it's a half-point lower). So I would build as follows: Start with Rodgers-A Jones-Adams. Then add Pittman. Gurley. Zeke. CIN def. Rudolph. Zaccheaus. The first 4 guys (rodgers through Pittman) I add without even a consideration to price. Then I try to fit the pieces (other than defense) at or slightly above what my average per player remaining is. I usually splurge on RBs and let the chips fall on the WR-TE at the end. They are usually scrubs, but I view them as gravy on top of my already high floor.

Seems to work for me.
Wow...you and I are polar opposites in cash game approaches.  I actually try not to stack.  I have on occasion paired a QB-WR or a RB-DEF from the same team, but I really don't look for it.  If the game script I envision goes sideways when I have investment in 3 or 4 players from that game, I figure I have wrecked my chances to cash.  If I have a single player in that situation, no big deal as the rest of my line up can compensate.  I like the diversification.   I agree that high volume guys are important.  

 
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KarmaPolice said:
I try sometimes, but the ownership game sort of drives me crazy with the cash contests - too many weeks I feel like there is basically just one construction for LUs and sometimes with ownership it feels like the week is decided by 2-3 guys.   Plus I am such a low stakes person I guess I just take the attitude of WTF.  
No doubt this happens sometimes.  This past week was very close to one of those situations I think.  Everyone was playing Davis and Johnson.  You sort of felt the need to follow along.  I played them too.  They sucked.  Fortunately, I was able to choose those other line up spots well.  I get the appeal of the added variation in playing GPP line ups.  It adds some fun...less boring.  But you have to be prepared for much more variation in outcomes also.  This means your line ups lose more often.  Nothing wrong with that if you are having fun, but it seems harder to me to be profitable, especially when payouts seem to drop off so quickly after the top few places.

 
No doubt this happens sometimes.  This past week was very close to one of those situations I think.  Everyone was playing Davis and Johnson.  You sort of felt the need to follow along.  I played them too.  They sucked.  Fortunately, I was able to choose those other line up spots well.  I get the appeal of the added variation in playing GPP line ups.  It adds some fun...less boring.  But you have to be prepared for much more variation in outcomes also.  This means your line ups lose more often.  Nothing wrong with that if you are having fun, but it seems harder to me to be profitable, especially when payouts seem to drop off so quickly after the top few places.
The smarter thing for me  to do would be try more 50/50? Try to be decent enough at cash so that those contests mostly pay for the gpps.  Dunno.  

Yeah, this past week was a perfect example.  On DK for cash it was basically play either Murray or Allen, then Jones/Duke/Davis, probably a Seattle wr, 4k TE, and NO DT.  Basically leaves it so your week and the difference between cashing or not feels like it in the hands of a couple scrub Wrs.  

 
The smarter thing for me  to do would be try more 50/50? Try to be decent enough at cash so that those contests mostly pay for the gpps.  Dunno.  

Yeah, this past week was a perfect example.  On DK for cash it was basically play either Murray or Allen, then Jones/Duke/Davis, probably a Seattle wr, 4k TE, and NO DT.  Basically leaves it so your week and the difference between cashing or not feels like it in the hands of a couple scrub Wrs.  
Yep, but there are still some choices.   I decided to pay for Kamara over Jones.  To do that I had to pay down a little further at WR and I used Grant as my scrub who returned 12.5 points on a $4600 salary...Cheap chalk RBs and a scrub WR allowed me to squeeze in Keenan Allen and Davonte Adams...so really only one scrub WR was needed. I definitely had options at WR.   It was my decision to play Adams that pushed me away from Jones

As far as your initial question, I can't answer that for you.  You got to play what you enjoy and what you are comfortable with or why bother playing at all.

 
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If I were to do a cash game build for the ATL-NOS game it would go: Winston-Kamara-Thomas-Julio. Taylor. Gurley. CIN def. Rudolph. Corey Davis. 

Much harder build this way as I don't like Taylor that much, but prices at the WR position forced my hand.

You'll notice I never take players from games that are projected to be lower scoring. I stick with the 4 highest scoring projected games. In my opinion, if you take guys from lower-scoring games that you think will play well, you're essentially betting against Vegas. Sure, on occasion you'll hit, but in the long-run you'll lose.


I am looking at the ATL-NO game as well.  I LOVE Winston this week as he is a cheap option with a lot of upside.  It's interesting you have Taylor and the CINCY def in you build.  I don't like Taylor either so I am looking at Hines combined with the Wash D.

I'm also looking at the PIT-JAX game.  I know its not a great  line, only 46.5, but with PIT having an implied total of 28.25  it is worth considering.  BIg Ben has been on fire lately and I don't trust Connor to do much.  So a lineup with Ben/JuJu/DJohnson running it back with DJ is relatively inexpensive with a lot of upside. It also allows me to bring Cook in with a juicy matchup in Dallas.

Same thing goes for LAC-NYJ.  Herbert and Allen are pretty much money.  You can run it back with Crowder or Perriman if you like, but I doubt I would do that myself.

Don't sleep on the CAR-DET game either.  Bridgewater may not play so passing and scoring may be down. But neither defense is particularly effective against the run.  So this could be a good matchup for MDavis and/or DSwift

 
Single gamer for tonight:

MVP Edmonds with Hopkins/Kirk/Lockett/Carson

Differentiating:  No Wilson/Murray.  Lockett/Carson are both 'questionable,' so that may scare a few off.  Edmonds with MVP will be lower owned in that spot than most.

 
I am ready for some DFS NBA!
I don't really follow the NBA, will be interested to learn the art.

Tonight have two similar LU's, neither is particularly exciting, just looking to be in the money again and have a reason to watch the game.

MVP - Murray w/Hopkins/Edmonds/Myers/Kirk ($70k Thu NFL Dive)

MVP - Murray w/Hopkins/Edmonds/Gonzalez/Myers (50/50 contest)

 
I don't really follow the NBA, will be interested to learn the art.

Tonight have two similar LU's, neither is particularly exciting, just looking to be in the money again and have a reason to watch the game.

MVP - Murray w/Hopkins/Edmonds/Myers/Kirk ($70k Thu NFL Dive)

MVP - Murray w/Hopkins/Edmonds/Gonzalez/Myers (50/50 contest)
I enjoy the NBA.  It is a basically daily, which means I do not have time to over think it.  There are a few tricks, but nothing overly challenging.  One of the most important things with the NBA is keeping up with late breaking news of who is sitting each night.

 
So, these two teams have already played, as you all know. Last game these players were the highlights:

Wilson: 388 yds, 3 TD, 3 INT, 84 rush yds (Note, hyde was 2nd with 68 yds rushing. Carson had 34)

Lockett: 200 yds, 3 TD. Next closest guy had 54 yds, Metcalf had 5 targets and 2 catches for 23 yds. That's because he was shadowed by Peterson all night. I expect more of the same tonight. I would fade Metcalf. They will need to do something about Lockett who torched them last time, so I suspect some 3rd guy, like Moore, will get a lot of looks. Olsen might also be a good look.

Murray: 360 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, 67 rush yds, 1 TD. Also leading rusher for his team.

Hopkins: 103 yds, 1 TD

Kirk: only 37 yds but had 2 TDs. Murray's targets were evenly spread between Edmonds, Fitzgerald, and Kirk (hopkins had 12 tgts and 10 catches).

My expectation is that ARZ stats will be similar, SEA will be a little more evenly distributed, but I fade Metcalf. I like Edmonds for ARZ in this game as he was more effective on the ground last time.

So, My FD lineup will be: Murray (MVP) - Edmonds / Wilson / Kirk / Olsen

my DK lineup will be: Hyde (CAPT) - Murray / Wilson / Hopkins / Edmonds / Hollister

 
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Single gamer for tonight:

MVP Edmonds with Hopkins/Kirk/Lockett/Carson

Differentiating:  No Wilson/Murray.  Lockett/Carson are both 'questionable,' so that may scare a few off.  Edmonds with MVP will be lower owned in that spot than most.
Such an interesting matchup.  I made changes and added a second lineup.

MVP Edmonds - Hopkins/Kirk/Metcalf/Lockett

MVP Carson - Hopkins/Kirk/Murray/Olsen

 
Don't sleep on the CAR-DET game either.  Bridgewater may not play so passing and scoring may be down. But neither defense is particularly effective against the run.  So this could be a good matchup for MDavis and/or DSwift
I had both of these guys in my initial line up draft.  Unfortunately, not looking good for Swift to play

 
FatNate said:
Such an interesting matchup.  I made changes and added a second lineup.

MVP Edmonds - Hopkins/Kirk/Metcalf/Lockett

MVP Carson - Hopkins/Kirk/Murray/Olsen
I dropped the second lineup. Only using the first one tonight. 

 
I had both of these guys in my initial line up draft.  Unfortunately, not looking good for Swift to play
Just saw that myself. Wondering if I should try my luck with Kerryon Johnson or just pass on DET. I'm leaning toward passing and considering either Damien Harris or Rex Burkhead.

 
So, yeah, I totally got the Thurs game wrong. Just ignore me from here on out, lol...

EDIT: actually came out on top last night, as my DK LU came in the money. Who woulda thunk it...

 
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How come Taysom Hill is not in the optimizer?  Or am I just over looking him?

Originally, I had some interest, because I thought he might get a few more snaps with Brees out, but now I am just curious how he ranks from a value perspective.  I have come around to Winston as the QB and I no longer expect Hill to be any more involved than any other week.  I quickly checked last season to confirm my thoughts and when Bridgewater stepped in for Brees, Hill continued to be used in usual role.  I expect to Winston to out perform Bridgewater, from a fantasy perspective, for that matter, I believe his fantasy stats will be better than Brees too.  I expect Hill to be over owned this week and I would suggest Rudolph at TE, if you are dumpster diving at that position.

 
I am intrigued this week by some cheap QBs.  I think we all like Cook and Kamara this week, but it is challenging to fit either of them.  I know these guys are cheaper for a reason, but I think several of them are in good positions this week.  At less than $7k, I will have some Smith, Tua, Flacco, Dalton, and Walker.  Make no mistake most of my lineups will be around Lamar, Cam, Winston, and Burrow, but I do intend to leverage some of these cheap QBs this week.

 
We have spent a lot time here this season discussing the high point game totals, so I spent more time than usual this week looking at the game totals.  It appears this week that the range is from 51pts to 45.5pts.  I have no idea if that spread is statistically in line with what we see most weeks, but I know I was surprised that the gap from the highest game total of the week to the lowest game total of the week, was not more (please note I only looked at the main slate games).  GB/IND is the highest total at 51 and MIA/DEN & DET/CAR are both the lowest totals at 45.5.  My point to all this is that I think it is great to use game total points to help cull the player pool, but I would hesitate on just eliminating all those lower game total teams.  A perfect example might Davis from CAR this week.  He gets the touches and faces a bottom defense, but the game total is the lowest of the week.  Furthermore I found that it might be more important to look at implied team totals instead game totals.  For example, GB/IND is the highest game total of the week, but individually IND ranks as the 6th highest implied team total and GB as the 9th highest implies team total of the week.  The other end of that example is the PIT/JAX game has a game total of 46.5, but PIT implied team total is 28.25 (the highest of the week).  High game totals are great when identifying games to stack, which is very popular and can be successful.  I also think it is important to note that if we look at implied team totals, we can see a much wider gap from the top (PIT at 28.25) to the bottom (JAX at 18.25).  I would argue we need to have some PIT players in the lineups this week, but I I see no reason to run it back with a JAX player.  I hope this rambling made some sense, but I wanted to share my thoughts and I hope it might help someone as they dig into the numbers.  Listed are the top 11 highest implied team totals of the week:  1 PIT 28.25     2 LAC 27.5     3 NOS 27.25     4 BAL 27.25     5 MIN 27.25     6 IND 26.5     7 NEP 25.25     8 CLE 25     9 GBP 24.5     10 MIA 24.5     11 WAS 24.

 
So, I use the point totals as a barometer for my QB stacks. I always include high-volume RBs from any game, so Davis is on my short list for sure. For cash games, I use only the high point total games, however, because I feel it keeps my floor high, which is what you want in cash games.

This week is weird, because there is usually at least one game where the O/U is over 55...this week those games are Thurs and Sun night...

 
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As of now, I do not plan to use the GB/IND game.  It might hurt me, but it is not part of my plan for Sunday.

Let me parlay IND -2.5 with the under 51pts, instead.

I will be stacking DAL/MIN, NEP/HOU, and CIN/WAS this week.

 
Went heavy on ARZ last night, got smoked across the board. I suck pretty hard at this apparently.

CLE update although I don't know that it effects the game from the degenerate gambler perspective. Supposed to be #### weather again and was just announced Myles Garrett was placed on the COVID-19 list just now so he is out on Sunday. This should move the line on the game but I don't think it matters for DFS. Carry on...

 
How come Taysom Hill is not in the optimizer?  Or am I just over looking him?

Originally, I had some interest, because I thought he might get a few more snaps with Brees out, but now I am just curious how he ranks from a value perspective.  I have come around to Winston as the QB and I no longer expect Hill to be any more involved than any other week.  I quickly checked last season to confirm my thoughts and when Bridgewater stepped in for Brees, Hill continued to be used in usual role.  I expect to Winston to out perform Bridgewater, from a fantasy perspective, for that matter, I believe his fantasy stats will be better than Brees too.  I expect Hill to be over owned this week and I would suggest Rudolph at TE, if you are dumpster diving at that position.
I got this one wrong.  Way wrong.  Not sure I get it from a football move.  Fantasy wise I will have Taysom in my lineup - QB at TE.  

 
Interesting.  Sounds like there might be more to the story.
From what I have seen, it appears Winston will be the backup this Sunday.  We do not get to see practice and Sean Payton knows his team better than us, plus he is pretty good coach, but I just do not see it.  I think Winston is just the better QB, period.  I really thought in that system he would put up big numbers.  It will be interesting to see how it all plays out Sunday.  I am also very curious how FanDuel handles Hill's position this weekend, if they make a change or not?

 
No FD won't be making any changes to existing positions for this weekends games. It's too far into the week. They are pushing it pretty hard on their social media pages to play Hill, even in the FD app under his analysis. They obviously don't want users complaining that they did not know about his status. I don't see how you don't play him at $4500 on FD in the flex spot. Sure you can plug him in within the TE spot but I think it makes most sense to use the flex spot with him. Or not....

 
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Taysom at TE playing QB really opens things up.  I do not mean saves money either, but it really opens new build options.  I almost always use three RBs.  This week I can use TE Andrews stacked with Lamar.  I can play TE in the FLEX spot and get a running QB with weapons playing a below average D.  How we figure out to build around Taysom will be key this week.

Updated Lineup:

Lamar - Cook/Kamara - Cooks/Meyer/Grant - Taysom/Andrews - Panthers

 

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