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Trying to find something unique without being to far out there is a challenge in the three game contest.  At least all three games have decent options from a fantasy perspective.  I assume the Texans are the most owned and the Lions are the least owned.  I also think most will take less pieces from the Steelers/Ravens game.

My placeholder:

Ben - Gibson/Duke/Gus - Diontae/McLaurin/Fuller - Ebron - WFT

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18 hours ago, FatNate said:

Trying to find something unique without being to far out there is a challenge in the three game contest.  At least all three games have decent options from a fantasy perspective.  I assume the Texans are the most owned and the Lions are the least owned.  I also think most will take less pieces from the Steelers/Ravens game.

My placeholder:

Ben - Gibson/Duke/Gus - Diontae/McLaurin/Fuller - Ebron - WFT

Looks like The Rona may postpone the Steelers/Ravens game, so may have to scrap this build.  I have some interest in Coutee, but he is cheap and may be more popular than he should be.  I will be interested in seeing his projected ownership numbers.  I will also strongly consider a Lions stack, even with Stafford's bad thumb and the possible missing pieces.  I did see that Swift was progressing, so that is a good thing and I think he makes a great play Thursday.

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8 hours ago, FatNate said:

Looks like The Rona may postpone the Steelers/Ravens game, so may have to scrap this build.  I have some interest in Coutee, but he is cheap and may be more popular than he should be.  I will be interested in seeing his projected ownership numbers.  I will also strongly consider a Lions stack, even with Stafford's bad thumb and the possible missing pieces.  I did see that Swift was progressing, so that is a good thing and I think he makes a great play Thursday.

BAL-PIT moved to Sunday. FD has not changed my build though.


EDIT: they just removed all BAL-PIT players...

Edited by Solomon Grundy
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On 11/24/2020 at 2:07 PM, KarmaPolice said:

Usually like playing them, but Thanksgiving slate is a bit brutal this year.  

Even the main slate is pretty brutal...You have to pay up somewhere, and when you do, it is slim pickings for value guys.

Placeholder... Ryan, Cook, Robinson, Gallman, Allen, Pittman, Byrd, Hurst, TEN

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On 11/24/2020 at 6:30 AM, FatNate said:

Only a two game slate now. Currently the league is only half full. The link is above. 

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On 11/25/2020 at 6:50 AM, FatNate said:

Looks like The Rona may postpone the Steelers/Ravens game, so may have to scrap this build.  I have some interest in Coutee, but he is cheap and may be more popular than he should be.  I will be interested in seeing his projected ownership numbers.  I will also strongly consider a Lions stack, even with Stafford's bad thumb and the possible missing pieces.  I did see that Swift was progressing, so that is a good thing and I think he makes a great play Thursday.

No Swift. 

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Dammit.  Was hoping for some ownership #s to look at.   Anyway, like Nate said last week, on first glance look at the games over 49 for the week:

LV/Atl, KC/TB, LaC/Buff, Tenn/Indy, Az/NE, and Clev/Jax    The two bolded are where the spread is 3pts or less.  

NOW compare that to the games that are projected for the fastest pace, and we have:  Az/NE, LaC/Buff, Tenn/Indy   and then next is KC/TB.     Those are the weeks I like to see - more options!  

 

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Per our conversation on Ds last week, the top 6 for DL vs OL sack potential were:  NO, Clev, NYG, Mia, Buff, LaR.     I am guessing one of these might be lower owned.  Actually the one that stood out was Buff, since that might be one people avoid because it's in a popular game.  But if they are shooting it out, going back and forth, AND there is chance for increased DL pressure.... 

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A couple things that stood out looking at ownership %, and the stuff that we talked about last week:

  • Jacobs RB1, Waller TE2.   If a pod was right, Atl since the coaching change has been damn good vs the run.   With Carr and Agholor projected for low ownership, I like the idea of that stack and using that to leverage off a high owned Rb.  
  • Buff D projected in <5%.   The other Ds were around 10%, so nothing super low owned there.   (different story on DK though as NO is projected at 3%).  
  • Also like last week there is a similar priced Rb to pivot to.  Instead of Jacobs, maybe Henry or Chubb?   Instead of Ballage, maybe D.Harris or Fournette?
  • I like going back to the well with a target hog like J.Meyers in a pace up game.  

 

gpp placement idea that I liked, but didn't love:

Carr - Chubb/Taylor/Fournette - Diggs/Allen/Agholor - Waller - Buff

 

A tweak on that is Beasley/Henry instead of Fournette/Diggs, and trying to find a sub 4K DT.  

 

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On 11/25/2020 at 6:23 PM, Galileo said:

Even the main slate is pretty brutal...You have to pay up somewhere, and when you do, it is slim pickings for value guys.

Placeholder... Ryan, Cook, Robinson, Gallman, Allen, Pittman, Byrd, Hurst, TEN

Cash line up sitting with Allen, Cook, Hill, Gallman, Allen, Pittman, Shenault, Waller, Ten.  Still tweaking...  Really wanted to get Waller in the line up.  Coming down from Robinson to Hill, after the Gurley news, buys me the $$ for Waller and a step up to Allen at QB.  Not sure I trust Hill or Shenault enough to make this line up stick, but I like the core of Allen, Cook, Allen, and Waller they afford me.

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I'm a little late to the party this week, but FWIW here are my thoughts on week 12.

Overall, it may be a bit tough to put together a killer lineup with the prices so high.  Winning will likely depend on finding great value guys to make room for the studs.

At QB we have the usual suspects: Mahomes, Murray, Allen, and Herbert.  All are pricey and stacking them will be a challenge.  I, personally am not as high on Mahomes as most, but he does have the highest projected FPs per Numberfire of the week.  I just wonder if Tampa will slow him down (I know he can not be stopped).  The O/U looks good for Murray, but how much will his shoulder injury affect him? Will Belicheck come up with a way to slow him down? Allen and Herbert are in a great matchup as well with a lot of potential.  A lot of points and great for stacking, just be ready to pay to play this matchup; although I do like Beasley at $5400 if John Brown doesn't play. But the highest O/U is LVR-ATL.  This is my choice to stack.  I usually don't like to go big at QB, so Derek Carr and Matt Ryan are my choices.  Plus, stacking these are made a lot easier using either Henry Ruggs ($5500) or Nelson Agholar ($5200).

Running Back has a few options as well.  Do you pay up for Cook or go mid-range? Also, Henry and Chubb are expected to do well, but can you fit them in if you go big at QB? Personally, I am all in on Cook. Doing that forces me to pay down at the other RB slot.  Thus, I am looking at Ballage (assuming Eckler doesn't play) at $5500 and Chase Edmonds ($5800). Also, Samaje Perrine ($4800) is a potential wildcard if Bernard doesn't play.  As for Henry and Chubb neither have great matchups, but I feel they have shown potential to do well despite the matchups.  FWIW,  I LOVE Kareem Hunt this week.  I know Chubb will have his solid game, but Hunt's potential and price ($6600) makes him an attractive option for me.

I am not going to talk too much at receiver.  These slots will depend largely on who you choose at QB.  I would like to mention a few stand alone choices for the flex position.  First is Justin Jefferson. If Theilen can not go against CAR, he becomes Cousins main threat at WR and he as already shown big game potential.  Another option is Michael Pittman.  TEN-IND should be a high scoring game (the challenge is figuring out who gets the TDs).  Pittman has been coming along over the last few weeks and at $5700, he could provide some salary relief. One I like is Curtis Samuel ($5900).  He is a bit of a boom or bust play, but he is getting more involved in the red zone. Finally, there is Jerry Jeudy.  While he hasn't had the big games you would like to see, he does provide a decent floor at a reasonable price ($5700).

Tight end for me will come down to whether or not I go big (Mahomes/Kelce) or not (Carr/Waller) so I will likely be going with the high end TEs.  Lower priced options I like this week are Engram ($5600) and Hooper ($5100). Another good choice - if you are willing to gamble - would be either Jack Doyle ($5100) or Trey Burton ($5400); I am fairly confident one will score a TD this week, I just don't know which.  Similarly,  either Irv Smith  ($5200) or Kyle Rudolph ($4600) may be worth a dart throw.

Last on the list is defense.  There are a few good matchups I like this week ( MIA, NO, CLE), but I will likely be looking to save at this position.  My first choice would be the NYG.  A decent defense going against a backup QB,  I am in.  But if I can not quite fit the Giants in, I usually end up with JAX.  JAX defense is not horrible and I don't think CLE passing game is that great so I am taking a chance on them.

 

After all that, he is how my lineup currently looks:

Carr / Cook / Hunt / Julio / Beasley / Agholar / Waller / Ballage / JAX

:2cents:

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2 hours ago, FatNate said:

My current lineup:


Jones - Cook/Hunt/Hill - Sheppard/Diggs/Meyers - Waller - Broncos

Researching this week, I was surprised to find out how good a play Jones is.  Compares favorably to Carr in many metrics this week.  He is an interesting choice and a great pivot.

Looking at your lineup. Engram may be worth considering at TE.  That way you could pay up to KAllen to create a secondary stack  You would have to come down some at D as well though

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2 hours ago, LoneWolf said:

 

Researching this week, I was surprised to find out how good a play Jones is.  Compares favorably to Carr in many metrics this week.  He is an interesting choice and a great pivot.

Looking at your lineup. Engram may be worth considering at TE.  That way you could pay up to KAllen to create a secondary stack  You would have to come down some at D as well though

Thanks for the feedback. I have no interest in running it back with a Bengal, but I also think Gallman is an option this week too. I really liked him and Ekelar this week, until Hill became an option. 

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10 hours ago, FatNate said:

Everyone loves Allen.  Lots of volume and great results.  High scoring game.  Any worry with White may match up with him in the slot?

Listened to a podcast that addressed that very topic this AM.  They said White would likely cover Allen on the outside, but would not move inside to the slot where, according to them, Allen spends about half his time.

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Edited by LoneWolf
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7 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

Seems like both sites I am looking at are saying B.Hill is not a great play in gpps on FD for the ownership.  More and more I am looking at using Agholor and maybe an ATL wr for leverage off Jacobs and Hill in that same game.  

I agree about Hill on several fronts.  He likely will have high ownership with his low cost. Plus, he may not produce.  Last year he came in and did not do well as a featured back

I too love Agholor.  He is Carr"s primary deep and red zone target.  I am a little concerned about Jacobs, but ATL is such a pass-funnelled defense that I am willing to fade Jacobs.  Renfrow and Edwards could be nice pivots, but like I said, Agholor is my choice.

Edited by LoneWolf
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4 hours ago, FatNate said:

So much value at RB. Is the play to go top end at RB?  
 

Jones - Cook/Chubb/Henry - Beasley/Cole/Pittman - Engram - Jets

 

FWIW, the difference between Cook (RB1) and Kamara (RB2) is 5.2 projected fantasy points (22.2 to 17) per Numberfire.  The difference between Henry (RB5) and Ekeler (RB8) is 1.8 points.  On the other end of the spectrum, the difference between Mahomes (QB3) and Carr (QB4) is 3.7 points.  In addition, the best value plays at RB are Hill and Robinson.

Conclusion: 

It is better to go for a high end QB. It is OK to go lower at running back. However, Cook is so much better than the field this week he is almost a must-start.  The challenge lies in making that work.

Edited by LoneWolf
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So I keep ending up coming back to LV and KC/TB stacks for my primary stacks.   I don't love that the LAC total is bottom 1/2 of the vegas totals, and a lot of the other Offenses in the top 6-7 of the Vegas totals have run heavy Os or offenses that are spread out.    Plus those stacks have a piece or two that are really low owned - LV has Carr and Agholor.  KC/TB have Brady, Godwin, and Evans for stacking that or having a low % runback.  

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1 hour ago, KarmaPolice said:

I am having trouble with Cook and that 11K price tag.     I think what most are leaning towards are him + N.Hines?   in gpps wouldn't something like Henry + Kamara or Henry + Chubb make more sense for equal or less salary and a lot lower ownership?

 

Yes, but in cash games Cook is pretty much a must play even at $11K.  There is enough value elsewhere to make it happen.

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I think I am in the minority this week.  I am paying up at RB. I have lots of Cook, Henry, and Hunt.  I favor Jones and Fitz at QB, over Mahomes and Allen. I have no Murray or Herbert. I am using tons of the chalky Saints D.  I am looking for value at WR - using a lot of Aghlor, Beasley, Cole, and Meyers. I am using Waller and Engram at TE. Should be an interesting week for me, if Jones does well and not so good if he struggles. I like Ekelar this week and I am afraid I am using to much Hunt and not enough Ek.  I have no Hopkins this week and very little Allen.  I also have no Jacobs this week, but I am more worried about being under on Chubb. A lot  of value opened up around $5.7 or cheaper this week at RB and WR. I think Gallman goes under owned and outperforms most in that range. 

Edited by FatNate
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46 minutes ago, FatNate said:

I think I am in the minority this week.  I am paying up at RB. I have lots of Cook, Henry, and Hunt.  I favor Jones and Fitz at QB, over Mahomes and Allen. I have no Murray or Herbert. I am using tons of the chalky Saints D.  I am looking for value at WR - using a lot of Aghlor, Beasley, Cole, and Meyers. I am using Waller and Engram at TE. Should be an interesting week for me, if Jones does well and not so good if he struggles. I like Ekelar this week and I am afraid I am using to much Hunt and not enough Ek.  I have no Hopkins this week and very little Allen.  I also have no Jacobs this week, but I am more worried about being under on Chubb. A lot  of value opened up around $5.7 or cheaper this week at RB and WR. I think Gallman goes under owned and outperforms most in that range. 

I did both.  There were a couple value wrs I liked, so like in our league, I have a Mahomes + tb game stack and Cook running at y'all.  

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