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2021 Top 50- First Look


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33 minutes ago, Ack88 said:

I think we have a pretty clear picture of Jacobs- a back end RB1 that will have trouble moving any higher due to a lack of passing game involvement, which is too bad because the skill set is there. LV is also uneven in how they play so there tends to be times where Jacobs seems to disappear. There’s nothing wrong with Jacobs, he’s a really solid player that is squarely within the top 15 selections next year, just not a top 7 player that we had hoped for.

Should have known when Gruden said in the offseason he wanted to greatly increase Jacobs’ passing game involvement.

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Trying to read the early tea leaves for next year. Standard scoring. Think keeper format, so a hybrid between redraft and true dynasty. My own process leads to a bias towards more short term players,

No, he's just drunk.

Update III (1/6/21): I'll repeat for new readers that my lens in a standard format, keeper style. Functionally, a hybrid between re-draft and dynasty, that trends more towards re-draft. As always, con

4 hours ago, zamboni said:

Should have known when Gruden said in the offseason he wanted to greatly increase Jacobs’ passing game involvement.

Yeah more often than not when a coach is saying stuff like this it is just hot air. Every once in awhile they actually do what they say they are going to do, just to keep us guessing.

I don't really get it. From what I have seen Jacobs is a good receiver. 

This brings me back to the pre NFL draft evaluation of Jacobs and in my opinion David Montgomery was similarly talented as Jacobs. I even leaned more on the Montgomery side of this I think mostly because I had more proof in the form of college plays that Montgomery was good than I did Jacobs at that time.

There was a big difference in draft capital invested in the players which suggests there is more of a gap between them than what I saw.

With both players having two seasons in the books now I think Montgomery has shown himself to be similarly good as Jacobs and without this draw back in how the coaches are not using him in the passing game. Maybe that problem reasserts itself with Cohen healthy next year.

Ack88 has Jacobs at 12 and Montgomery at 32. I think rankings a really hard, because there are so many different ways you could rank them. In my view these two players are closer to the same value than the ranking suggests. They are in the same tier for me. 

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3 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

Yeah more often than not when a coach is saying stuff like this it is just hot air. Every once in awhile they actually do what they say they are going to do, just to keep us guessing.

I don't really get it. From what I have seen Jacobs is a good receiver. 

This brings me back to the pre NFL draft evaluation of Jacobs and in my opinion David Montgomery was similarly talented as Jacobs. I even leaned more on the Montgomery side of this I think mostly because I had more proof in the form of college plays that Montgomery was good than I did Jacobs at that time.

There was a big difference in draft capital invested in the players which suggests there is more of a gap between them than what I saw.

With both players having two seasons in the books now I think Montgomery has shown himself to be similarly good as Jacobs and without this draw back in how the coaches are not using him in the passing game. Maybe that problem reasserts itself with Cohen healthy next year.

Ack88 has Jacobs at 12 and Montgomery at 32. I think rankings a really hard, because there are so many different ways you could rank them. In my view these two players are closer to the same value than the ranking suggests. They are in the same tier for me. 

When all is said and done, I'll likely have them closer than 20 spots together. Montgomery is likely to move up a bit, while Jacobs will likely dip a bit.

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6 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

Yeah more often than not when a coach is saying stuff like this it is just hot air. Every once in awhile they actually do what they say they are going to do, just to keep us guessing.

I don't really get it. From what I have seen Jacobs is a good receiver. 

This brings me back to the pre NFL draft evaluation of Jacobs and in my opinion David Montgomery was similarly talented as Jacobs. I even leaned more on the Montgomery side of this I think mostly because I had more proof in the form of college plays that Montgomery was good than I did Jacobs at that time.

There was a big difference in draft capital invested in the players which suggests there is more of a gap between them than what I saw.

With both players having two seasons in the books now I think Montgomery has shown himself to be similarly good as Jacobs and without this draw back in how the coaches are not using him in the passing game. Maybe that problem reasserts itself with Cohen healthy next year.

Ack88 has Jacobs at 12 and Montgomery at 32. I think rankings a really hard, because there are so many different ways you could rank them. In my view these two players are closer to the same value than the ranking suggests. They are in the same tier for me. 

I wouldn’t disregard what Cohen does to Montys snaps and touches. I do agree he has improved though. I would have Jacobs 15-18ish, and Monty 20-24ish. 

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On 1/4/2021 at 7:52 AM, The Show said:

I wouldn’t disregard what Cohen does to Montys snaps and touches. I do agree he has improved though. I would have Jacobs 15-18ish, and Monty 20-24ish. 

Yeah I am definitely not disregarding that very real possibility that his passing looks get reduced with Cohen back healthy.

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Update III (1/6/21): I'll repeat for new readers that my lens in a standard format, keeper style. Functionally, a hybrid between re-draft and dynasty, that trends more towards re-draft. As always, conversation, nitpicking, and the like is welcomed. 

 

2021 Preliminary Rankings- Phase III

1.      McCaffrey- Injuries aside, the per scoring numbers remain off the charts. He’s the single best performer, regardless of format.

2.      Cook- Excellent, well rounded RB with monstrous workload that trends run first.

3.      Kamara- The positive touchdown regression has come to fruition. Armed with a new contract and a strong supporting cast, will be a top 5 fixture for years to come. The Brees retirement question may drop him a couple of spots.

4.      Henry- Only a lack of involvement in the receiving game keeps him off the top spot. Could go #1 overall in standard formats. Be wary of massive workload.

5.      D. Adams- Has the consistent, high level production to perhaps go even higher in ppr formats.

6.      Zeke- For the turnstile at QB this year and patchwork line play, still produces consistently. Take advantage of the current scuttlebutt and terrible season by buying low. I know that I’m considerably higher on Zeke than consensus, but that will pay dividends in drafts next year. Still was an RB1 in standard leagues. Consider it a gift if he falls into round 2 in 2021.

7.      M. Thomas- Still an easy choice in round #1. A virtual lock for 110 grabs + in 2021 if Drew returns. Will drop, perhaps significantly, if Brees retires.

8.      A. Jones- Still love him in this offense. Even in a split backfield, produces in both run and receiving game. If he leaves via FA, a likely downgrade.

9.      J. Taylor- Has truly built momentum and looks to be a yardage king. Closed the season really well. Will perhaps be the 1.1 in dynasty startups this spring.

10.  T. Hill- The best weapon in football plays on the best team with the best QB.

11.  DK Metcalf- Tailed off at the end of the year but still poised for future success

12.  D. Hopkins- Has rounded into form more quickly than anticipated. Outlier- as he changed teams, traditionally a red flag, but remained elite.

13.  T. Kelce- Was too low first time around. Still the best TE set up with the best QB. The VBD number continues to be staggering. Have seen him as high as #1 overall in early 2021 rankings.

14.  Jacobs- A high quality back with receiving chops, but this skill set is under utilized by the current staff.

15.  Barkley- Injury rehab will tell the story. Back to back injury plagued seasons. Could move up to as high as #7 for me if process falls into place by camp. Could also move well down into the teens. This current spot is simply a placeholder.

16.  S. Diggs- Has combined outstanding production with heavy volume to truly enter elite territory.

17.  N. Chubb- Still a beast. Hunt limits upside but high floor remains in a run first offense.

18.  J. Jefferson- Has really exploded over the second half of the year with more room for growth. A first round pick in start up, ppr dynasty formats, but slightly lower in standard.

19.  Mixon- Hoping Burrow comes back in full and line issues addressed in the draft. I’ll bet I’m higher than most but should come back with a better line and massive workload. Has sneakily finished as a back end RB1 in the past, even with dry stretches.

20.  K. Allen- Targets with Herbert are insane. Risk averse folks may move him into first round as he has a very safe floor moving forward with Herbert.

21.  AJ Brown- Will be a full- fledged superstar if he plays 16 games. TO like strength and playmaking ability.

22.  A. Ekeler- A truly dynamic playmaker that should help Herbert’s ascension.

23.   C. Ridley- Growth projections many forecast have come to fruition.

24.  M. Sanders- Has first round ceiling. Can’t rank higher due to dings and surrounding cast and QB uncertainty.

25.  J. Robinson- Lack of name value will push him down many lists next summer, he’s the real deal and will likely be a value in drafts. Will the voluminous workload continue?

26.  D. Swift- Another potential riser depending upon coaching hires and projected workload. Early round 3 is my hedge and represents where I would take him with known knowledge.

27.  CEH- Uneven rookie year. KC still pass heavy. May be disproportionally downgraded based upon performance relative to, perhaps unreasonably high expectations.

28.  Dobbins- Need Ingram or Edwards to leave. Has looked really good in game action I’ve seen. Could easily rise into round #2 if a clear path to increased touches emerges.

29.  D Montgomery- Has combined a heavy workload and weak run defenses over the last several weeks to score as an RB1. More like an RB2 over the long term. Some folks will quibble with this spot, but the middle of round 3 feels right to me.

30.  T. Lockett- Might be 1B to Metcalf’s 1A but plenty productive.

31.  Mahomes- The best actual QB is also the best fantasy QB- plenty of surrounding talent leads to consistent play and production. Will likely be drafted higher in many leagues than I have him.

32.  J. Jones- Atlanta’s passing game is just not the same without him. HOF someday. Strong rebound candidate likely to outperform his ADP next spring.

33.  Kittle- Still an elite FF TE. Will Jimmy G. be back?

34.  A. Theilen- Jefferson has emerged as the lead WR but Theilen still solid as WR #7 overall in standard formats.

35.  J. Allen- Has made the leap few thought possible as a passer. Set up well for success. The #1 overall scorer in standard format. Rushing equity keeps floor very high.

36.  Mike Evans- 1,000 yards again and double digit TDs. Hard to argue against.

37.  A. Gibson- True dynasty players have him higher. Like talent, hate situation

38.  A. Cooper- If Dak is back, remains a legitimate, back end WR 1.

39.  Claypool- Make no mistake, he had an exceptional rookie year and will be again highly viable, but perhaps a bit TD dependent. Steelers have three quality options.

40.  K. Golladay- Will be a great value in 2021. Team shakeup on the horizon. 2021 landing spot will play a major role in his ranking.

41.  Hunt- The Browns are set up to feature multiple RBs and can allow both to produce.

42.  CD Lamb- Will be higher in dynasty. Has legit WR1 skills. Cooper leaves?

43.  R. Wilson- Finished the year on a statistical downward trend but a safe top 5 QB.

44.  McLaurin- New QB will help significantly. Has a terrific skill set. If a viable signal caller takes the reigns, TM will move up several spots.

45.  K. Murray- Still growing as a passer, but already elite as a point producer.

46.  A. Robinson- WR #12 in standard format. If he departs Chicago, a potential riser.

47.  K. Drake- Has not lived up to the summer hype but I still believe he will be better in 2021.

48.  R. Woods- Always produces rock solid numbers but lacks elite upside.

49.  C. Carson- Simply gets hurt too much to take higher. Money when he plays.

50.  Godwin- Don’t feel AB will be in TB long term, Evans not ideal for Brady’s skill set, leaving Godwin as an excellent WR option next year.

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Mixon and Jacobs should switch spots in my opinion. Mixon plays all 3 downs like the elite backs. If Burrow returns to form in July/August Mixon should be back end of the 1st. 

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59 minutes ago, fruity pebbles said:

Jacobs in particular looks high to me

Here's the case for Jacobs: He's averaged about 1100 rush yards and nearly 10 TDs per season over his first two years. At a minimum, he is the dominant rusher in the LV ground attack. While not a ppr dynamo, he has increased his catches from 20 in 2019 to 33 in 2020. As a floor, he's demonstrated that he is a back end RB #1. Expecting that rate of return in early round #2 is reasonable. While I agree that several backs below him have a higher ceiling, I'd argue that none of them have a safer floor, thus his #14 overall ranking. As a matter of roster construction, I tend to seek the higher floor players early on, but recognize others are more ceiling play oriented. 

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I think you will end up a lot higher on Zeke. I think he's a 3rd rounder. I could see Zeke/Pollard going down a Gordon/Ekeler road.

I'm expecting Brees to retire, or just be gone. So, I think that is at least a round high for Michael Thomas. Another guy I'd like in round 3.

I actually like where Jacobs is, I think he's got a pretty high floor, and is on an offense still on the upswing.

I like Ekeler a bit more. He's RB4 and RB7 per game the last 2 seasons. He's the centerpiece of the offense, and is a candidate to lead the position in receiving. I think he and Kamara are equals, in a post-Brees world. I'd be thrilled to get him at the 1/2 turn.

I'm a ton lower on CEH and Dobbins, in both cases I just don't see the workload being there. I think they are good zero-RB targets, in round 5/6, but I think they are full blown RBBC guys, in offenses that feature QB's stealing TD's, or red zone passing.

I think that is way too high for Josh Allen. I've actually got him as QB4, and expect regression. 

I'm quite a bit higher on Gibson. He's still learning the position and the offense should be improved. I don't see a real difference between him and say, Joe Mixon.

I think that very premature on Lamb. I saw a lot of worrying effort from him this season. I think he's highly unlikely to make a move to #1 status, and Dallas won't be as productive as they were the first month of this year, when Dak was on a 6,000 passing yard pace. Lamb is a decent WR3, but probably a 6th round guy to me.

I'm not super high on Russell Wilson, I've got him as QB7. 

I have Murray as QB2, but outside the top-50.

Assuming he stays put, I think Drake is maybe the premier bounce back candidate. He had some bad luck with injuries, but seemed to clearly hold off Edmonds. I like him at the 3/4 turn.

A couple guys off the list that I would have in my top-50:

Ronald Jones, assuming Brady stays, which I think he does, unless Tampa wins the Super Bowl, I think Jones has clearly established himself as the #1 RB in a top offense. I have him in the Mixon/Gibson range.

Raheem Mostert, just a matter of staying healthy. I have him in the Drake/Sanders area. High risk/high reward, which is actually how I'd describe Sanders too.

Will Fuller, I think there is about a 90% chance he stays in Houston. He was basically as productive as Calvin Ridley before his suspension. Fuller is a 3/4 turn guy for me, even with missing week 1.

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1 hour ago, travdogg said:

I think you will end up a lot higher on Zeke. I think he's a 3rd rounder. I could see Zeke/Pollard going down a Gordon/Ekeler road.

I'm expecting Brees to retire, or just be gone. So, I think that is at least a round high for Michael Thomas. Another guy I'd like in round 3.

I actually like where Jacobs is, I think he's got a pretty high floor, and is on an offense still on the upswing.

I like Ekeler a bit more. He's RB4 and RB7 per game the last 2 seasons. He's the centerpiece of the offense, and is a candidate to lead the position in receiving. I think he and Kamara are equals, in a post-Brees world. I'd be thrilled to get him at the 1/2 turn.

I'm a ton lower on CEH and Dobbins, in both cases I just don't see the workload being there. I think they are good zero-RB targets, in round 5/6, but I think they are full blown RBBC guys, in offenses that feature QB's stealing TD's, or red zone passing.

I think that is way too high for Josh Allen. I've actually got him as QB4, and expect regression. 

I'm quite a bit higher on Gibson. He's still learning the position and the offense should be improved. I don't see a real difference between him and say, Joe Mixon.

I think that very premature on Lamb. I saw a lot of worrying effort from him this season. I think he's highly unlikely to make a move to #1 status, and Dallas won't be as productive as they were the first month of this year, when Dak was on a 6,000 passing yard pace. Lamb is a decent WR3, but probably a 6th round guy to me.

I'm not super high on Russell Wilson, I've got him as QB7. 

I have Murray as QB2, but outside the top-50.

Assuming he stays put, I think Drake is maybe the premier bounce back candidate. He had some bad luck with injuries, but seemed to clearly hold off Edmonds. I like him at the 3/4 turn.

A couple guys off the list that I would have in my top-50:

Ronald Jones, assuming Brady stays, which I think he does, unless Tampa wins the Super Bowl, I think Jones has clearly established himself as the #1 RB in a top offense. I have him in the Mixon/Gibson range.

Raheem Mostert, just a matter of staying healthy. I have him in the Drake/Sanders area. High risk/high reward, which is actually how I'd describe Sanders too.

Will Fuller, I think there is about a 90% chance he stays in Houston. He was basically as productive as Calvin Ridley before his suspension. Fuller is a 3/4 turn guy for me, even with missing week 1.

The above is why I post these rankings. Thanks for responding. We all get better as a result of discussion. While I won't respond to every point, my counters on a few players below:

Thomas- Even if Brees does retire, and I only see about a 30% chance of that happening, I'd only drop Thomas into the round 2 range, say around pick 16-18. If he made it to me in round 3, I'd be happy. 

Ekeler- If I knew he could stay healthy and play 16 games, I'm there with you. The talent, skill set, and role all set up well for a big year. I'm slightly concerned about durability, which is why I'm a touch lower, but make no mistake- I believe in the talent. 

Dobbins and CEH- You could be right. I'm placing them at their respective spots because I forsee an uptick for both in usage next year. I think CEH will be much better next year and make a leap. Dobbins is the best back on the Ravens and with Ingram likely gone, see more carries. To your point- I'm a little higher than consensus on both right now. 

Allen- He was QB #1 and Player #1 overall with built in rushing equity. Sure, he may drop a touch, but he's squarely in the top 40 players. The idea that there is infinite QB depth and that you can simply just take a double digit round QB in one QB leagues is devolving a bit into urban legend status. You need a QB with rushing upside to contend. There are truly only a small subset of great QB. 

Lamb may be a touch high for next year, but in a keeper format, with Cooper potentially gone in 2022- look out.

Russ and Murray belong in the top 50, but I can't argue if you, let's say, have them 10-12 spots lower. 

Again, thanks for the discussion!

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  • 2 weeks later...

Updated to include a top 60. This represents the "core" (6 rounds in a 10 team league, 5 rounds in a 12 team league) where I believe you should draft primarily BPA. This is a standard format. Keeper format- so a hybrid between redraft and dynasty that leans slightly more to redraft. (1/15/21)

2021 Preliminary Rankings- Phase IV

1.      McCaffrey- Injuries aside, the per scoring numbers remain off the charts. He’s the single best performer, regardless of format.

2.      Cook- Excellent, well rounded RB with monstrous workload that trends run first.

3.      Kamara- The positive touchdown regression has come to fruition. Armed with a new contract and a strong supporting cast, will be a top 5 fixture for years to come. The Brees retirement question may drop him a couple of spots.

4.      Henry- Only a lack of involvement in the receiving game keeps him off the top spot. Could go #1 overall in standard formats. Be wary of massive workload.

5.      D. Adams- Has the consistent, high level production to perhaps go even higher in ppr formats.

6.      Zeke- For the turnstile at QB this year and patchwork line play, still produces consistently. Take advantage of the current scuttlebutt and terrible season by buying low. I know that I’m considerably higher on Zeke than consensus, but that will pay dividends in drafts next year. Still was an RB1 in standard leagues. Consider it a gift if he falls into round 2 in 2021.

7.      M. Thomas- Still an easy choice in round #1. A virtual lock for 110 grabs + in 2021 if Drew returns. Will drop, perhaps significantly, if Brees retires.

8.      A. Jones- Still love him in this offense. Even in a split backfield, produces in both run and receiving game. If he leaves via FA, a likely downgrade.

9.      J. Taylor- Has truly built momentum and looks to be a yardage king. Closed the season really well. Will perhaps be the 1.1 in dynasty startups this spring.

10.  T. Hill- The best weapon in football plays on the best team with the best QB.

11.  DK Metcalf- Tailed off at the end of the year but still poised for future success

12.  D. Hopkins- Has rounded into form more quickly than anticipated. Outlier- as he changed teams, traditionally a red flag, but remained elite.

13.  T. Kelce- Was too low first time around. Still the best TE set up with the best QB. The VBD number continues to be staggering. Have seen him as high as #1 overall in early 2021 rankings.

14.  Jacobs- A high quality back with receiving chops, but this skill set is under utilized by the current staff.

15.  Barkley- Injury rehab will tell the story. Back to back injury plagued seasons. Could move up to as high as #7 for me if process falls into place by camp. Could also move well down into the teens. This current spot is simply a placeholder.

16.  S. Diggs- Has combined outstanding production with heavy volume to truly enter elite territory.

17.  N. Chubb- Still a beast. Hunt limits upside but high floor remains in a run first offense.

18.  J. Jefferson- Has really exploded over the second half of the year with more room for growth. A first round pick in start up, ppr dynasty formats, but slightly lower in standard.

19.  Mixon- Hoping Burrow comes back in full and line issues addressed in the draft. I’ll bet I’m higher than most but should come back with a better line and massive workload. Has sneakily finished as a back end RB1 in the past, even with dry stretches.

20.  K. Allen- Targets with Herbert are insane. Risk averse folks may move him into first round as he has a very safe floor moving forward with Herbert.

21.  AJ Brown- Will be a full- fledged superstar if he plays 16 games. TO like strength and playmaking ability.

22.  A. Ekeler- A truly dynamic playmaker that should help Herbert’s ascension.

23.   C. Ridley- Growth projections many forecast have come to fruition.

24.  M. Sanders- Has first round ceiling. Can’t rank higher due to dings and surrounding cast and QB uncertainty.

25.  J. Robinson- Lack of name value will push him down many lists next summer, he’s the real deal and will likely be a value in drafts. Will the voluminous workload continue?

26.  D. Swift- Another potential riser depending upon coaching hires and projected workload. Early round 3 is my hedge and represents where I would take him with known knowledge.

27.  CEH- Uneven rookie year. KC still pass heavy. May be disproportionally downgraded based upon performance relative to, perhaps unreasonably high expectations.

28.  Dobbins- Need Ingram or Edwards to leave. Has looked really good in game action I’ve seen. Could easily rise into round #2 if a clear path to increased touches emerges.

29.  D Montgomery- Has combined a heavy workload and weak run defenses over the last several weeks to score as an RB1. More like an RB2 over the long term. Some folks will quibble with this spot, but the middle of round 3 feels right to me.

30.  T. Lockett- Might be 1B to Metcalf’s 1A but plenty productive.

31.  Mahomes- The best actual QB is also the best fantasy QB- plenty of surrounding talent leads to consistent play and production. Will likely be drafted higher in many leagues than I have him.

32.  J. Jones- Atlanta’s passing game is just not the same without him. HOF someday. Strong rebound candidate likely to outperform his ADP next spring.

33.  Kittle- Still an elite FF TE. Will Jimmy G. be back?

34.  A. Theilen- Jefferson has emerged as the lead WR but Theilen still solid as WR #7 overall in standard formats.

35.  J. Allen- Has made the leap few thought possible as a passer. Set up well for success. The #1 overall scorer in standard format. Rushing equity keeps floor very high.

36.  Mike Evans- 1,000 yards again and double digit TDs. Hard to argue against.

37.  A. Gibson- True dynasty players have him higher. Like talent, hate situation

38.  A. Cooper- If Dak is back, remains a legitimate, back end WR 1.

39.  Claypool- Make no mistake, he had an exceptional rookie year and will be again highly viable, but perhaps a bit TD dependent. Steelers have three quality options.

40.  K. Golladay- Will be a great value in 2021. Team shakeup on the horizon. 2021 landing spot will play a major role in his ranking.

41.  Hunt- The Browns are set up to feature multiple RBs and can allow both to produce.

42.  CD Lamb- Will be higher in dynasty. Has legit WR1 skills. Cooper leaves?

43.  R. Wilson- Finished the year on a statistical downward trend but a safe top 5 QB.

44.  McLaurin- New QB will help significantly. Has a terrific skill set. If a viable signal caller takes the reigns, TM will move up several spots.

45.  K. Murray- Still growing as a passer, but already elite as a point producer.

46.  A. Robinson- WR #12 in standard format. If he departs Chicago, a potential riser.

47.  K. Drake- Has not lived up to the summer hype but I still believe he will be better in 2021.

48.  R. Woods- Always produces rock solid numbers but lacks elite upside.

49.  C. Carson- Simply gets hurt too much to take higher. Money when he plays.

50.  Godwin- Don’t feel AB will be in TB long term, Evans not ideal for Brady’s skill set, leaving Godwin as an excellent WR option next year.

51.  C. Akers- The postseason has given a taste of what could be.

52.  L. Jackson- A relatively slow start has been offset by an outstanding closing act.

53.  DJ Moore- Still a solid WR #2. QB in 2021?

54.  R. Mostert- If health returns and large carry share re-emerges, could go higher.

55.  D. Watson- Simply a great player and deserving of more from his organization.

56.  R. Jones- Tough for me to rank any higher but has been solid.

57.  M. Gordon- Reasonable spot for a back end RB 2.

58.  W. Fuller- Was having a borderline WR1 campaign before PED test.

59.  D. Johnson- Huge target volume. Does Ben return….does Ju-Ju?

60.  B. Aiyuk- A playmaker. Who is the QB? How does Deebo split targets with him.

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41 minutes ago, steelerfan1 said:

@Ack88no love for Waller? I think he should be in top 60 discussion.

I do like him. He could crack this list but, as of right now, is just outside this group. I did think about including him, and, if this were ppr or ppr premium, he's be in.

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1 hour ago, Ack88 said:

I do like him. He could crack this list but, as of right now, is just outside this group. I did think about including him, and, if this were ppr or ppr premium, he's be in.

Even without any PPR he should be in the top 50.

He scored 9 TD in 2020 and has back to back 1000 yard seasons, at the TE position. He had 145 targets last season same as Travis Kelce. Only 5 WR had more targets than Waller in 2020.

Where to rank the TE against the other positions is something I think is particularly hard and I have struggled with that in the past. I tend to value the TE position a bit more than I think most people do. 

Put that aside for a moment though and just look at his numbers as a WR. He should be ranked as a top 24 WR (WR 16-19 or so??) based on that alone. He had the 10th most receiving yards in 2020.

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I also meant to respond to the comment about risk of WR changing teams. 

While I think it is legitimate to wonder how change might affect any player what I think we have seen is that talent translates to any team any scheme. Hopkins and Diggs in 2020 proved that again. Brandin Cooks has proven that multiple times now in his career.

There are times where the transition doesn't work out, but I think that is usually more about the player than the change of teams. Kelvin Benjamin for example.

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On 1/15/2021 at 8:21 PM, JetMaxx said:

@Ack88 Akers was not considered in the first rankings. Now 51? Come on man :lmao:

Going back to the initial rankings in November, Akers was not getting the touches and production to be in a top 50. Given the last 6 weeks, that clearly has changed. He will move up in the next set of rankings. 

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On 1/15/2021 at 8:15 PM, Biabreakable said:

I also meant to respond to the comment about risk of WR changing teams. 

While I think it is legitimate to wonder how change might affect any player what I think we have seen is that talent translates to any team any scheme. Hopkins and Diggs in 2020 proved that again. Brandin Cooks has proven that multiple times now in his career.

There are times where the transition doesn't work out, but I think that is usually more about the player than the change of teams. Kelvin Benjamin for example.

You are correct in that narrative having flipped. There are enough contemporary examples of smooth transitions to mostly refute the "WR that change teams don't do well in their first year."

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On 1/15/2021 at 8:03 PM, Biabreakable said:

Even without any PPR he should be in the top 50.

He scored 9 TD in 2020 and has back to back 1000 yard seasons, at the TE position. He had 145 targets last season same as Travis Kelce. Only 5 WR had more targets than Waller in 2020.

Where to rank the TE against the other positions is something I think is particularly hard and I have struggled with that in the past. I tend to value the TE position a bit more than I think most people do. 

Put that aside for a moment though and just look at his numbers as a WR. He should be ranked as a top 24 WR (WR 16-19 or so??) based on that alone. He had the 10th most receiving yards in 2020.

You make good points. I'm struggling to put him above anyone already on the list- but make no mistake- I'd like to have him on my roster next year.

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1 hour ago, Ack88 said:

Going back to the initial rankings in November, Akers was not getting the touches and production to be in a top 50. Given the last 6 weeks, that clearly has changed. He will move up in the next set of rankings. 

For a legit ranking you need to see it before it happens. Everyone sees it now 

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Ingram now expected to be released by the Ravens.  Dobbins likely the beneficiary although Ingram had been a scratch the last few games.

Believe Chubb remains highly underrated - but understand circumstance as he shares the load with Hunt.  

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22 hours ago, Ack88 said:

You make good points. I'm struggling to put him above anyone already on the list- but make no mistake- I'd like to have him on my roster next year.

I think he should be ranked somewhere between 25 and 35. Most wont draft Waller in the first two rounds and they maybe try to wait for the 4th round (rank 37-48) to take him but he is providing value above investment at that point if he puts up similar numbers as the last two seasons.

I can understand doubting Waller going into the 2020 season as he was only a one year wonder at that point. With two years of similarly high production I don't think its a fluke. 

I think Waller is a reason why people wont get as much as they hope from Ruggs, Edwards and so on with the Raiders because Waller is such a target hog.

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On 1/18/2021 at 8:01 PM, JetMaxx said:

For a legit ranking you need to see it before it happens. Everyone sees it now 

I'm not sure I agree. For every Akers that works out, there are scores of guys that are overdrafted based on speculation. I certainly understand that some of them do hit, but I'm not going to move a player into a high round based solely on a few weeks. Akers literally was in a three way timeshare with scant workload for the first 10 weeks of this year. There is no way, at least for me, that I pass on a proven player in this format (keeper is different). 

 

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On 1/18/2021 at 8:01 PM, JetMaxx said:

For a legit ranking you need to see it before it happens. Everyone sees it now 

You have it backwards. You evaluate what the market thinks and if you are more bullish or bearish you arbitrage for value. None of these rankings are ‘right’, they are a snapshot of perceived value.

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On 1/19/2021 at 11:30 AM, Edgar said:

Akers truthers will take him in the 2nd.

Hi ADP is 4.04 in half-ppr, according to fantasy football calculator. It will likely continue to rise.

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On 1/21/2021 at 1:37 PM, Babooya said:

You have it backwards. You evaluate what the market thinks and if you are more bullish or bearish you arbitrage for value. None of these rankings are ‘right’, they are a snapshot of perceived value.

Are you sure?

As I am having a Inigo Montoya moment just now.

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14 hours ago, Babooya said:

I doubt we are disagreeing but meme away

Well do you have overlap in your leagues where they are actually the same market?

If not then it isn't arbitrage is it? Your just buying and selling at different prices in separate markets.

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On 1/29/2021 at 2:13 PM, Biabreakable said:

Well do you have overlap in your leagues where they are actually the same market?

If not then it isn't arbitrage is it? Your just buying and selling at different prices in separate markets.

Depends on how you look at it. You aren’t selling for universal currency, you are trading value for value. Essentially bartering. Everyone  has differing perceived asset value. My extraordinarily simple point was that you use rankings and mocks to figure out how to exploit that perceived value difference in trades as much possible. 

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6 hours ago, Babooya said:

Depends on how you look at it. You aren’t selling for universal currency, you are trading value for value. Essentially bartering. Everyone  has differing perceived asset value. My extraordinarily simple point was that you use rankings and mocks to figure out how to exploit that perceived value difference in trades as much possible. 

Yeah well sorry if I am being a nerd about this. I do get your point. I just think arbitrage is something other than that. There are a lot of people who use that word to mean what you mean by it and I have the same reaction to that as well. Its just something that bothers me because I think its a word used to make someone look smart by saying it then fails because of the inaccuracy of the statement.

If I could buy player X for 10 value points in league A and sell player X for 12 points in league B. Player X being the same asset and I could do that thousands of times in a short time frame, that would be arbitrage. All I can do in fantasy football is buy or sell the player once as far as the limited market of my league. Deals I make in other leagues do not affect my team in this league.

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On 1/31/2021 at 3:12 PM, Biabreakable said:

Yeah well sorry if I am being a nerd about this. I do get your point. I just think arbitrage is something other than that. There are a lot of people who use that word to mean what you mean by it and I have the same reaction to that as well. Its just something that bothers me because I think its a word used to make someone look smart by saying it then fails because of the inaccuracy of the statement.

If I could buy player X for 10 value points in league A and sell player X for 12 points in league B. Player X being the same asset and I could do that thousands of times in a short time frame, that would be arbitrage. All I can do in fantasy football is buy or sell the player once as far as the limited market of my league. Deals I make in other leagues do not affect my team in this league.

Fair enough. My last point, if you look at each owner within the league as an individual market with unique determinations of asset values the analogy works fine

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Updated for Super Bowl weekend. For those new to looking at my thoughts- the texture is non-ppr, keeper format- so tilted slightly more to redraft than to dynasty, but some dynasty thoughts sprinkled in. I'm an RB first player, so you will see that bias come through. Some changes from version IV. Would love feedback and debate:

2021 Preliminary Rankings- Phase V

1.      McCaffrey- Injuries aside, the per scoring numbers remain off the charts. He’s the single best performer, regardless of format.

2.      Cook- Excellent, well rounded RB with monstrous workload that trends run first.

3.      Henry- Only a lack of involvement in the receiving game keeps him off the top spot. Could go #1 overall in standard formats. Be wary of massive workload

4.      Kamara- The positive touchdown regression has come to fruition. Armed with a new contract and a strong supporting cast, will be a top 5 fixture for years to come. At this point, his ranking is based on Brees retirement.

5.      Zeke- For the turnstile at QB this year and patchwork line play, still produces consistently. Take advantage of the current scuttlebutt and terrible season by buying low. I know that I’m considerably higher on Zeke than consensus, but that will pay dividends in drafts next year. Still was an RB1 in standard leagues. Consider it a gift if he falls into round 2 in 2021. I love the possibility of going Zeke/Mixon next year if I’m at the back end of the Round 1 draft order. Zeke looks like a late first in early mocks. I’m above consenses and will plant my flag here.

6.      D. Adams- Has the consistent, high level production to perhaps go even higher in ppr formats.

7.      J. Taylor- Has truly built momentum and looks to be a yardage king. Closed the season really well. Will perhaps be the 1.1 in dynasty startups this spring. Curious to see how the Colts replace Rivers. This ranking presumes an average QB gets here, but not a Watson- type.

8.      A. Jones- Still love him in this offense. Even in a split backfield, produces in both run and receiving game. If he leaves via FA, a likely downgrade.

9.      T. Hill- The best weapon in football plays on the best team with the best QB.

10.  T. Kelce- Was too low first time around. Still the best TE set up with the best QB. The VBD number continues to be staggering. Have seen him as high as #1 overall in early 2021 rankings.

11.  DK Metcalf- Tailed off at the end of the year but still poised for future success

12.  Barkley- Injury rehab will tell the story. Back to back injury plagued seasons. Could move up to as high as #7 for me if process falls into place by camp. Could also move well down into the teens. This current spot is simply a placeholder.

13.  D. Hopkins- Has rounded into form more quickly than anticipated. Outlier- as he changed teams, traditionally a red flag, but remained elite.

14.  Mixon- I know that I’m well above consensus but want to ensure I’m heavily invested in Mixon next year. He will be a huge value and an excellent buy low.

15.  J. Jefferson- Has really exploded over the second half of the year with more room for growth. A first round pick in start up, ppr dynasty formats, but slightly lower in standard.

16.  Thomas- This ranking is based upon Brees stepping away from the NFL.

17.  Jacobs- A high quality back with receiving chops, but this skill set is under utilized by the current staff. Still produces as an RB1 level.

18.  S. Diggs- Has combined outstanding production with heavy volume to truly enter elite territory.

19.  N. Chubb- Still a beast. Hunt limits upside but high floor remains in a run first offense.

20.  A. Ekeler- A truly dynamic playmaker that should help Herbert’s ascension.

21.  AJ Brown- Will be a full- fledged superstar if he plays 16 games. TO like strength and playmaking ability.

22.  K. Allen- Targets with Herbert are insane. Risk averse folks may move him into first round as he has a very safe floor moving forward with Herbert.

23.  Mahomes- The best actual QB is also the best fantasy QB- plenty of surrounding talent leads to consistent play and production. The VBD value over multiple seasons makes for a worthy second round choice.

24.  C. Ridley- Grew into a huge role last year.

25.  M. Sanders- Has first round ceiling. Can’t rank higher due to dings and surrounding cast and QB uncertainty.

26.  Kittle- Still an elite FF TE. Will Jimmy G. be back?

27.  C. Akers- The postseason has given a taste of what could be. Stafford’s addition helps.

28.  J. Robinson- Lack of name value will push him down many lists next summer, he’s the real deal and will likely be a value in drafts. Will the voluminous workload continue?

29.  A. Theilen- Jefferson has emerged as the lead WR but Theilen still solid as WR #7 overall in standard formats.

30.  D. Swift- Another potential riser depending upon coaching hires and projected workload. Early round 3 is my hedge and represents where I would take him with known knowledge.

31.  Dobbins- Still will be very productive despite likely lead role in a committee.

32.  D Montgomery- Has combined a heavy workload and weak run defenses over the last several weeks to score as an RB1. More like an RB2 over the long term. Some folks will quibble with this spot, but the middle of round 3 feels right to me.

33.  A. Cooper- If Dak is back, remains a legitimate, back end WR 1.

34.  T. Lockett- Might be 1B to Metcalf’s 1A but plenty productive.

35.  J. Jones- Atlanta’s passing game is just not the same without him. HOF someday. Strong rebound candidate likely to outperform his ADP next spring.

36.  CEH- Underwhelming as a rookie. Looks to be in some form of timeshare for the foreseeable future. Still, playing in the league’s best offense with the potential of having an in person training camp next year helps.

37.  A. Robinson- WR #12 in standard format. If he departs Chicago, a potential riser.

38.  J. Allen- Has made the leap few thought possible as a passer. Set up well for success. The #1 overall scorer in standard format. Rushing equity keeps floor very high.

39.  Mike Evans- 1,000 yards again and double digit TDs. Hard to argue against.

40.  A. Gibson- True dynasty players have him higher. Like talent, hate situation

41.  D. Watson- Simply a great player and deserving of more from his organization. See an overwhelming chance he is dealt.

42.  R. Woods- Always produces rock solid numbers but lacks elite upside. Stafford will elevate his value.

43.  Claypool- Make no mistake, he had an exceptional rookie year and will be again highly viable, but perhaps a bit TD dependent. Steelers have three quality options.

44.  Godwin- I think the slightly down 2020 season sets up a nice value based buy low, perhaps 85 cents or so on the dollar. Brady will be back and finger fully healed.

45.  K. Golladay- Goff is a downgrade to Golladay’s deep ball chops. Imagine if Golladay leaves the motor city?

46.  Hunt- The Browns are set up to feature multiple RBs and can allow both to produce.

47.  CD Lamb- Will be higher in dynasty. Has legit WR1 skills. Cooper leaves in 2022?

48.  L. Jackson- A relatively slow start has been offset by an outstanding closing act.

49.  R. Wilson- Finished the year on a statistical downward trend but a safe top 5 QB.

50.  McLaurin- New QB will help significantly. Has a terrific skill set. If a viable signal caller takes the reigns, TM will move up several spots.

51.  K. Murray- Still growing as a passer, but already elite as a point producer.

52.  K. Drake- Has not lived up to the summer hype but I still believe he will be better in 2021. Wondering if he comes back with Cardinals.

53.  C. Carson- Simply gets hurt too much to take higher. Money when he plays. An ideal buy now for those in a contending window. Little dynasty value.

54.  M. Gordon- Reasonable spot for a back end RB 2.

55.  DJ Moore- Still a solid WR #2. QB in 2021? Moves up if Watson lands in Carolia.

56.  R. Mostert- If health returns and large carry share re-emerges, could go higher.

57.  R. Jones- Tough for me to rank any higher but has been solid. No passing game role.

58.  W. Fuller- Was having a borderline WR1 campaign before PED test.

59.  D. Johnson- Huge target volume. Does Ben return….does Ju-Ju?

60.  B. Aiyuk- A playmaker. Who is the QB? How does Deebo split targets with him.

 

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Good stuff Ack88. I dont have too much to add that hasn't been mentioned already. I would take Waller ahead of Lockett. So I think he should slot in around the 30s otherwise its just small things like preferring Swift over Akers and so on.

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  • 1 month later...

Updated 3/16

2021 Preliminary Rankings- Phase VI

1.      McCaffrey- Injuries aside, the per scoring numbers remain off the charts. He’s the single best performer, regardless of format.

2.      Cook- Excellent, well rounded RB with monstrous workload that trends run first.

3.      Henry- Only a lack of involvement in the receiving game keeps him off the top spot. Could go #1 overall in standard formats. Likely, based on historical norms, primed for one or two more big years before steep drop.

4.      Zeke- For the turnstile at QB this year and patchwork line play, still produces consistently. Take advantage of the current scuttlebutt and terrible season by buying low. I know that I’m considerably higher on Zeke than consensus, but that will pay dividends in drafts next year. Still was an RB1 in standard leagues. Consider it a gift if he falls into round 2 in 2021. I love the possibility of going Zeke/Mixon next year if I’m at the back end of the Round 1 draft order. Zeke looks like a late first in early mocks. I’m above consensus and will plant my flag here.

5.      D. Adams- Has the consistent, high level production to perhaps go even higher in ppr formats. Unlikely to surpass last year’s astounding numbers but the clear WR1.

6.      J. Taylor- Has truly built momentum and looks to be a yardage king. Closed the season really well. Will perhaps be the 1.1 in dynasty startups this spring. The Rivers to Wentz transition does not change my valuation.

7.      A. Jones- Still love him in this offense. Optimally efficient. Now that his long term place in GB is secure, no reason why he’s not an easy first round pick.

8.      T. Hill- The best weapon in football plays on the best team with the best QB.

9.      T. Kelce- Was too low first time around. Still the best TE set up with the best QB. The VBD number continues to be staggering. Have seen him as high as #1 overall in early 2021 rankings.

10.  Kamara- While still a stud, has to be moved back from original rankings with Brees’s retirement. If Hill is the starting QB next year, some concern is merited. With the unknown status of the Saint’s QB situation, I’m dropping him back a few slots. He remains in my top 10 but well below consensus.

11.  DK Metcalf- Tailed off at the end of the year but still poised for future success

12.  Barkley- Injury rehab will tell the story. Back to back injury plagued seasons. Could move up to as high as #7 for me if process falls into place by camp. Could also move well down into the teens. This current spot is simply a placeholder.

13.  D. Hopkins- Has rounded into form more quickly than anticipated. Outlier- as he changed teams, traditionally a red flag, but remained elite.

14.  Mixon- I know that I’m well above consensus but want to ensure I’m heavily invested in Mixon next year. He will be a huge value and an excellent buy low.

15.  J. Jefferson- Has really exploded over the second half of the year with more room for growth. A first round pick in start up, ppr dynasty formats, but slightly lower in standard. I think he’s really, really good but has been just a tad overrated thus far.

16.  N. Chubb- Still a beast. Hunt limits upside but high floor remains in a run first offense.

 

17.  Jacobs- A high quality back with receiving chops, but this skill set is under utilized by the current staff. Still produces as an RB1 level.

18.  S. Diggs- Has combined outstanding production with heavy volume to truly enter elite territory.

19.  A. Ekeler- A truly dynamic playmaker that should help Herbert’s ascension.

20.  AJ Brown- Will be a full- fledged superstar if he plays 16 games. TO like strength and playmaking ability.

21.  Thomas- Going from Brees to Hill/Winston is a clear downgrade. Still overall WR #8.

22.  K. Allen- Targets with Herbert are insane. Risk averse folks may move him into first round as he has a very safe floor moving forward with Herbert.

23.  Mahomes- The best actual QB is also the best fantasy QB- plenty of surrounding talent leads to consistent play and production. The VBD value over multiple seasons makes for a worthy second round choice. Concerns about the offensive line need to be addressed.

24.  C. Ridley- Grew into a huge role last year. Likely becomes the 1A this year, even if Julio is back at full strength.

25.  C. Akers- The postseason has given a taste of what could be. Stafford’s addition helps. The small sample and RB volatility give me pause but Akers was dynamic to close the season.

26.  M. Sanders- Has first round ceiling. Workload a bit muddled given all the changes in Philadelphia.

27.  Kittle- Still an elite FF TE. Will Jimmy G. be back?

28.  Najee Harris- If he goes to Miami, Pittsburgh, or Atlanta, he’d move up. With Aaron Jones staying in Green Bay, that’s an extra starting RB gig that is open.

29.  A. Gibson- Feel like I’ve been too low on Gibson. He has a 3 down skill set and the surrounding competition doesn’t create any trepidation on my part.

30.  A. Cooper- Dak is back and the offense looks well positioned for a top 3 finish.

31.  J. Robinson- Lack of name value will push him down many lists next summer, he’s the real deal and will likely be a value in drafts. Will the voluminous workload continue? Hyde offers no real threat to playing time.

32.  J. Allen- Has made the leap few thought possible as a passer. Set up well for success. The #1 overall scorer in standard format. Rushing equity keeps floor very high.

33.  A. Theilen- Jefferson has emerged as the lead WR but Theilen still solid as WR #7 overall in standard formats.

34.  D. Swift- Three down talent but questions about the poor surrounding cast and workload. Most certainly a better dynasty than redraft option.

35.  Dobbins- Still will be very productive despite likely lead role in a committee. Edwards will return and play an important role, but Dobbins is still likely to lead this tandem.

36.  D Montgomery- Has combined a heavy workload and weak run defenses over the last several weeks to score as an RB1. More like an RB2 over the long term. Some folks will quibble with this spot, but the middle of round 3 feels right to me.

37.  T. Lockett- Might be 1B to Metcalf’s 1A but plenty productive.

38.  CEH- Underwhelming as a rookie. Looks to be in some form of timeshare for the foreseeable future. Need to replenish the offensive line.

39.  A. Robinson- Back in Chicago under the tag. QB next year?

40.  Mike Evans- 1,000 yards again and double digit TDs. Hard to argue against.

41.  McLaurin- Fitz coming to the WFT is a bump.

42.  D. Watson- Simply a great player. Hope he gets traded.

43.  T. Etienne- Miami, Atlanta, and Pittsburgh will likely each have an open RB spot. This ranking is based upon landing in one of those situations in either round 1 or 2 of the draft.

44.  R. Woods- Always produces rock solid numbers but lacks elite upside. Stafford will elevate his value.

45.  Claypool- Make no mistake, he had an exceptional rookie year and will be again highly viable, but perhaps a bit TD dependent. Steelers have three quality options.

46.  Godwin- I think the slightly down 2020 season sets up a nice value- based buy low, perhaps 85 cents or so on the dollar. Brady will be back and finger fully healed.

47.  K. Golladay- Goff is a downgrade to Golladay’s deep ball chops. FA market initially softer than expected.

48.  Hunt- The Browns are set up to feature multiple RBs and can allow both to produce.

49.  CD Lamb- Will be higher in dynasty. Has legit WR1 skills. Cooper leaves in 2022?

50.  L. Jackson- A relatively slow start has been offset by an outstanding closing act.

51.  R. Wilson- Second half was pedestrian. Will Seattle return to ground and pound? Coaching hires and departures suggest yes, which drops Wilson.

52.  D. Johnson- Huge target volume. With Roethlisberger back for one more year, short term bump up the ladder

53.  K. Murray- Still growing as a passer, but already elite as a point producer.

54.  K. Drake- Has not lived up to the summer hype but I still believe he will be better in 2021. Wondering if he comes back with Cardinals.

55.  C. Carson- Simply gets hurt too much to take higher. Money when he plays. Short term.

56.  M. Gordon- Reasonable spot for a back end RB 2.

57.  DJ Moore- Still a solid WR #2. QB in 2021? Moves up if Watson lands in Carolina

58.  R. Mostert- If health returns and large carry share re-emerges, could go higher.

59.  R. Jones- Tough for me to rank any higher but has been solid. No passing game role.

60.  W. Fuller- Was having a borderline WR1 campaign before PED test.

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Updated 3/26-  Reflects the changes through the first significant wave of FA. 

 

2021 Preliminary Rankings- Phase VII

1.      McCaffrey- Injuries aside, the per game scoring numbers remain off the charts. He’s the single best performer, regardless of format.

2.      Cook- Excellent, well rounded RB with monstrous workload on a team that prefers defaults towards a run first philosophy.

3.      Henry- Only a lack of involvement in the receiving game keeps him off the top spot. Could go #1 overall in standard formats. Likely, based on historical norms, primed for one or two more big years before steep drop.

4.      Zeke- For the turnstile at QB this year and patchwork line play, still produces consistently. Take advantage of the current scuttlebutt and terrible season by buying low. I know that I’m considerably higher on Zeke than consensus, but that will pay dividends in drafts next year. Dak returns and the line is likely to be both bolstered in terms of draft capital and more healthy. Zeke’s

5.      D. Adams- Has the consistent, high level production to perhaps go even higher in ppr formats. Unlikely to surpass last year’s astounding numbers but the clear WR1.

6.      A. Jones- Still love him in this offense. Optimally efficient. Now that his long-term place in GB is secure, no reason why he’s not an easy first round pick. May see more passing game volume with Williams’ move to the Motor City.

7.      J. Taylor- Has truly built momentum and looks to be a yardage king. Closed the season really well. Will perhaps be the 1.1 in dynasty startups this spring. The Rivers to Wentz transition does not change my valuation. Mack may siphon enough touches to prevent an ascendance to the top 3.

8.      T. Hill- The best weapon in football plays on the best team with the best QB.

9.      T. Kelce- Was too low first time around. Still the best TE set up with the best QB. The VBD number continues to be staggering. Have seen him as high as #1 overall in early 2021 rankings.

10.  Kamara- While still a stud, has to be moved back from original rankings with Brees’s retirement. If Hill is the starting QB next year, some concern is merited. With the unknown status of the Saint’s QB situation, I’m dropping him back a few slots. He remains in my top 10 but well below consensus.

11.  DK Metcalf- Tailed off at the end of the year but still poised for future success

12.  Barkley- Injury rehab will tell the story. Back to back injury plagued seasons. Could move up to as high as #7 for me if process falls into place by camp. Could also move well down into the teens. This current spot is simply a placeholder.

13.  D. Hopkins- Has rounded into form more quickly than anticipated. Outlier- as he changed teams, traditionally a red flag, but remained elite.

14.  Mixon- I know that I’m well above consensus but want to ensure I’m heavily invested in Mixon next year. He will be a huge value and an excellent buy low.

15.  N. Chubb- Still a beast. Hunt limits upside but high floor remains in a run first offense.

16.  A. Ekeler- A truly dynamic playmaker that should help Herbert’s ascension.

17.  J. Jefferson- Has really exploded over the second half of the year with more room for growth. A first round pick in start up, ppr dynasty formats, but slightly lower in standard. I think he’s really, really good but has been just a tad overrated thus far.

18.  S. Diggs- Has combined outstanding production with heavy volume to truly enter elite territory.

19.  AJ Brown- Will be a full- fledged superstar if he plays 16 games. Davis’ move to the NYJ portends more targets.

20.  Thomas- Going from Brees to Hill/Winston is a clear downgrade. Still a back end WR1.

21.  K. Allen- Targets with Herbert are insane. Risk averse folks may move him into first round as he has a very safe floor moving forward with Herbert.

22.  Mahomes- The best actual QB is also the best fantasy QB- plenty of surrounding talent leads to consistent play and production. The VBD value over multiple seasons makes for a worthy second round choice. Concerns about the offensive line need to be addressed.

23.  C. Ridley- Grew into a huge role last year. Likely becomes the 1A this year, even if Julio is back at full strength.

24.  C. Akers- The postseason has given a taste of what could be. Stafford’s addition helps. The small sample and RB volatility give me pause but Akers was dynamic to close the season.

25.  M. Sanders- Has first round ceiling. Workload a bit muddled given all the changes in Philadelphia.

26.  Kittle- Still an elite FF TE. Will Jimmy G. be back?

27.  Najee Harris- If he goes to Miami, Pittsburgh, or Atlanta, he’d move up. With Aaron Jones staying in Green Bay, that’s an extra starting RB gig that is open.

28.  A. Gibson- Feel like I’ve been too low on Gibson. He has a 3 down skill set and the surrounding competition doesn’t create any trepidation on my part.

29.  A. Cooper- Dak is back and the offense looks well positioned for a top 3 finish.

30.  J. Robinson- Lack of name value will push him down many lists next summer, he’s the real deal and will likely be a value in drafts. Will the voluminous workload continue? Hyde offers no real threat to playing time.

31.  J. Allen- Has made the leap few thought possible as a passer. Set up well for success. The #1 overall scorer in standard format. Rushing equity keeps floor very high.

32.  A. Theilen- Jefferson has emerged as the lead WR but Theilen still solid as WR #7 overall in standard formats.

33.  D. Swift- Three down talent but questions about the poor surrounding cast and workload. Most certainly a better dynasty than redraft option. Williams will eat into passing game role and poach more than an insignificant number of carries.

34.  Dobbins- Still will be very productive despite likely lead role in a committee. Edwards will return and play an important role, but Dobbins is still likely to lead this tandem.

35.  D Montgomery- Has combined a heavy workload and weak run defenses over the last several weeks to score as an RB1. More like an RB2 over the long term. Some folks will quibble with this spot, but the middle of round 3 feels right to me. Cohen returns to passing game role. D. Williams will also vulture touches, too.

36.  T. Lockett- Might be 1B to Metcalf’s 1A but plenty productive. The philosophical shift away from heavy pass volume back to a more run based approach is cause for concern as Metcalf is the alpha.

37.  McLaurin- Fitz coming to the WFT is a bump.

38.  CEH- Underwhelming as a rookie. Looks to be in some form of timeshare for the foreseeable future. Need to replenish the offensive line.

39.  Jacobs- The Drake signing moves him down from #17 to #39. No longer a backend RB1, more like a backend RB2.

40.  A. Robinson- Deserves the chance to play with elite level QB but a great WR2, even with the Red Rifle under center.

41.  Mike Evans- 1,000 yards again and double-digit TDs. Hard to argue against. Will likely never ascend to the career arc we all hoped for, but nonetheless as solid as they come as a WR2.

42.  T. Etienne- Miami, Atlanta, and Pittsburgh will likely each have an open RB spot. This ranking is based upon landing in one of those situations in either round 1 or 2 of the draft.

43.  M. Gordon- Projected workload, buoyed by Lindsay’s departure, and the likely improvement of the Denver defense, makes Gordon a sneaky upside play.

44.  D. Waller- Target hog and elite athlete with great connection to Carr.

45.  R. Woods- Always produces rock solid numbers but lacks elite upside. Stafford will elevate his value.

46.  Claypool- Make no mistake, he had an exceptional rookie year and will be again highly viable, but perhaps a bit TD dependent. Steelers have three quality options.

47.  Godwin- I think the slightly down 2020 season sets up a nice value- based buy low, perhaps 85 cents or so on the dollar. Brady will be back and finger fully healed.

48.  K. Golladay- Signing with the NYG is a net neutral from re-upping with the Lions. We know Golladay can produce, the better question is: Can Jones grow into a legitimate fantasy QB or is he waiver wire fodder?

49.  Hunt- The Browns are set up to feature multiple RBs and can allow both to produce.

50.  CD Lamb- Will be higher in dynasty. Has legit WR1 skills. Cooper leaves in 2022?

51.  L. Jackson- A relatively slow start has been offset by an outstanding closing act.

52.  R. Wilson- Second half was pedestrian. Will Seattle return to ground and pound? Coaching hires and departures suggest yes, which drops Wilson.

53.  D. Johnson- Huge target volume. With Roethlisberger back for one more year, short term bump up the ladder

54.  K. Murray- Still growing as a passer, but already elite as a point producer.

55.  C. Carson- Simply gets hurt too much to take higher. Money when he plays. Short term.

56.  DJ Moore- Still a solid WR #2. QB in 2021? Moves up if Watson lands in Carolina

57.  R. Mostert- If health returns and large carry share re-emerges, could go higher.

58.  R. Jones- Tough for me to rank any higher but has been solid. No passing game role.

59.  W. Fuller- Was having a borderline WR1 campaign before PED test.

60.  C. Edmonds- With Drake’s departure and RB thirst, Edmonds becomes tantalizing option.

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Like your list, but too high on Ekeler, Zeke and Mixon.  Probably too high on Montgomery Gordon, Jacobs, Theilen and Lockett.  Too low on J Jefferson, AJ Brown and K Murray.

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On 3/26/2021 at 8:57 PM, JohnnyU said:

Like your list, but too high on Ekeler, Zeke and Mixon.  Probably too high on Montgomery Gordon, Jacobs, Theilen and Lockett.  Too low on J Jefferson, AJ Brown and K Murray.

Where would you rank them? Genuinely curious. Thanks.

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13 minutes ago, Ack88 said:

Where would you rank them? Genuinely curious. Thanks.

Not that I want to go through that kind of exercise, I don't have the time.  It's just that from a quick look I believe those players I see whether they are too high or too low.

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On 3/26/2021 at 8:57 PM, JohnnyU said:

Like your list, but too high on Ekeler, Zeke and Mixon.  Probably too high on Montgomery Gordon, Jacobs, Theilen and Lockett.  Too low on J Jefferson, AJ Brown and K Murray.

How much further down would you move Zeke and Mixon? Would you take Jefferson and Brown above them?

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On 2/6/2021 at 2:59 PM, Biabreakable said:

Good stuff Ack88. I dont have too much to add that hasn't been mentioned already. I would take Waller ahead of Lockett. So I think he should slot in around the 30s otherwise its just small things like preferring Swift over Akers and so on.

How much impact do you place on Campbell's hiring and the Jamaal Williams signing for Swift's value? I'm considering moving Swift down because the other components of the Lions organization- trading for Goff, having the league's worst WR corps, and a team that looks to win 5 games as a drain. Also, Campbell didn't draft Swift so there's not the same level of investment.

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3 hours ago, Ack88 said:

How much impact do you place on Campbell's hiring and the Jamaal Williams signing for Swift's value? I'm considering moving Swift down because the other components of the Lions organization- trading for Goff, having the league's worst WR corps, and a team that looks to win 5 games as a drain. Also, Campbell didn't draft Swift so there's not the same level of investment.

Well on that front Swift is in line for a lot more opportunity dont you think?

Former Head  Coach of the Chargers Anthony Lynn is their offensive coordinator. The last 4 seasons RB with the Chargers have averaged 140 targets. Mostly Melvin Gordon and Austin Eckeler on the receiving end of those. Without Gordon last year and Eckeler missing 6 games they still threw 74 times to other RB including total duds like Kalen Ballage 27 times.

I think Swift is likely to get a lot more targets in the passing game with the Lions this year.

Jamal Williams is a solid but unspectacular RB. Not much of a threat to Swifts opportunities in my view although I bet he does see 100 touches or so over the course of the year.

Edited by Biabreakable
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22 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

Well on that front Swift is in line for a lot more opportunity dont you think?

Former Head  Coach of the Chargers Anthony Lynn is their offensive coordinator. The last 4 seasons RB with the Chargers have averaged 140 targets. Mostly Melvin Gordon and Austin Eckeler on the receiving end of those. Without Gordon last year and Eckeler missing 6 games they still threw 74 times to other RB including total duds like Kalen Ballage 27 times.

I think Swift is likely to get a lot more targets in the passing game with the Lions this year.

Jamal Williams is a solid but unspectacular RB. Not much of a threat to Swifts opportunities in my view although I bet he does see 100 touches or so over the course of the year.

Thank for responding. I would like to think he is in line for more opportunities, but Williams does catch the ball well. I worry about the Lions playing primarily in negative game scripts- consistently behind and needing to throw disproportionately- but Swift can take a chunk of that role. The issue remains Williams and how many targets/touches he will ultimately siphon. 

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On 4/12/2021 at 12:21 PM, Ack88 said:

How much impact do you place on Campbell's hiring and the Jamaal Williams signing for Swift's value? I'm considering moving Swift down because the other components of the Lions organization- trading for Goff, having the league's worst WR corps, and a team that looks to win 5 games as a drain. Also, Campbell didn't draft Swift so there's not the same level of investment.

Is it just me, or does anyone else feel Jamal Williams is just another guy?

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4 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

Is it just me, or does anyone else feel Jamal Williams is just another guy?

I feel the same and think he’s being overrated. A few years ago, he had the starting gig in his grip in a great GB offense before Aaron Jones overtook him. Granted, Jones is a supreme talent, but Williams seemed to be JAG then and I’m not sure what has changed.

I think he’ll see some meaningful snaps though because he’s still a good football player and valuable.

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14 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

Is it just me, or does anyone else feel Jamal Williams is just another guy?

Yes. He’s a solid but limited RB. He’ll be mixed in I’m sure but Swift isn’t the type of back that was going to get workhorse level snaps anyway. 

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