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"Buy low, and sell high."

It is one of the core principles of building your dynasty franchise.  The critical element is the ‘buy low’ part, and that requires some risk analysis.  Anytime you are buying low, you must consider that there is a reason compelling the other owner to sell his investment at a loss.  The key is not buying when the player is doing well, it's buying when the player is struggling or injured, but is positioned to do well in the future.  This is the time of the year to seize that opportunity.  A dynasty owner who is not getting the expected return on his investment may sell low to bolster his team for a playoff run.  A dynasty owner in win-now mode is your target, but make the offer both tempting and realistic.  Don't burn your bridge with an insulting offer.

Last week, I suggested buying low in dynasty on Jonathan Taylor.  I worked a deal to acquire Taylor, but it was not for pennies on the dollar.  Those types of deals rarely exist, and even if you do make them, other owners will be leery of making trades with you in the future.  I moved James Robinson for Taylor.  You may be wondering why I would give up on Robinson.  I like Robinson.  He has been incredibly reliable and consistent, and I believe he is very talented.  However, I view him as a classic "sell-high" player.  The Jaguars are a team in flux.  Even so, I believe Robinson fits into their future plans, but I do not think he is a franchise-type RB.  Taylor, on the other hand, I believe can be.  If I have made the wrong gamble, I can live with it.  My analysis was sound based on my evaluation of both players.  It is a bit like playing the stock market: not all of your investments will hit and payout.  You digest information and try to make sound evaluations based on the best information available to you.  In the end, this is your team, so make decisions based on your assessments and evaluations.

This week, as we approach the fantasy playoffs, I will examine a few more players who I think are good dynasty buy-low investments.

Joe Burrow:  He suffered a devastating knee injury, and it is unclear how long it will take to recover.  Burrow may well miss the first part of next season.  By all early reports, however, he is expected to make a full recovery,  We have seen how effective Burrow can be, and I like the direction the Cincinnati offense is going.  Burrow has franchise QB written all over him, and you may be able to acquire him at a substantial discount.

Dak Prescott:  Speaking of injured QBs, Dak has languished on some poor sap's roster in your league, and if that owner somehow still managed to put himself in a position to advance to the playoffs, he may take this opportunity to bail on Dak and the struggling Dallas Cowboys.  There is no guarantee that Dak will return to the Cowboys in 2021.  I was excited to see what Dak would achieve this season with a myriad of exciting weapons.  I would be just as excited in 2021.  If Dak exits Dallas, I might be a little less excited, but my suspicion is he stays.  Jerry isn't likely to allow a top ten QB to walk.

Saquon Barkley:  It may be difficult to acquire Barkley at much of a discount in most leagues, but it is worth a try.  Barkley should return to top form, but this was his second straight injury-shortened season. Barkley played 13 games and just barely topped 1,000 yards rushing last year as he dealt with a high ankle sprain.  We have seen Gurley as an example of a player who never returned to form after injury, so there are certainly no guarantees with Barkley.  However, if you are able to work a deal to add Barkley to your team, I trust he will come back strong next season.

Joe Mixon:  Mixon owners are understandably frustrated, and now, with Burrow out, Mixon's hopeful eventual return after a stint on IR is even less appetizing.  Nonetheless, Mixon's 2021 prospects remain high.  The Bengals' offense is ascending, and Mixon should be a real beneficiary.  This is the time to make a strong bid to acquire Mixon for 2021.

Ezekiel Elliott:  The talk out of Dallas, especially after a Thanksgiving day dud, is Zeke is done as an elite RB.  He has certainly struggled.  The O-line has not done Zeke many favors, and the team has definitely missed Dak, but much of this falls squarely on Elliott.  He has gutted it out through a hamstring injury, and perhaps that is a factor.  Still, Elliott is young and playing for what could potentially be one of the elite offenses in the league.  I am buying Elliott where I can, and he should come at a substantial discount.

Courtland Sutton:  The Broncos are in desperate need of top-tier talent at QB, but I love the potential of a Sutton-Jeudy duo in the mile-high city.  Jeudy has not really broken out yet, and he would be another dynasty target to pursue, but Sutton is a definite buy-low target as he recovers from a torn ACL.  Jeudy has elite route running skills, hands and vision, but Sutton's size, physicality, leaping ability, body control and catch radius makes him a nightmare matchup for opposing corners.  If you can pry away Sutton at a discount, you could get a wideout who is ready to blossom - assuming Elway and the the Broncos can get some quality QB play.

Henry Ruggs:  Nelson Agholor is the top wideout for the Raiders, but I believe he is just keeping the dynasty seat warm for an eventual Ruggs breakout.  Carr has made a nice comeback after some talk that he may lose his starting gig, and the Raiders look like an ascending offense.  Ruggs has Tyreek Hill-like speed and quickness.  That speed has not translated to NFL success so far, and dynasty owners in win-now mode might be ready to give Ruggs up at a discount.  I would be careful not to overpay, but I believe some dynasty owners might be willing to sell pretty low.

Marquise Brown:  Brown seems to be an afterthought in a struggling Ravens' passing game, and I am not completely sold on Lamar Jackson as an elite passing talent.  However, Jackson does have the ability to get the ball downfield.  Dez and Snead are merely placeholders in this offense.  I like Brown to eventually emerge, and this is your opportunity to grab him at a nice discount.

Darnell Mooney:  The Chicago offense has struggled this season, and I'm not sure it will improve considerably in 2021, but if it does, I like Mooney as a player who can emerge in the shadows of Robinson.  Mooney may be sitting on some waiver wires, and even where he is owned, you may be able to get him as a mere throw-in player in a deal.

George Kittle:  Kittle owners know what they have in Kittle, so you are unlikely to get him at much of a discount in dynasty, but if you have TE depth and can offer another top TE to the Kittle owner, perhaps you can improve at the position for 2021.  I am thinking it would take an offer such as Mark Andrews and a fringe player for Kittle, but once Kittle returns, that deal will payoff for you.

Good luck!

Remember these foundational principles of building your dynasty franchise:

Diversify.  Balance risk and reward,  Have plenty of high-upside, high-ceiling players, but balance that with some reliable, consistent high-floor players.

If a trade offer sounds too good to be true, it might be, but be ready to smash that accept button!

Buy low, and sell high.

Work the waiver wire all season, but save some FAAB for the stretch run.  If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.

Don't be afraid to take risks.  Too many dynasty owners see their team languish due to roster paralysis.  Don't give up on a player too soon, but don't hang on unnecessarily, either.  If this week's waiver wire add does not pan out, cut your losses and move onto the next prospect.  Try to stay ahead of the bidding wars.  Monitor waiver wire players and injuries for potential breakouts, and add them a week early.

Waste no roster spots.  I see owners carrying three kickers and two defenses.  Use those roster spots for potential emerging players.  There is nothing worse than watching a player all season, then losing out on the waiver wire because you waited too long to pick him up.

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I think this is a good list of buys.

Quote

The Bengals' offense is ascending, and Mixon should be a real beneficiary.  This is the time to make a strong bid to acquire Mixon for 2021.

This is something I heard during the offseason and it makes a lot of sense. However despite Burrow averaging 40 pass attempts per game Mixon only averaged 4 targets per game. So that did not materialize. Why would it in 2021 with Burrow perhaps not being cleared to play until mid season?

I have heard the talk about Elliot being done. While its possible I am not buying it. I talked about this in the Elliot thread. I think Elliot has two more prime seasons left in him and then maybe another year or two of him being a RB 2 for fantasy following that.

Quote

Henry Ruggs:  Nelson Agholor is the top wideout for the Raiders, but I believe he is just keeping the dynasty seat warm for an eventual Ruggs breakout.  Carr has made a nice comeback after some talk that he may lose his starting gig, and the Raiders look like an ascending offense.  Ruggs has Tyreek Hill-like speed and quickness.  That speed has not translated to NFL success so far, and dynasty owners in win-now mode might be ready to give Ruggs up at a discount.  I would be careful not to overpay, but I believe some dynasty owners might be willing to sell pretty low.

I have been confused about this. Ruggs is supposed to be playing the Z WR position which in the WCO is usually the primary WR. Agholor as far as I can tell is playing the X position where Bryan Edwards started the season. If you look at the snap counts, the increase in playing time for Agholor coincides with Edwards being out of the line up.

I am very open to being corrected on this, because I haven't seen the Raiders play enough to be sure, but what I am thinking is happening is that Waller is actually the Z WR, Agholor is the X and Ruggs is splitting with Renfrow in the slot/flanker role.

If my assessment here is correct it means that Ruggs isn't competing with Agholor for playing time. Edwards is the WR who lost his job to Agholor. Ruggs opportunity is limited because Waller is their best receiver.

I don't believe in Hollywood Brown. I think he is a sell rather than a buy.

I am curious to read the sell side of this. Good topic starting post!

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6 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

I don't believe in Hollywood Brown. I think he is a sell rather than a buy.

100% this.  Guy reminds me of a long list of track stars who didn't make it as wrs.  The bal offense is better set up for a Sneed-like underneath chain mover who can run a scramble drill and get lucky tds a few times a season.

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Love the Zeke call. I think now is the chance to strike and agree he has two prime years left easily. 

Mixon is another good one but I'm less sure this is the true low. Sooner or later he is going to need to deliver on expectations. Seems like he is the stock perpetually being traded based on future earnings. 

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19 minutes ago, tombonneau said:

Imo the time to buy Dak, Zeke and Sutton was after they got hurt. Few owners will deal at a discount after absorbing the sunk cost of a lost season. 

I agree that the ideal time to make a move for those players (and I am guessing you meant Barkley rather than Zeke), was shortly after their injuries; however, if a team is fighting for a playoff spot or has secured a playoff spot, they may consider an offer that helps them toward a championship.  Of course, you also must consider your own playoff and championship prospects!

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6 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

I don't believe in Hollywood Brown. I think he is a sell rather than a buy.

 

34 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

100% this.  Guy reminds me of a long list of track stars who didn't make it as wrs.  The bal offense is better set up for a Sneed-like underneath chain mover who can run a scramble drill and get lucky tds a few times a season.

You may be correct regarding Brown; however, his stock has hit rock bottom. I would not sell, unless I was contemplating releasing him outright and merely wanted to recoup any portion of my investment I could salvage at this point.  I still believe it is too early to write off. Brown.  Lamar and the Ravens are not passing downfield effectively.  Perhaps RG3 can reverse that trend this week.  Marquise Brown is being written off by most fantasy players, and that is precisely why he is a buy, rather than a sell.  If I can get him for pennies on the dollar, I will take that risk.  There is generally risk when you are buying low.  The other owner would not be selling low if there was not some compelling reason.

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7 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

I have been confused about this. Ruggs is supposed to be playing the Z WR position which in the WCO is usually the primary WR. Agholor as far as I can tell is playing the X position where Bryan Edwards started the season. If you look at the snap counts, the increase in playing time for Agholor coincides with Edwards being out of the line up.

I am very open to being corrected on this, because I haven't seen the Raiders play enough to be sure, but what I am thinking is happening is that Waller is actually the Z WR, Agholor is the X and Ruggs is splitting with Renfrow in the slot/flanker role.

If my assessment here is correct it means that Ruggs isn't competing with Agholor for playing time. Edwards is the WR who lost his job to Agholor. Ruggs opportunity is limited because Waller is their best receiver.

I need to look more into this.  Interesting take.  From what I have seen of the Raiders, it appears they are misusing Ruggs.  He was able to turn short crossing routes and end arounds into long gains and scores in college, but it appears the Raiders are using him mostly on go routes, and mostly as a decoy.  The running game is clicking for the Raiders, so they have not needed much from Ruggs, but I believe his time is coming.  He needs to earn Carr's trust, but Ruggs has game breaking ability, and that is going to be realized eventually. 

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I'll throw the name Deebo Samuel out there.  Every game he's played the majority of the snaps he's been heavily involved in the gameplan, getting designed runs and screens.  He's a YAC master, which is very important in the sf offense.

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6 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

I think Jarvis Landry will be cut, and end up in a better situation next season.

I don’t think Zach Ertz is done.

I’m still a believer in Noah Fant.

Josh Reynolds is a UFA and could be a solid #2 for a team.

Diontae Johnson’s ADP is still way too low. 

With Obj most likely gone I don't see them moving on from Landry.

I don't know if anyone is down on ertz (injury) or Fant (qb)

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11 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

I'll throw the name Deebo Samuel out there.  Every game he's played the majority of the snaps he's been heavily involved in the gameplan, getting designed runs and screens.  He's a YAC master, which is very important in the sf offense.

Absolutely.  I forgot about him, but I agree

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8 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

With Obj most likely gone I don't see them moving on from Landry.

I don't know if anyone is down on ertz (injury) or Fant (qb)

He doesn’t really fit the offense. They can replace him for less than they’d save by cutting him. If they’re smart they’ll move on, IMO.

Ertz’s November DLF ADP puts him in the 10th round of 12 team startups. I love that value.

The Fant owners in my league haven’t budged, so you might be right. But I like him more than his ADP. 

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Not sure how cheap he is any more, but Mims looks pretty enticing with the possibility of Lawrence or Fields throwing to him next year. Unless of course they bring in another alpha dog WR.

Edited by zamboni
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1 minute ago, Concept Coop said:

He doesn’t really fit the offense. They can replace him for less than they’d save by cutting him. If they’re smart they’ll move on, IMO.

Ertz’s November DLF ADP puts him in the 10th round of 12 team startups. I love that value.

The Fant owners in my league haven’t budged, so you might be right. But I like him more than his ADP. 

Ertz is certainly a value where he is being ranked.  He is 30, and his absences have been piling up, but I agree he is still a dynasty buy.

I am hopeful the Broncos can improve at QB this offseason, and that would be a plus for Fant.  Dynasty owners are mostly not looking to move Fant right now, however.

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5 minutes ago, zamboni said:

Not sure how cheap he is any more, but Mims looks pretty enticing with the possibility of Lawrence or Fields throwing to him next year. Unless of course they bring in another alpha dog WR.

This is my concern.  Mims looks good, but he is not a WR1, imo.  Plus, this is still the Jets we are talking about. Unless and until the Jets get some decent leadership that can change the culture there, I am hesitant to trust them to develop any player!

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3 minutes ago, tombonneau said:

Yeah I own him and was tempted to go after him in my other dynasty. I'm not sure it's a pure buy low, but it's not a buy high like he was in 2020 offseason when I purchase. ;)

He is way cheaper than he was at any time in the past couple of years.  Another big game and his price will explode again, especially since it will show that he will still be good even without Brees.

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1 minute ago, Tornacl said:

He is way cheaper than he was at any time in the past couple of years.  Another big game and his price will explode again, especially since it will show that he will still be good even without Brees.

What does that mean though? Multiple firsts still? A high first? A couple lower firsts? 

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A few others:

*Paris Campbell...injuries have turned him into a forgotten man but he could be a nice end of bench stash because there does seem to be talent there

*DJ Chark...kind of a lost year between the QB situation and the overall debacle that is the Jags but a new QB and Coach could breath some life into both Chark and the franchise in general

*Darnell Mooney...mentioned at the top but this kid looks like he has some talent and could probably be had for little

*Allen Robinson...still only 27 and a prime landing spot in free agency could take him to another level

Edited by Boston
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2 minutes ago, Tornacl said:

He is way cheaper than he was at any time in the past couple of years.  Another big game and his price will explode again, especially since it will show that he will still be good even without Brees.

I bought Thomas but paid market price I think; gave Burrow, Chark & Sutton for Thomas & a 2nd in a 1 QB league. Team I traded with is rebuilding and has poor QBs, I'm trying to make a run and have some depth at WR.

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4 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

What does that mean though? Multiple firsts still? A high first? A couple lower firsts? 

At the end of October, I got him for Goedert and Sutton in a 12 team PPR dynasty.

I didn't mean to imply that he was cheap, just that it's all relative.  If he goes back to the WR he has been, whatever price will likely have been worth it.

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12 minutes ago, Tornacl said:

At the end of October, I got him for Goedert and Sutton in a 12 team PPR dynasty.

I didn't mean to imply that he was cheap, just that it's all relative.  If he goes back to the WR he has been, whatever price will likely have been worth it.

I know, and that seems like two later 1sts that you paid. Makes sense I think.

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1 hour ago, Boston said:

A few others:

*Paris Campbell...injuries have turned him into a forgotten man but he could be a nice end of bench stash because there does seem to be talent there

*DJ Chark...kind of a lost year between the QB situation and the overall debacle that is the Jags but a new QB and Coach could breath some life into both Chark and the franchise in general

*Darnell Mooney...mentioned at the top but this kid looks like he has some talent and could probably be had for little

*Allen Robinson...still only 27 and a prime landing spot in free agency could take him to another level

I agree with all 4. I considered adding Parris Campbell to my initial list.  He should come at a big discount. Both Chark and Shanault in Jax are intriguing.  

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Oj howard?

One more die roll for this kid he could be a tight end one next year.  

Good call, grateful zed.  It seemed Howard was just ready to blossom when he suffered a season-ending injury. 

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4 minutes ago, scothawk said:

Who are the qb buys for next year ?

I mentioned a couple above (Joe Burrow and Dak Prescott).  I would add Sam Darnold and Carson Wentz :bag: to that list.

Sam Darnold will likely find himself on a new team in 2021, with hopefully a better assembly of weapons and coaching, and hopefully that revives his career.  Some of Darnold's struggles can be blamed on the ineptitude of the Jets' offense, but Darnold has no doubt taken a step back this season.  Even so, he is still highly regarded around the league, so he should garner plenty of attention if he becomes available.

Carson Wentz is really struggling, and there are many calling for the Eagles to turn to Jalen Hurts, but I am still hopeful that Wentz can right this ship.  It is rather worrisome, however, that the Eagles have had to 'dumb down' the offense for Wentz.  The entire offense has suffered without a number of their top weapons for significant parts of this season, but Webtz's confidence is waning alongside his performance.  Wentz should be available at a deep discount in many dynasty leagues, so if you are the gambling sort, you may want to roll the dice on him.  If, on the other hand, you don't believe Wentz can regain his form and confidence, you might want to look at Jalen Hurts.

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Darnold will be interesting for sure.

I'm a Burrow buyer where opportunity permits.

Dak...... Uncertain team future and bad injury. Cowboys regressing and might have some cap issues. Passing on him. 

Wentz looks awful. Would be pennies in the dollar for me.

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31 minutes ago, bmsarvis said:

Godwin is a great buy low

You sure that anyone is selling him low? I have him, and I'm not. The dynasty calcs have him probably at 5/6 of what he was before, so I don't think there's a major drop off here.

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I would sell him cheaper than I would have in the off-season for sure. Winston to Brady has been a clear downgrade for his ff value imo. Brady’s (at times ) downfield accuracy and Godwin’s injuries are definitely a big part of it but so is Brady’s propensity to spread the ball around and take the “smartest” play. Where Winston always went idgaf and launched it. Him and Thomas will be my most tartgeted high profile WRs this off-season 

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Just now, bmsarvis said:

I would sell him cheaper than I would have in the off-season for sure. Winston to Brady has been a clear downgrade for his ff value imo. Brady’s (at times ) downfield accuracy and Godwin’s injuries are definitely a big part of it but so is Brady’s propensity to spread the ball around and take the “smartest” play. Where Winston always went idgaf and launched it. Him and Thomas will be my most tartgeted high profile WRs this off-season 

Is Godwin playing with Brady next season?

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4 minutes ago, bmsarvis said:

I assume Brady will be back and I have very little doubt about it. If he isn’t back wherever they draft or whoever they sign is very unlikely to boost Godwin’s value imo. 

Godwin is the UFA, not Brady. Sorry about the pronoun confusion.

eta* Right now, he's on a contract where he makes about $825,000 a year. He's going to get a heck of a pay raise somewhere. Consider that a guy like Cooper Kupp pulls down $15.75 million yearly and you're looking at a contract at least fifteen times the size of his current one.

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5 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Godwin is the UFA, not Brady. Sorry about the pronoun confusion.

Tampa may have a decision to make in March - Godwin or AB. I think the answer is an easy one but this will be a team with a 44 year old qb, a 68 year old head coach, and a GM that was on thin ice before the latter arrived there will be immense pressure to win in 2021. Logically, Godwin should be the priority. But will a group of decision makers that potentially have tunnel vision for one particular year prioritize their expiring veterans (AB, Gronk, Suh, L David, Shaq, etc.) instead? 

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I'm only going on guys I follow. I think Corey Davis is a buy low.

If he hadn't missed time due to COVID he'd be an easy overall WR3, even with Brown there. He's certainly averaging enough to be a mid-range WR3, even with a Week Nine goose egg thrown in. He can probably be had for very little. He's only twenty-five and is a UFA, meaning he'll be going to a team that values him in some way (check the contract price to make sure it's not cut rate and the league hasn't devalued him) -- and he certainly looks the part of a starting receiver who also does little things to help keep himself on the field (meaning: blocking, etc.). I acquired him for very little (I made a Corey Davis/Preston Williams for N'Keal Harry deal) and have been pleased with the comparative results of all the guys involved from my end.

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7 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

Tampa may have a decision to make in March - Godwin or AB. I think the answer is an easy one but this will be a team with a 44 year old qb, a 68 year old head coach, and a GM that was on thin ice before the latter arrived there will be immense pressure to win in 2021. Logically, Godwin should be the priority. But will a group of decision makers that potentially have tunnel vision for one particular year prioritize their expiring veterans (AB, Gronk, Suh, L David, Shaq, etc.) instead? 

Yeah, I think Arians, who has spoken glowingly of him throughout the past two years, might go to bat for Godwin, but Godwin's going to have to moderate his price and take a discount. Otherwise, he's off to somewhere else. And who knows what the Arians influence is in the organization. How much pull does he have?

We know Brady is there through next year. Is Brady and the thought of continuity leading to a Super Bowl enough to stay on Godwin's end, one might ask?

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2 hours ago, Hoh said:

Jax WR Collin Johnson worth a stash?

I love filling the back end of my roster with potential diamonds in the rough.  I think Collin Johnson falls into that category.  The price is right, since he is likely sitting on most waiver wires.  However, I am not especially excited about the Jags QB situation, and they already have both D.J. Chark and Leviska Shenault, but Collin Johnson is a player to keep an eye on.  He has the size and physicality to win on contested balls, and he has good athleticism for his size.  If you have a very deep bench, Johnson could be worth a stash, but he remains a watch for me.  There are a number of players I have on my watch list that I would prefer to add to the end of my roster at this point.

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Also targeting Hockenson, looks terrific in his 2nd season, they just don't use him often for whatever reason. With a new coach hopefully they'll get him more involved as I view him as elite with #1 TE potential in a position that's difficult to secure a surefire stud. 

Also like Fant. 

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2 minutes ago, foxco said:

Also targeting Hockenson, looks terrific in his 2nd season, they just don't use him often for whatever reason. With a new coach hopefully they'll get him more involved as I view him as elite with #1 TE potential in a position that's difficult to secure a surefire stud. 

Also like Fant. 

I don't see how Hockenson would be attainable at this point, but would love to have him.

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3 minutes ago, socrates said:

I love filling the back end of my roster with potential diamonds in the rough.  I think Collin Johnson falls into that category.  The price is right, since he is likely sitting on most waiver wires.  However, I am not especially excited about the Jags QB situation, and they already have both D.J. Chark and Leviska Shenault, but Collin Johnson is a player to keep an eye on.  He has the size and physicality to win on contested balls, and he has good athleticism for his size.  If you have a very deep bench, Johnson could be worth a stash, but he remains a watch for me.  There are a number of players I have on my watch list that I would prefer to add to the end of my roster at this point.

Cole, Conley, and Dede are UFA's at season's end and they're on a path to fix their QB problem in April. The path is clear for him to WR3 in 21, Chark is a UFA at that season's end, and Shenault is not exactly a traditional WR. The WR3 in Jacksonville could play 75+% of snaps on the perimeter with high variance EV+ targets.

Not every dyno league has a deep enough bench to stash these types, but based on what I saw yesterday I think his time on waivers is about to end. Add now, see how Dec goes, then between that and what they do this offseason decide what to do with him early May.

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