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Biggest Fears of a Biden Presidency


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1 hour ago, whoknew said:

 

I think its a terrible idea. It doesn't make sense. I don't know if this is a distraction to this thread but - 

If you want to help people who are hurting - then help them. But don't blankelty help college grads. In general, college grads are more well off than non-college grads. Its just a very strange group to have blanket assistance for.

Student loan forgiveness doesn't make much sense economically or ethically, but it makes a ton of sense if you think of the Democrats becoming the party of the white collar professional class and the GOP becoming the party of the working class (especially working class whites, of course).  Handing out a windfall to one of your key constituencies is the sort of thing that political parties do routinely.  This particular realignment seems to have quite a bit of momentum behind it, and some of the policy priorities floating around there -- like this one -- are easy to understand if you think of it as just an exercise in coalition-building.   

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Even though I am not a Trump "guy" I do have concerns. 1) The student loan forgiveness.   I just don't see that being a good idea.  I also think it will create quite a problem for those who have

LOL Let's have a serious conversation about concerns people have about Biden as POTUS. "Why, here's a great chance to remind everyone I think Donald Trump is awful.  There aren't enough thre

There were tons of ridiculous Hunter Biden stories in the social media sphere last summer. Should news outlets cover them all, even though they couldn’t verify any of the facts?  We are witnessin

36 minutes ago, JAA said:

I dont disagree with the concept, but its not solving a problem, its passing the buck.  The problem which needs solving is the broken higher education system.  If we simply forgive loans it will empower future enrollees to think they will also get a free ride.  It will also incentivize universities to keep tuition high as Uncle Sam will end up footing the bill.

John Stossel did a great story on this issue

https://youtu.be/-uYERZX0aJM
 

 

 

 

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31 minutes ago, tommyGunZ said:
42 minutes ago, JAA said:

There have been some manufactures in the US who have had to shut down.  This is an area I would love to see boom again.  This is also an area where I think tariffs on importing could go a long way.

Isn’t this a feature of the market?  Firms that are unable to compete will go out of business in any industry.  To the extent that we use the Federal Govt to tip the scales, it seems most wise to encourage car manufacturers that design/produce the cars of the future, as opposed to enacting tariffs to keep dirty car manufacturers on life support for a few years longer. 

I don't want to turn this into a "bring manufacturing jobs back to US", but I would rather have a slightly more expensive product made in the US than a slightly cheaper imported product.

I also don't want to turn this into a capitalism thread, but world capitalism doesn't serve the US economy as the US cannot compete with slave-type wages in foreign countries.

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29 minutes ago, Capella said:
43 minutes ago, JAA said:

I dont disagree with the concept, but its not solving a problem, its passing the buck.  The problem which needs solving is the broken higher education system.  If we simply forgive loans it will empower future enrollees to think they will also get a free ride.  It will also incentivize universities to keep tuition high as Uncle Sam will end up footing the bill.

The government should be footing the bill for higher education and trade schools. Incentivize people to go learn a trade or get an education, don’t saddle them with life crippling debt and you’ll see the benefits pour into the economy long-term. More people buying houses, spending money on travel or other local items and/or investing in the market. It’s a total no-brainer. 

I dont disagree at all.  But that doesnt mean universities can fleece Uncle Sam.

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1 minute ago, IvanKaramazov said:
1 hour ago, whoknew said:

 

I think its a terrible idea. It doesn't make sense. I don't know if this is a distraction to this thread but - 

If you want to help people who are hurting - then help them. But don't blankelty help college grads. In general, college grads are more well off than non-college grads. Its just a very strange group to have blanket assistance for.

Student loan forgiveness doesn't make much sense economically or ethically, but it makes a ton of sense if you think of the Democrats becoming the party of the white collar professional class and the GOP becoming the party of the working class (especially working class whites, of course).  Handing out a windfall to one of your key constituencies is the sort of thing that political parties do routinely.  This particular realignment seems to have quite a bit of momentum behind it, and some of the policy priorities floating around there -- like this one -- are easy to understand if you think of it as just an exercise in coalition-building.   

We have a large swath of circumstances when it comes to loan forgiveness.  And I can see arguments to relieve SOME of the situations.  And yes, I am fully aware this is delving into "pick and choose who..." territory.

1.  The group who gets a four year degree funded by loans.
2.  The group who gets their four year degree funded by loans, then goes on to higher education to get yet another degree.
3.  The group who begins college and circumstances get in the way, alter their plans, they put school on hold for various legit reasons or drop out for various legit reasons.
4.  The group who goes, fails out and is left with the debt.

There's a larger list than this, but I feel like this covers probably 95% of the circumstances in this country.  To me, #3 and #4 have the most obvious answers.  We do what we can to help those in #3 as long as they can make the case.  #4 is on their own..."pull yourself up by the bootstraps slacker".  The real questions come with #1 and #2 because a good number of them are simply poor financial decisions if we're being honest, so I am not as inclined to dole out money by default to those groups, rather I'd want to see more education around the decisions and this goes back to high school counselors as well.  #1 and #2 are really the problem areas with #2 being the largest chunk of money per person.

In any of these, I think the individuals should be afforded the opportunity to make a "hardship case" though.  Make the case that you shouldn't have to pay the money back and if it's legit, then forgive the debt.  We need to be able to provide a legitimate out for people who have legitimate issues pop up.  I have a ton of thoughts on this subject as my dad was a financial aid director for almost 40 years and I got to see first hand how broken these programs are.  I just feel like I'm rambling now, so I will shut up for now.

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1 hour ago, mrip541 said:

Actual question - What could Biden do on gun control and abortion that wouldn't be fast tracked to the 6-3 conservative supreme court? I think it might actually be to your advantage if he did try and overreach as this seems like the ideal time to challenge that stuff.

The court isnt 6-3 conservative. Roberts is a moderate at best. Many 2A cases were never heard by the court in prior years because it doesnt appear that Roberts wants to touch the subject. In terms of the 2nd the court is most likely 5-4 at best. Biden can attempt executive action or encourage the ATF to reinterpret existing statues as it has done recently regarding pistol braces. If Dems win the Senate then a new "Assault Weapons Ban" is on the table and its even more onerous than the previous one as it will require registration of currently owned firearms and what the President elect dubs as "high capacity magazines" whether they are for said "assualt rifles" or not. Registration would be under the National Firearms Act, which is what restricts full auto weapons, short barrel rifles and suppressors. Such registration would require a "tax" payment of $200 for each item in need of registration. So if I own one of the now "banned" rifles and want to keep it. $200 tax. If I own any magazines for it or any other weapons with a capacity over 10 rounds. I'd also pay a $200 tax for each of those. The NFA also requires that each registered item be engraved with a unique serial number. No problem for the firearm itself as its already serialized. But the magazines would all need to be engraved at an average cost of $50 each. The alternative is to have the government "buy back" the items.

I think the Biden team is hoping they can get this passed and are also hoping most gun owners will keep what they already have and this becomes a revenue stream. There are currently 15-20 million AR style rifles in the US. Not counting any other magazine fed semi auto rifles like AK's or anything else. If the owners of those firearms keep 75% of them then the federal government can expect to collect between $2.25 and $3 Billion dollars from these gun owners. There are many more magazines than that in circulation. If every AR has two magazines, which I think is a low estimate. Then the federal government can expect to collect between $4.5 and $6billion on those magazines alone. This "tax" would also apply to any pistol magazine or any other rifle magazine over 10 rounds. So the federal government can expect a fairly decent influx of cash should such legislation be passed and signed into law. 

However magazine bans are already being challenged in California and elsewhere. Furthermore SCOTUS set some precedent regarding "firearms in common use" in Heller that might hinder such legislation. Although I dont think the die hard gun control crowd in Congress will be deterred. 

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1 hour ago, JAA said:

I dont disagree with the concept, but its not solving a problem, its passing the buck.  The problem which needs solving is the broken higher education system.  If we simply forgive loans it will empower future enrollees to think they will also get a free ride.  It will also incentivize universities to keep tuition high as Uncle Sam will end up footing the bill.

College Loan Forgiveness is a super interesting topic. You guys should start a new thread or revive one of the older ones. I personally lean more towards @JAA's take on this in that the system is broken and bloated. Young people are making poor choices to invest in something that doesn't give them a good return on their investment in many cases. That's mostly on them making a buying decision, not the government in my opinion. 

I'd much rather see the issue addressed than just pour a ton of money into something that doesn't fix the problem for the future. 

Free money is most always a good political move. But there are a ton of people with different feelings if they chose to work their way through college and not borrow the money. It's an interesting topic. 

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58 minutes ago, JAA said:

I dont disagree with the concept, but its not solving a problem, its passing the buck.  The problem which needs solving is the broken higher education system.  If we simply forgive loans it will empower future enrollees to think they will also get a free ride.  It will also incentivize universities to keep tuition high as Uncle Sam will end up footing the bill.

It's already an incentive since there is no meaningful mechanism for people to get out of the loans they enter into.  There is virtually ZERO risk to those lending the money.

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23 minutes ago, knowledge dropper said:
1 hour ago, JAA said:

I dont disagree with the concept, but its not solving a problem, its passing the buck.  The problem which needs solving is the broken higher education system.  If we simply forgive loans it will empower future enrollees to think they will also get a free ride.  It will also incentivize universities to keep tuition high as Uncle Sam will end up footing the bill.

John Stossel did a great story on this issue

https://youtu.be/-uYERZX0aJM

Must watch video

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2 hours ago, HellToupee said:

I’m actually on board with this or a plan to help students from indentured servitude. The system needs addressing and the university/college money machines need to be addressed. Do t know the answer but the fairytale sold to kids early in high school needs to change. I’m all for giving people a chance to buy a chance to live the dream 

The solution to the student debt crisis is to allow this debt to be considered in bankruptcy filings. Under current federal law you cant include student loan debt in bankruptcy filings. Only repayment or death absolves you of your obligations to student debt. Change that and see how quickly the student loan "crisis" evaporates and we begin to treat college tuition lending like we do most other loans. The loan is based on the value of the collateral and the ability of the borrower to repay. A $50K student loan to attend a state school to get a degree in social work probably wont be funded. But a $50K loan to attend the same school to get an engineering or computer science degree might. This would also encourage colleges and universities to reform their pricing models. Not every credit hour should cost the same amount. So you might see the cost of that Bachelors Degree in Social Work decline. Or the overall cost of tuition may decline. 

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1. Him dying or becoming ill though that was a worry with Trump, Bernie, etc. At least Harris is young and energetic but she’s really inexperienced 

2. Failure to balance COVID and the economy 

3. Blowing up the deficit even further on social programs. I’m not against all social programs and we probably do need relief bills for those impacted by COVID but I worry we could get the wrong ones or ones that are half baked as he tries to please too many parts of his base that have very different beliefs. Plus of course the battles with the GOP Senate could leave us with Frankenstein spending that nobody is happy with and just nukes the debt even more.

4. The environment is too polarizing and he’s just not able to bring any ounce of unity to the country and we find ourselves in the same or worse spot on 4 years. 

5. He is torn apart by the far left in his party, the strong right in the Senate and moderates who supported him and with who he probably most aligns with. 

Edited by Ilov80s
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33 minutes ago, JAA said:

Must watch video

I wouldn't say that...Stossel has a ton of good info on this topic, but you need to go back to the 80s and 90s when he was on 20/20 to get to most of it.  He's a shell of what he once was.  Though the part the woman talked about with regard to businesses checking on financials but the government not is part of what I talked about before.  It's a significant problem.  We'd be much better off in the long run just to cut a check for $Xk to every person in the country for college than the current system we have.

Edited by The Commish
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38 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

Student loan forgiveness doesn't make much sense economically or ethically, but it makes a ton of sense if you think of the Democrats becoming the party of the white collar professional class and the GOP becoming the party of the working class (especially working class whites, of course).  Handing out a windfall to one of your key constituencies is the sort of thing that political parties do routinely.  This particular realignment seems to have quite a bit of momentum behind it, and some of the policy priorities floating around there -- like this one -- are easy to understand if you think of it as just an exercise in coalition-building.   

Yeah it makes a lot more sense (outside of politics) to have a $20,000 credit that everyone gets at 18 or 22 or 25 or whatever age makes sense that is meant to cover college, training, professional development, the cost of a truck/tools, rent on an office, state of the art work from home media station or whatever personal cost that people of any profession can use to benefit themselves. 

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1 hour ago, JAA said:

Agree.  I would like to incentivizese trade workers.

Its been a pet peeve of mine over the last 6-7 years or so...all the talk of free college and all...while we ignore the trades.  I think a model of encouraging the trades as well as even community college (TN has a program to pay for 2 years of community college...TN Promise)  Especially in days of people doing school from home.  Would you rather pay a high tuition as a Freshman now...or have free tuition...school from home...work and save money...all while knocking out your usual math/english/history requirements?  If my son was graduating this year or had graduated last year...we definitely would have encouraged that going into this fall and spring.

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38 minutes ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

Really depends on how you view the purpose of this thread.

True...and I agree I came off as abrasive and have said as much in a message I received.  My intent was not to spam or derail.  That is never my intent despite what some may think of me...its just not my mindset.

 

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12 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

1. Him dying or becoming ill though that was a worry with Trump, Bernie, etc. At least Harris is young and energetic but she’s really inexperienced 

2. Failure to balance COVID and the economy 

3. Blowing up the deficit even further on social programs. I’m not against all social programs and we probably do need relief bills for those impacted by COVID but I worry we could get the wrong ones or ones that are half baked as he tries to please too many parts of his base that have very different beliefs. Plus of course the battles with the GOP Senate could leave us with Frankenstein spending that nobody is happy with and just nukes the debt even more.

4. The environment is too polarizing and he’s just not able to bring any ounce of unity to the country and we find ourselves in the same or worse spot on 4 years. 

5. He is torn apart by the far left in his party, the strong right in the Senate and moderates who supported him and with who he probably most aligns with. 

I think 5 is definitely a concern...he has to balance the moderate stances that attracted people to him...with the progressive wing of the party that does seem to gain strength and has very vocal support.

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1 minute ago, sho nuff said:

Its been a pet peeve of mine over the last 6-7 years or so...all the talk of free college and all...while we ignore the trades.  I think a model of encouraging the trades as well as even community college (TN has a program to pay for 2 years of community college...TN Promise)  Especially in days of people doing school from home.  Would you rather pay a high tuition as a Freshman now...or have free tuition...school from home...work and save money...all while knocking out your usual math/english/history requirements?  If my son was graduating this year or had graduated last year...we definitely would have encouraged that going into this fall and spring.

Excellent point. As a society we have been very derisive of the "trades" for almost two generations. We've pitched the notion that a college degree is the only way up the socio economic ladder. As such we've culturally discouraged apprenticeship and on the job training programs. Germany has a very robust system for tradeworker training and apprenticeship.

As for college. My son is wrapping up his first semester. He had planned to go away to a state school. But with Covid all of his classes were going to be virtual. What point is there to go away, spend 8-10K on tuition, room and board to take online classes. So he stayed home and enrolled in the local Community College and is taking all of the same classes for $1500. College can be affordable with a little planning. 

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1 hour ago, JAA said:

I dont disagree with the concept, but its not solving a problem, its passing the buck.  The problem which needs solving is the broken higher education system.  If we simply forgive loans it will empower future enrollees to think they will also get a free ride.  It will also incentivize universities to keep tuition high as Uncle Sam will end up footing the bill.

Anecdotal example warning, but we (small college) did a study a few years ago that (not surprisingly) confirmed our students that had skin in the game performed significantly better than those that don't. I think some sorta reform is necessary that reduces the burden on future students, but free tuition is a non-starter.

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1 minute ago, MAC_32 said:

Anecdotal example warning, but we (small college) did a study a few years ago that (not surprisingly) confirmed our students that had skin in the game performed significantly better than those that don't. I think some sorta reform is necessary that reduces the burden on future students, but free tuition is a non-starter.

Thanks. What do you think about wiping out past college debt for students?

I think my take is I don't see it that much different than if they'd borrowed money for something else. Maybe they wanted to skip college and instead open a lawn care business and borrowed $100,000 to get if off the ground and now the lawn care business has failed. Or they bought a Corvette and realize it's a bad investment. 

Seems to me the change should be in allowing young people to borrow that much money. Not just in erasing all the obligations. 

I also fully admit I'm human and I'd likely have a different selfish angle on this if I or my kids had a bunch of college debt. Free money is enticing. I get it. 

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2 minutes ago, Joe Bryant said:

Thanks. What do you think about wiping out past college debt for students?

I think my take is I don't see it that much different than if they'd borrowed money for something else. Maybe they wanted to skip college and instead open a lawn care business and borrowed $100,000 to get if off the ground and now the lawn care business has failed. Or they bought a Corvette and realize it's a bad investment. 

Seems to me the change should be in allowing young people to borrow that much money. Not just in erasing all the obligations. 

I also fully admit I'm human and I'd likely have a different selfish angle on this if I or my kids had a bunch of college debt. Free money is enticing. I get it. 

Allow them to file for bankruptcy just like the business owner would and directly impact their credit.  There need to be consequences for poor choices (for both the lender and the applicant).  There's a wide breadth of options between "wipe the slate clean with no consequences" and "keep your thumb on the scale making life difficult at every turn until the debt is paid off".  

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2 minutes ago, The Commish said:

Allow them to file for bankruptcy just like the business owner would and directly impact their credit.  There need to be consequences for poor choices (for both the lender and the applicant).  There's a wide breadth of options between "wipe the slate clean with no consequences" and "keep your thumb on the scale making life difficult at every turn until the debt is paid off".  

Agree completely. Another alternative may be to only loan the cost of tuition. Not the cost of room and board, which appear to be the real profit centers for colleges and universities. Had my son gone away to college this year, as planned, the cost of room and board was actually more than the cost of his tuition. Under current laws and structures student loans dont differentiate between the cost of tuition and the cost of room and board. Which is why you see ever more elaborate and luxurious student housing and more and more elaborate dining options on college campuses. Even in a dormitory setting where a student may have a full kitchen in their suite, many colleges require the student to purchase a meal plan. That was the case when we were looking at my sons housing options. 

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6 minutes ago, The Commish said:

Allow them to file for bankruptcy just like the business owner would and directly impact their credit.  There need to be consequences for poor choices (for both the lender and the applicant).  There's a wide breadth of options between "wipe the slate clean with no consequences" and "keep your thumb on the scale making life difficult at every turn until the debt is paid off".  

I'm on the fence on this and could see it either way.  I think education expenses are out of control.  That's the major issue.  But wiping away debt for those that decided to incur those expenses without means isn't necessarily the right way either.  I don't think it's bad, but I think there's other areas where it could help more. 

That said, I wouldn't be opposed to it if there's a reasonable plan in place for it.

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9 minutes ago, The Commish said:

Allow them to file for bankruptcy just like the business owner would and directly impact their credit.  There need to be consequences for poor choices (for both the lender and the applicant).  There's a wide breadth of options between "wipe the slate clean with no consequences" and "keep your thumb on the scale making life difficult at every turn until the debt is paid off".  

Agreed. I think something like letting it be like other loans makes total sense. 

I haven't followed it too closely. Is that what Biden is suggesting? I'd seen more of the $50,000 forgiveness by Executive Order talk. Is there a consensus?

 

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I don’t think he’ll do it, but my biggest concern would be packing the Supreme Court. I fully understand why Democrats would be mad about how the court appointments have worked out for them, but I think starting the pack the courts game is a terrible idea and will only lead to more of a mess.

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The problem with allowing student loans to be discharged through bankruptcy is their non-dischargable status helps the program pay for itself with low interest rates.  We'd see permanent defaults rise dramatically.  It would also make it more difficult for those with student loans to obtain good terms with other types of loans since bankruptcy risk would be higher.

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Part of the issue with allowing student loans to be discharged in bankruptcy is that it’s still essentially a government payout since the federal government owns almost all student loan debt (a provision of the ACA essentially created a government monopoly of student loan debt).

In 1990, the federal government held $0 in student loan debt. By 2009, the government held $150B. They currently hold north of $1T. The value is over 45% of all federal government assets held. The government is also losing somewhere between $100-250B a year on these loans.

In summary, the government already heavily subsidizes the costs of loans and by being not only the guarantor but the actual loan holder, has made borrowing for college very cheap with zero risk for colleges in constantly increasing their costs. Government paying for college has actually made things worse so far. The solution is to create disincentives for colleges to be so expensive, not make it easier for students to spend insane amounts of money on college.

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8 minutes ago, gianmarco said:

I'm on the fence on this and could see it either way.  I think education expenses are out of control.  That's the major issue.  But wiping away debt for those that decided to incur those expenses without means isn't necessarily the right way either.  I don't think it's bad, but I think there's other areas where it could help more. 

That said, I wouldn't be opposed to it if there's a reasonable plan in place for it.

Agree with all this, especially the bold.  I can make an argument that this inability to get free from debt and the relatively zero risk of lenders being left holding the bag is as big a factor as any of the others we can come up with in this thread or any other.  If there were ever a silver bullet in political solutions, this would be one of the few.

7 minutes ago, Joe Bryant said:

Agreed. I think something like letting it be like other loans makes total sense. 

I haven't followed it too closely. Is that what Biden is suggesting? I'd seen more of the $50,000 forgiveness by Executive Order talk. Is there a consensus?

 

Not sure Joe.  He bounced all over the place during his campaign.  I don't know what his plan is honestly.  I do think whatever it ends up being it will be heavily influenced by what happens in the Senate.  If the Dems control the Senate, I'd expect a more robust plan than if he was limited to doing things via EO.  

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I guess my biggest fears for a Biden presidency are more general than specific

  • I fear that Biden will be too concerned with protecting the Obama/Biden legacy to allow for more than minor tweaks to initiatives from that period or, where Trump has taken us elsewhere to try too hard to get back to where we were
  • I fear that Biden will be too convinced that he can work with McConnell and gang and waste energy and political capital on items that are not going to happen
  • I fear that Biden has too many challenges and could easily lose focus by his administration being stretched too thin or trying to have an impact in too many places
  • I conversely fear that Biden will get bogged down on one or two things and allow too much other necessities wither.
  • I fear that Biden's "folkiness" and other personality traits will quickly wear thin
  • I fear that Biden will try too hard to "get back to normal" which is never going to look like "normal" of February 2020 again 

 

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2 minutes ago, Juxtatarot said:

The problem with allowing student loans to be discharged through bankruptcy is their non-dischargable status helps the program pay for itself with low interest rates.  We'd see permanent defaults rise dramatically.  It would also make it more difficult for those with student loans to obtain good terms with other types of loans since bankruptcy risk would be higher.

See, in my view, that's not a "problem" rather how it's supposed to work.  

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18 minutes ago, Joe Bryant said:

Agreed. I think something like letting it be like other loans makes total sense. 

I haven't followed it too closely. Is that what Biden is suggesting? I'd seen more of the $50,000 forgiveness by Executive Order talk. Is there a consensus?

 

Assuming that Biden's campaign site is still what he is thinking then - not really.   He was proposing lots of programs that would be part of a bigger picture, but this specifically he proposed where one can earn 10K a year up to 50K to apply to forgive such loans.  Specifically working in specific jobs.  Maybe that is not much better for some, or his thinking has changed, or there is a consensus building which he will join, but as of now I don't think it is an accurate representation of his thinking.

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19 minutes ago, Joe Bryant said:

Thanks. What do you think about wiping out past college debt for students?

I think my take is I don't see it that much different than if they'd borrowed money for something else. Maybe they wanted to skip college and instead open a lawn care business and borrowed $100,000 to get if off the ground and now the lawn care business has failed. Or they bought a Corvette and realize it's a bad investment. 

Seems to me the change should be in allowing young people to borrow that much money. Not just in erasing all the obligations. 

I also fully admit I'm human and I'd likely have a different selfish angle on this if I or my kids had a bunch of college debt. Free money is enticing. I get it. 

I think the answer lies in applying for hardships and allowing it to be discharged in bankruptcy. Decisions have consequences is my default setting but this is one of those issues in which I think situation matters. Cause so many of these cases stem from (i.e.) uninformed cash poor kid that lacks any sort of support system chasing a dream from a poor school district. They are essentially walking to the table with a short stack that is already < 10% of the big blind. They have no margin for error and don't realize they're six feet under until it's too late to do anything about it. And this is from an institution that has infrastructure in place to try to prevent (or at least minimize) that from happening. And that obviously isn't the case across the whole industry.

I think those sorts of situations need outs, but while they represent a meaningful piece of the pie I would be shocked to learn if they represent a majority. From my experience in my small pond the majority of those that are currently jammed up came in with a relatively large chip stack and squandered it away via a seemingly never-ending stream of poor decisions. I'm not necessarily saying 'so long, good luck' to them...but I don't think they're a priority. If an initiative like this one were to get legs but the budgetary seams are starting to stretch then I think they're the first to go. More nuanced than this but succinctly - X amount of dollars are allocated, Y amount of applications are submitted, then work your way down based on Z criteria until the funding runs dry.

I won't comment on the bankruptcy rules cause I know nothing about them. I just know this debt generally can't be discharged.

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All that said, I'm a homeless fiscal conservative. We are a spend above our means society and both of our parties represent that bug. I'm not in favor of any sort of initiative that increases the deficit without a reasonable means of funding itself - whether that's done in the near or long term. I think this admin has left us in a fiscal position in which we likely cannot consider anything like this right now.

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11 minutes ago, The Commish said:

loans...somehow we've convinced ourselves that student loans are somehow meaningfully different than other loans.  They aren't, best I can tell.

OK.  But then you have to accept big losses in the program, raise interest rates, and/or deny lots more people in the first place.  

There would be other consequences but I'll leave it at this for now.

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6 minutes ago, The Commish said:

loans...somehow we've convinced ourselves that student loans are somehow meaningfully different than other loans.  They aren't, best I can tell.

They are meaningfully different in that 18-25 year olds with no established credit history are receiving them with their still undeveloped prefrontal cortex.  What other large loans exist for this target audience?

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2 minutes ago, Juxtatarot said:

OK.  But then you have to accept big losses in the program, raise interest rates, and/or deny lots more people in the first place.  

There would be other consequences but I'll leave it at this for now.

Correct...just like all other loans.  And I know there are a TON of other consequences, but in my view those "consequences" are driven from a much deeper problem especially when you get into "accessibility" and "qualification" etc.  I also happen to believe that this is also true of other loans as well.  So, depending on where you want to go with this, the loans become a symptom of a much larger problem and I would submit that those problems are NOT addressed in any meaningful until we get real and delve into the actual problem which is manifesting itself in the form of loan qualification and/or availability.

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4 minutes ago, Bottomfeeder Sports said:

They are meaningfully different in that 18-25 year olds with no established credit history are receiving them with their still undeveloped prefrontal cortex.  What other large loans exist for this target audience?

And, to add, no collateral.

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39 minutes ago, Spanky267 said:

Agree completely. Another alternative may be to only loan the cost of tuition. Not the cost of room and board, which appear to be the real profit centers for colleges and universities. Had my son gone away to college this year, as planned, the cost of room and board was actually more than the cost of his tuition. Under current laws and structures student loans dont differentiate between the cost of tuition and the cost of room and board. Which is why you see ever more elaborate and luxurious student housing and more and more elaborate dining options on college campuses. Even in a dormitory setting where a student may have a full kitchen in their suite, many colleges require the student to purchase a meal plan. That was the case when we were looking at my sons housing options. 

I'm not going to get the details 100% right, but from a high level the feds already do this. There are annual limits students can borrow that escalate as they become upperclassmen - starts at $5500/year and tops out at $7500/year. Some students with unique circumstances can qualify for more, but it's exception; not rule. Where students generally get into trouble is when they pursue private loans beyond that. Every college is priced differently, but those limits are below the median cost of public school tuition.

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4 minutes ago, Bottomfeeder Sports said:

They are meaningfully different in that 18-25 year olds with no established credit history are receiving them with their still undeveloped prefrontal cortex.  What other large loans exist for this target audience?

Cars for one...but for the most part "credit" is the target of this group...and it's the exact same problem, but there's an out for poor credit decisions.

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41 minutes ago, The Commish said:

loans...somehow we've convinced ourselves that student loans are somehow meaningfully different than other loans.  They aren't, best I can tell.

They are massively different than other unsecured personal credit, in that student loan debt is guaranteed by the government and are non-discharageable in bankruptcy (other than under the extremely elusive "undue hardship" standard.)  Compared to other unsecured personal debt such as credit card debt or medical debt, student loan debt is a completely different animal.  This is why we have private schools with larger sales staff than teaching faculty who set up their own in-house collection centers to manage the back end.

 

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23 minutes ago, The Commish said:

Cars for one...but for the most part "credit" is the target of this group...and it's the exact same problem, but there's an out for poor credit decisions.

Car loans are secured by the vehicle title - totally different category of debt.

 

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1 hour ago, GroveDiesel said:

I don’t think he’ll do it, but my biggest concern would be packing the Supreme Court. I fully understand why Democrats would be mad about how the court appointments have worked out for them, but I think starting the pack the courts game is a terrible idea and will only lead to more of a mess.

Why? Because it will never end? 

I ask this only because I don't think 9 is some magic number. So if, for example, the Dems proposed Mayor Pete's 5-5-5 plan, I don't see that as being a bad thing.

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Just now, whoknew said:

Why? Because it will never end? 

I ask this only because I don't think 9 is some magic number. So if, for example, the Dems proposed Mayor Pete's 5-5-5 plan, I don't see that as being a bad thing.

Correct, I think it just starts an arms race to pack the courts.

Frankly, I think the Supreme Court is way less political than either side makes it out to be anyway. 

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8 minutes ago, CletiusMaximus said:

Car loans are secured by the vehicle title - totally different category of debt.

 

Yeah, I need to be clearer (as I suspected in the responses before yours)....I KNOW there is a difference between student loans from other loans and the way they are structured etc.  I'm saying they shouldn't be because the circumstances aren't really all that different.  I look at it like this....taking out a student loan is a bet on myself the same way that taking out a loan to start a small business is a bet on myself.  So yes, they are set up differently, but I can't see a good reason for them being set up differently.  The "problems" with these loans are directly tied to the fact that they were set up different and if we want to fix this problem we should look at setting them up similar to the other successful models we have where we're taking bets on ourselves.

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9 minutes ago, The Commish said:

Yeah, I need to be clearer (as I suspected in the responses before yours)....I KNOW there is a difference between student loans from other loans and the way they are structured etc.  I'm saying they shouldn't be because the circumstances aren't really all that different.  I look at it like this....taking out a student loan is a bet on myself the same way that taking out a loan to start a small business is a bet on myself.  So yes, they are set up differently, but I can't see a good reason for them being set up differently.  The "problems" with these loans are directly tied to the fact that they were set up different and if we want to fix this problem we should look at setting them up similar to the other successful models we have where we're taking bets on ourselves.

OK - Understood - it was just phrasing.  By far the most effective thing our government could do would be to remove the federal guarantee of student loan debt and amend the bankruptcy code to remove special treatment.  The notion of "debt cancellation" is just terrible optics, bad semantics (like "defund police").  It seems a much better use of tax dollars is to directly fund state universities and tech schools.  Let the private schools continue to cater to rich kids, while providing competent middle class and poor kids an opportunity to get a secondary education with out a 25 year debt handcuff.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, The Commish said:

So yes, they are set up differently, but I can't see a good reason for them being set up differently.  

If student loans were like other loans some people would be prevented from continuing their education.  In particular, wealthier people with good credit and parents that can co-sign would get sufficient loans at good terms and would be able to get all the education they wanted.  By contrast, kids from underprivileged backgrounds with no parental financial support would be deemed too risky and would not be able to obtain a loan or, if they did, it would have punitive terms.  They would be shut out of many opportunities due to their economic status.  That strikes a lot of people as poor public policy.

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