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Dynasty philosophy: Why don't people "go for it"? (1 Viewer)

Andy Dufresne

Andy Dufresne

Footballguy
I don't get why teams that are in the playoffs, and thus will have late 1st draft picks, don't use those picks more often to shore up the weak spots in their rosters for a run for the title.

Here's a specific example: Guy headed for the playoffs will have something  like the 9th or 10th pick next year. He has Kittle on IR and Jonnu Smith that has been terribly up and down. I offered Goedert for his pick. Rejects outright with a message of "I'm keeping my 1st at this point"?

What's the point of that? Why not take a chance on a bird in the hand? Even if it doesn't work out you'll still have the player. And in this guy's case he'll have Kittle AND Goedert beginning of next year - which he could use to acquire either a pick or player. And if the first is too much, why no counter?

Anyway, this is more of a general point/question. I don't get playing it safe when you've qualified for the playoffs.

Are people really content just being pretty good in-season?

 
If I were almost a championship team but with Kittle out and a need at TE, I still wouldn't trade the 1/1 for Goedert - and I am a Goedert fan. The 1/1 and 1/2 are potential roster changers. A top 5-7 TE is not. I would look for another way to fix the TE situation, maybe giving up my 1.12 and 2nd rounder for a solid TE (knowing Kittle was my future at the position). Giving a best in draft pick up for Goedert in dynasty wouldn't be in my plans.

 
Catbird said:
If I were almost a championship team but with Kittle out and a need at TE, I still wouldn't trade the 1/1 for Goedert - and I am a Goedert fan. The 1/1 and 1/2 are potential roster changers. A top 5-7 TE is not. I would look for another way to fix the TE situation, maybe giving up my 1.12 and 2nd rounder for a solid TE (knowing Kittle was my future at the position). Giving a best in draft pick up for Goedert in dynasty wouldn't be in my plans.
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:confused:

I didn't say he should give up an early first - I said a late first. 

But then it seems like you're agreeing with me - that you'd think about giving up that late 1st.

Again, just using that as an example. I see it time and time again where guys keep a death grip on future possibility in a draft pick at the expense of present worth in an actual player. I don't that idea.

 
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Oops. I misread your first post. I can see your frustration with the guy, but in dynasty I always think you keep the future front and center in any trade, along with what you really think your odds are of winning with or without the trade. I have too little idea of his roster and chances to say much more than that. Apologies for mid-understanding.

 
Catbird said:
Oops. I misread your first post. I can see your frustration with the guy, but in dynasty I always think you keep the future front and center in any trade, along with what you really think your odds are of winning with or without the trade. I have too little idea of his roster and chances to say much more than that. Apologies for mid-understanding.
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This is what I'm getting at, really. Why is the future more important than the present if the present might mean winning it all? Isn't that why you play - to win the championship?

I'm not worried about how Terrace Marshall or Kenneth Gainwell, for example, might impact my team next year if I can instead get a player that can help me right now - when I'm competing to win.

 
Well, I did exactly what you expect... I gave up my 2021 1st (late 9-12 range) for Julio & a 2nd.  If Julio plays, it was a sure upgrade to my WR3 slot.  It was clear worth it for me & he was happy for good return for an older player!

 
I was on the edge of a wildcard spot a few weeks ago. Got offered J Robinson and Tonyan for my 1 and 3. I took the deal hoping the Robinson, mostly, would help me get in the playoffs. Thanks to him I have the inside track now. I often trade my late 1 for a playoff push. 

 
I would almost certainly take that deal. Mmmmmaybe depends just how strong a contender I think I am but I usually try to come with it for the playoffs, even if I'm limping in.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
This is what I'm getting at, really. Why is the future more important than the present if the present might mean winning it all? Isn't that why you play - to win the championship?

I'm not worried about how Terrace Marshall or Kenneth Gainwell, for example, might impact my team next year if I can instead get a player that can help me right now - when I'm competing to win.
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Many have that mentaity, I don't get it either.   Owners fall in love with their players and don't want to trade in case they were wrong.

 
This is the rare trade topic that Is both too specific and too general.

1. Why don’t people go for it? I dunno - people in my league do for sure. My team made the playoffs last year, cashed in 3rd. So this year I made 5 trades that netted Fuller, Carson & Samuel. Spent quite a bit of future draft equity to do it. I’m currently the 1-seed at 8-4. Even without Fuller, I should challenge for a ‘ship, but I don’t have 1st round picks in 2020 or 2021. Isn’t that “going for it”? 

2. Asking for a late 1st for Goedart prior to the season may well have been a decent offer. Seeing the Eagles soil themselves in a prime time game, with their glaring OL issues and terrible play-calling, putting up -3 yards of total offense in the 1st quarter could easily have the effect of tanking the value of everyone on that roster in some people’s minds. And now Ertz is coming off the IR, presumably taking some targets away from Goedart for 2020.

As such, I wouldn’t pay more than a 2nd for Goedart, and if so it would be for his future (2021 ->) value rather than what he’d do this year, so circling back to your original question, paying a 1st round pick for Dallas Goedert isn’t “going for it”. It’s overpaying for an asset that may or may not be a big contributor for a stretch run. 

Sounds to me like the prospective trade partner (wisely) didn’t want Goedart, or at least not at that price. Perhaps he read the tea leaves I’m reading. That doesn’t mean they’re not “going for it”; just that they ain’t going for that. 

 
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I love Goedert and in a vacuum would be fine paying a late first for him but I get why you wouldn’t. It’s not like Goedert is a guaranteed top 5 TE play every week who is giving you an advantage at the position. He has that upside but he’s just as likely to give you 3-30 (especially with Ertz back). 

I’ve been starting Goedert lately but I never feel super confident ticking that box. If he busts over the next few weeks, that guy will be thinking he could’ve made better use of that first, especially on the clock. Of course the counter to that is Goedert will have good value after this year, but I get the hesitation. Doesn’t feel like a slam dunk.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
This is what I'm getting at, really. Why is the future more important than the present if the present might mean winning it all? Isn't that why you play - to win the championship?

I'm not worried about how Terrace Marshall or Kenneth Gainwell, for example, might impact my team next year if I can instead get a player that can help me right now - when I'm competing to win.
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Totally depends on the league. In many of mine people aren't afraid to go for it when they have a chance. In others, future picks are always king. Of course, the good play there is to trade your picks if picks are overvalued. 

It also depends on the team's chances even after the trade. Sometimes there's a big enough gap between a playoff team and the elite that it doesn't seem like a good bet even if the value is reasonable. 

I've traded firsts in different leagues this year for tannehill (super flex) and kelce (total trade was Brady, Tom TBB QB; Ingram, Mark BAL RB; Kelce, Travis KCC TE for Gibson, Antonio WAS RB; Ertz, Zach PHI TE; Year 2021 Round 1 Draft Pick). But in other leagues even if I'm playoff bound I declined to trade picks because the likelihood of it making a difference wasn't high.

 
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Just speaking for myself,  if I think Goedert = late 1st, then I wouldn't call such a trade "going for it" .  I would or would not make that deal regardless off my playoff chances. 

If I think Goedert is worth less than a late first,  then such a trade would be "going for it".  And the main reason I'm hesitant to make such trades is that it doesn't guarantee anything. Head to head playoffs are a crapshoot even with a better team on paper. Unless it's a roster change from Eifert to Kelce,  I don't know that the overpay is worth it. 

Just my thought process in such a scenario. I am a wimp though!

 
I know in my league people over value the picks because many just simply enjoy the draft. It is less fun on draft day when u have no picks.  Plus many see potential of elite in the draft with every pick(which I know is delusional).  I am pretty sure in my league with what will be my late first I can get Pitts or whomever I view as the best TE at that price who is younger and possibly on an O that isnt such a mess.  

 
TheWinz said:
I'm not a dynasty guy and have never been.  I have nothing to add to this conversation.
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And yet you’ve just contributed to this conversation. Irony. 

“And if you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice”

- RUSH

 
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Mingooch said:
I know in my league people over value the picks because many just simply enjoy the draft.
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I find it very freeing. By not having any picks I can do literally anything else on draft day. 

I haven’t had a 1st or 2nd in 3 years of my league. Next year I get a second - I’m super excited!*

*i’mma probably trade that ish away before draft day too. 

 
I think sustainability is built around the draft. 2 new 22 year olds per year increases the likelihood I'll be in the race every year. I value that more than a marginally better chance to win this year. 

 
Most of us have been in the league for 16 years together.  We look forward to it/draft day.  For those local I cook up a storm and serve many craft beers for the participants to enjoy all day long.  We go to town for that day and enjoy all of us getting together.  

 
Goedert for a 1st isn't the best example. It was just the most recent. I'd even agree that he's not worth a late 1st to everyone.

My boggle is when people don't even try to do something.  They'd rather keep a draft pick for next year than use it to get talent now even if the latter would help in the playoffs.

I guess I'm a "damn the torpedoes" guy if I have a chance to win. Sitting on my hands feels like chickening out.

 
This reluctance can be frustrating for a rebuilding, I've been there. But I also understand his hesitation. This is the worst time to sell draft picks. 

 
I'm similar to the team in your dynasty league (having searched for a TE patch since week 6) and I lean against trading a mid-late 1st. In my league, eking into playoffs would typically become 1.7-1.9 pick, with a fair chance it could be 1.5-1.6 if I miss the playoffs despite my effort to patch. Part of it is I'm realistic of why I'm a borderline team (major injuries), and whether the player is going to help me become more than borderline in 2021 and onward. Whether your guy values Goedert appropriately, he may view Goedert as valueless to his 2021 team as a TE2 behind Kittles. Also, Ertz will cloud the picture before FF playoffs start. Beyond that, rookie draft is something I look forward to every year and I hate sitting on the sideline. The research I put into a rookie draft plan is maybe the most enjoyable part of dynasty format for me. 

 
BigJim® said:
I'm similar to the team in your dynasty league (having searched for a TE patch since week 6) and I lean against trading a mid-late 1st. In my league, eking into playoffs would typically become 1.7-1.9 pick, with a fair chance it could be 1.5-1.6 if I miss the playoffs despite my effort to patch. Part of it is I'm realistic of why I'm a borderline team (major injuries), and whether the player is going to help me become more than borderline in 2021 and onward. Whether your guy values Goedert appropriately, he may view Goedert as valueless to his 2021 team as a TE2 behind Kittles. Also, Ertz will cloud the picture before FF playoffs start. Beyond that, rookie draft is something I look forward to every year and I hate sitting on the sideline. The research I put into a rookie draft plan is maybe the most enjoyable part of dynasty format for me. 
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This makes the most sense to me.

I guess people look to get different things out of playing.

 
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Andy Dufresne said:
Goedert for a 1st isn't the best example. It was just the most recent. I'd even agree that he's not worth a late 1st to everyone.

My boggle is when people don't even try to do something.  They'd rather keep a draft pick for next year than use it to get talent now even if the latter would help in the playoffs.

I guess I'm a "damn the torpedoes" guy if I have a chance to win. Sitting on my hands feels like chickening out.
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I fully agree with you in principle, but local conditions can change this dynamic.  For example, in my main league, 8 out of 12 teams make the playoffs, so mortgaging your future for a playoff push is kinda silly.   

 
Mingooch said:
I know in my league people over value the picks because many just simply enjoy the draft. It is less fun on draft day when u have no picks.  Plus many see potential of elite in the draft with every pick(which I know is delusional).  I am pretty sure in my league with what will be my late first I can get Pitts or whomever I view as the best TE at that price who is younger and possibly on an O that isn't such a mess.  
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Yes, people over value picks. Even when a first rounder is just a 50/50 proposition.  Perhaps it is the joy of drafting but I think it boils down to people's excess optimism at what the draft will bring.  There is some analogy to a lottery ticket here...

In your case,  I would think the trade dead line had passed.   However, I see the same reluctance to move picks prior to a season and believe that people don't take advantage of every avenue to improve their team.  For example, seldom do I see teams trading back, even when the board is conducive to such a move.  I think people are generally risk averse.  Or, in your words, prefer to play it safe.

The Goedert example is a tough one.  I am also a believer but the struggle of the offense and the return or Ertz clouds his value considerably.  For this owner, a meaningful game could be three weeks away and a lot can happen between now and then.  Under different circumstances, I might take the shot on Goedert.  But, in the season of COVID and the Eagles being what they are... I would not commit a draft pick at this time.

 
I kind of chalk it up to the same phenomenon that leads to less than half the teams in my leagues EVER trading. It’s combo’s of lethargy, overvaluation of your own players, fear of losing a trade, etc. I have similar examples this year such as a team this morning where all their RB’s are out this week between COVID and injuries, they need to win to get in but told me they have no interest in trading for a RB despite more WR’s or TE’s than they can start. Maybe they’ve already thrown in the towel, IDK.  :shrug:
 

In another league, a team just lost Fuller who was by far their best WR, they have no interest in trading for a WR to replace him either. They are already in but if they win this week could get a 1st round BYE putting them in the money already, but still not making a move to shore up his WR’s.

 
The Future Champs said:
I fully agree with you in principle, but local conditions can change this dynamic.  For example, in my main league, 8 out of 12 teams make the playoffs, so mortgaging your future for a playoff push is kinda silly.   
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Hate this... and, as you acknowledge, it devalues the entire regular season.

 
It's the opposite in my keeper league. Everyone loves the young guy lotto picks that could pay off "someday". 

Which means it's easy for me to scoop up all the old veterans at way below adp. Not only are they cheap, their value is more certain. It makes winning "this year" much easier. 

 
Buckna said:
I kind of chalk it up to the same phenomenon that leads to less than half the teams in my leagues EVER trading. It’s combo’s of lethargy, overvaluation of your own players, fear of losing a trade, etc. I have similar examples this year such as a team this morning where all their RB’s are out this week between COVID and injuries, they need to win to get in but told me they have no interest in trading for a RB despite more WR’s or TE’s than they can start. Maybe they’ve already thrown in the towel, IDK.  :shrug:
 

In another league, a team just lost Fuller who was by far their best WR, they have no interest in trading for a WR to replace him either. They are already in but if they win this week could get a 1st round BYE putting them in the money already, but still not making a move to shore up his WR’s.
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Great examples. I don't understand what the thinking is there. Extreme risk aversion, I guess. But it's also payday aversion.

 
I've got a good one:

Guy in my league has only Wentz, Fitzpatrick, and Winston as his quarterbacks, now without one to plug in to start the play-offs. Mullens, Luton/Glennon, McCoy, and Brandon Allen are the only fill-ins available to pick up. I offer the guy #letRussCook for his 1st and Darnell Mooney. He hasn't declined it yet, but he's hemming and hawing over it. I highly doubt he will.

This would be a pretty easy decision for me. I get it, some people don't like investing in quarterbacks. But this guy would be leading in points with a first round bye if he started Wilson all year instead of Wentz.

Oh well, good luck with Brandon Allen, guy.

 
cloppbeast said:
I've got a good one:

Guy in my league has only Wentz, Fitzpatrick, and Winston as his quarterbacks, now without one to plug in to start the play-offs. Mullens, Luton/Glennon, McCoy, and Brandon Allen are the only fill-ins available to pick up. I offer the guy #letRussCook for his 1st and Darnell Mooney. He hasn't declined it yet, but he's hemming and hawing over it. I highly doubt he will.

This would be a pretty easy decision for me. I get it, some people don't like investing in quarterbacks. But this guy would be leading in points with a first round bye if he started Wilson all year instead of Wentz.

Oh well, good luck with Brandon Allen, guy.
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This is another trope that people wrongly buy into - that QBs don't matter, particularly in 1 QB leagues. It's not true. QBs aren't interchangeable and there are NOT that many elite QBs.

This should be an easy accept for your league mate.

 
I am all about window of opportunity and will easily fill holes and/or shore up depth using future picks when I have a really good team.

I will also sell every worthwhile player I have when I dont have a good team.  Being an average fringe playoff team is just the worst 

 
Andy Dufresne said:
This is another trope that people wrongly buy into - that QBs don't matter, particularly in 1 QB leagues. It's not true. QBs aren't interchangeable and there are NOT that many elite QBs.

This should be an easy accept for your league mate.
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I'm also finding bench spots to be a big factor in qb value.

 
cloppbeast said:
I've got a good one:

Guy in my league has only Wentz, Fitzpatrick, and Winston as his quarterbacks, now without one to plug in to start the play-offs. Mullens, Luton/Glennon, McCoy, and Brandon Allen are the only fill-ins available to pick up. I offer the guy #letRussCook for his 1st and Darnell Mooney. He hasn't declined it yet, but he's hemming and hawing over it. I highly doubt he will.

This would be a pretty easy decision for me. I get it, some people don't like investing in quarterbacks. But this guy would be leading in points with a first round bye if he started Wilson all year instead of Wentz.

Oh well, good luck with Brandon Allen, guy.
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Russell Wilson has awful playoff matchups week 15 against Washington and 16 against the Rams and he hasn’t been cooking consistently lately.  For this year I am not confident starting him in the playoffs, but for dynasty purposes, I’d give a late 1st for Wilson easily just for future seasons.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
This is what I'm getting at, really. Why is the future more important than the present if the present might mean winning it all? Isn't that why you play - to win the championship?

I'm not worried about how Terrace Marshall or Kenneth Gainwell, for example, might impact my team next year if I can instead get a player that can help me right now - when I'm competing to win.
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Is Goedert going to guarantee a championship? Probably not. Maybe he values the pick more than the very slight chance Goedert makes a difference.

I think most owners will play that one on a situational basis. I've traded late first for players in the past during playoff runs - it doesn't mean I'd do it every time.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
Is Goedert going to guarantee a championship? Probably not. Maybe he values the pick more than the very slight chance Goedert makes a difference.

I think most owners will play that one on a situational basis. I've traded late first for players in the past during playoff runs - it doesn't mean I'd do it every time.
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See...the point was that he didn't have a TE and is headed for the playoffs. The exact value isn't the problem.

He could have countered with "how about a 2nd?" or "How about Goedert and your 2.1 or my 1.x?". But instead...nothing. 

 
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Andy Dufresne said:
See...the point was that he didn't have a TE and is headed for the playoffs. The exact value isn't the problem.

He could have countered with "how about a 2nd?" or "How about Goedert and your 2.1 or my 1.x?". But instead...nothing. 
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Maybe he figures that if you're looking for a first, there's little chance you'd take a second. Maybe he doesn't think Goedert with Ertz back and Hurts starting isn't going to move the needle.

There is a reason you're willing to move Goedert for a 1st after-all. 

Generally speaking I think most people do make trades to "go for it" when they have the chance - but some teams just value the draft. The last two drafts probably further spoiled us in thinking that late first can net you studs like Aiyuk, Claypool, Higgins or Gibson types.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
See...the point was that he didn't have a TE and is headed for the playoffs. The exact value isn't the problem.

He could have countered with "how about a 2nd?" or "How about Goedert and your 2.1 or my 1.x?". But instead...nothing. 
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If I were that owner, I would counter with a 2nd if I had one.  But I can see the other owner's POV.   Maybe that owner is in the playoffs, but doesn't feel acquiring Goedert helps his chances that much in relation to the cost.   Maybe the other owner just isn't interested in Goedert, and with Hurts the QB for at least this week, and Ertz back, the appeal for Goedert goes way down in terms of buying him for the stretch run.  Also, as Dr Octopus stated, the last couple of drafts have had some gems go in the late first.

I do agree with you that if I had a chance at a title, you should play to win now.  The NFL stands for Not For Long, and things can change very quickly.

 
Let's just agree that my example wasn't the best one, but it was enough for others to get the point and submit ones that have been better examples...and move on from Goedert.

Let's just say the question is, "Why don't people even attempt to fix the problem spots on their roster when they are in the playoffs?"

You tell 'em, Herm!

You know who it is that says, "It doesn't matter if you win or lose..."? LOSERS, THAT'S WHO!!!

You never hear a winner say, "Well, it's great that we have this trophy and all, but what I'm really proud of is how we played the game. That's what REALLY matters." 

It doesn't matter if you win or lose if you win!

 
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Andy Dufresne said:
Let's just say the question is, "Why don't people even attempt to fix the problem spots on their roster when they are in the playoffs?"
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It's contextual.

I've been trying to improve a contending roster for weeks in one particular league, but lack of assets outside of my starting lineup have thwarted such efforts. I wrote Sunday morning that I generally don't trade future picks to plug holes and give myself a marginally better chance right now. 3 hours after that post an opportunity appeared I didn't anticipate. A team deep at WR expressed interest in a trade involving '22 picks (not '21). That got my attention and after perusing his roster a mid-20 something caught my attention as he has 3 (maybe 4) ahead of him on his depth chart. The risks associated with this guy are well documented, but if he actually stays healthy he's not just an improvement over whoever I decide among Reagor, Shenault, G Davis, R Higgins, and E Sanders as my 3rd WR weeks 15 and 16 this season. He's a sustainable commodity for years after. That's the sorta player this risk adverse gamer will move a pick for if the situation calls. So I moved a '22 #1 to get him and plugged that hole.

I'm not going to defend a contender who does not attempt to improve their roster, but I thought I'd offer the perspective of someone who won't force a short term improvement at the expense of the future even if it means a lesser chance of winning now.

 
MAC_32 said:
I think sustainability is built around the draft. 2 new 22 year olds per year increases the likelihood I'll be in the race every year. I value that more than a marginally better chance to win this year. 
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I disagree with this to an extent.  Every year people are trying to ditch the current Julio Jones type players that are older but still have actual performance value.  These are the type of players that you can get every year that can push you over the top.  Draft picks (unless they are top of the first round) are crap shoots and you are basically as likely to get a guy that pops in the mid to late second as you are in the late first, early second.  

I find many dynasty guys look to far into the future or evaluate based on too many years so they end up always playing for next year.  The point of playing is to win a title.  I think that gets lost sometimes.   

ETA:  I generally value picks much less than others so I have been able to get great deals (IMO) by moving those future picks for players that can help me.  I also only evaluate based on 2 yr windows (this year and next year) so I treat it more like a redraft than most.  It allows me to get the older guys with tread left for super cheap which always keeps me in contention.  It has worked as I have three titles over the 10 years of the league and I have finished in the money (top 4 places - we don't do playoffs) all about 1 or 2 years.  

 
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Gally said:
I disagree with this to an extent.  Every year people are trying to ditch the current Julio Jones type players that are older but still have actual performance value.  These are the type of players that you can get every year that can push you over the top.  Draft picks (unless they are top of the first round) are crap shoots and you are basically as likely to get a guy that pops in the mid to late second as you are in the late first, early second.  

I find many dynasty guys look to far into the future or evaluate based on too many years so they end up always playing for next year.  The point of playing is to win a title.  I think that gets lost sometimes.   

ETA:  I generally value picks much less than others so I have been able to get great deals (IMO) by moving those future picks for players that can help me.  I also only evaluate based on 2 yr windows (this year and next year) so I treat it more like a redraft than most.  It allows me to get the older guys with tread left for super cheap which always keeps me in contention.  It has worked as I have three titles over the 10 years of the league and I have finished in the money (top 4 places - we don't do playoffs) all about 1 or 2 years.  
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I would expect someone with this perspective to have such an opinion. I don't. I'm not going to sit here and say I'm a draft whiz, but I've had a lot of success building my teams through the draft. My dyno teams were at their worst when I took more of a short sighted approach. Since I've adjusted to something more youth and forward thinking centric I am consistently in the playoffs.

 
MAC_32 said:
I would expect someone with this perspective to have such an opinion. I don't. I'm not going to sit here and say I'm a draft whiz, but I've had a lot of success building my teams through the draft. My dyno teams were at their worst when I took more of a short sighted approach. Since I've adjusted to something more youth and forward thinking centric I am consistently in the playoffs.
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The cheapest way you are ever going to land a stud is by using a draft pick to acquire him.

 
MAC_32 said:
I would expect someone with this perspective to have such an opinion. I don't. I'm not going to sit here and say I'm a draft whiz, but I've had a lot of success building my teams through the draft. My dyno teams were at their worst when I took more of a short sighted approach. Since I've adjusted to something more youth and forward thinking centric I am consistently in the playoffs.
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And if you are confident in your drafting and evaluation then there are always gems to be had in the later halfs of drafts that can keep your talent pipeline going.  Obviously both ways work but in my observations the teams that are always hording picks and playing for the future are doing just that.......always playing for the future and never for the now.  I like when that happens.  It's why I have had my success.  They trade me now players for future picks every year.  I am always in it at the end and they maybe get there every 4 or 5 years and are in the bottom 3rd the rest of the time.  I would rather be competitive every year and retool on the fly.  Both ways work so to each their own.

 
If you do too much "win now" stuff you will most likely regret it later.   

I have made several "win later" type moves that actually helped me "now" as well.   Things change really in the NFL.  

 
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