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NY Times - Democrats Biggest Weakness (1 Viewer)

Do you agree with author's opinion?

  • Totally Agree

    Votes: 10 19.6%
  • Mostly Agree

    Votes: 28 54.9%
  • On Fence

    Votes: 5 9.8%
  • Mostly Disagree

    Votes: 6 11.8%
  • Totally Disagree

    Votes: 2 3.9%

  • Total voters
    51

Joe Bryant

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Thought this was interesting by David Leonhardt.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/07/briefing/democratic-party-covid-georgia.html

We’re looking at Democrats’ biggest weakness, and why it matters in Georgia.

The Democratic Party’s biggest problem today is its struggle to win over working-class voters.

After President Trump’s 2016 victory, some political analysts argued that this problem was really all about racism. And Trump’s appeals to white nationalism certainly won him votes.

But it’s also clear that the Democrats’ weakness with working-class voters — defined roughly as people without a four-year college degree — is not only about race. Many Trump voters, after all, voted for Barack Obama in 2012, which suggests they’re not incorrigible racists.

Perhaps even more telling is the shape of this year’s results. Not only did Trump again win by huge margins among working-class whites, but he also fared better among Hispanic voters than he did in 2016. Black voters strongly backed Democrats again, but their turnout appears to have risen less than turnout for other groups.

All of which points to the same issue: The Democratic message is failing to resonate with many working-class Americans.

rest of article at https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/07/briefing/democratic-party-covid-georgia.html


Do you agree with Leonhardt?

 
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Yes, I agree.  I've mentioned this elsewhere, but the two parties are increasingly realigning themselves with the Republicans becoming more of a working class party and the Democrats more of a managerial/professional class party.  That's obviously a very broad statement and it would be easy to find exceptions to this, but I do think it explains a lot of why Democrats are latching onto ideas that are popular inside the managerial class but very unpopular outside of it -- like student loan forgiveness, and overall wokeness -- while Republicans are shifting strongly away from globalism and free trade which used to be bipartisan mainstays.

Edit: It's not really accurate to label that as a "weakness" for the Democrats.  It's more of a strategic decision to hitch their wagon to a particular set of voters at the expense of another set of voters.  All parties do this sort of thing.

 
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There certainly has been a big flip where blue collar workers are voting GOP and white collar workers are voting Democrat. Not sure who that ultimately plays out best for. Depends where you are measuring it. Obviously as a whole, the county prefers the Democratic position but when broken down State by State and district by district, it’s not the case. 

 
I've ranted and raved over "Democratic Messaging" for years.  It is unbelievably bad.  When you can be continually hijacked by the current GOP and it's nonsense, it should give you pause.

ETA:  I voted mostly agree because I understand there are both senders and receivers of messages and responsibility in communication relies on both being willing participants to some extent.

 
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Maybe. It seems like at odd time to point it out though. 

It’s an odd time to point it out for Georgia after it went Blue for the first time since 1992. 

It seems an odd time to point it out nationally after Joe Biden won in a historical landslide, the biggest defeat of an incumbent since 1932. 
 

The coalitions that make up each party may be changing, I have no idea if what the author is saying will be permanent, but right now at least Democrats certainly appear to be in the drivers seat. 

 
I've ranted and raved over "Democratic Messaging" for years.  It is unbelievably bad.  When you can be continually hijacked by the current GOP and it's nonsense, it should give you pause.

ETA:  I voted mostly agree because I understand there are both senders and receivers of messages and responsibility in communication relies on both being willing participants to some extent.
Agreed...weakness as compared to GOP...because the GOP has been better at messaging/marketing themselves to those groups.

 
What is a weakness can also be an opportunity. I think Andrew Yang is mostly right on this:

I would say, ‘Hey! I’m running for president!’ to a truck driver, retail worker, waitress in a diner, and they would say, ‘What party?’ And I’d say ‘Democrat’ and they would flinch like I said something really negative or I had just turned another color or something like that.

So you have to ask yourself, what has the Democratic Party been standing for in their minds? And in their minds, the Democratic Party, unfortunately, has taken on this role of the coastal urban elites who are more concerned about policing various cultural issues than improving their way of life that has been declining for years.

 
Agreed...weakness as compared to GOP...because the GOP has been better at messaging/marketing themselves to those groups.
Even without a comparison they are terrible at messaging.  You can pick literally dozens of different times...the most recent being "defund the police"....that's terrible messaging regardless of what the GOP is doing.  It's brutal and been brutal for a long time.

 
Even without a comparison they are terrible at messaging.  You can pick literally dozens of different times...the most recent being "defund the police"....that's terrible messaging regardless of what the GOP is doing.  It's brutal and been brutal for a long time.
Again I think this all flows back to one big difference between the 2. GOP is pretty unified in what they believe. When Trump shifted the party a bit, they mostly got on board with it. The Democrats are a much looser configuration. We really need 4 parties, not 2. The Trump strong right party, the Bush-Reagan style conservatives, the moderate Biden left and the strong Bernie AOC left. 

 
Everyone in here talking about messaging is correct. The party that brought us tax cuts for the rich, is anti-union, resists minimum wage increases and everything else they stand for are hardly the advocates for the working class they pretend to be but sure let's just keep touting that narrative for them. 

 
It’s an odd time to point it out for Georgia after it went Blue for the first time since 1992. 

It seems an odd time to point it out nationally after Joe Biden won in a historical landslide, the biggest defeat of an incumbent since 1932. 


D's have won the popular vote for the Presidency all but once in the past 8 cycles. Looks like the R's got them right where they want them!


 The party that brought us tax cuts for the rich, is anti-union, resists minimum wage increases and everything else they stand for are hardly the advocates for the working class they pretend to be but sure let's just keep touting that narrative for them. 
Georgia went blue because of wealthy suburbanites. Popular vote is nice but doesn't get you anything. And constantly shouting "but Republicans are worse!" doesn't really get you anywhere unless you can explain how you're going to help people.

I understand why Democratic power brokers want to ignore this problem. What I don't understand is why the rank and file also want to cover it up. Do you genuinely not see this as a long-term problem for the Democratic party?

 
Maybe. It seems like at odd time to point it out though. 

It’s an odd time to point it out for Georgia after it went Blue for the first time since 1992. 

It seems an odd time to point it out nationally after Joe Biden won in a historical landslide, the biggest defeat of an incumbent since 1932. 
 

The coalitions that make up each party may be changing, I have no idea if what the author is saying will be permanent, but right now at least Democrats certainly appear to be in the drivers seat. 
:confused:   I don't think it's an odd time to point it out.

Much of the article is him responding to election results from last month. 

 
Both parties have the same problem.  How do you effectively reach out to moderates without alienating your base? To a degree, it’s an inherently unanswerable problem.

 
Maybe. It seems like at odd time to point it out though. 

It’s an odd time to point it out for Georgia after it went Blue for the first time since 1992. 

It seems an odd time to point it out nationally after Joe Biden won in a historical landslide, the biggest defeat of an incumbent since 1932. 
 

The coalitions that make up each party may be changing, I have no idea if what the author is saying will be permanent, but right now at least Democrats certainly appear to be in the drivers seat. 
Because enough people wanted Trump out specifically.Many voted Biden and then R down ballot Ds lost seats in the house. In PA, Ds held AG, but lost Treasurer and Auditor General.
There was no blue wave.
 

 
Maybe. It seems like at odd time to point it out though. 

It’s an odd time to point it out for Georgia after it went Blue for the first time since 1992. 

It seems an odd time to point it out nationally after Joe Biden won in a historical landslide, the biggest defeat of an incumbent since 1932. 
 

The coalitions that make up each party may be changing, I have no idea if what the author is saying will be permanent, but right now at least Democrats certainly appear to be in the drivers seat. 
Sorry Tim....you can't have it both ways.  :shrug:

How many times did you say (correctly by the way) that this election was all about Trump and Trump fatigue?  Look at all the races down ballot and the gains the GOP made in the House despite a complete rebuking of Trump.  At this moment, all we know is people were sick and tired of Trump.  The Dems managed to not screw it up this election.  It's like riding shotgun and yelling just enough to avoid the obvious craters in the road.  The next 8-12 years will really determine whether they are "in the drivers seat".  I'm not at all convinced this is the case.

 
Both parties have the same problem.  How do you effectively reach out to moderates without alienating your base? To a degree, it’s an inherently unanswerable problem.
And I don't believe this is a problem either.  If we've been shown anything is that the actual "bases" are locked in and it doesn't matter AT ALL what the candidates say.  They are bought in on their "team" and that's not going to change.

 
Georgia went blue because of wealthy suburbanites. Popular vote is nice but doesn't get you anything. And constantly shouting "but Republicans are worse!" doesn't really get you anywhere unless you can explain how you're going to help people.

I understand why Democratic power brokers want to ignore this problem. What I don't understand is why the rank and file also want to cover it up. Do you genuinely not see this as a long-term problem for the Democratic party?
Hasn't there been like 10 "paradigm shifts" in regards to how the electorate allies itself and votes with in this new century?

I get the argument that maybe economics is a stronger foundation to court potential voters than say...social justice. But, it's not like the Democratic Party hasn't had nationwide success in the past three cycles.  

 
Would it be more accurate to say working-class White Americans?  That feels more accurate but I readily admit that could be off base.

ETA - I should have addressed the OP as far as race.  I disagree with the premise but that’s for another thread or not at all.

 
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Hasn't there been like 10 "paradigm shifts" in regards to how the electorate allies itself and votes with in this new century?

I get the argument that maybe economics is a stronger foundation to court potential voters than say...social justice. But, it's not like the Democratic Party hasn't had nationwide success in the past three cycles.  
I'd argue there's really been two paradigms in this century. The first was rally about the flag after 9/11. The next was "throw the bums out" from 2006 onward. 06, 08, 10, 14, 16, 18, and 20 all showed pretty strong general anti-incumbent sentiment. Only Obama's re-election in 2012 bucks the trend but that was due to his immense personal popularity.

Some of those were red waves. Some of those were blue waves. Whichever party can deliver for regular people will have a chance to put together a more stable coalition IMO. But right now it's not clear to me either party wants to do that at the risk of upsetting the donor class.

 
Mostly agree. The right has been very effective at getting working class folks to vote in the interest of the wealthy. The healthcare issue truly baffling to me.

I said mostly agree because I think the  split in the party is the other biggest weakness. 

 
I'd argue there's really been two paradigms in this century. The first was rally about the flag after 9/11. The next was "throw the bums out" from 2006 onward. 06, 08, 10, 14, 16, 18, and 20 all showed pretty strong general anti-incumbent sentiment. Only Obama's re-election in 2012 bucks the trend but that was due to his immense personal popularity.

Some of those were red waves. Some of those were blue waves. Whichever party can deliver for regular people will have a chance to put together a more stable coalition IMO. But right now it's not clear to me either party wants to do that at the risk of upsetting the donor class.
I can agree with that.  I do believe that this country by and large is center-right....and I am a believe in the idea that money solves a lot of problems in life(and by extension...society). I'd also say that the Right would be in a much better way if the messengers of their platform weren't(by and large) filled with such snark, hypocrisy and condescension.    

 
Maybe. It seems like at odd time to point it out though. 

It’s an odd time to point it out for Georgia after it went Blue for the first time since 1992. 

It seems an odd time to point it out nationally after Joe Biden won in a historical landslide, the biggest defeat of an incumbent since 1932. 
 

The coalitions that make up each party may be changing, I have no idea if what the author is saying will be permanent, but right now at least Democrats certainly appear to be in the drivers seat. 
Why is it an odd time to point it out?   Most exceptional coaches....after a dominating victory....prefer to focus on "what went wrong" in the latest game because they know that even in victory, you can learn from the mistakes you made.   That's actually an effective leadership trait.

Even in the best of times, any organization has weaknesses that are worth contemplating.   Why do you think this is different?

 
Would it be more accurate to say working-class White Americans?  That feels more accurate but I readily admit that could be off base.

ETA - I should have addressed the OP as far as race.  I disagree with the premise but that’s for another thread or not at all.
I don't think so. The article talks about that a little more.

If the Democrats’ struggles were really all about racism, several heavily Mexican-American counties in South Texas would not have swung to the Republicans this year. Nor would Trump have increased his vote share in the New York boroughs of Queens and the Bronx by about 10 percentage points versus 2016. He appears to have won a higher share of the vote in the Bronx, which is only 9 percent non-Hispanic white, than in affluent Manhattan, which is 47 percent white, Dave Wasserman of The Cook Political Report pointed out.

 
  Quote
If the Democrats’ struggles were really all about racism, several heavily Mexican-American counties in South Texas would not have swung to the Republicans this year. 
I saw a story on Hispanics in Texas walking away from Biden because he poorly communicated his position on transitioning from oil and gas. Again, messaging.

 
Why is it an odd time to point it out?   Most exceptional coaches....after a dominating victory....prefer to focus on "what went wrong" in the latest game because they know that even in victory, you can learn from the mistakes you made.   That's actually an effective leadership trait.

Even in the best of times, any organization has weaknesses that are worth contemplating.   Why do you think this is different?
There’s nothing new in the article. Many of us have been saying the same thing for years. There are lots of extreme views that Democrats are messaging which makes them unpalatable to both the center and the Republicans. Stuff like “defund the police” is never going to do anything but alienate those that the Democrats need to get elected. 
On the other hand, there are lots of extreme views that Republicans are messaging  which makes them unpalatable to both the center and the Democrats: anti-science, anti-immigration, etc. It’s a big reason Trump got crushed IMO. 
Both the Democrats and the Republicans have the same problem: how to govern effectively without alienating the base. That’s nothing new either. But at least at the present moment the Democrats are moving in the right direction: they’ve chosen a leader who is middle of the road and conciliatory. Joe Biden, not AOC, not Bernie Sanders is the leader of the Democratic Party. Meanwhile the Republicans are still trapped with an extremist leader who is moving them away from the center. 
That’s why it seems odd to discuss this now. For all their faults the Democrats are taking the correct steps. It’s the Republicans who need to fix themselves if we are to get anything done as a nation. 

 
There’s nothing new in the article. Many of us have been saying the same thing for years. There are lots of extreme views that Democrats are messaging which makes them unpalatable to both the center and the Republicans. Stuff like “defund the police” is never going to do anything but alienate those that the Democrats need to get elected. 
On the other hand, there are lots of extreme views that Republicans are messaging  which makes them unpalatable to both the center and the Democrats: anti-science, anti-immigration, etc. It’s a big reason Trump got crushed IMO. 
Both the Democrats and the Republicans have the same problem: how to govern effectively without alienating the base. That’s nothing new either. But at least at the present moment the Democrats are moving in the right direction: they’ve chosen a leader who is middle of the road and conciliatory. Joe Biden, not AOC, not Bernie Sanders is the leader of the Democratic Party. Meanwhile the Republicans are still trapped with an extremist leader who is moving them away from the center. 
That’s why it seems odd to discuss this now. For all their faults the Democrats are taking the correct steps. It’s the Republicans who need to fix themselves if we are to get anything done as a nation. 
Appreciate the reply tim.   Much of what you wrote resonates with me (or as my young co-workers like to say, incorrectly, "I really resonate with that"), but IMO you are taking the OP and article, and in essence you are re-framing it to say what you want it to say.  

To explain what I mean further, how can you say that the Dems are taking "all the right steps" while advancing a message like "defund the police"?   It's fair to say "hey, the Dems won the election and seemed to take many of the right steps."   But clearly they didn't take ALL the right steps, or they wouldn't be losing working class voters to a fairly substantial degree.  Unless that is their gameplan?   

It seems like you are just saying "this is a dumb question to ask because the Dems just won, therefore they have nothing to contemplate and no lessons to learn."  And I don't understand that thought process.   IMO it is equivalent to the KC Chiefs saying "we won the Super Bowl last year.  Let's just do the exact same thing as last year and spend zero time figuring out what we could do better."   I've literally never heard of a long-term, highly successful coach using taking that approach.

 
Money and religion will always be huge, huge sticking points for many citizens.

So as long as Republicans embrace Christianity (i.e. pro-life), they will keep an entire population of voters no matter what the message is from Democrats.

And as long as Republicans continue to announce they will cut taxes as a message, it's irrelevant that they don't decrease spending (thus continue to increase the deficit) and that most tax cuts they enact benefit the wealthy. So, with that messaging, once again, they will have a large base that will follow along even though they don't realize it likely isn't benefiting them at all.

Yes, Democratic messaging can and should be improved, but I don't think it ultimately matters.

 
To explain what I mean further, how can you say that the Dems are taking "all the right steps" while advancing a message like "defund the police"
The Democratic Party -- as a collective entity -- is advancing the message of "defund the police"? It seems more to me like narrow-niche, one-off messages are getting over-applied to a broad coalition of party members and party supporters.

 
Could argue that their biggest weakness is that they've been unwilling to adopt a platform of disinformation.
The GOP messaging is certainly more clear and straightforward. It’s dumb but the catch phrases and buzz words really seem to work. Socialist, leftists, lock her up, snowflake and all that other rhetoric seems to be what really sticks with a lot of people. 

 
The Democratic Party -- as a collective entity -- is advancing the message of "defund the police"? It seems more to me like narrow-niche, one-off messages are getting over-applied to a broad coalition of party members and party supporters.
The Dems aren’t putting out a better, more coherent slogan as an alternative.  And too many liberals have latched onto and are repeating that absurd message.

 
gianmarco said:
Money and religion will always be huge, huge sticking points for many citizens.

So as long as Republicans embrace Christianity (i.e. pro-life), they will keep an entire population of voters no matter what the message is from Democrats.

And as long as Republicans continue to announce they will cut taxes as a message, it's irrelevant that they don't decrease spending (thus continue to increase the deficit) and that most tax cuts they enact benefit the wealthy. So, with that messaging, once again, they will have a large base that will follow along even though they don't realize it likely isn't benefiting them at all.

Yes, Democratic messaging can and should be improved, but I don't think it ultimately matters.
Interesting.....and as long as democrats promise to give voters free stuff, I imagine nothing else they say is relevant.

 
Doug B said:
The Democratic Party -- as a collective entity -- is advancing the message of "defund the police"? It seems more to me like narrow-niche, one-off messages are getting over-applied to a broad coalition of party members and party supporters.
Well..Considering the party's former leader, President Obama, called them out on it and had major Democrats like Omar discredit his statements, yeah, there seems to be a very strong push for this in the Democratic party.

 
Thunderlips said:
D's have won the popular vote for the Presidency all but once in the past 8 cycles. Looks like the R's got them right where they want them!
How’s this landslide theory holding up when we look at state legislatures and gubernatorial races?

 
How’s this landslide theory holding up when we look at state legislatures and gubernatorial races?
D's gained 7 gubernatorial seatsin 2018.  They gained 6 state government trifects in 2018....and gained 41 in the House.

Parties ebb and flow. It's just kind of funny that people want to spell doom and gloom for the D's AFTER beating the R candidate with arguably the highest level of enthusiam (at least with his 40%) of all-time.  

If the D's beat a man of Trumps stature with a guy like Joe Biden...what'g going to happen when the D's get a candidate with real pop?

 
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The democrats' problem here is that this country doesn't have many problems that are solved by sound byte length honest slogans. 
$15/hour. Legalize Marijuana. Expand Medicare.

All of these are concrete policies that will actually help regular people and can be reduced a sound byte. All of these positions are more popular than the Democratic Party overall. Make them happen and maybe you can build a coalition to do even bigger things.

 
$15/hour. Legalize Marijuana. Expand Medicare.

All of these are concrete policies that will actually help regular people and can be reduced a sound byte. All of these positions are more popular than the Democratic Party overall. Make them happen and maybe you can build a coalition to do even bigger things.
Absolutely. It's the responsibility of every organization to make their message understandable. 

You don't get to just say, "We're so sophisticated our message is just too difficult for you to comprehend". Not if you want to survive.

You make it understandable. Or you fail. 

Simple and clear messaging might seem simple. It's not. It's difficult to distill a message to where it's understood. Marketing is hard. 

 
Alex P Keaton said:
Appreciate the reply tim.   Much of what you wrote resonates with me (or as my young co-workers like to say, incorrectly, "I really resonate with that"), but IMO you are taking the OP and article, and in essence you are re-framing it to say what you want it to say.  

To explain what I mean further, how can you say that the Dems are taking "all the right steps" while advancing a message like "defund the police"?   It's fair to say "hey, the Dems won the election and seemed to take many of the right steps."   But clearly they didn't take ALL the right steps, or they wouldn't be losing working class voters to a fairly substantial degree.  Unless that is their gameplan?   

It seems like you are just saying "this is a dumb question to ask because the Dems just won, therefore they have nothing to contemplate and no lessons to learn."  And I don't understand that thought process.   IMO it is equivalent to the KC Chiefs saying "we won the Super Bowl last year.  Let's just do the exact same thing as last year and spend zero time figuring out what we could do better."   I've literally never heard of a long-term, highly successful coach using taking that approach.
First off, here's what I mean by taking the right steps: there are those within the Black Lives Matter movement, and some among progressives, that support the "defund the police" thing (though even then it doesn't mean what opponents imply.) But the leadership of the party immediately rejected it: Biden, Jim Clyburn, Nancy Pelosi, etc. Now you can't shut these folks (the progressives) up; there is free speech after all. Nor can you stop conservatives from trying to link these voices with the party as a whole. (Heck, they're doing it in this thread.) All you can do is continually point out that (a) the leadership of the party rejects it and (b) when Democratic voters were given a chance to decide between the center (Biden) and the left (Bernie) they overwhelmingly chose the center.

Given this, I would indeed reframe the argument:  Republicans did not gain ground in November because Democrats have moved too far to the left; they gained ground in November because they were successful in falsely portraying the extreme left of the Democratic party as representing the Democratic party as a whole. The question then becomes not how to move the Democratic Party to the center; its already there. The question is how does the Democratic party convince the public that its moved to the center? And the answer is: lets watch how Biden behaves. Everytime AOC and Omar and the rest of them criticize Joe Biden, that's a good day for the Democratic Party. That's what we want.

 
Well..Considering the party's former leader, President Obama, called them out on it and had major Democrats like Omar discredit his statements, yeah, there seems to be a very strong push for this in the Democratic party.
Still think of her, AOC, Tlaib, etc. as fringe figures, not standard-bearers. I don't think the centrists within a party have to own and embrace the things their fringe says. Similar that a Reagan-Bush Republican doesn't have to embrace nationalism.

 
$15/hour. Legalize Marijuana. Expand Medicare.

All of these are concrete policies that will actually help regular people and can be reduced a sound byte. All of these positions are more popular than the Democratic Party overall. Make them happen and maybe you can build a coalition to do even bigger things.
I don't think any of those are marketing winners for democrats.   They all do well in a vacuum, but they are all pretty easily countered especially in a center-right, risk/change averse nation.  Especially among the voters being mentioned here.  $15 hour means already devastated small business will need to cut back on employees and expanded Medicare means all of those union concessions for better health coverage were for naught.   

 

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