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TEAM TOTAL        TEAM TOTAL        GAME TOTAL
30    TENN              23    JAX                53
23.5    DAL              20    CIN                43.5
24    ARI                 21.5    NYG            45.5
22.75  HOU           21.75    CHI           44.5
21.5    DEN            25    CAR               46.5
22.5    MINN           29    TB                 51.5
28.25    KC            21.25    MIA            49.5
26.75    IND           24.25    LVR             51
17    NYJ               30.5    SEA              47.5
31.25    GB             23.75    DET            55
26    ALT               23.5    LAC               49.5
26    NOS               18.5    PHI               44.5
20    WAS             23.5    SF                  43.5
 

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Something to keep an eye on this week. Carolinas DLine is hurting thanks to the ‘vid. If their starters are out, Melvin Gordon should be a decent, cheap option. Carolina has also struggled with TE’s this year. Fant might be in for a decent week as well.

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I think Russ gets right this week.  Henry and Jones with great matchups.  Mitch just laid an egg last week, but he has another good matchup - can we trust it?  Low total, but Elliott has a good matchup in the Dalton revenge game.  I think Indy handles the Raiders this week.  Julio out duals Allen.  Can Hurts out run Taysom?   Full slate.  Lots of options.  

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Tenn/Jax

I think I will attack this game from the Jaguars side.  Glennon with Robinson/Johnson and run back with Henry and/or Davis.

TB/Minn

I like the TB side, but I have no idea who to pair Brady with.  I will probably try to go with the cheaper options.  That would mean something like Brady with Brown and run back with Rudolph.  Hard not to like several options in this one, but I am not sure I can afford to play enough combinations.  It might be a great week to get Cook lower owned against a good defense.

KC/Mia

Mahommes with HIll/Kelce is obvious, along with the run back of Gaskin.  Might be interesting to attack from the other side.  Tua has several cheap WR options and I think they will be trailing most of the day.

Ind/LVR

I think the Colts are to good on defense for the Raiders.  Several affordable options in this one and I also think it might be a high total game that goes under owned.

GB/Det

Rodgers with Jones/Adams is a great option, but expensive.  I love Jones this week, again.  Detroit has a few run back options, so I expect this to be a very popular option on the slate.

Alt/LAC

I think this will be the most popular game on the slate.  Reasonably affordable with many options to spread the ownership, along with predictable volume.  Ryan with Julio and a run back of Ekeler is what I like early in the week.

NO/Phi

I am not all that interested in the other side of this game, but the Saints have a very high team total.  I am a sucker for a cheap athletic QB, but I am not sure the Eagles will maximize his skills, especially against a good D.  I also think the Eagles have a good enough defense to give the Saints some trouble.  It isn't that I am not interested in this one, but I need to look more at it.

Sea/NYJ

I have no interest in the Jets, not even with a run back.  I love Russ in this one.  Everyone attacks the Jets through the air and the Seahawks have the weapons.  The hard part is making the other pieces fit around those expensive Seahawk options.

 

Please note it is early and I have not spent much time checking prices or looking for value.  These are just some initial thoughts on the higher total games of the weeks.

 

Last thing:  I will have some Dalton with Elliott/WR versus the Bengals this week.  I know the total is low, but I can not help myself.  I like the Red Rifle in his revenge game against a bad defense.  I also think Dallas D is so bad that it makes a few Bengals options as run backs.  I believe Mixon may return this week, which might make for an interesting options too.  

 

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Probably pushing all in this week on DK, so I am trying to a little research this week since I am off of work.  

Started with RBs.  I looked at the OL vs DL rush potential chart.   That was (in order):

Zeke, A.Jones, R.Jones, Henry, J.Rob, D.Mont, CEH, Gurley

Then I also added on a couple high total favorites:   

Carson, J.Taylor

 

I am on DK, so the opps and target % stand out more, so that narrowed it down to: A.Jones, J.Rob, D.Mont, and Carson as the main targets.   I just don't see myself play ATL rbs or CEH, so I might as well cross them off.   I think R.Jones, Zeke, and Taylor are in the gpp mix depending on ownership.  

 

 

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The high pace games were:

Atl/LaC

Tenn/Jax

Dallas/Cinci

NYG/AZ

 

The first two are in the 49+ game total games.    It's not on the list, but I keep going back to the Minn/TB game.  Cousins' air yards are going up, Brady is #2 this week as far as airyards and attempts go.  Both pretty concentrated offenses too - Jefferson and Thielen is easy.   It does look like Evans took over as target% and air yds%, so that would be primary target, then mix and match with Godwin, Brown, Gronk.  :shrug:    I guess it would be fitting to push all in on my boy Brady.  

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16 hours ago, FatNate said:

Tenn/Jax

I think I will attack this game from the Jaguars side.  Glennon with Robinson/Johnson and run back with Henry and/or Davis.

TB/Minn

I like the TB side, but I have no idea who to pair Brady with.  I will probably try to go with the cheaper options.  That would mean something like Brady with Brown and run back with Rudolph.  Hard not to like several options in this one, but I am not sure I can afford to play enough combinations.  It might be a great week to get Cook lower owned against a good defense.

KC/Mia

Mahommes with HIll/Kelce is obvious, along with the run back of Gaskin.  Might be interesting to attack from the other side.  Tua has several cheap WR options and I think they will be trailing most of the day.

Ind/LVR

I think the Colts are to good on defense for the Raiders.  Several affordable options in this one and I also think it might be a high total game that goes under owned.

GB/Det

Rodgers with Jones/Adams is a great option, but expensive.  I love Jones this week, again.  Detroit has a few run back options, so I expect this to be a very popular option on the slate.

Alt/LAC

I think this will be the most popular game on the slate.  Reasonably affordable with many options to spread the ownership, along with predictable volume.  Ryan with Julio and a run back of Ekeler is what I like early in the week.

NO/Phi

I am not all that interested in the other side of this game, but the Saints have a very high team total.  I am a sucker for a cheap athletic QB, but I am not sure the Eagles will maximize his skills, especially against a good D.  I also think the Eagles have a good enough defense to give the Saints some trouble.  It isn't that I am not interested in this one, but I need to look more at it.

Sea/NYJ

I have no interest in the Jets, not even with a run back.  I love Russ in this one.  Everyone attacks the Jets through the air and the Seahawks have the weapons.  The hard part is making the other pieces fit around those expensive Seahawk options.

 

Please note it is early and I have not spent much time checking prices or looking for value.  These are just some initial thoughts on the higher total games of the weeks.

 

Last thing:  I will have some Dalton with Elliott/WR versus the Bengals this week.  I know the total is low, but I can not help myself.  I like the Red Rifle in his revenge game against a bad defense.  I also think Dallas D is so bad that it makes a few Bengals options as run backs.  I believe Mixon may return this week, which might make for an interesting options too.  

 

TEN-JAX

I like your thinking on JAX. I think they can score points.  Problem is, seems like every time I start someone other than Robinson I get burned. I just can’t trust JAX.  Besides, I HATE Glennon, even from his college days.

On the TEN side, I look for TEN to go run heavy this week (i.e. a lot of Derrick Henry). However, I could see them airing it out as well. So take your pick.  FWIW, apparently Davis and Brown get pretty much the same # of targets, but Davis is a lot cheaper.

 

TB-MINN

Again, I agree with you.  TB is the way to go on this one. I know Brady tends to spread the ball around, but IMO he tends to lock in on Evans in the red zone. I would stack Gronk as well.  He is getting more looks and it fills that pesky TE slot.

I doubt I will do much MIN.  Tampa has a good defense and Cousins doesn’t throw a whole lot. I have no problems using Cook (though I will be underweight myself). Interesting fact: Cook and Thielen have accounted for 2 out every 3 offensive touchdowns (25 of 38)

 

KC / MIA

This is a game I will be underweight on.  I will have the obligatory Mahomes/Hill/Kelce stack, but very few.  Miami’s defense is solid, but I do not trust their offense. I think MIA keeps the scoring down on this one.  Agree on Gaskins though. KC is vulnerable to the run and Gaskins’ volume and price makes him a core play for me.

 

IND / LV

This is a tough game for me.  I like the over/under and I like the spread.  Trouble is, there is no way to stack IND. (I guess you could but you would be using a lot of lineups).  Vegas can be up and down and I am concerned that they will have trouble with the IND D.  I just don’t trust them this week.  However, I do like Johnathan Taylor as a nice pivot in this one.

 

GB / DET

OK, I am ALL OVER this one.  55 O/U, though the spread is a little much.  I will be heavy on Rodgers and Adams. I will also have plenty of Lazard and Valdez-Scantling as well.  Probably not enough Tonyan (for reasons I explain below), but I will live with it. I also like AJones, but I doubt I will be using much of him; I just hope he doesn’t burn me.  I realize this is pretty much chalk; but I believe chalk is chalk for a reason, I’ll find other places to pivot.

On the DET side of things, I will be using Hockenstein as a run-back.  Again good volume and fills a troubling position.  I will also include a few Stafford/Hockenstein/WR stacks just to get away from the chalk.

 

ATL/LAC

I can see your thinking about this game.  Nice tight game, mediocre to bad defenses, easy stacks. Personally, though, I’m just not too excited about this one.  Ryan and Julio is a great combo as is Herbert and Allen. I just don’t see it living up to expectations. Atlanta’s defense while towards the bottom is improving. LAC has shown it can limit opponents at times. I’m not going to be doing much with this one; I could be wrong, but I will live with it.  That said, this could be a great contrarian pick.

 

NO/Phi

This is another game I just cannot get excited about. I don’t like Taysom at QB, just not enough upside. He is passing more which is a plus, but I’m still not ready to go that route. Hill has killed Kamara’s value, although it is good to see Michael Thomas getting more looks; he may be viable this week.  I am intrigued by Jalen Hurts, but I cannot see using him against the Saints.

 

Sea/NYJ

OK this game screams a SEA stack. Personally, I saying “not so fast.” Seattle’s offense has been trending down the last few weeks and I don’t necessarily see a turnaround coming.  Even if the Seattle offense does get right against the Jets, they are likely going to be up big and on cruise control for much of the game limiting its upside.  I will have a few Russ/Metcalf/Lockett stacks, but not as many as one would expect.

As for New York, I will DEFINITELY be running back with J Crowder. Darnold seems to LOVE him and if (as expected) NY is behind early, they will be chucking the ball a lot.  I could even see a contrarian stack of Darnold/Crowder/Perriman, but I am not going overboard.

 

Dal/Cin

You touched on this one, but I would like to expand. This game, admittedly, is not a great one for stacking. Cincy is terrible and there are no real good options, even against the horrid Dallas defense. On the other side of the ball, Dallas has struggled without Dak, so I can see why people do not expect a lot from them.  Still, I like the Dalton revenge angle; though I personally wouldn’t stack it myself. I do like, though, Ezekiel Elliot. He has a great matchup and potentially heavy usage. If he is to do anything this year, this is the game to do it.  At $7700, with his upside, I am in and in big.

 

DEN/CAR

I don’t if you deliberately left this one off or not.  I understand – nothing to see here. I’m not stacking either team, no upside. Still, do not forget McCaffery is back.  I will be using him when possible, but he will not be a priority.  On the other side, I do like Melvin Gordon.  I think he can get some yards and TDs. I think he could be a great pivot.

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Full slate this week.  My thoughts on the other games:

 

HOU/CHI

Two teams in pretty much freefall. DeShawn without Fuller is like Batman without Robin, it’s just not the same.  Chicago’s D is not quite as tough as earlier, but can still be a challenge.  By the way, I was wrong about Coutee. He did OK and may be a cheap option ($5600) at WR this week.  I will likely use him as a stand-alone to fit my Green Bay stacks.

Another one I was wrong about was David Montgomery.  He always had the volume, but never did anything with it. Last two weeks he has really shown up.  He has a good matchup against the Houston D and I could see him giving good value at $6600 this week.

 

ARI/NYG

After shocking Seattle, the Giants get Kyler and Co.  Another game that doesn’t offer a lot in terms of scoring, so again no stacking. The Giants do have a couple of stand-alone options though. Wayne Gallman has been trending up lately and ARI is middle of the road against the run. At $6000, he could be a good choice when paying up at WR. Also Evan Engram is a solid choice at TE.

 

WSH /SF

Washington Football Team upset Pittsburgh, but that doesn’t mean I am ready to jump on board. San Francisco’s defense is banged up, but still decent.   Washington is known more for its pass rush than passing. SF primarily runs the ball and passes only when necessary.  With Mullins at the helm, even when they do pass they are not very effective. Only person I would consider in this one is Antonio Gibson and he is unlikely to play.  I'll sit this one out.

 

Current Lineup:

Rodgers/Elliott/Gaskin/Adams/Lazard/Coutee/Hockenstein/Mongomery/CAR

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6 hours ago, LoneWolf said:

TEN-JAX

I like your thinking on JAX. I think they can score points.  Problem is, seems like every time I start someone other than Robinson I get burned. I just can’t trust JAX.  Besides, I HATE Glennon, even from his college days.

On the TEN side, I look for TEN to go run heavy this week (i.e. a lot of Derrick Henry). However, I could see them airing it out as well. So take your pick.  FWIW, apparently Davis and Brown get pretty much the same # of targets, but Davis is a lot cheaper.

 

TB-MINN

Again, I agree with you.  TB is the way to go on this one. I know Brady tends to spread the ball around, but IMO he tends to lock in on Evans in the red zone. I would stack Gronk as well.  He is getting more looks and it fills that pesky TE slot.

I doubt I will do much MIN.  Tampa has a good defense and Cousins doesn’t throw a whole lot. I have no problems using Cook (though I will be underweight myself). Interesting fact: Cook and Thielen have accounted for 2 out every 3 offensive touchdowns (25 of 38)

 

KC / MIA

This is a game I will be underweight on.  I will have the obligatory Mahomes/Hill/Kelce stack, but very few.  Miami’s defense is solid, but I do not trust their offense. I think MIA keeps the scoring down on this one.  Agree on Gaskins though. KC is vulnerable to the run and Gaskins’ volume and price makes him a core play for me.

 

IND / LV

This is a tough game for me.  I like the over/under and I like the spread.  Trouble is, there is no way to stack IND. (I guess you could but you would be using a lot of lineups).  Vegas can be up and down and I am concerned that they will have trouble with the IND D.  I just don’t trust them this week.  However, I do like Johnathan Taylor as a nice pivot in this one.

 

GB / DET

OK, I am ALL OVER this one.  55 O/U, though the spread is a little much.  I will be heavy on Rodgers and Adams. I will also have plenty of Lazard and Valdez-Scantling as well.  Probably not enough Tonyan (for reasons I explain below), but I will live with it. I also like AJones, but I doubt I will be using much of him; I just hope he doesn’t burn me.  I realize this is pretty much chalk; but I believe chalk is chalk for a reason, I’ll find other places to pivot.

On the DET side of things, I will be using Hockenstein as a run-back.  Again good volume and fills a troubling position.  I will also include a few Stafford/Hockenstein/WR stacks just to get away from the chalk.

 

ATL/LAC

I can see your thinking about this game.  Nice tight game, mediocre to bad defenses, easy stacks. Personally, though, I’m just not too excited about this one.  Ryan and Julio is a great combo as is Herbert and Allen. I just don’t see it living up to expectations. Atlanta’s defense while towards the bottom is improving. LAC has shown it can limit opponents at times. I’m not going to be doing much with this one; I could be wrong, but I will live with it.  That said, this could be a great contrarian pick.

 

NO/Phi

This is another game I just cannot get excited about. I don’t like Taysom at QB, just not enough upside. He is passing more which is a plus, but I’m still not ready to go that route. Hill has killed Kamara’s value, although it is good to see Michael Thomas getting more looks; he may be viable this week.  I am intrigued by Jalen Hurts, but I cannot see using him against the Saints.

 

Sea/NYJ

OK this game screams a SEA stack. Personally, I saying “not so fast.” Seattle’s offense has been trending down the last few weeks and I don’t necessarily see a turnaround coming.  Even if the Seattle offense does get right against the Jets, they are likely going to be up big and on cruise control for much of the game limiting its upside.  I will have a few Russ/Metcalf/Lockett stacks, but not as many as one would expect.

As for New York, I will DEFINITELY be running back with J Crowder. Darnold seems to LOVE him and if (as expected) NY is behind early, they will be chucking the ball a lot.  I could even see a contrarian stack of Darnold/Crowder/Perriman, but I am not going overboard.

 

Dal/Cin

You touched on this one, but I would like to expand. This game, admittedly, is not a great one for stacking. Cincy is terrible and there are no real good options, even against the horrid Dallas defense. On the other side of the ball, Dallas has struggled without Dak, so I can see why people do not expect a lot from them.  Still, I like the Dalton revenge angle; though I personally wouldn’t stack it myself. I do like, though, Ezekiel Elliot. He has a great matchup and potentially heavy usage. If he is to do anything this year, this is the game to do it.  At $7700, with his upside, I am in and in big.

 

DEN/CAR

I don’t if you deliberately left this one off or not.  I understand – nothing to see here. I’m not stacking either team, no upside. Still, do not forget McCaffery is back.  I will be using him when possible, but he will not be a priority.  On the other side, I do like Melvin Gordon.  I think he can get some yards and TDs. I think he could be a great pivot.

I was not sure what to do with the Den/Car game.  All the Car WR are on The Rona list.  McCaffrey has not officially been activated.  This is a game I will monitor the rest of the week, but CMC plays I am in!

Red Rifles Revenge Stack:  Andy - Elliott/Gio/CMC - Metcalf/Robinson/Coutee - Shultz - Panthers

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31 minutes ago, FatNate said:

I was not sure what to do with the Den/Car game.  All the Car WR are on The Rona list.  McCaffrey has not officially been activated.  This is a game I will monitor the rest of the week, but CMC plays I am in!

Red Rifles Revenge Stack:  Andy - Elliott/Gio/CMC - Metcalf/Robinson/Coutee - Shultz - Panthers

 

11 minutes ago, FatNate said:

I am struggling with lineups this week, because I want to fit in all the expensive RBs!  I need to keep digging and working, because so far my plan for this week is not working.

I think DEN runs Gordon against CAR, don’t like the RB situation in CAR. CMC is a fragile feather, even if he plays I don’t think he finishes, DEN has a decent DL. In on Gordon, put on CAR RB’s for me.

@LoneWolf pointed out Galloway above who has a nice matchup and is cheap so I’m in on him as well. Free’s up some space to load up on some higher value WR/TE.

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As far as the TB wr debate, especially on FD, one of the pods had a great point that Evans is getting peppered with the RZ targets I think he has 16 or so, and Godwin/Brown combine for about 2-3.  

 

I will relook at ownership projections on Friday/Saturday of course, but seeing Jefferson at 5%, Evans at 2%, Gronk at 1% is making me like that game even more for a stack.  

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3 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

As far as the TB wr debate, especially on FD, one of the pods had a great point that Evans is getting peppered with the RZ targets I think he has 16 or so, and Godwin/Brown combine for about 2-3.  

 

I will relook at ownership projections on Friday/Saturday of course, but seeing Jefferson at 5%, Evans at 2%, Gronk at 1% is making me like that game even more for a stack.  

Those ownership numbers are very surprising to me.  Thanks for the update.

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So far LU's I'm toying with for Sunday:

QB-T. Brady/RB-M. Gordon, W. Gallman/WR-M. Evans, D. Metcalf, J. Jefferson/TE-T. Hockenson/Flex-C. Davis/Def-Eagles

QB-P. Mahomes/RB-A. Jones, W. Gallman/WR-T. Hill, C. Davis, C. Lamb/TE-E. Engram/Flex-S. Watkins/Def-Jaguars

QB-A. Rodgers/RB-W. Gallman, M. Gordon/WR-D. Adams, K. Coutee, T. Hilton/TE-T. Hockenson/Flex-J. Robinson/Def-Eagles

 

Idk, feeling cute...might donate again this week

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2 hours ago, beer 30 said:

So far LU's I'm toying with for Sunday:

QB-T. Brady/RB-M. Gordon, W. Gallman/WR-M. Evans, D. Metcalf, J. Jefferson/TE-T. Hockenson/Flex-C. Davis/Def-Eagles

QB-P. Mahomes/RB-A. Jones, W. Gallman/WR-T. Hill, C. Davis, C. Lamb/TE-E. Engram/Flex-S. Watkins/Def-Jaguars

QB-A. Rodgers/RB-W. Gallman, M. Gordon/WR-D. Adams, K. Coutee, T. Hilton/TE-T. Hockenson/Flex-J. Robinson/Def-Eagles

 

Idk, feeling cute...might donate again this week

Do you often play a WR in the flex?

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Love their theory segments - a couple more gpp points to pass along from the 4for4 podcast:

  • you don't always need the comeback for a QB stack, and you don't always need to use a double stack.   I think the stat was 25-30% of the time there isn't a comeback in the big winner LUs.   Example would be last week when the milly winner didn't have a Jets player in the LV stack.   Mostly the point was to think about the Os involved.  IE the Jets are trash, so you might not need that comeback player.   Or if an offense spreads the ball around, a comeback might not be the way to go either.    To the point, he brought it up in the context that if we are building 10+ LUs, we might want to think about this for 20-30% of them and not just force in Qb + 2players + comeback in every LU.  
  • Correlation is more the key.   HE said that 100% of the winners had 4 players correlating in the LU, and about 60% had 6 players correlating.   So for that 4 players, it could be QB + WR and then a separate RB + WR correlation, or it could be the 3 + 1 game stack.   Also this past week I think it was the FD Milly that had a WR + TE from the same team as a correlation (LV), so it doesn't always have to be opposing teams. 

 

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2 hours ago, FatNate said:

Do you often play a WR in the flex?

Nope, never have but Watkins fit the cost, adding another KC is never a bad thing and I think he’ll have a big day building off last week. Davis kind of similar, fit the cash I had and Brown got hurt early in the game last week and wasn’t the same after, Davis got a lot of targets so looking for him to have a big day too.

OR I could totally whiff and be ####ed from the snap :shrug: Haven’t been successful doing it with RB’s so figured what can it hurt.

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14 hours ago, beer 30 said:

Nope, never have but Watkins fit the cost, adding another KC is never a bad thing and I think he’ll have a big day building off last week. Davis kind of similar, fit the cash I had and Brown got hurt early in the game last week and wasn’t the same after, Davis got a lot of targets so looking for him to have a big day too.

OR I could totally whiff and be ####ed from the snap :shrug: Haven’t been successful doing it with RB’s so figured what can it hurt.

I was just curious.  On the main slate, I always go with 3 RBs.  I assume that is a popular build (and I believe statsically it is supported), so going with something other than 3 RBs is a way to differiante.

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1 minute ago, FatNate said:

I was just curious.  On the main slate, I always go with 3 RBs.  I assume that is a popular build (and I believe statsically it is supported), so going with something other than 3 RBs is a way to differiante.

Or a sure fired way to get your ### kicked :lmao:

I guess it gets to how you work into your LU. I assume we all start with a couple of targeted players we have to have. Then we move to complementary players that fit a price range and finally, fillers (Def/TE) with whatever you have left in the purse. The Flex position is usually one of those fillers for me because I focus too much salary on the "want to have" player groups. Running 3 solid RB's makes a lot of sense. I might go back and do a few LU's based around that to see how they compare :thumbup:

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Is the TB/Minn game really going to go under owned (Brady @ 2.2%, Jones @ 4.5%, Gronk @ 1.9% & JJ @ 6.7%)?  Has anyone every doubled back at the end of the week to compare FBG projected ownership to actual ownership?

Current Lineup:  Brady - R Jones/Gio/Ekeler - Ridley/Jefferson/Robinson - Gronk - Bengals

Projected ownership at 85% (please note with Julio out, I used his ownership % for Ridley).

It is not that I love this lineup, but it checks a lot of boxes:  high total game is keyed on, correlates in several spots, and very low ownership.

 

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On 12/9/2020 at 8:01 AM, FatNate said:

Last thing:  I will have some Dalton with Elliott/WR versus the Bengals this week.  I know the total is low, but I can not help myself.  I like the Red Rifle in his revenge game against a bad defense.  I also think Dallas D is so bad that it makes a few Bengals options as run backs.  I believe Mixon may return this week, which might make for an interesting options too.  

 

I like this game as well, but what if it's a revenge game for the Bengals D against a really bad QB? 

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24 minutes ago, TwinTurbo said:

I like this game as well, but what if it's a revenge game for the Bengals D against a really bad QB? 

I think the Bengals D is the perfect D for the Red Rifle.  Bengals get no pressure.  None.  He needs time to throw and will have it.  I expect CB Jackson to do well and reduce the production to which ever Cowboy WR he covers, but the other WR/TE, along with RB, will feast in the passing game.  I also think FS Bates might have 20 tackles, which brings me to my biggest concern -- Elliott getting all the touches and cutting into Andy's revenge!  The total is low, so I am sure the game will not get much attention, but I expect the game to go over.  I think the most popular build using pieces from this game will be Elliott with a cheap Cowboys D.  Give me the Cowboys 28 Bengals 20.

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4 hours ago, FatNate said:

Is the TB/Minn game really going to go under owned (Brady @ 2.2%, Jones @ 4.5%, Gronk @ 1.9% & JJ @ 6.7%)?  Has anyone every doubled back at the end of the week to compare FBG projected ownership to actual ownership?

Current Lineup:  Brady - R Jones/Gio/Ekeler - Ridley/Jefferson/Robinson - Gronk - Bengals

Projected ownership at 85% (please note with Julio out, I used his ownership % for Ridley).

It is not that I love this lineup, but it checks a lot of boxes:  high total game is keyed on, correlates in several spots, and very low ownership.

 

The RG projections are similar on the game,fwiw.  

I guess its probably because of the high ownership on Henry, Rodgers/Mahomes, Adams, and Kelce.  Can't pay for everything and these pieces aren't cheap.  

I keep leaning to this game, Tenn passing attack, and A.Jones as my main leverage areas.  

I am guessing most of my 13 teams will have at least 1 packer, 1 tenn wr, and a minn/tb correlation.  

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I made my Friday visit to the Smash % chart and the updated projected ownership.    Really weird week in that there didn't seem to be a lot of bad chalk on DK.  

A couple leverage spots that stood out were getting away from a Car WR with a similar priced WR and going to something like Akins instead of the chalky L.Thomas.  

 

Overall, what actually stood out was that if I looked at all the top % and build a LU from that it seems like the popular build is going High/Low with salaries.   So the top projected guys at their positions are:

Wilson, Mahomes, Ryan, Rodgers

Henry, McKissic, Ekeler, Gaskin

Adams, Samuel, Hill, R.Anderson

Kelce, Thomas

 

Anyway, what struck me is that leaves a lot of names out in the WR spot from that 6.5K - 8K range.   It also skips over the 6K RBs and a name like A.Jones at Rb.     So I think a handful of my LUs are just going to be going middle of the road and instead of going with an 8K and a 5WR look at two in the middle range for that 13-14K salary.  

Players that are underowned:  M.Thomas, Jefferson, Ridley, McLaurin, Evans, Lockett, AJ Brown.      Some of those would be pivots off chalky RB plays too, like Henry and McKissic

 

Finally, one name that really made me do a double take was Fournette.   Had him listed at the 9th most likely RB to smash, and his ownership was 1/6 of that smash %.  I guess he is the passing back for whatever reason, so I guess if you think that Minn could get ahead, I could see it.  Not sure if I will play him, but that was the only name that really made me scratch my head this week.  

 

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BTW - I just took a peek, and the names were basically identical on the FD chart.   About the only plays that it didn't seem to like at their ownership were Henry and Gaskin, and the names I mentioned above were the ones that stood out again with guys like T.Hill (qb), A.Jones, M.Thomas, Fournette, Akins, etc.. going underowned.  

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1 hour ago, FatNate said:

I am trying to tie Jax WR to Henry and TB WR to Brady in the same lineup. 
 

Evans & Collin Johnson OR Antonio Brown & Chark

 

Any thoughts..:what say you?

I know zip about Johnson, but I posted above that Evans leads in targets, air yards, and bigly in RZ targets.   I haven't double checked his injury yet though.  

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4 hours ago, FatNate said:

I am trying to tie Jax WR to Henry and TB WR to Brady in the same lineup. 
 

Evans & Collin Johnson OR Antonio Brown & Chark

 

Any thoughts..:what say you?

Evans for TB.  He may not get the yards, but he is likely to get the scores.  As for JAX, who knows, I like Chark's upside but there seems to be a connection between Glennon and Johnson.  Might choose based on what fits.

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I was listening to something and they talked about how much quicker the Lions are playing with the coaching change.  People are talking about A.Jones as leverage from Adams/Rodgers, but I am not staring at some Stafford/Jones/Hock stacks with all being 5% owned and cheaper.  Then throw in Adams...   :shrug:

Typical Saturday night when I have info overload and am having trouble deciding where to go.   I have 10 LUs in the $3 huge gpp, and then 3 in the $8 3max.   I would really like to make up my mind to do that with a focused 3 QBs.  

Right now I am trying to narrow down between Rodgers, Stafford, Brady, Cousins, Tannehill.    My cheap QBs and stacks I wrote down were Lock + Patrick, Dalton + Gallup, and Hurts + Ward.   Not sure if I can pull the trigger on any of those, but I usually at least write down some really cheap stacks because it's fun to jam a bunch of studs in there.  

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5 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

I was listening to something and they talked about how much quicker the Lions are playing with the coaching change.  People are talking about A.Jones as leverage from Adams/Rodgers, but I am not staring at some Stafford/Jones/Hock stacks with all being 5% owned and cheaper.  Then throw in Adams...   :shrug:

Typical Saturday night when I have info overload and am having trouble deciding where to go.   I have 10 LUs in the $3 huge gpp, and then 3 in the $8 3max.   I would really like to make up my mind to do that with a focused 3 QBs.  

Right now I am trying to narrow down between Rodgers, Stafford, Brady, Cousins, Tannehill.    My cheap QBs and stacks I wrote down were Lock + Patrick, Dalton + Gallup, and Hurts + Ward.   Not sure if I can pull the trigger on any of those, but I usually at least write down some really cheap stacks because it's fun to jam a bunch of studs in there.  

I know little to nothing about DK, but I am interested in Hurts and Dalton for FD.  I am not stacking Hurts with any Eagles.  Basically, banking on his running ability and cheap price, along with running it back with Kamara and/or Thomas. My strategy with Dalton is using Shultz.  TE always sucks and feels like I just get lucky when it hits for me, plus the Bengals suck against the TE. 

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6 hours ago, FatNate said:

I know little to nothing about DK, but I am interested in Hurts and Dalton for FD.  I am not stacking Hurts with any Eagles.  Basically, banking on his running ability and cheap price, along with running it back with Kamara and/or Thomas. My strategy with Dalton is using Shultz.  TE always sucks and feels like I just get lucky when it hits for me, plus the Bengals suck against the TE. 

Here what you are saying but that offense of Philly is offensive. Watched them a few times this year and the line is just terrible. Good luck :thumbup:

Took your advice and threw together a couple three RB lineups to see how they fair against my WR flex lineups. 

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This is the exact lineup I'm facing in one of my playoffs. When I saw it I said to my friend, I think you put your DK lineup in our matchup by mistake . Had a free 10 cent ticket so wtf.

Allen, Chubb, R Jones, Diggs, Beasley, G Davis, Fant,Slayton,Bears

Also have 4 25 cent lineups there using Herbert,Stafford,Dalton and Glennon.

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Alright - TRYING to focus most of my efforts on the high implied scoring teams, and looking at gpp idea for them or an opposing player runback.  

1.  GB:  A.Jones is now projecting as 5th highest RB.   Still playable, but you aren't getting leverage.   However, I did write down Lazard at 4%, and M.Jones/Hock at 4%.  Evidently people aren't bothering with Det runbacks according to ownership projections.  

2.  Seattle.   Not much here.   Jet WR as the 2nd most owned player?  No thanks.   Probably would just rather play it simple with Russ + WR and call it good.  Dissly saw a handful of targets last week, so maybe throw him in as a WTF option.  

3.  TB - HERE is where more low % options are - Cousins, Brady,  Evans, Gronk, R.Jones.      Looking at builds and ownership, it looks like a popular option is doing a Godwin/Thielen secondary stack is popular as these guys are approaching 10%.   I am thinking that stacking the Qbs with the WRs or doing something like R.Jones + Thielen would be an interesting gpp play.  

4.  Tenn.   Not super low ownership, but still think a Tannehill stack is good leverage off the 30% Henry LUs.  One pod mentioned J.Smith being healthier this week, and I wrote him down as that interesting 3rd stacking option.   Jax WRs are pretty low owned for comebacks too.  

5.  KC -  I guess if you wanted to fade the passing game and go with CEH is huge field gpps?  

6.  Indy -  nobody is ever owned here.  Taylor is 7% as a favorite and Jets scrubs looked studly vs. LV.  

 

Those were all the teams around that 28pt implied total on up.   I am going to start with these and see what I have left.   Like I said earlier, this also fits in a little bit with going that more middle of the road route - I might start with Taylor + R.Jones as RBs and look at the 7K WRs after that and see what stack fits with that.   

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14 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Some fun fades.  I think I have 0% Henry, Cook, and Ekeler.   

Ended up spreading out Qb for whatever reason.  4 Brady, 3 Tannehill, 3 Rodgers, 1 Wilson, 1 k.Murray, and 1 Hurts LU.  

I have 0 Cook, but lots of Henry and Ekeler.  I am most heavy on Brady with five lineups. 

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