Tenn/Jax
I think I will attack this game from the Jaguars side. Glennon with Robinson/Johnson and run back with Henry and/or Davis.
TB/Minn
I like the TB side, but I have no idea who to pair Brady with. I will probably try to go with the cheaper options. That would mean something like Brady with Brown and run back with Rudolph. Hard not to like several options in this one, but I am not sure I can afford to play enough combinations. It might be a great week to get Cook lower owned against a good defense.
KC/Mia
Mahommes with HIll/Kelce is obvious, along with the run back of Gaskin. Might be interesting to attack from the other side. Tua has several cheap WR options and I think they will be trailing most of the day.
Ind/LVR
I think the Colts are to good on defense for the Raiders. Several affordable options in this one and I also think it might be a high total game that goes under owned.
GB/Det
Rodgers with Jones/Adams is a great option, but expensive. I love Jones this week, again. Detroit has a few run back options, so I expect this to be a very popular option on the slate.
Alt/LAC
I think this will be the most popular game on the slate. Reasonably affordable with many options to spread the ownership, along with predictable volume. Ryan with Julio and a run back of Ekeler is what I like early in the week.
NO/Phi
I am not all that interested in the other side of this game, but the Saints have a very high team total. I am a sucker for a cheap athletic QB, but I am not sure the Eagles will maximize his skills, especially against a good D. I also think the Eagles have a good enough defense to give the Saints some trouble. It isn't that I am not interested in this one, but I need to look more at it.
Sea/NYJ
I have no interest in the Jets, not even with a run back. I love Russ in this one. Everyone attacks the Jets through the air and the Seahawks have the weapons. The hard part is making the other pieces fit around those expensive Seahawk options.
Please note it is early and I have not spent much time checking prices or looking for value. These are just some initial thoughts on the higher total games of the weeks.
Last thing: I will have some Dalton with Elliott/WR versus the Bengals this week. I know the total is low, but I can not help myself. I like the Red Rifle in his revenge game against a bad defense. I also think Dallas D is so bad that it makes a few Bengals options as run backs. I believe Mixon may return this week, which might make for an interesting options too.
TEN-JAX
I like your thinking on JAX. I think they can score points. Problem is, seems like every time I start someone other than Robinson I get burned. I just can’t trust JAX. Besides, I HATE Glennon, even from his college days.
On the TEN side, I look for TEN to go run heavy this week (i.e. a lot of Derrick Henry). However, I could see them airing it out as well. So take your pick. FWIW, apparently Davis and Brown get pretty much the same # of targets, but Davis is a lot cheaper.
TB-MINN
Again, I agree with you. TB is the way to go on this one. I know Brady tends to spread the ball around, but IMO he tends to lock in on Evans in the red zone. I would stack Gronk as well. He is getting more looks and it fills that pesky TE slot.
I doubt I will do much MIN. Tampa has a good defense and Cousins doesn’t throw a whole lot. I have no problems using Cook (though I will be underweight myself). Interesting fact: Cook and Thielen have accounted for 2 out every 3 offensive touchdowns (25 of 38)
KC / MIA
This is a game I will be underweight on. I will have the obligatory Mahomes/Hill/Kelce stack, but very few. Miami’s defense is solid, but I do not trust their offense. I think MIA keeps the scoring down on this one. Agree on Gaskins though. KC is vulnerable to the run and Gaskins’ volume and price makes him a core play for me.
IND / LV
This is a tough game for me. I like the over/under and I like the spread. Trouble is, there is no way to stack IND. (I guess you could but you would be using a lot of lineups). Vegas can be up and down and I am concerned that they will have trouble with the IND D. I just don’t trust them this week. However, I do like Johnathan Taylor as a nice pivot in this one.
GB / DET
OK, I am ALL OVER this one. 55 O/U, though the spread is a little much. I will be heavy on Rodgers and Adams. I will also have plenty of Lazard and Valdez-Scantling as well. Probably not enough Tonyan (for reasons I explain below), but I will live with it. I also like AJones, but I doubt I will be using much of him; I just hope he doesn’t burn me. I realize this is pretty much chalk; but I believe chalk is chalk for a reason, I’ll find other places to pivot.
On the DET side of things, I will be using Hockenstein as a run-back. Again good volume and fills a troubling position. I will also include a few Stafford/Hockenstein/WR stacks just to get away from the chalk.
ATL/LAC
I can see your thinking about this game. Nice tight game, mediocre to bad defenses, easy stacks. Personally, though, I’m just not too excited about this one. Ryan and Julio is a great combo as is Herbert and Allen. I just don’t see it living up to expectations. Atlanta’s defense while towards the bottom is improving. LAC has shown it can limit opponents at times. I’m not going to be doing much with this one; I could be wrong, but I will live with it. That said, this could be a great contrarian pick.
NO/Phi
This is another game I just cannot get excited about. I don’t like Taysom at QB, just not enough upside. He is passing more which is a plus, but I’m still not ready to go that route. Hill has killed Kamara’s value, although it is good to see Michael Thomas getting more looks; he may be viable this week. I am intrigued by Jalen Hurts, but I cannot see using him against the Saints.
Sea/NYJ
OK this game screams a SEA stack. Personally, I saying “not so fast.” Seattle’s offense has been trending down the last few weeks and I don’t necessarily see a turnaround coming. Even if the Seattle offense does get right against the Jets, they are likely going to be up big and on cruise control for much of the game limiting its upside. I will have a few Russ/Metcalf/Lockett stacks, but not as many as one would expect.
As for New York, I will DEFINITELY be running back with J Crowder. Darnold seems to LOVE him and if (as expected) NY is behind early, they will be chucking the ball a lot. I could even see a contrarian stack of Darnold/Crowder/Perriman, but I am not going overboard.
Dal/Cin
You touched on this one, but I would like to expand. This game, admittedly, is not a great one for stacking. Cincy is terrible and there are no real good options, even against the horrid Dallas defense. On the other side of the ball, Dallas has struggled without Dak, so I can see why people do not expect a lot from them. Still, I like the Dalton revenge angle; though I personally wouldn’t stack it myself. I do like, though, Ezekiel Elliot. He has a great matchup and potentially heavy usage. If he is to do anything this year, this is the game to do it. At $7700, with his upside, I am in and in big.
DEN/CAR
I don’t if you deliberately left this one off or not. I understand – nothing to see here. I’m not stacking either team, no upside. Still, do not forget McCaffery is back. I will be using him when possible, but he will not be a priority. On the other side, I do like Melvin Gordon. I think he can get some yards and TDs. I think he could be a great pivot.