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Talk of Texas Secesssion (1 Viewer)

If Texas were to secede, how would they fare as their own country?

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Joe Bryant

Joe Bryant

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Texas GOP chair floats secession for 'law-abiding states' after Supreme Court defeat

The chairman of the Texas Republican Party appeared to float secession after the Supreme Court shot down a lawsuit led by the Lone Star State seeking to overturn the results of the presidential election.

Texas GOP Chairman Allen West rebuked the high court in a statement, saying that "law-abiding states" should "form a Union" after the decision throwing out the lawsuit from Texas.
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The remark drew swift condemnation from both parties.

“I believe @TexasGOP should immediately retract this, apologize, and fire Allen West and anyone else associated with this. My guy Abraham Lincoln and the Union soldiers already told you no,” GOP Rep. Adam Kinzinger (Ill.), a frequent Trump critic, tweeted.
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The Supreme Court's ruling marked the latest and most grave defeat yet for the legal campaign by the president and his allies to overturn Biden's win. The Electoral College will vote Monday to formally elect Biden.

Trump and his allies in Congress have repeatedly touted claims that widespread voter fraud and irregularities cost the president reelection, though their lawsuits have been shot down for lack of evidence or standing.
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I grew up in Texas. I'm a Texas A&M alum. Much of my family still lives there. I know Texas well and I consider it my adopted second home. For my entire life, there's been a generally understood wink wink joke from many Texans that they'd be just fine as their own country. I've traveled most of the US and few states feel this way. It's extremely common in Texas to see a single Texas flag flown without a US flag. It's generally understood if you're a "True Texan", if you do fly a US flag, it's flown on a separate flag pole. And there's always the assumption the US flag is an inch or two lower than the Texas flag. It's just how they roll. 

With that said, I've never in my long experience with Texans ever had the impression that even a small part of the population would move toward actual secession. Especially over something like a presidential election where Joe Biden received 5.3 million votes compared to Donald Trump's 5.9 million votes. 

But let's just for the sake of hypothetical argument say Texas did have a majority of their people want to secede. What should be the response then of the United States?

And then a separate question, assuming the US did peacefully allow Texas to secede, how would Texas fare as its own country?

 
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Sea Duck said:
I don't have a problem letting a state leave the union as long as they follow all of the legal procedures to do so.

The United States should respond by erecting a security perimeter around the state, cutting off funds, and charging tariffs on any products coming in or out.
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Thanks. 

Do you legalguys know how this works? What would the procedure be if Texas were to actually peacefully ask to leave the US?

Can it be like Brexit?

 
I will add this, though: Texas blew their chance to secede 10 years ago when they were still deep red. They're much more cosmopolitan now and they'd never get a majority of citizens to vote for secession.

 
Sea Duck said:
I will add this, though: Texas blew their chance to secede 10 years ago when they were still deep red. They're much more cosmopolitan now and they'd never get a majority of citizens to vote for secession.
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Yes. It seems ridiculous to me to even talk about secession when Joe Biden received 5.3 million votes compared to Donald Trump's 5.9 million votes. 

I think making BBQ illegal would have a better chance of rallying the state.

But let's just play along with the hypothetical. How would it even work? Have a statewide vote? Simple majority wins? Super majority? Are there even rules in place for a state like this?

Again, I guess I'd look to Brexit, which I know very little about. How did it work for them?

 
Joe Bryant said:
Sea Duck said:
I don't have a problem letting a state leave the union as long as they follow all of the legal procedures to do so.

The United States should respond by erecting a security perimeter around the state, cutting off funds, and charging tariffs on any products coming in or out.
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Thanks. 

Do you legalguys know how this works? What would the procedure be if Texas were to actually peacefully ask to leave the US?

Can it be like Brexit?
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The EU was formed on the pretext that countries could leave if they wanted; the US Constitution does not contain similar parameters for exiting.

I don't know all the legal details, but it does seem like the bare minimum requirement would be similar to the requirement to join the union in the first place: a majority vote by the state itself, plus a majority vote by both houses of Congress.

 
For how the State would fare, my first thought on this is Rhett Butler in the classic scene from Gone With The Wind.

All the Southern guys are hyping themselves up and Butler tells them "All you've got is Cotton, Slaves and Arrogance". Fantastic scene here.

Texas is a little more interesting though. 

Tons of natural resources. 

Ports.

Significant infrastructure.

Booming economy.

I don't think it's a certainty they could make it. I will say I think they'd be far and away the US State that could do it though if any of them could. 

 
Rush Limbaugh apparently made some waves recently talking on secession. 

It's good to get the full picture of what he said: https://www.mediamatters.org/rush-limbaugh/rush-limbaugh-there-cannot-be-peaceful-coexistence-between-liberals-and-conservatives

"I actually think think we're trending toward secession. I see more and more people asking, "what do we have in common with the people that live in New York. What is there that makes us believe there is enough of us there to even have a chance at winning NY? Especially if we're talking about votes"

I see a lot of bloggers I can't think of names, a lot of bloggers have written extensively about how distanced and separated and much more separated our culture is becoming politically. And that it can't go on this way. That there cannot be a peaceful coexistence of two completely different theories of life. Theories of government theories of how we manage our affairs. We can't be in this dire a conflict without something giving somewhere along the way. And... I know that there's a sizable and growing sentiment of people that believe that is where we're headed whether we want to or not. Whether we want to go there or not.

I myself haven't made up my mind. I still haven't given up the idea that we are the majority and all we have to do is find a way to unite and win. And our problem is the fact there are so many RINOs and so many Republicans in the Washington establishment who'll do anything to maintain their membership in the establishment because of the perks and the opportunities that are presented to their kids and so forth. 
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Not surprisingly, this took. Limbaugh quickly clarified what he said. That was already pretty clear:

Rush Limbaugh on Thursday walked back his comments on the inability for the American left and right to co-exist and whether the disagreement could lead to secession.

“I simply referenced what I have seen other people say about how we are incompatible, as currently divided, and that secession is something that people are speculating about,” said the conservative radio host.

He went on, “I am not advocating it, have not advocated, never have advocated it, and probably wouldn’t. That’s not something — 32 years — that’s not the way I’ve decided to go about handling disagreements with people on the left.”
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The U.S. should be open to listening to offers from Texas about secession. But unless Texas is willing to pay its fair share of the national debt, the discussion is a non-starter and using military force to prevent secession is appropriate.

How Texas would fare as its own country would largely depend on the terms of secession.

 
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Maurile Tremblay said:
The U.S. should be open to listening to offers from Texas about secession. But unless Texas is willing to pay its fair share of the national debt, the discussion is a non-starter and using military force preventing secession is appropriate.

How Texas would fare as its own country would largely depend on the terms of secession.
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Thanks Maurile. 

I agree on how they'd fare being dependent on the terms. Assume it was fair for both sides. No war. Texas pays paid or owed a reasonable part of their debt to the US. Granted, that's a nearly impossible thing to figure. But big picture, assuming a relatively fair break, how do you think they'd do?

 
Joe Bryant said:
I agree on how they'd fare being dependent on the terms. Assume it was fair for both sides. No war. Texas pays paid or owed a reasonable part of their debt to the US. Granted, that's a nearly impossible thing to figure. But big picture, assuming a relatively fair break, how do you think they'd do?
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From that point, I think it depends entirely on what form of government they choose. If Texas establishes a stable constitutional democracy with robust individual rights, etc., it would do quite well -- but if that's the plan, why secede in the first place?

If the secessionist movement is driven by the Texas GOP and they set up the kind of government that Trump supporters seem to favor at the moment, I think they'd end up much like Turkey or Brazil.

 
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Joe Bryant said:
Thanks Maurile. 

I agree on how they'd fare being dependent on the terms. Assume it was fair for both sides. No war. Texas pays paid or owed a reasonable part of their debt to the US. Granted, that's a nearly impossible thing to figure. But big picture, assuming a relatively fair break, how do you think they'd do?
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In theory, they'd have the potential to do well.  They have a lot of things that are necessary.  Their population is fairly educated, they have a significant land mass with ports and natural resources, including some farmland, a very diverse economy.  They'd also share a border of two non hostile countries so there wouldn't be that stress on a military or government the way some countries are geographically disadvantaged.  The downside is starting from square one, but as someone else mentioned they'd have as good of a shot as any state we have on their own.

 
Could the move liberal areas seceded from Texas? Like Berlin with protection provided by the US. 

 
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I think this would be a horrible idea for TX and the US.   just as an example,  we just got out of hurricane season down here.    texas gets hit quite often and at times needs federal aid, a lot of it.

 
Joe Bryant said:
Texas GOP chair floats secession for 'law-abiding states' after Supreme Court defeat

I grew up in Texas. I'm a Texas A&M alum. Much of my family still lives there. I know Texas well and I consider it my adopted second home. For my entire life, there's been a generally understood wink wink joke from many Texans that they'd be just fine as their own country. I've traveled most of the US and few states feel this way. It's extremely common in Texas to see a single Texas flag flown without a US flag. It's generally understood if you're a "True Texan", if you do fly a US flag, it's flown on a separate flag pole. And there's always the assumption the US flag is an inch or two lower than the Texas flag. It's just how they roll. 

With that said, I've never in my long experience with Texans ever had the impression that even a small part of the population would move toward actual secession. Especially over something like a presidential election where Joe Biden received 5.3 million votes compared to Donald Trump's 5.9 million votes. 

But let's just for the sake of hypothetical argument say Texas did have a majority of their people want to secede. What should be the response then of the United States?

And then a separate question, assuming the US did peacefully allow Texas to secede, how would Texas fare as its own country?
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It wouldn’t be peaceful. It would be bloody and violent.  The idea of there being a “peaceful secession” is a non-starter.

 
shader said:
It wouldn’t be peaceful. It would be bloody and violent.  The idea of there being a “peaceful secession” is a non-starter.
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Do you think there's the option of seceding without blood and violence?

If not, why not?

And how did Brexit do it?

 
kodycutter said:
I think this would be a horrible idea for TX and the US.   just as an example,  we just got out of hurricane season down here.    texas gets hit quite often and at times needs federal aid, a lot of it.
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That kind of thing would be a huge part of the discussion. 

 
Joe Bryant said:
Do you think there's the option of seceding without blood and violence?

If not, why not?

And how did Brexit do it?
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No.

For the same reason we fought the Civil War.

Nothing remotely close to the same thing. Britain is still its own country as are the other members of the European Union. 

 
I think this is a fantasy, but should it come to that, I can't imagine TX would do this alone.  Louisiana, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Mississippi, etc. would all likely look to join.

 
How shameful that this is even a topic but here we are. The Texas GOP communication can't really be ignored. Still, the communication is lazy (IMO) and I'm confident that nobody is going anywhere once any honest thought of secession and all it brings is considered. These last 5 weeks have been telling. I'm confused and a bit angry that there seems to be many who are not real supporters of democracy. At the end of the day though I'm actually really proud that our democracy is taking a lengthy stress test and is performing admirably well. Good design, no doubt. 

 
Juxtatarot said:
It would be an absolute disaster for Texas. They would end up asking to rejoin in a few years.
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Can you elaborate on why?

I know it's pure hypothetical, but for the sake of argument, assume it was a peaceful break with reasonable terms for both sides. 

Basically, could Texas make it as a country? 

 
I go back to the bigger question: Why secede?

Because President Trump lost the election? In a state where Joe Biden received 5.3 million votes compared to Donald Trump's 5.9 million votes?

I can't think of many reasons why a state would want to secede.

But THAT seems like a ridiculous reason. 

 
Joe Bryant said:
Can you elaborate on why?

I know it's pure hypothetical, but for the sake of argument, assume it was a peaceful break with reasonable terms for both sides. 

Basically, could Texas make it as a country? 
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Depends on how generous and forgiving the US would be towards them. 

 
Joe Bryant said:
I go back to the bigger question: Why secede?

Because President Trump lost the election? In a state where Joe Biden received 5.3 million votes compared to Donald Trump's 5.9 million votes?

I can't think of many reasons why a state would want to secede.

But THAT seems like a ridiculous reason. 
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Which is why it's rhetoric and political theater, not something that will actually happen.

I agree with @Sea Duck - if a state wants to secede, they should be allowed but they should be treated like every other country in terms of funding, tariffs, etc. Can't have this both ways.

 
Stompin' Tom Connors said:
Which is why it's rhetoric and political theater, not something that will actually happen.

I agree with @Sea Duck - if a state wants to secede, they should be allowed but they should be treated like every other country in terms of funding, tariffs, etc. Can't have this both ways.
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Thanks. Seems like the vast majority of folks so far disagree that a state should be allowed to secede. Can you elaborate on why you think they should be allowed to? 

 
Joe Bryant said:
That's a fair discussion. For many of the same reasons. Natural resources, ports, people and such.

Do you think California could make it as their own country?

Could Texas?
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California as a sovereign nation would have the world's 5th biggest economy. 

Texas would have the 10th.

I don't think it's possible to know if that GDP would persist if either became their own country as so much of it is tied to the US economy.

Could they make it? Sure -- plenty of countries exist with poor economies. I don't think it's a good idea for them or the US, but I do think if that's the way that the people of these states want to go that they should be forcibly prevented to do so.

My only point is that Texas is not far and away the best state positioned to do so.

 
we been rehearsing tyranny for most of a generation now. starting to appear that red v blue would be better contested as separate entities. see all y'all, Confederate States of America -

no bomb, btw

 
Stompin' Tom Connors said:
Joe Bryant said:
I don't think it's a certainty they could make it. I will say I think they'd be far and away the US State that could do it though if any of them could. 
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Um, no. That would be California.
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Yeah, I don't think Texas would be in the top-5 of a list of states most able to secede successfully.

There is not a dominant political ideology.  The population is fairly diverse - which cuts both ways, but ultimately makes it difficult to reach consensus needed to make big moves.  There would be little benefit to the US maintaining a military presence - i.e. leasing all that land (like they would in Hawaii)

A state like Maine could leave, and be annexed by Canada, but I suspect Texas has no interest in joining Mexico.

 
Joe Bryant said:
 Can you elaborate on why you think they should be allowed to? 
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I think this is all a moot point under the Supremacy Clause of the Constitution. The legality of a state seceding from the union is highly problematic. While ultimately not specifically prohibited by the Constitution, there is legal precedence that secession is unconstitutional (Texas v. White - though that same ruling recognized possibility through consent of the federal government).

There is also an inherent problem any country would have if they allowed their states/provinces/territories to be able to secede willy-nilly, which erodes not just the power of the federal government but a whole host of economic, social, domestic, legal, and other issues.

Which is why I think this is all unrealistic sabre rattling.

But stripped away of all real world issues why this is both unrealistic and a very bad idea for both Texas and the US, bottom line is that that if a populace in good faith wants to leave, and fair democratic process is carried out to determine that's the will of the people, then I don't see the argument of why that populace should be compelled to remain with a central government that doesn't represent their needs. 

While used to support the South's secession (which was also a terrible idea that led to one of the most damaging civil wars in history), the words of what the Dubuque Herald wrote in November 1860 ring true to me:

There is a natural right, which is reserved by all men, and which cannot be given to any Government, and no Government can take it away. It is the natural right of a people to form a Government for their mutual protection, for the promotion of their mutual welfare, and for such other purposes as they may deem most conducive to their mutual happiness and prosperity; but if for any cause the Government so formed should become inimical to the rights and interests of the people, instead of affording protection to their persons and property, and securing the happiness and prosperity, to attain which it was established, it is the natural right of the people to change the Government regardless of Constitutions.
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In terms of how this would work in real life? Totally different story. It would be argued that Texas's happiness, prosperity, and protection of their rights would be way better served under their current constitution and federal alignment.

 
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Joe Bryant said:
Do you think there's the option of seceding without blood and violence?

If not, why not?

And how did Brexit do it?
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England is a country.  The analogy isn’t perfect but it’s more akin to the USA leaving the UN.

At a BARE MINIMUM you’d have major civil disorder on the streets of Texas.  Saying TX is a red state is a gross over-simplification. There are millions of democrats who would be irate. The civil disobedience would be through the roof on an internal level alone.  Millions in the state would show no allegiance to the new TX government. 

Think of what happened in the summer with BLM and multiply it by 100.

That's not even factoring in the unreal chaos it would kick off in the rest of the south with the right and people that want their state to join. 
 

It would get really bad. The markets would absolutely tank, jobs would be lost (permanently) at a degree none of us have ever seen, which would further add fuel to the fire.

Total chaos

 
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shader said:
Britain is a country.  The analogy isn’t perfect but it’s more akin to the USA leaving the UN.

At a BARE MINIMUM you’d have major civil disorder on the streets of Texas.  Saying TX is a red state is a gross over-simplification. There are millions of democrats who would be irate. The civil disobedience would be through the roof on an internal level alone.  Millions in the state would show no allegiance to the new TX government. 

Think of what happened in the summer with BLM and multiply it by 100.

That's not even factoring in the unreal chaos it would kick off in the rest of the south with the right and people that want their state to join. 
 

It would get really bad. The markets would absolutely tank, jobs would be lost (permanently) at a degree none of us have ever seen, which would further add fuel to the fire.

Total chaos
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Agree with all this.  Then there are international ramifications.  I don't think either "side" is a big fan of China and with any split, China stands to gain even more.  Take either California or Texas, they rank 1 and 2 of active military personnel.  Even on a per capita basis, last I saw Texas ranked 4th.  So you would lose trained military folks and a dwindling military to counterbalance an ever more threatening Chinese military.

 
Agreed for sure I think this is all just sabre rattling. All my conservative friends think it's ridiculous. 

 
It's a ridiculous proposition in 2020 or 2021.  Wait until you see the craziness in store for us in 2024...i mean, does anybody think things are getting better?  2028? 2032?...succession may very well be a legitimate talking point within 20 years.

 
Shula-holic said:
Agree with all this.  Then there are international ramifications.  I don't think either "side" is a big fan of China and with any split, China stands to gain even more.  Take either California or Texas, they rank 1 and 2 of active military personnel.  Even on a per capita basis, last I saw Texas ranked 4th.  So you would lose trained military folks and a dwindling military to counterbalance an ever more threatening Chinese military.
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That assumes that those Texans in the military remained Texans, and not Americans.  I'd bet at least half would migrate to the US prior to partition.

And - a land force is not really all that necessary.  China is not invading the US.  And everyone know one fo the worlds biggest blunders is to get involved in a land war in Asia.

 
moleculo said:
It's a ridiculous proposition in 2020 or 2021.  Wait until you see the craziness in store for us in 2024...i mean, does anybody think things are getting better?  2028? 2032?...succession may very well be a legitimate talking point within 20 years.
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Agreed, we are just getting started

 
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moleculo said:
It's a ridiculous proposition in 2020 or 2021.  Wait until you see the craziness in store for us in 2024...i mean, does anybody think things are getting better?  2028? 2032?
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I am encouraged by the optimism expressed in this post. You really think we'll make it to 2032?

 
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