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Hou  22.75  @  Ind  29.75  Total  52.5

TB  28  @  Atl  23  Total  51

NE  19.75  @  Mia  21.75  Total  41.5

Sea  24.5  @  Was  19.5  Total  44

Chi  21.25  @  Min  24.75  Total  46

Jax  16.5  @  Bal  29.5  Total  46

SF  24  @  Dal  21.5  Total  45.5

NYJ  14  @  LAR  30.5  Total  44.5

Phi  21  @  Ari  27.5  Total  48.5

KC  27.5  @  NO  24  Total  51.5

Det  20.5  @  Ten  31  Total  51.5

Edited by FatNate
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Is it wrong wanting to go back to Brady again this week?  Too early to know ownership numbers, but I am betting on it being 5% or less.  I like with Brown, making the assumption that he eventually gets one TD. It’s early and done almost no research, but this was a quick impression. 

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9 hours ago, FatNate said:

Is it wrong wanting to go back to Brady again this week?  Too early to know ownership numbers, but I am betting on it being 5% or less.  I like with Brown, making the assumption that he eventually gets one TD. It’s early and done almost no research, but this was a quick impression. 

I was thinking today that I have grown tired of rostering him this week, so I am guess he pulls a D.Carr this week and destroys.  :lol:  

TB/Atl is the fastest game too.  Others from the high total games were Det/Tenn and Philly/Az that were on the pace up chart.   Also LaR and Jets.  

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6 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

My initial gpp has Hurts by himself because he is cheap, then correlating other spots.  

I also like the idea of going with a couple players that sucked for us last week- marvin Jones + c. Davis.  

My initial cash line up has Hurts as well for the same reason.  I can't imagine I will keep him.  $200 more gets me to Rivers who I feel a little safer with for cash.  But that means I need to find $200...

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46 minutes ago, Galileo said:

My initial cash line up has Hurts as well for the same reason.  I can't imagine I will keep him.  $200 more gets me to Rivers who I feel a little safer with for cash.  But that means I need to find $200...

Wouldn't he technically have a higher floor due to his rushing? 

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7 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

Wouldn't he technically have a higher floor due to his rushing? 

Maybe.  In general I get what you are saying, but the NO defense doesn't give up much on the ground.  To me Hurts is still too much of an unknown and I worry about that offense scoring points.  Rivers has been steady Eddie.  I think Rivers offers a higher floor with his consistency, while Hurts offers more upside.  They scored about the same with Rivers Hurts rushing for 100 yds.  I don't see him doing that this week.

 

ETA...boy, I am all messed up.  I thought Hurts was playing New Orleans for some reason, and they just played...I said Rivers rushed for 100 yds :lmao:WTF...disregard most everything I said.   I need a drink.

Edited by Galileo
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Taking a look at the matchups this week in DFS.  (Part I)

 

KC@NO   (Spread: NO+3 O/U: 51.5)

Mahomes, Hill, Kelce, and a bunch of value plays, this is about as simple as it gets.  NO has a good defense, but it will be difficult to slow KC on a fast track. If you want to play it safe, this is the way to go.

On the other side, NO with Taysom Hill doesn’t really excite me. They will likely be playing from behind and I just don’t trust Hill in the passing game.  Assuming NO does throw, Michael Thomas is the obvious runback. KC is vulnerable to the run though, and Alvin Kamara has found his place with Hill. I like Kamara in this game.

 

Det@Tenn (Tenn -10.5 O/U: 51.5)

Another high scoring game, but the spread is troubling.  This one screams a big game for Derrick Henry and I will be building around him in a lot of lineups. Tennessee has proven capable throwing the ball, but will they need to? I doubt it.  AJ Brown could have a good day, but I don’t think I can justify his price ($8300).  Corey Davis would be a better option at $6800. I am just concerned about the volume.

Detroit is going to struggle on offense. Stafford is hurt and Daniels is so-so.  I like the Tenn defense as a value play this week. Possible runbacks for Detroit are D’Andre Swift and Danny Amendola. Amendola makes a good pivot, and at $5300 he clears room for the higher end plays.

 

Hou@Ind (Ind -7 O/U: 51)

OK, another high scoring game involving the Colts. The trouble is, Indianapolis is a balanced offense with multiple scoring options.  TY Hilton has shown that he could be the WR1 in this offense and at $6800 is worth considering. But, Indy also likes the running backs, especially in the red zone; this makes Johnathan Taylor an interesting option. Not sure which way to go on this one.  Given the high implied total for Indy (29), I like Michael Pittman ($5500) as a value play this week.

Houston will have Brandon Cooks back and that will help. But Indy is the league’s best secondary and could be a problem in the passing game.  Watson should be able to get his points; but with no real options to throw to, it would be hard to justify using him. David Johnson ($5900) should be back and could be an option, but he has not shown much and the game script likely would not favor him.

 

TB@ATL (Atl -5.5 O/U: 50.5)

Now this is a game with a lot of potential.  Good scoring, decent line, I like this one.  How to stack Brady, though? Even though Tampa does spread the ball around, when it is money time it is Evans time. Adding Gronk fills the TE slot at a reasonable price ($6300). Jones is out for this game so Leonard Fournette will be the featured back, but he should have a tough time against a solid Atlanta run defense.

The question for Atlanta is ‘Will Julio play?’ Atlanta is a much better offense on the field with him in the lineup. Calvin Ridley is a great runback option or even a stand-alone choice.  I don’t trust Ryan against the Tampa D, so I doubt I will do any ATL stacks.  If Julio does not play, Russell Gage may be an interesting option at $5700.

 

Summary

So, looking at the high-scoring games, I love a Henry/TEN mini stack.  KC/NO is the best matchup so I likely will do the obligatory KC stack. I personally am not a fan of Brady, but this is about as good a game to get for him, so I will likely throw a TB stack in and see what happens. I doubt I will stack the HOU/IND game, but I will try to find room for players like Taylor, Hilton, and Pittman.

 

I will have more on the rest of the games later.

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Hated the LA v LV matchup last night, submitted a couple LU's and didn't real care much. Carr gets hurt early, load up on 2nd half LU's w/Mariotta which allowed you to put almost any high point getting in a LU and cashed in :thumbup: Turned into a fun game to watch.

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2 hours ago, beer 30 said:

Hated the LA v LV matchup last night, submitted a couple LU's and didn't real care much. Carr gets hurt early, load up on 2nd half LU's w/Mariotta which allowed you to put almost any high point getting in a LU and cashed in :thumbup: Turned into a fun game to watch.

I doubled up with my entry, but I never thought about playing the second half.  Nice work!

Edited by FatNate
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My thoughts on week 15 DFS matchups (Part II):

These games do not necessarily have the flash of the others, but I can see some good plays in these.

Phi@Ari (Spread: Ari -6  O/U:49)

As the week goes on, I am liking this game more and more.  A lot of people like Hurts and for good reason.  He is relatively cheap ($6900) and his ability to run gives him a solid floor. Trouble is, there are no good choices in the Philly passing game.  If I would go with anyone, I think I would choose Greg Ward.  Probably won’t get a whole lot from him, but at $4800, it won’t take much.  Miles Sanders is another interesting option.  He is coming on and at $6900 is not outrageously expensive.  He has the ability; I am just concerned about touches.

While plenty of people like the Philly angle, I am liking Arizona more and more. Philly made Taysom Hill into a viable QB, imagine what a real QB could do.  That is why I am going big on Kyler Murray.  Murray has the running game you want from a QB plus he has DeAndre Hopkins.  Philly’s defense is good, but their secondary is banged up. Plenty of opportunity for arguably the best WR in the NFL.  Now Murray and Hopkins don’t come cheap so you likely would have to find some value elsewhere.  You could run back with Ward (see above), or add perhaps Dan Arnold ($5100) at TE.  He has a receiving TD in his last two games and is becoming more of a threat in the passing game.  A possibility should you choose to punt at TE.

Jax@Balt (Balt: -13  O/U:47.5)

This game is all about Lamar. Baltimore loves to run the ball and against Jacksonville they should have plenty of opportunity.  Combine that with the fact that Jacksonville will be hard pressed to score, do not expect Baltimore to air it out much.  Now figuring out the Baltimore running game could be a challenge; I like JK Dobbins ($5900), but I could see Gus Edwards ($5500) as an option as well. If you are willing to pay up at defense ($4800), BALT could get you good value at the position. If you must stack this game, Mark Andrews is the obvious choice with Willie Snead ($5400) as a nice pivot.

Chi@Minn (Minn -3 O/U:47)

I am not quite sure how to approach this game.  Minnesota is not that good on defense, but I don’t yet fully trust the Chicago offense.  I do like Allen Robinson ($7300) and David Montgomery ($7300), but I am not sure I am willing to trust them at their prices with other good options available.

Meanwhile, Dalvin Cook is a stud but he has a tough matchup against that Chicago D.  The same could be said for Thielen as well.  I think they will do OK, but I will be fading these two this week.

SF@Dal (Dal +2.5 O/U:45)

There are a few good options in this one, but I doubt I will be stacking this game.  Brandon Aiyuk ($6900) is an interesting play against the woeful Dallas defense. Other possibilities are Jeff Wilson ($5900) if Mostert cannot go, and Jordan Reed ($5100) as value plays. I wouldn’t put too much into these choices, but they are worth exposure in a few lineups.

I cannot get excited about the Dallas offense, but I would be hard to totally eliminate Elliott, Cooper, and Lamb.  I would just limit my exposure.

Sea@Wash (Wash 5.5  O/U:44.5)

It hard to totally ignore Russell Wilson and DK Metcalf, but the Seattle offense has not been the same in the second half of the season.  Considering this is a tough matchup against Washington, I will be limiting my exposure on this one.

Washington is not much on offense, especially with Gibson likely out.  But I do like Terry McLauren ($6900) against a bad Seattle secondary.

NYJ@LAR (LAR -17 O/U:43.5)

This one is interesting.  It has one of the lowest totals with a huge spread.  The 30 point implied total for the Rams begs for play.  Cam Akers ($6700) has been getting a lot of hype this week and he has a good matchup. I am not sold on him, however. The Jets front seven is good; their secondary is horrible.  That favors the passing game but neither Woods or Kupp have stood out this season so I doubt I will invest too heavily in them.  Plus, I think the Rams defense is likely to put up as many points as the offense, but at $5000 I will likely choose cheaper options.

NE@Mia (Mia -2  O/U:41)

Speaking of defense, what do you get when a poor offense meets a solid defense? Not many fantasy points. NE has struggled on offense this year and I don’t think that will change this week against a solid Miami D. 

On the other side of the ball, Miami is banged up and could have trouble this week. Plus, Bellicheck is legendary against rookie QBs. I think I’m skipping Miami as well.  I do like the NE defense though.  Last time they faced a rookie QB they put up 28 points, but at $4100 I will have to work to fit them in.

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Update (KC@NO):

Just read Brees is back for NO (sorry haven't been following as close as I should).  This changes everything for me. Also, Thomas is out. Kamara gets a HUGE upgrade and Cook gets a small bump.  But the one I like the most is Treyquan Smith.  I feel a lot more comfortable with Brees throwing him the ball than Hill.  At $5000, he can give you a nice ceiling for a low price, just the thing to break open a GPP.

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Work and family have been busy this week.  I hope to be able to provide some thoughts later, but I am not confident I will have time.  I do think LoneWolf hit on a lot of good info, so thanks for that!  I am playing the two game slate today with a complete fade of Adams and Diggs, as my way to differentiate, in my single lineup for a large GPP contest.

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I like a lot of chalk this week, so I am really staring at the pivots/leverage spots.  

The RBs that stood out for matchups were Henry, Kamara, Montgomery, Cook, J.Robinson, Taylor.     

So there is a ton of pivots right there with Kamara being projected as top % owned, so Montgomery/Robinson/Taylor are 1/4 owned vs. him.  

 

The other thing I really don't like is chalky cheap TEs.  Position is so volatile.   I really like Irv Smith as a gpp pivot on the other side of chalky Kmet.  

Otherwise looking to get a low % DT like Wash, SF, Mia, NE or Indy for my low owned play.  

 

I think I have 13 LUs saved on Dk, and first up will be starting with Kamara/Henry and seeing what I can build with that.  

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7 hours ago, FatNate said:

Current Lineup:

Hurt - Kamara/Henry/Akers - Gage/T Smith/Kirk - Kelce - Titans 

This is basically what I am trying.  I did a handful of lineups with Hurts, Henry, Cook, and Kamara.  Then some with 2of those rbs and Kelce.    

Just doing  wtf 3 cheap WR and cheap Te lineups using guys like Gallup, T.Smith, Reager, goedert, kmet, Irvine Smith, etc.. 

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1 hour ago, FatNate said:

Anyone have a big week?

80 in and 120 out for me.

I built mostly around Jackson and Hurts, so that helped.

My best was 167-pts.

Not a great Sunday, but still managed to end up in the black.  I missed badly on my dart throws in the league. My Lamar lineups just missed cashing. Had enough KC lineups to cover.  Best lineup (166.4) featured Kyler and DeAndre running back with Ward (15.2) plus Pollard.

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Got smoked in cash this week- didn't use Hurts or Pollard and cash lines were 13-18 points higher than gpp lines . Cashed for $3 in a gpp to prevent a total loss. $13 in $3 out.

Not sure how I got it but have a $15 DK ticket for showdown tonight. Going Pitt D at Capt,both QBs, both K and D Johnson.

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2 hours ago, beer 30 said:

Nice win by your boys last night @FatNate. Took Cincy and the points for a nice score to finish out a profitable weekend 👍🏻

Congrats on the good week.  I am shocked by the fire they played with.  I did not bet or play the single gamer last night.  Sooooo, I feel like a winner this morning, because I would have been on the wrong side of both!

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