My thoughts on the Week 16 Saturday Slate
Tampa@Det (Det: +9.5 O/U:54)
Ok, this one has the highest O.U, but the spread is 9.5 points. Tampa should run away with this one. For that reason, I am Liking Leonard Fournette especially if Ronald Jones is out. I think given the option, Tampa will run first and use the play action to strike deep. I could see Antonio Brown ($6500) getting some deep shots. It would be a bit of a risk/reward play, but it could be an option. Just remember, when Tampa gets in the red zone the first receiving option is usually Evans.
Tampa has the NFL’s best run defense. DeAndre Swift has some value as a pass-catcher, but I would temper expectations. Teams can pass against Tampa, so the best chance DET has is to throw and throw often. Stafford played well despite the injury and he connected often with Marvin Jones ($6800). I am just concerned about the matchup against Carlton Davis. TJ Hockenstein ($6200) likely is the better option here.
SF@Ari (Ari -6 O/U:49)
I like Kyler Murray a lot. But despite being hobbled, the SF defense is solid. I can see Murray having a good game, but I think his ceiling is limited. Fortunately, he has DeAndre Hopkins. Those two can be a challenge even for the best defenses and are worth rostering. But they do not come cheap (both at $8700). Can they justify their high price? I don’t know. On the ground, I do not trust Kenyon Drake even though SF gave up over 25 FP to Tony Pollard last week. If Arizona is going to have success running, I think it will be Murray, not Drake.
When San Francisco has the ball, it will be CJ Bethard under center. Bethard has been unspectacular so far this year. Thus, I would give a slight downgrade to Brandon Aiyuk. I think SF will be a little more conservative given a small bump to Jeff Wilson ($6600) - if he plays - and Jordan Reed ($5100).
Miami@LV (LV +3 O/U:47.5)
This one has the lowest line, but closest spread. I am not sure if Carr will start for LV or not. Regardless, I do not trust the LV receiving corps against Miami – not counting Waller. Waller is likely a must-start at TE. Running the ball, Jacobs is good, but I feel he will struggle as well.
I think Miami can move the ball against LV, especially in the run game. I like Salvon Ahmed ($6600) this week, but how much will Brieda play? Will Geiseki play? What about DeVante Parker? I will have to monitor the injury report this week; I think Miami could have some success passing against LV. There may be some value to be found.