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January 6th - what will happen?


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@timschochet - I know you're an honorable guy, so I'll make a wager with you that *you* can declare who won. 

By the end of 2021, I think you will be satisfied that Trump and the Capitol Police/National Guard brass (or Pentagon -- not clear to me how that works) actively coordinated to leave the Capitol under-protected.  $20, and you get to decide whether you win or lose the bet.

If you need me to I'll forward the money in advance for you to hold.

We're less than 48 hours in and there's already bits and pieces pointing this way.  Plus IMO you can always take the over on Trump's venal and corrupt intent.

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The President told MAGA to do it MAGA said they were going to do it MAGA filmed themselves doing it Afterwards, MAGA bragged about it Clearly, it was ANTIFA’s fault

One is an ugly, decrepit wasteland ruled by an assortment of villains hoping to impose their will on peace-loving people everywhere who otherwise just want to be left alone to tend to their gardens.

So they're finally following the CDC guidelines for the pandemic?

9 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

Of course you don't. 

Edit: Also, an analogy is not an equivalence.

Of course I don’t because I shouldn’t and neither should you. On Wednesday there were 30,000 protestors and a few hundred rioters. Most of the protestors were peaceful. During the summer there were millions of a peaceful protestors and thousands of rioters. Most of the protestors were peaceful. 
It’s wrong to conflate the two. Please stop. 

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Just now, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

@timschochet - I know you're an honorable guy, so I'll make a wager with you that *you* can declare who won. 

By the end of 2021, I think you will be satisfied that Trump and the Capitol Police/National Guard brass (or Pentagon -- not clear to me how that works) actively coordinated to leave the Capitol under-protected.  $20, and you get to decide whether you win or lose the bet.

If you need me to I'll forward the money in advance for you to hold.

We're less than 48 hours in and there's already bits and pieces pointing this way.  Plus IMO you can always take the over on Trump's venal and corrupt intent.

I don’t need to have a wager about it. If it turns out to be so I will acknowledge it and be pretty depressed. 

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Just now, timschochet said:

Of course I don’t because I shouldn’t and neither should you. On Wednesday there were 30,000 protestors and a few hundred rioters. Most of the protestors were peaceful. During the summer there were millions of a peaceful protestors and thousands of rioters. Most of the protestors were peaceful. 
It’s wrong to conflate the two. Please stop. 

It's not wrong to conflate various flavors of peaceful protesters (fine) and various flavors of rioters (not fine).  The fact that you find it so difficult to make that distinction -- which really ought to be uncontroversial -- is the problem.

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3 hours ago, AAABatteries said:

It will be interesting to see where the investigation leads.  I’m not willing to go all conspiracy theory without hard evidence but I am willing to listen to folks who would have expertise or knowledge and where they think the investigation should go.

It's hard not to go down the conspiracy rabbit hole when you see the clip of police opening up the high tech pedestrian barriers surrounding the building, it's hard not too. And really not even that because frankly, the woeful amount of police present had no chance at stopping that mob so pretty sure I'd live to fight another day as well.

My point, it's hard to imagine, knowing that this rally was going to take place for weeks beforehand, knowing that the crowd attending was going to be fired up, listening to the rhetoric right before the attack being spewed by the President, they had no idea what was coming. It's Washington D.C., this happens almost ever week there (meaning large crowd control). Had to be some complicity at some level to let this happen.

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3 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

It's not wrong to conflate various flavors of peaceful protesters (fine) and various flavors of rioters (not fine).  The fact that you find it so difficult to make that distinction -- which really ought to be uncontroversial -- is the problem.

You (and many others) keep saying this, but I don't think very many people suggested the rioters from this summer should skate or were justified.  I'd like to see them all rounded up.

But even if you DO think they should skate (which, again, no one does as far as I've ever seen), the Capitol during a joint session of Congress to formalize the results of a Presidential election isn't the corner drug store.  Different rules are doing to apply.  It's amazing to me that anyone would try and suggest otherwise.

Edited by Dinsy Ejotuz
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1 minute ago, beer 30 said:

It's hard not to go down the conspiracy rabbit hole when you see the clip of police opening up the high tech pedestrian barriers surrounding the building, it's hard not too. And really not even that because frankly, the woeful amount of police present had no chance at stopping that mob so pretty sure I'd live to fight another day as well.

My point, it's hard to imagine, knowing that this rally was going to take place for weeks beforehand, knowing that the crowd attending was going to be fired up, listening to the rhetoric right before the attack being spewed by the President, they had no idea what was coming. It's Washington D.C., this happens almost ever week there (meaning large crowd control). Had to be some complicity at some level to let this happen.

I tend to agree with you - it was shocking how long it appeared to take them to really respond to what was going on (especially knowing that there was going to be 20-40k).  I don't know if Scooby's theory is correct, it does make some sense but there's a lot of weirdness to this whole thing.

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6 minutes ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

You (and many others) keep saying this, but I don't think very many people suggested the rioters from this summer should skate or were justified.  I'd like to see them all rounded up.

But even if you DO think they should skate (which, again, no one does as far as I've ever seen), the Capitol during a joint session of Congress to formalize the results of a Presidential election isn't the corner drug store.  Different rules are doing to apply.  It's amazing to me that anyone would try and suggest otherwise.

You couldn't even get all the way through a five-sentence post without downplaying the summer riots.

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5 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

I tend to agree with you - it was shocking how long it appeared to take them to really respond to what was going on (especially knowing that there was going to be 20-40k).  I don't know if Scooby's theory is correct, it does make some sense but there's a lot of weirdness to this whole thing.

And there's the crux of it all. My rule is to wait it out a week or two and then revisit. You've already seen a couple high ranking Capitol Police officials resign/quit, I'm sure there will be a huge investigation into this and we'll probably get about 1/2 of the truth like always.

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1 hour ago, Godsbrother said:

I don't think they cooperated with rioters but I have seen one video of the police opening the barrier at one location and letting the protestors in.   There was also a picture of a policeman posing for a selfie with protestors inside the Capitol.   

I don't think either of these cases suggests the police force as a whole were "in on it" and I think anyone suggesting that is wrong.

There’s another video of an officer opening the barricade and waiving people in 

ETA: I watched it again, need to see a longer video to be sure. He could have been waiving at officers who were off camera 

Edited by Ilov80s
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Just now, IvanKaramazov said:

You couldn't even get all the way through a five-sentence post without downplaying the summer riots.

Downplaying relative to what?!

Insurrection to overthrow the government of the United States?  Hell yes I did.

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22 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

I was going to reply to one of the posts about the police officer that passed but this applies to - we are talking about the Capitol building, are there not 24/7 video surveillance cameras operating?  Hell, my wife has freaking ring devices all over our property - if somebody broke in and murdered my dog I would already know who the person is. 

And yes, that is a warning to @The Gator to never step foot on my property.

He's more likely to break your lamps.

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Again, if we are going to compare what happened yesterday to the summer riots, were there any summer riots where the crimes they did were forecasted by their own social media postings weeks in advance? I'm not talking about forecasting the protest, but the actual crimes that were committed.

Were there any summer riots were a federal building was breached?

Were there any summer riots where 14 police officers (and maybe as many as 56 depending on what media outlet is reporting) were injured?

Were there any summer riots where a police officer died from injuries suffered during the riot? 

Were there any summer riots that hindered or delayed the execution of Federal law?

Were there any summer riots that were led on by the delusional conspiracy theory of an elected official?

I am having a really hard time minimizing what happened wednesday to what happened over the summer. Links to the requests above would help me get there. And I am being open minded about this. And I hope people that already are there aren't there just because they are ignoring the magnitude of what went down yesterday. 

Edited by Death Bytes
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1 minute ago, IvanKaramazov said:

"Nobody ever defended the riots during the summer.  Certainly not me.  Oh and by the way, the summer riots weren't really all that bad."

Is it possible I misunderstood you? Or vice versa? The summer riots were terrible. All riots are terrible. 

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5 minutes ago, beer 30 said:

And there's the crux of it all. My rule is to wait it out a week or two and then revisit. You've already seen a couple high ranking Capitol Police officials resign/quit, I'm sure there will be a huge investigation into this and we'll probably get about 1/2 of the truth like always.

Definitely a wait and see thing. There’s always so much misinformation and confusion in the aftermath of these events 

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5 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

"Nobody ever defended the riots during the summer.  Certainly not me.  Oh and by the way, the summer riots weren't really all that bad."

Making a statement like "smashing a window and stealing a TV is not as bad as attacking the US Capitol and planting bombs at the RNC/DNC during a joint session of Congress" is not defending the summer riots.  Surely you could agree with that.

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2 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:
8 minutes ago, beer 30 said:

And there's the crux of it all. My rule is to wait it out a week or two and then revisit. You've already seen a couple high ranking Capitol Police officials resign/quit, I'm sure there will be a huge investigation into this and we'll probably get about 1/2 of the truth like always.

Definitely a wait and see thing. There’s always so much misinformation and confusion in the aftermath of these events 

I'd expect Congress to be investigating too since it was their lives that were threatened.  Occam's razor though makes me think this was just an unprecedented event that Capitol Police were just not prepared for. You also will note that all of this action happened on the opposite side of the Capitol from where the main security chokepoints are setup.

Now the National Guard delay info that is coming out is much more concerning to me.

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Why are the summer riots and the Capitol incursion even being spoken about together? Can't each exist as their own bad acts on their own terms?

It's not like someone on trial for stealing $1,000 can credibly say "I know of someone who stole $900 ... what about them?" Such a statement would be disregarded, and the trial of the $1,000 thief proceeds as normal.

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1 hour ago, parasaurolophus said:

Seeing that it could be ten year sentences because of Trump's executive order. Seems unlikely to me that would stand, but I certainly love the poetry of it. 

 

I'd have to read the EO, but if they are federally charged there is a court case (US v. Booker IIRC) that would likely still give the sentence judge discretion whether to deviate from the specific term in the EO. 

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1 minute ago, Doug B said:

Why are the summer riots and the Capitol incursion even being spoken about together? Can't each exist as their own bad acts on their own terms?

It's not like someone on trial for stealing $1,000 can credibly say "I know of someone who stole $900 ... what about them?" Such a statement would be disregarded, and the trial of the $1,000 thief proceeds as normal.

I'm not sure. I'm disregarding those, but I'm not surprised.

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Just now, Desert_Power said:

I'd expect Congress to be investigating too since it was their lives that were threatened.  Occam's razor though makes me think this was just an unprecedented event that Capitol Police were just not prepared for. You also will note that all of this action happened on the opposite side of the Capitol from where the main security chokepoints are setup.

Now the National Guard delay info that is coming out is much more concerning to me.

Yeah I definitely don’t think it was some mass insurrection from the police. There may be some who were sympathetic but that’s likely a very small number. The lack of prep and the delay once it was clear the situation got out of hand is the really puzzling part.

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7 minutes ago, Rich Conway said:

Making a statement like "smashing a window and stealing a TV is not as bad as attacking the US Capitol and planting bombs at the RNC/DNC during a joint session of Congress" is not defending the summer riots.  Surely you could agree with that.

The fact that you feel the need to downplay the riots as "smashing a window a stealing a TV" pretty much says it all.

It's really not that hard to just to say "political violence is bad."  The fact that people can't bring themselves to do that without all sorts of qualifiers that excuse or downplay their tribe's violence is the problem.

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2 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Why are the summer riots and the Capitol incursion even being spoken about together? Can't each exist as their own bad acts on their own terms?

It's not like someone on trial for stealing $1,000 can credibly say "I know of someone who stole $900 ... what about them?" Such a statement would be disregarded, and the trial of the $1,000 thief proceeds as normal.

Some are saying that the riot at the capital is a direct result of the summer riots. It normalized vandalism and created a desire for revenge perhaps? It’s also being used to highlight partisanship. In the end, I think both are expressions of the rage that so many Americans feel. We have to be the angriest country in the world. Obviously BLM feels that their human rights have been systematically violated for hundreds of years and that the police are never held responsible. MAGA has been built over only a couple decades but it’s also built on rage against the perceived discrimination against working class white people. 

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IVAN: Charles Manson was a terrible murderer! 

ME: Yeah I agree, who wouldn’t? 

IVAN: Charles Manson was a bad as Hitler and Stalin! 

ME: Wellll...I wouldn’t go that far. Hitler and Stalin were responsible for the deaths of millions. Manson’s evil can’t compare to that. 

IVAN: Why are you defending Charles Manson? 

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8 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Why are the summer riots and the Capitol incursion even being spoken about together? Can't each exist as their own bad acts on their own terms?

It's not like someone on trial for stealing $1,000 can credibly say "I know of someone who stole $900 ... what about them?" Such a statement would be disregarded, and the trial of the $1,000 thief proceeds as normal.

They are comparable in that they re both crimes of the same type, but they are not of the same degree at all. 

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Quite frankly this is kind of dumb from what I consider all smart and good posters.  Maybe you guys think it's important to parse words but I don't.  I'm fairly confident that you all agree on this (basically).

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1 minute ago, IvanKaramazov said:

The fact that you feel the need to downplay the riots as "smashing a window a stealing a TV" pretty much says it all.

It's really not that hard to just to say "political violence is bad."  The fact that people can't bring themselves to do that without all sorts of qualifiers that excuse or downplay their tribe's violence is the problem.

All violence is bad.  The end.  That does not mean that all violence is equal.  I'm sorry, but it's not.  If I punch someone, that's bad.  If I shoot someone, that's also bad, but it's not wrong to say it's worse than punching someone.

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Everyone in the Capitol had their cameras out. I imagine it is only a matter of time until someone pieces together all the footage and we get a clear picture of who helped who or who didn't.

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1 hour ago, timschochet said:
1 hour ago, IvanKaramazov said:

So were the riots earlier this week.  I'm pretty close to 100% sure that the rioters in the capitol building were paying very careful attention to the riots this summer -- they were listening.

They weren’t. Because if they had been, they would have left the scene and then a bunch of teenage thugs, unrelated to them and without their knowledge or complicity, would have committed the mayhem against their wishes. 

The Trump supporters were paying close attention last summer, but they were watching through a selective lens -- either by means of their chosen media bubble, or by means of their own partisan blinders -- which distorted their expectations.

When Joe Biden denounced violence, they either didn't see it, or they didn't believe it, or they fell for fake news claiming that it didn't happen. Meanwhile, when Trump condemned the summer rioters, it came with a side dish of whataboutism; he cynically exploited the riots by describing his own rallies and other maskless superspreader events as "peaceful protests". This laid the groundwork for his supporters to connect the dots and assume that they could do whatever they wanted, up to and including storming the Capitol, and they could get away with it under the guise of "peaceful protest". When Trump called for lengthy prison sentences for summer rioters, his supporters could have assumed that it wouldn't apply to them -- either because Trump would just pardon them like he pardoned other supporters who committed crimes on his behalf, or because they assumed that Trump's call for prison was just another fun and meaningless slogan designed to rile up the libs, a la "Lock her up." They didn't take it literally. Besides, why would they get in trouble after Josh Hawley gave them a fistbump and Trump encouraged them to stop the steal and march to the Capitol?

Edited by Sea Duck
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7 minutes ago, Death Bytes said:
16 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Why are the summer riots and the Capitol incursion even being spoken about together? Can't each exist as their own bad acts on their own terms?

It's not like someone on trial for stealing $1,000 can credibly say "I know of someone who stole $900 ... what about them?" Such a statement would be disregarded, and the trial of the $1,000 thief proceeds as normal.

They are comparable in that they re both crimes of the same type, but they are not of the same degree at all. 

The property damage during the summer was extensive in some areas ... in some terms, the degree wasn't that different. In other terms, the crimes were wildly different.

However, my main point was that one set of crimes cannot absolve wholly separate** set of crimes. IMHO, "them too!" is always an illegitimate argument when evaluating separate crimes**.


** I say "separate crimes" to specifically exclude heat-of-the-moment self-defense, etc.

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1 hour ago, gianmarco said:

 

4)  The difference here is that those that were actually INSIDE the Capitol weren't treated the same way as some of the peaceful protestors from the summer.  It's not a like for like comparison.  And the preparation for the peaceful protest at the Lincoln Memorial was far different than the preparation for a rally that was then told to march to the Capitol by the POTUS where the entrance was guarded by only a few Capitol police in front of a simple guardrail. 

 

Again, a Minneapolis police precinct was burned down and the police just went home.

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2 minutes ago, CletiusMaximus said:

Incorrect.  Exhibit A - Zoot Suit Riot by the Cherry Poppin' Daddies

 

Counterpoint: 

Exhibit B - Quiet Riot

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Just now, Doug B said:

OK ... and?

Kinda makes the argument of "black people would've been treated differently if they stormed the Capitol" non-factual since we have evidence from the summer showing the contrary.

Also, last I checked, one rioter was shot and killed by Capitol police.

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7 minutes ago, jobarules said:

Again, a Minneapolis police precinct was burned down and the police just went home.

Also, a chunk of Portland was simply abandoned and handed over to the mob.

But let's forget about all of that and pretend that it was just some guy smashing a window a stealing a TV.

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9 minutes ago, jobarules said:
11 minutes ago, Doug B said:

OK ... and?

Kinda makes the argument of "black people would've been treated differently if they stormed the Capitol" non-factual since we have evidence from the summer showing the contrary.

Minneapolis is not Washington D.C.

This is how the Capitol Police respond when black people protest at the capital.

Edited by Sea Duck
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24 minutes ago, Rich Conway said:

Making a statement like "smashing a window and stealing a TV is not as bad as attacking the US Capitol and planting bombs at the RNC/DNC during a joint session of Congress" is not defending the summer riots.  Surely you could agree with that.

I think the point Ivan is trying to make is that minimizing burning down businesses and taking over city blocks has contributed to what happened. 

That letting large groups of people just get it out of their system and pretty much go unpunished can lead to a terrible outcome. 

That referring to an at least partially armed takeover of a section of a city as a summer of love street festival is not good for long term security. 

I am old enough to remember when people were arguing it was the federal officers protecting federal property in Portland that were the real reason for the trouble. That they were the ones ratcheting up tensions as people tried to destroy the fence and threw a bomb inside a federal building. The response was repeated calls to withdraw. Imagine the outrage had officers opened fire after that exploded in the lobby? 

And for the record I made this exact point before this happened. That law enforcement has kind of been backed into a corner with how they have to react since the policy has been to mostly back down. 

 

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