You think he'll get more than 6 yards on his one reception?Well this is getting out of hand.
Derrick Henry: 27 carries for 234 yards, 1 receipt for 6 yards.
What gives here FBG?
I need more than that from himWell this is getting out of hand.
Derrick Henry: 27 carries for 234 yards, 1 receipt for 6 yards.
What gives here FBG?
I need more than that from him
Same. Or more TDsMe too
Half a share of RLFTF?I'll take the under. Anyone interested in a wager?
In all seriousness, it seems high for sure. But if he hit it wouldn't be completely shocking.Sure.
I was serious. You in for a share?In all seriousness, it seems high for sure. But if he hit it wouldn't be completely shocking.
I'd bet on the Titans doing everything they can to give him a legit chance at 2k while winning. He needs 321 to get there. Although it's entirely possible he gets more next week than this week.
I get what you are saying. Derrick is the league leader at just under 120 rushing per game. Projecting him for 234 rushing is like projecting Mahomes for 616 passing. I have to assume it's a typo and should be 134 yards, but if it's not, yeah, Ziggy needs to answer for his craziness.Well this is getting out of hand.
Derrick Henry: 27 carries for 234 yards, 1 receipt for 6 yards.
What gives here FBG?
No it wasn't. GB was going to have too much time of possession for that to happen no matter how bad their defense may have playedDidn't happen obviously...but I have watched this Packers D. That was a reasonable projection.
People were making dfs decisions.Was anyone making an FF championship decision to not start Henry? I mean really?
And they were likely wanting the NFLs best RB against a bad run defense.People were making dfs decisions.
They were likely wanting one of the other 6 players who outscored Henry in their MVP spot.And they were likely wanting the NFLs best RB against a bad run defense.
Packers were 6th in the league in rushing yards allowed.And they were likely wanting the NFLs best RB against a bad run defense.
I doubt it. HIs projections are based on science. I don't think Blooms are.Well that may have been the single worst projection in the history of FF. I'd be curious if Dodds in the last 20 years has ever projected anyone to rush for 200 yards unless it was a college game.
It's a shame Dodds is leaving. Not sure who will pick up the torch, but after this effort, Bloom shouldn't have a seat at the table.I doubt it. HIs projections are based on science. I don't think Blooms are.
A projection for a player should represent the median most expected outcome. So a projection of 230 yards would mean the player has the upside for 300 and a floor of 100.
No one has ever run for 300 yards in a game before ( a few have come close) therefore this guess is not talking about the average outcome at all.
Or its a typo and he meant 130 yards.
Supposedly they have some other math wizes who will take up the mantle and with a similar process should produce similar results I would think.It's a shame Dodds is leaving. Not sure who will pick up the torch, but after this effort, Bloom shouldn't have a seat at the table.
I like both Bloom and Dodds, but projections have been of poor quality, once again. Case and point this week, both Dodds and Bloom had Ryan Finley starting for the Bengals, and didn't bother to change it, even though Brandon Allen was not on the injury report at the end. This type of thing happens weekly. For example, the week after Mims was on COVID list he was widely reported to be back, but Bloom didn't project him for any stats. I've given up on raising these types of issues, because the answer is inevitably enter a ticket... which means the users play quality control for FBG.It's a shame Dodds is leaving. Not sure who will pick up the torch, but after this effort, Bloom shouldn't have a seat at the table.
When you go shopping at CVS.Well this is getting out of hand.
Derrick Henry: 27 carries for 234 yards, 1 receipt for 6 yards.
Perhaps you could do better.It's a shame Dodds is leaving. Not sure who will pick up the torch, but after this effort, Bloom shouldn't have a seat at the table.
(Whispers) Roughly 99% of the people playing fantasy just want some quick advice for their fun hobby. If everyone who isn't cross-checking predictions gives it up, sites like this cease to exist.grateful zed said:If anyone isn't cross checking predictions, the had better give up ff.
A projection of 16 carries for 15 yards and 0 recpts of 0 yards and 0.3 TDs would have been much more plausible...and accurate.As a Henry owner, I completely disregarded the projection. Thought it was a type. And it usually isn't Henry's projection I am scrutinizing anyway since he's always going to be starting. It's the players on the fringes.
I feel like the projections for Dodds/Bloom/Tremblay are solid. Early in the week you can tell it's just the statistical machine that spits out the early projections, but then they are tweaked as the week moves along.
However, I do think as we run into the holiday season, people taking time off, distractions, games on strange days, things get lost a bit. I have noticed that projections that should have been altered a great deal the last two weeks were not. Not just Bloom either.
I assumed Bloom, as a professional prognosticator, had some inside info, so I placed a large wager that Henry would eclipse 150 rushing. Sadly, I just turned over the deed to my house, because of a typo.A projection of 16 carries for 15 yards and 0 recpts of 0 yards and 0.3 TDs would have been much more plausible...and accurate.
We run into this every year. If you are going to take people's money for providing a service then don't just mail it in during the holidays, especially during championship week.
It's a good excuse, however we pay for these services and thus expect better.However, I do think as we run into the holiday season, people taking time off, distractions, games on strange days, things get lost a bit. I have noticed that projections that should have been altered a great deal the last two weeks were not. Not just Bloom either.
This kind of thing has been happening for a few weeks - really late updates to changed situations (injury, benching, COVID impact, etc.) that every site but FBG manages to update in a timely fashion.Gardner Minshew, Ryan Finley, Jarret Stidham projected as starters. Must not be anyone double checking the staff projections.
Totally agree with all this. Great posting.This kind of thing has been happening for a few weeks - really late updates to changed situations (injury, benching, COVID impact, etc.) that every site but FBG manages to update in a timely fashion.
I don't know how Bloom can justify a 200 yard game - his projections always stood as a (purposeful?) counterpoint to Dodds' but this kind of prediction can't be seriously justified.
This site has been slipping for some time, I think it dates back to the rise of DFLs and FBGs splitting resources trying to be everything for everyone but falling a little short everywhere. With Dodds leaving a big part of what made this site differentiated - quality seasonal and weekly projections - may be harder to prove out - this Bloom progno doesn't bode well for filling the gap Dodds leaves behind.
I am sure Joe will find a way - have been a big fan of this site since the old yeller days - but the direction the site has taken in terms of quality and value, the continued decline of the boards, and more is making me reevaluate a lot of things about how I spend my time - and my money - during football season going forward.
Happy trails, all.
I really miss a lot of the “why” content this year. Game summaries for each relevant player summarizing how they looked. Matchup analysis prose etc. the analytical stuff and modeling is nice (although without Dodds that will slip), but the why is so important and part of the fun of the game.This kind of thing has been happening for a few weeks - really late updates to changed situations (injury, benching, COVID impact, etc.) that every site but FBG manages to update in a timely fashion.
I don't know how Bloom can justify a 200 yard game - his projections always stood as a (purposeful?) counterpoint to Dodds' but this kind of prediction can't be seriously justified.
This site has been slipping for some time, I think it dates back to the rise of DFLs and FBGs splitting resources trying to be everything for everyone but falling a little short everywhere. With Dodds leaving a big part of what made this site differentiated - quality seasonal and weekly projections - may be harder to prove out - this Bloom progno doesn't bode well for filling the gap Dodds leaves behind.
I am sure Joe will find a way - have been a big fan of this site since the old yeller days - but the direction the site has taken in terms of quality and value, the continued decline of the boards, and more is making me reevaluate a lot of things about how I spend my time - and my money - during football season going forward.
Happy trails, all.
Nothing quite like falling short during championship week and seasons closeFor sh*ts and giggles I just went to look up Bloom's projections tonight for Cam Newton (since my Buf D is up against him).
Has Stidham in there instead.
Disappointing.
Zero excuse for Holidays. We don't get the Holidays off. The opposite actually. We need more focus than ever. That's just how it is for this business. We get the end of February to take a break.However, I do think as we run into the holiday season, people taking time off, distractions, games on strange days, things get lost a bit. I have noticed that projections that should have been altered a great deal the last two weeks were not. Not just Bloom either.
I pay most of my bills through my bank web site. If I put in an amount which is out of the ordinary (too high; never had one too low), I'll get a message pop up asking if it's correct since it's not typical. I have no idea of how it works on the programming end, but I guess something like that is what you're talking about here.One of the things we're implementing this offseason is a system that will help us spot errors and extreme outliers like that.
Yes. Something similar to that. Basically, an alert to let you know you're X % off the mainstream on this.I pay most of my bills through my bank web site. If I put in an amount which is out of the ordinary (too high; never had one too low), I'll get a message pop up asking if it's correct since it's not typical. I have no idea of how it works on the programming end, but I guess something like that is what you're talking about here.
I understand why you might say something like that. You have no reason to believe me other than to believe me but I can say confidently nobody at Footballguys "mailed it in".Nothing quite like mailing it in once the checks are cashed.