Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
Bloom Projections (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter BassNBrew
- Start date
-OZ-
Footballguy
JoeSteeler
Footballguy
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
TLEF316
Footballguy
-OZ-
Footballguy
-OZ-
Footballguy
BassNBrew
Footballguy
-OZ-
Footballguy
In all seriousness, it seems high for sure. But if he hit it wouldn't be completely shocking.
I'd bet on the Titans doing everything they can to give him a legit chance at 2k while winning. He needs 321 to get there. Although it's entirely possible he gets more next week than this week.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
-OZ-
Footballguy
-OZ-
Footballguy
TheWinz
Footballguy
I get what you are saying. Derrick is the league leader at just under 120 rushing per game. Projecting him for 234 rushing is like projecting Mahomes for 616 passing. I have to assume it's a typo and should be 134 yards, but if it's not, yeah, Ziggy needs to answer for his craziness.
KingPrawn
Footballguy
No it wasn't. GB was going to have too much time of possession for that to happen no matter how bad their defense may have played
BassNBrew
Footballguy
sho nuff
Footballguy
BassNBrew
Footballguy
They were likely wanting one of the other 6 players who outscored Henry in their MVP spot.
Regardless, if you are projecting someone to have 234 rushing yards on a slow track to boot, you are going to be wrong at least 95% of the time. It's an amazingly poor projection and paying subscribers deserve better.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I doubt it. HIs projections are based on science. I don't think Blooms are.
A projection for a player should represent the median most expected outcome. So a projection of 230 yards would mean the player has the upside for 300 and a floor of 100.
No one has ever run for 300 yards in a game before ( a few have come close) therefore this guess is not talking about the average outcome at all.
Or its a typo and he meant 130 yards.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
It's a shame Dodds is leaving. Not sure who will pick up the torch, but after this effort, Bloom shouldn't have a seat at the table.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Supposedly they have some other math wizes who will take up the mantle and with a similar process should produce similar results I would think.
There is some art to this of course as well. Hard to replace someone with the knowledge and wisdom of DD.
Genester
Footballguy
I like both Bloom and Dodds, but projections have been of poor quality, once again. Case and point this week, both Dodds and Bloom had Ryan Finley starting for the Bengals, and didn't bother to change it, even though Brandon Allen was not on the injury report at the end. This type of thing happens weekly. For example, the week after Mims was on COVID list he was widely reported to be back, but Bloom didn't project him for any stats. I've given up on raising these types of issues, because the answer is inevitably enter a ticket... which means the users play quality control for FBG.
Last edited by a moderator:
SkippaDaFlippa
Footballguy
grateful zed
Footballguy
Perhaps you could do better.
If anyone isn't cross checking predictions, the had better give up ff.
As a Henry owner, I completely disregarded the projection. Thought it was a type. And it usually isn't Henry's projection I am scrutinizing anyway since he's always going to be starting. It's the players on the fringes.
I feel like the projections for Dodds/Bloom/Tremblay are solid. Early in the week you can tell it's just the statistical machine that spits out the early projections, but then they are tweaked as the week moves along.
However, I do think as we run into the holiday season, people taking time off, distractions, games on strange days, things get lost a bit. I have noticed that projections that should have been altered a great deal the last two weeks were not. Not just Bloom either.
I feel like the projections for Dodds/Bloom/Tremblay are solid. Early in the week you can tell it's just the statistical machine that spits out the early projections, but then they are tweaked as the week moves along.
However, I do think as we run into the holiday season, people taking time off, distractions, games on strange days, things get lost a bit. I have noticed that projections that should have been altered a great deal the last two weeks were not. Not just Bloom either.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
A projection of 16 carries for 15 yards and 0 recpts of 0 yards and 0.3 TDs would have been much more plausible...and accurate.
We run into this every year. More errors during the holidays and closing weeks.
Last edited by a moderator:
TheWinz
Footballguy
I assumed Bloom, as a professional prognosticator, had some inside info, so I placed a large wager that Henry would eclipse 150 rushing. Sadly, I just turned over the deed to my house, because of a typo.
Mr.Pack
Footballguy
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
This kind of thing has been happening for a few weeks - really late updates to changed situations (injury, benching, COVID impact, etc.) that every site but FBG manages to update in a timely fashion.
I don't know how Bloom can justify a 200 yard game - his projections always stood as a (purposeful?) counterpoint to Dodds' but this kind of prediction can't be seriously justified.
This site has been slipping for some time, I think it dates back to the rise of DFLs and FBGs splitting resources trying to be everything for everyone but falling a little short everywhere. With Dodds leaving a big part of what made this site differentiated - quality seasonal and weekly projections - may be harder to prove out - this Bloom progno doesn't bode well for filling the gap Dodds leaves behind.
I am sure Joe will find a way - have been a big fan of this site since the old yeller days - but the direction the site has taken in terms of quality and value, the continued decline of the boards, and more is making me reevaluate a lot of things about how I spend my time - and my money - during football season going forward.
Happy trails, all.
Last edited by a moderator:
BroncoFreak_2K3
sucker for Orange
Sam Quentin
Footballguy
I really miss a lot of the “why” content this year. Game summaries for each relevant player summarizing how they looked. Matchup analysis prose etc. the analytical stuff and modeling is nice (although without Dodds that will slip), but the why is so important and part of the fun of the game.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Last edited by a moderator:
Sorry, just now seeing this thread. For future, please tag me as with the volume on the boards, I am unable to see a lot of what is posted.
I've asked Sigmund about this but I'm sure this was en entry error. I apologize. Sigmund is a fan of Henry (as we all are) but his normal projections for him had been in the 100-120 yard range the last few weeks. One of the things we're implementing this offseason is a system that will help us spot errors and extreme outliers like that.
This often will happen in the reverse where a ranker or projector will have a player forecasted too low. We always want to encourage our people to project and rank what they think. If not, we should just post an ADP list. But when there's an error, we need a way to be alerted more quickly.
An error like that is unacceptable and we apologize. Sigmund is one of the best in the industry and we'll get this right going forward.
I've asked Sigmund about this but I'm sure this was en entry error. I apologize. Sigmund is a fan of Henry (as we all are) but his normal projections for him had been in the 100-120 yard range the last few weeks. One of the things we're implementing this offseason is a system that will help us spot errors and extreme outliers like that.
This often will happen in the reverse where a ranker or projector will have a player forecasted too low. We always want to encourage our people to project and rank what they think. If not, we should just post an ADP list. But when there's an error, we need a way to be alerted more quickly.
An error like that is unacceptable and we apologize. Sigmund is one of the best in the industry and we'll get this right going forward.
Zero excuse for Holidays. We don't get the Holidays off. The opposite actually. We need more focus than ever. That's just how it is for this business. We get the end of February to take a break.
Last edited by a moderator:
Uruk-Hai
Footballguy
I pay most of my bills through my bank web site. If I put in an amount which is out of the ordinary (too high; never had one too low), I'll get a message pop up asking if it's correct since it's not typical. I have no idea of how it works on the programming end, but I guess something like that is what you're talking about here.
Yes. Something similar to that. Basically, an alert to let you know you're X % off the mainstream on this.
Ok. Sigmund got back to me. It was as I thought and he meant to enter 134. It's 100% an error and that buck stops with me. I apologize.
That's just words though. What I'm going to do is continue pushing for renovating our system to help stop errors like this from happening in the future.
That's just words though. What I'm going to do is continue pushing for renovating our system to help stop errors like this from happening in the future.
I understand why you might say something like that. You have no reason to believe me other than to believe me but I can say confidently nobody at Footballguys "mailed it in".
If anything, we gave Week 16 even more effort than normal which is why it's so crushing to have an error.
I understand your shot. We made an error with one projector on Derrick Henry. I deserve criticism for the error. But it wasn't for lack of effort.
Last edited by a moderator:
