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Dynasty Buy and Sell Targets (1 Viewer)

Who are you getting rid of?

Who are you targeting?
The collective scuttlebutt forecasts inevitable doom on Zeke. As I write this, folks are tossing dirt on his proverbial grave. He’s only 26 and should have Dak and a healthy line next year. He is absolutely a top 5 back for me. Take advantage of the groupthink and buy for .85 cents on the dollar- you will get top level production for at least 2-3 seasons. He is making an obscene amount of money- so they will use him extensively. Pollard may cut slightly into his snaps, but Zeke will again be a bell cow- a truly difficult commodity to find.

 
The collective scuttlebutt forecasts inevitable doom on Zeke. As I write this, folks are tossing dirt on his proverbial grave. He’s only 26 and should have Dak and a healthy line next year. He is absolutely a top 5 back for me. Take advantage of the groupthink and buy for .85 cents on the dollar- you will get top level production for at least 2-3 seasons. He is making an obscene amount of money- so they will use him extensively. Pollard may cut slightly into his snaps, but Zeke will again be a bell cow- a truly difficult commodity to find.
It's tough on Zeke.  

Sure, Dak being back will help.  But he hasn't looked the same all season.  Pollard will probably be taking more carries away next season. 

Zeke will still carry name value.  Owners will argue that he'll bounce back with Dak.  They'll still try to sell him as a top 5 back.  I don't think there's going to be a substantial discount at this point.  I was asked for Lamb and then some to get Zeke.  If I can get a legitimate discount on the guy, I'd give it a shot.  But I just haven't seen that.

 
I'm still not certain on some backs, but for receivers Moore and Chark top my list on buying low. Both a capable QB away from being regular fantasy starters. Moore is already a WR2 in 10 team standard formats, but Bridge is holding him back from greater things. Chark needs a QB, and Lawrence might just be what the fantasy doctor ordered.

 
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I’m buying Miles Sanders. If he remembers how to catch the football he’ll easily outperform his ADP.

Gerald Everett does a few things really well and will be a FA. He feels like someone the Patriots would sign for cheap and turn into a pro-bowler. Arizona would be a great fit, too. I’m confident a FO will see the traits and take a chance. 

Buying high on Tee Higgins, Chase Claypool, Stefon Diggs, and DJ Chark.

Scott Miller and Tyler Johnson are essentially free, but could have some opportunity next season if Godwin and Brown move on. Especially Miller, as Brady’s arm will be a year older. 

I probably missed the boat on AJ Dillon, but might see if I can get something solid along with him for a late first. 

I’ll be doubling down on Hayden Hurst, though I’d feel irresponsible suggesting it to others. I just see obvious physical talent and what was once a great situation. I’m not sure why it didn’t work this year. Fool me twice...

I don’t own them, but I’d be trying like hell to move Aaron Jones and Zeke.

I’d also be pretty motivated to turn Cook, Henry, or Kamara into someone like Swift/Gibson/Taylor+.

 
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If I didn't already own him, I'd be trying to get Michael Thomas. Time was probably mid-season to get him, but owners might still be bitter. He showed with Taysom that he can still be a 10/110 guy week in and week out.

 
It's tough on Zeke.  

Sure, Dak being back will help.  But he hasn't looked the same all season.  Pollard will probably be taking more carries away next season. 

Zeke will still carry name value.  Owners will argue that he'll bounce back with Dak.  They'll still try to sell him as a top 5 back.  I don't think there's going to be a substantial discount at this point.  I was asked for Lamb and then some to get Zeke.  If I can get a legitimate discount on the guy, I'd give it a shot.  But I just haven't seen that.
I agree with you. I'm thinking the time to sell may not be right now. In so many quarters, the collective wisdom being dispersed via podcasts, Twitter, and websites is that Zeke is a "sell now" player. That collective information set takes some time to permeate into the larger FF collective thought process, so you may need to wait a few weeks before making a deal. I have noticed on many of the podcasts I listen to and on the websites that I frequent, the expert FF class has made the clarion call to sell. Let this information have time to disperse and settle- then make your move. To my initial point, you'll likely have to pay .85 on the dollar, so it's not like anyone is stealing him, but he will be a relative value and worth exploring the possibilities for. 

 
If I didn’t already own him, I’d say James Robinson. I have a feeling the folks worried about him being replaced don’t actually own him; but if that’s not the case in your leagues, he’s still easy money. He’s really good - really. 

 
If I didn't already own him, I'd be trying to get Michael Thomas. Time was probably mid-season to get him, but owners might still be bitter. He showed with Taysom that he can still be a 10/110 guy week in and week out.
Huh? He didn't hit 10 or 110 once this season with any QB (granted, he got close). He put up decent numbers with Hill, but zero TD's and he faced terrible defenses in those games.

 
Here are some buys:

Brandon Aiyuk-The kid is a monster...won't come cheap but this maybe the cheapest you will get him.

Mike Gesicki-Right on the verge of a major breakout.

Allen Robinson-Somehow only 27 years old...gonna be a UFA...we know his floor with the Bears but what happens if he goes to a plum landing spot.

Michael Pittman-Injury limited his rookie year but he looks like the real deal.

Noah Fant-Just a matter of time before he joins that upper-tier of TEs.

Josh Reynolds-gotta believe the Rams let him walk...possibility he goes to a place where he gets a chance to start.

Will Fuller-The Texans want to keep Deshaun happy and they don't have a pick in the first two rounds...my guess is they re-sign him and he picks up where he left off. 

 
Here are some buys:

Brandon Aiyuk-The kid is a monster...won't come cheap but this maybe the cheapest you will get him.

Mike Gesicki-Right on the verge of a major breakout.

Allen Robinson-Somehow only 27 years old...gonna be a UFA...we know his floor with the Bears but what happens if he goes to a plum landing spot.

Michael Pittman-Injury limited his rookie year but he looks like the real deal.

Noah Fant-Just a matter of time before he joins that upper-tier of TEs.

Josh Reynolds-gotta believe the Rams let him walk...possibility he goes to a place where he gets a chance to start.

Will Fuller-The Texans want to keep Deshaun happy and they don't have a pick in the first two rounds...my guess is they re-sign him and he picks up where he left off. 
Good list. I agree with every one of these.

I’d add Perriman as an older and more proven, but equally affordable version of Reynolds. He’s a quality deep threat who I could see putting up ~800/5 in a good landing spot. 

And Curtis Samuel as a more expensive version.

 
If I didn’t already own him, I’d say James Robinson. I have a feeling the folks worried about him being replaced don’t actually own him; but if that’s not the case in your leagues, he’s still easy money. He’s really good - really. 
Agree wholeheartedly. The Jags are taking Lawrence and have needs at all of the other positions. Sure, they'll add a depth piece at RB but Robinson has shown he can handle a significant workload. There is no reason for the Jags to invest significant capital at this position. They will sign a depth FA and perhaps draft a back, but unless something fluky happens, like a Harris or Etienne falling lower than they should, I see the Jags will be drafting at other positions with early round capital. 

 
Here are some buys:

Brandon Aiyuk-The kid is a monster...won't come cheap but this maybe the cheapest you will get him.
Not a huge fan of this for fantasy, especially at the price you'd have to pay now. Typically a run heavy offense, and we've yet to see what he can do with a healthy Kittle and Deebo. I just don't see enough targets there when they are all healthy for consistent fantasy production. I love the talent.

 
Good list. I agree with every one of these.

I’d add Perriman as an older and more proven, but equally affordable version of Reynolds. He’s a quality deep threat who I could see putting up ~800/5 in a good landing spot. 

And Curtis Samuel as a more expensive version.
Samuel is very interesting...a lot to process with him...a boatload of talent and another guy who does not appear to be aging as he is only 24...gonna be an UFA...after teasing us for while he appears to be "settling in" in kind of a hybrid role which can be tricky to figure out fantasywise...do the Panthers re-sign him (they seem to be in decent cap shape) or does a team make him a silly offer (at his age that is a possibility) and if he goes elsewhere is he used the same way...great call putting him on this list...how do you value him right now?

 
Not a huge fan of this for fantasy, especially at the price you'd have to pay now. Typically a run heavy offense, and we've yet to see what he can do with a healthy Kittle and Deebo. I just don't see enough targets there when they are all healthy for consistent fantasy production. I love the talent.
Good points and I understand them but I think he is so talented they will not hold him back...he is one of my top targets this offseason.

 
With the caveat that this might be me being pig-headed on my own properties...

If I own Zack Moss or Singletary, I would try to pick the other one up for cheap.   I was a Singletary owner that made the decision that I needed to lock down the Bills backfield.  This was easily my bad beat of the 2020 dynasty season because I made a very rich offer to lock in Moss to get this done.  RB2 was my one glaring weakness / uncertainty heading into the season.   The theory was that if Moss underwhelmed, then Singletary should build on his rookie year and continue to give solid RB2 production.   If Moss did take over then great, I have a young up and coming RB on a great offense that can immediately slot into RB2.   My August assessment was that the Bills offense was on the rise and should be good for years.   Josh Allen has blown away my loftiest expectations of what the Bills offense could be.    I felt that the worst case scenario was that Moss and Singletary would be a perfectly even split in fantasy value, it would be hard to pick a winner from week to week, but even so I should be able to throw a dart at one and have a low end RB2 / super-RB3 operating north of double digit production in 1/2 ppr.

For the most part, the feared perfectly even split has been there for both parties for most of the season.  However, with the number of carries trending towards 50-50, I feel like we're now getting to a point where Moss is becoming the easier selection based on his clearly defined goalline role trumping whatever advantages Singletary has in the passing game.   With all of this said I feel completely left out at this stage; the Bills offense is really good, better than advertised, and yet the top RB of the bunch isn't anywhere near a 10.0 avg in .5 PPR.   In general, Singletary and Moss have been mid to lower end RB3s.    It just doesn't add up and I feel like there's opportunity for regression to the mean in 2021.   Obviously the culprit has been a whole lot of TD passes to receivers.  Singletary hasn't been able to get in on the fun.   There have also been a lot of Allen short yardage TD runs that has left Moss high and dry.   Allen is clearly a great commodity that will continue to throw and run for TDs, but I do expect the RBs to get into the act more in 2021, and I think we might still see signs of it this postseason.  Furthermore, I think the Bills have had a rather un-Bills like run of late season games where the deep passing game hasn't been greatly hampered by weather conditions.

In short, I feel like this offense is locked and loaded for years and that the betting money is on it spitting out a legit top 20-24 RB.    If you own both and one of them gets nicked, I feel like there's potential fantasy gold, or at least high-end RB2 production.  Of the two, I think Moss is the guy and I value him over Singletary.   If you have Moss, I feel like now is the time to scoop up Singletary for cheap to lock it down.   If you own Singletary or even if you don't, I don't think there are many Moss owners who don't feel somewhat underwhelmed by the fantasy production at this point.   We had a false mid-season breakout against NE, but then nothing to get too excited about since.    If this guy gets a couple of short TDs on his way to a 25-point day in the divisional round, the jig is up, it will be too late to buy in at a reasonable price.   The risk is that the Bills decide that they can upgrade RB and look outside for a  bellcow in 2021  (A. Jones or draft one of the few top prospects).    I don't think that's too likely and I don't get the sense that there's disappointment in what they currently have.    The more likely scary scenario is that they decide to find a third weapon to add to the backfield mix.   Given the way this backfield monopoly has worked out to date, I certainly can't rule this out.         

 
Samuel is very interesting...a lot to process with him...a boatload of talent and another guy who does not appear to be aging as he is only 24...gonna be an UFA...after teasing us for while he appears to be "settling in" in kind of a hybrid role which can be tricky to figure out fantasywise...do the Panthers re-sign him (they seem to be in decent cap shape) or does a team make him a silly offer (at his age that is a possibility) and if he goes elsewhere is he used the same way...great call putting him on this list...how do you value him right now?
I just offered the 2.08 for Samuel and was shot down. Will try and add to it. My hope is he moves on where he'll be featured more as a traditional reciever. I think he proved he can handle the gig this year.

 
Rashaad Penny may be SEA's RB1 next year. Both Carson and Hyde are FAs. SEA not much cap space. Penny if you remember was their 1st rd pick in 2018. A sneaky claim right now.
I picked up Penny in my salary cap/auction league last offseason (I'm a Carson owner) and stashed him on my IR for the season. Got him for $1/5 yrs so no investment other than tying up an IR spot for the year.

 
This. I own Henry & Kamara and just missed out on b2b ships with them. If I can get Swift/Taylor+ for one of them I think I'd do it. Post-Brees Kamara is a scary thought.
I have a similar concern. I'd like to sell Kamara in the one league where I have him, but I think the window may have been in-season (for teams not competing this past season, obviously). Maybe I'm wrong but I think many people will lower his value because of the QB change.

 
I have a similar concern. I'd like to sell Kamara in the one league where I have him, but I think the window may have been in-season (for teams not competing this past season, obviously). Maybe I'm wrong but I think many people will lower his value because of the QB change.
I suspect the fact that he set records on championship week will stick in people’s minds.

Guys I’m buying: Jerry Jeudy and to a lesser extent Henry Ruggs- remember when the 3rd or 4th year breakout was a thing? Neither guy landed in an ideal spot but both have upside for days and have lost a lot of value. No hesitation giving a late first for Jeudy or a high 2nd for Ruggs.

Guys I’m selling: Shenault and Chark- I’ve heard a lot of chatter about Jags WRs upside with Lawrence and you can probably find buyers. My gut says there will be growing pains even with T-law and neither guy is special so neither will meet expectations. Viska reminds me of Cordarrelle Patterson, not in a good way. I see the team investing in a true #1 early on, possibly several big time pass catchers, early in Trevor’s career.

 
Some buys, some mentioned already and I'll try and give at least one player per position and I'm looking at mainly looking at bargains:

Wentz- he's got the tools and he's been an elite fantasy QB, should be close to free and I think the situation in Philly has been horrible for him and I can see some places a fresh start would be a boon for him.

Penny-mentioned already and I agree with exactly what was said.

Vaughn- James White signing in Tampa assuming Brady runs it back is a concern but if not Vaughn should at minimum have the third down role next year and ROJO will be entering the last year of his deal to boot.  He looked quite good to me against the woeful Lions and never forget David Johnson spent his rookie season with Arians buried behind Chris Johnson and Ellington until they got hurt.

Jeff Wilson- he's a RFA so SF can keep him if they want and that's probably a good bet but the offense could take a meteoric rise when everyone is healthy and possibly a new QB is brought in and if Mostert is his main comp odds suggest Wilson's time won't be long. I believe Tevin and Mckinnon's contract have run out.

Gallup-not sure what he cost, was really low before last week and still suspect pretty low. Might be third banana another year, maybe, but Amari, Lamb and Gallup won't all be Cowboys in 2022.

Jeudy- who was just mentioned, had an awful game this week and in general seems out of sync with Lock but I think his talent is big time and he'll get it together.  Needs to strengthen up and Sutton might actually help him, just think he might be a good buy low if not now when all the rookie fever sets on in the incoming WR group might be a time to pluck Juedy up. Same thing for Gallup. If they are cheap now great I'd buy, if not I think a great time to trade for players like this is during or leading up to your rookie drafts when fever sets in.

Ty Hilton-dynasty buys don't always have to be young guys. Hilton is pretty cheap right now, was cut in some leagues of mine during the season. His play picked up but  Rivers is not really very WR fantasy friendly and the past few weeks despite how well Hilton has played he's been running third most snaps at WR on a team that likes to run and throw a lot to RB's. He's a FA and what I'm trying to say is a new handpicked destination might be a win for him.

Antonio Brown- again they don't always have to be young.  Like Hilton also a FA but assuming he remains out of trouble being able to actually join whatever team he is playing with in training camp and begin the season vs an almost 1.5 year total absence and joining a team that already has an established pecking order in mid season  should be a huge difference. His best case scenario would be Tampa not resigning Godwin and instead resigning him but I don't know about that, still think like Hilton that despite his age he can still run and still has a big time season or two left in him. I think were AB and Hilton are playing next year are more impactful then any loss of ability from their peak days. In fact while I list them as people I would buy I'd also say I will cut them both in some smaller roster  FFPC  leagues if I don't like were they land.

Gerald Everett for the reasons already mentioned but by also by virtue of him leaving the Rams I think you got to bump up Higbee as well.

Kmet- they probably cut Graham but even if the stays he won't be that much of a bother. Kyle Rudolph floor, difference making ceiling.

Irv Smith-speaking of Rudolph he may or may not return, my guess is he won't and this guy produces when he's giving a shot. Have said about him in the past he's a Jordan Reed level talent without the injury issues.

 
Good thread and lots of interesting mentions so far. Here are a few more I'm considering buying -

Washington pass catchers - AGG, Sims 1 and Sims 2, Logan Thomas. QB play cannot be worse. Great skill players with these and the RBs.

late 1st and 2nd round 2021 rookie picks - another very deep draft, but people won't know how good some of these guys are and maybe they'll take the sure thing for it.

Mostert - depends how cheap he is but he's a beast rb1 when healthy

Denzel Mims - poor man version of DJ Chark buy low

 
The collective scuttlebutt forecasts inevitable doom on Zeke. As I write this, folks are tossing dirt on his proverbial grave. He’s only 26 and should have Dak and a healthy line next year. He is absolutely a top 5 back for me. Take advantage of the groupthink and buy for .85 cents on the dollar- you will get top level production for at least 2-3 seasons. He is making an obscene amount of money- so they will use him extensively. Pollard may cut slightly into his snaps, but Zeke will again be a bell cow- a truly difficult commodity to find.
I have put some time into looking at this and posted some of the things I have found.

I agree with you that he is a good buy target right now and I think the idea of his game being in decline is wrong and that he still has two possibly 3 strong seasons left in his career.

He has reached an point where a very young star RB can be argued against him due to productive seasons left. Swift and Taylor were 21 year old RB coming in. I don't think anyone would take these guys ahead of Elliot right now, but by the mid to end point of 2021 if they are producing similarly well to Elliot then maybe things will shift in their favor because of the quality years remaining. I don't think any of them have done enough to make that argument right now.

 
I think I recall last year people saying to move on from Kamara. Not going to happen here. Maybe because he was a 2nd rd rookie pick for me or maybe because whoever is playing QB for the Saints post Brees will learn to throw a dump off pass to him. Dudes legit. In his 4th (and final) game with Taysom at the helm he received 10 targets in the passing game. He carries the ball a dozen times per game and will catch a handful of passes but I never recall seeing him take a big hit. 

 
If I own Zack Moss or Singletary, I would try to pick the other one up for cheap.
Great write up on Moss/Singletary.

As a Singletary owner from the beginning, I would take Moss over Singletary in a heartbeat. While it’s been a frustrating split for both sides,  I think Moss at least has the possibility of being the workhorse in the future. I can’t see Singletary ever being the guy - the drafting of Moss was a clear sign that the coaching staff likes Singletary in a part time role. Many owners like myself probably refused to fully embrace this. 

 
Buy

JuJu - sucky yardage but 91 rec and 8 TDs is nice. Won't command the price tag that he once seemed like he would. Just turned 24 years of age a month ago. 

David Montgomery - been tearing it up over the past 5 games. Even Matt Nagy is smart enough to realize that good things are happening the more he touches the ball as he's toted the rock 55(!) times the last 2 weeks. 

Kareem Hunt - still just 25 years old. One year left on his contract with the Browns. 

Josh Allen - never thought I'd say this but with his talent and that team in that division I see years of continued dominance ahead for him. (*I only play in a 1QB league and the guy also has Lamar. I might not have to break the bank to get him. Hopefully.)

Sell

Joe Mixon - might have to wait until he starts producing again but then I'll see what I can get. Would probably have more success moving him in the off-season if Burrow didn't get hurt. 

DeAndre Hopkins - oh, how I love thee Nuk but I fear that this may be the time to try and move on from him to secure a younger up-and-coming WR and a draft pick or some such. Will be 29 in June. 

Jalen Hurts - again, I only play in a 1QB league so it will probably be hard for me to move him and I'll more than likely keep him for depth. I'll try and include him in a package offer for Allen I suppose. See what happens. 

 
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menobrown said:
Vaughn- James White signing in Tampa assuming Brady runs it back is a concern but if not Vaughn should at minimum have the third down role next year and ROJO will be entering the last year of his deal to boot.  He looked quite good to me against the woeful Lions and never forget David Johnson spent his rookie season with Arians buried behind Chris Johnson and Ellington until they got hurt.
The bolded is why I am holding on to Vaughn with some guarded optimism. While Jones has exceeded most people’s expectations this year, he’s got some limitations in his game. Unlike Jones, Vaughn was an Arians draft pick and never underestimate a coach’s desire to eventually insert his own guys, especially an RB friendly coach like Arians.

 
tombonneau said:
This. I own Henry & Kamara and just missed out on b2b ships with them. If I can get Swift/Taylor+ for one of them I think I'd do it. Post-Brees Kamara is a scary thought.
As someone who also owns Henry and Kamara, I hope I’m not just getting big eyes for my own players here, but I am not in a hurry to move them. I recognize that means I’ll likely miss the window and they may retire off my roster. But both are unique runners who don’t seem to take a ton of big hits and may have atypical aging curves, and as I just won back to back ships with em myself and will be the favorite going into next year (in large part due to their production), I have a hard time seeing them being worth more to the teams holding these young guys than they are to me. If you can get a young guy who’s almost as good plus a first go for it, but the swift and Gibson owners didn’t make the playoffs and aren’t likely to throw a potentially high first at trading in their 2nd year guy for an older guy. I’m not really trying to gamble on a Taylor/dobbins type duplicating championship level production as someone who’s winning now and collecting all the prize money. If that means I’m rebuilding 4 years down the line so be it

 
humpback said:
Huh? He didn't hit 10 or 110 once this season with any QB (granted, he got close). He put up decent numbers with Hill, but zero TD's and he faced terrible defenses in those games.
A thousand pardons, your majesty. He showed he can be a 9/100 guy with Hill. My point is even with Hill in he showed he could be a consistent ppr machine. Throwing out the bizarre Denver game he was:

  • 9/104
  • 9/105
  • 8/84
Obviously ypc is puke but that's another 120+ catch season.

But your stance is the exact reason why I list him as a great buy. :)  He's an easy guy for two people to have drastic opposite opinions of.

 
As someone who also owns Henry and Kamara, I hope I’m not just getting big eyes for my own players here, but I am not in a hurry to move them. I recognize that means I’ll likely miss the window and they may retire off my roster. But both are unique runners who don’t seem to take a ton of big hits and may have atypical aging curves, and as I just won back to back ships with em myself and will be the favorite going into next year (in large part due to their production), I have a hard time seeing them being worth more to the teams holding these young guys than they are to me. If you can get a young guy who’s almost as good plus a first go for it, but the swift and Gibson owners didn’t make the playoffs and aren’t likely to throw a potentially high first at trading in their 2nd year guy for an older guy. I’m not really trying to gamble on a Taylor/dobbins type duplicating championship level production as someone who’s winning now and collecting all the prize money. If that means I’m rebuilding 4 years down the line so be it
Yeah I feel you. I'm in no hurry, and I had eeked out a win in the semis I might rightfully have that same entrenched endowment effect bias as you. I think you're totally right though in that it will be tough to have a good trading partner who can send you a back in return. The only good way to move them is if you yourself are already sitting on a Dobbins or Swift and can roll the dice moving one for a top tier WR +

 
Boston said:
Here are some buys:

Brandon Aiyuk-The kid is a monster...won't come cheap but this maybe the cheapest you will get him.

Mike Gesicki-Right on the verge of a major breakout.

Allen Robinson-Somehow only 27 years old...gonna be a UFA...we know his floor with the Bears but what happens if he goes to a plum landing spot.

Michael Pittman-Injury limited his rookie year but he looks like the real deal.

Noah Fant-Just a matter of time before he joins that upper-tier of TEs.

Josh Reynolds-gotta believe the Rams let him walk...possibility he goes to a place where he gets a chance to start.

Will Fuller-The Texans want to keep Deshaun happy and they don't have a pick in the first two rounds...my guess is they re-sign him and he picks up where he left off. 
Gesicki is a great call. This late season injury has dented him a bit, if he had been healthy I bet he would still be tearing it up and be harder to land.

Aiyuk, as someone said, love the player, hate the situation. The offense still runs through Kittle, and then it's 1A/B with Deebo. I think Aiyuk is the kind of guy you wait to get end of next year or mid-season where he's had a 5 game stretch with like 10 catches. Because the talent is there and his situation will change. I just don't think it makes sense to pay a premium now when he's gonna be starting next year as potentially the 3rd or tied for second option on a run first team with question marks at QB.

Robinson is a great buy, WR1 at WR2 prices.

 
Boston said:
Samuel is very interesting...a lot to process with him...a boatload of talent and another guy who does not appear to be aging as he is only 24...gonna be an UFA...after teasing us for while he appears to be "settling in" in kind of a hybrid role which can be tricky to figure out fantasywise...do the Panthers re-sign him (they seem to be in decent cap shape) or does a team make him a silly offer (at his age that is a possibility) and if he goes elsewhere is he used the same way...great call putting him on this list...how do you value him right now?
Where can I go in Vegas to bet on Samuel signing with the Pats? Seems like a total Pats WR and 100% target for them. Not sure that's a good thing for his fantasy value though. :)

 
Where can I go in Vegas to bet on Samuel signing with the Pats? Seems like a total Pats WR and 100% target for them. Not sure that's a good thing for his fantasy value though. :)
I'm with you but the issue with that is you're gonna have a lot of competition as every WR (and QB and probably TE) is gonna get linked to the Pats...their WR unit is an absolute disaster...no doubt he is a great fit, the age is right, they definitely have the cap space and there is no way they can solve their WR issues simply thru the draft...overall, this is shaping up to be the most fascinating offseason in the BB era...usually the least fun day to be a Patriot fan is the first day of free agency because it is typically a very quiet day but gotta believe that changes this year.

 
Gesicki is a great call. This late season injury has dented him a bit, if he had been healthy I bet he would still be tearing it up and be harder to land.

Aiyuk, as someone said, love the player, hate the situation. The offense still runs through Kittle, and then it's 1A/B with Deebo. I think Aiyuk is the kind of guy you wait to get end of next year or mid-season where he's had a 5 game stretch with like 10 catches. Because the talent is there and his situation will change. I just don't think it makes sense to pay a premium now when he's gonna be starting next year as potentially the 3rd or tied for second option on a run first team with question marks at QB.

Robinson is a great buy, WR1 at WR2 prices.
Sounds like I am going to be in the minority with Aiyuk but I am all in on him...fully understand your analysis and it makes a ton of sense but I think those players may open up things for him and we also have to remember he did a lot of damage with Mullens throwing to him as well...even if his targets are not huge I think like AJ Brown he is so talented he will be very productive.

 
Sounds like I am going to be in the minority with Aiyuk but I am all in on him...fully understand your analysis and it makes a ton of sense but I think those players may open up things for him and we also have to remember he did a lot of damage with Mullens throwing to him as well...even if his targets are not huge I think like AJ Brown he is so talented he will be very productive.
It’s really hard to say until he plays with a healthy Deebo. I think he is more talented than Aiyuk. However, I think its going to come down to how each is used in the offense and it could change game to game. Definitely a 1A/1B situation. 

 
It’s really hard to say until he plays with a healthy Deebo. I think he is more talented than Aiyuk. However, I think its going to come down to how each is used in the offense and it could change game to game. Definitely a 1A/1B situation. 
Agree that we have not seen them together so there is a definite unknown (the QB situation is also not settled yet as well)...I also think your point about game situations is very legit, especially with how they have used Deebo although they used Aiyuk in a few running situations as well that resulted in two TDs...if these three can stay on the field together this could turn into a dynamic offense but I do have serious concerns about Kittle's health because he just plays so hard, reminds me of Gronk where every time he gets hit I'm nervous he got hurt...ultimately I just have one of those fantasy-crushes on Aiyuk and I can site a bunch of past examples where I was absolutely right and totally whiffed on that feeling...will be real interesting to see how this offense looks next year as it has a chance to be a sleeping giant.

 
Agree that we have not seen them together so there is a definite unknown (the QB situation is also not settled yet as well)...I also think your point about game situations is very legit, especially with how they have used Deebo although they used Aiyuk in a few running situations as well that resulted in two TDs...if these three can stay on the field together this could turn into a dynamic offense but I do have serious concerns about Kittle's health because he just plays so hard, reminds me of Gronk where every time he gets hit I'm nervous he got hurt...ultimately I just have one of those fantasy-crushes on Aiyuk and I can site a bunch of past examples where I was absolutely right and totally whiffed on that feeling...will be real interesting to see how this offense looks next year as it has a chance to be a sleeping giant.
I am right there with you on Aiyuk.  I like Deebo, but he plays WR like a RB.  Aiyuk is a more traditional WR.  He looks to me like an emerging young talent at the WR position. If I had not already drafted Aiyuk, I would be trying to get him on my dynasty roster.  

 
A thousand pardons, your majesty. He showed he can be a 9/100 guy with Hill. My point is even with Hill in he showed he could be a consistent ppr machine. Throwing out the bizarre Denver game he was:

  • 9/104
  • 9/105
  • 8/84
Obviously ypc is puke but that's another 120+ catch season.

But your stance is the exact reason why I list him as a great buy. :)  He's an easy guy for two people to have drastic opposite opinions of.
When you say someone showed "that he can still be a 10/110 guy week in and week out.", and they haven't achieved either of those numbers even a single time, that's quite the hyperbole.

You can't "throw out" the Denver game, and the bottom line is that he was WR #13, 46, 23, and 22 in PPR during that 4 game stretch with Hill, with 2 of those games against the dreadful Falcons pass defense and another against a bad Philly D. I wouldn't call that "a consistent ppr machine" either.  :)

I don't necessarily disagree that he could be a good buy low candidate (I think almost everyone is for the right price), but it's not because of the numbers he put up with Hill. I doubt we'll be able to buy him as a #2/#3 WR, which is essentially what he was with him- you're buying hoping that he'll get healthy and bounce back to at least a lower end #1 WR. The QB situation is a big concern for me, I wouldn't be a buyer without a fairly significant discount to account for that uncertainty, and I really don't think his value is any higher now than it was mid-season.

 
Biabreakable said:
I have put some time into looking at this and posted some of the things I have found.

I agree with you that he is a good buy target right now and I think the idea of his game being in decline is wrong and that he still has two possibly 3 strong seasons left in his career.

He has reached an point where a very young star RB can be argued against him due to productive seasons left. Swift and Taylor were 21 year old RB coming in. I don't think anyone would take these guys ahead of Elliot right now, but by the mid to end point of 2021 if they are producing similarly well to Elliot then maybe things will shift in their favor because of the quality years remaining. I don't think any of them have done enough to make that argument right now.
:hey:

Don't think I'm the only one, I see several dynasty rankings with both Swift and Taylor above Zeke, and if by mid/end of next year they are producing similarly I think they'll be way ahead of him due to the age difference.

Zeke is similar to Thomas to me- would definitely be interested in buying low, but don't think most owners will be willing to sell at a price where I'm comfortable- still too much name premium IMO.

 

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