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Dynasty Buy and Sell Targets


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3 minutes ago, humpback said:

:hey:

Don't think I'm the only one, I see several dynasty rankings with both Swift and Taylor above Zeke, and if by mid/end of next year they are producing similarly I think they'll be way ahead of him due to the age difference.

Zeke is similar to Thomas to me- would definitely be interested in buying low, but don't think most owners will be willing to sell at a price where I'm comfortable- still too much name premium IMO.

He is at that tipping point right now. You are right that you are not alone in wanting to go younger here. That split might be 50/50 now depending on who you talk to, not sure. Maybe we should do a poll on that.

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Rashaad Penny may be SEA's RB1 next year. Both Carson and Hyde are FAs. SEA not much cap space. Penny if you remember was their 1st rd pick in 2018. A sneaky claim right now.

I would not hesitate to take them over Zeke.

21 hours ago, Boston said:

Good points and I understand them but I think he is so talented they will not hold him back...he is one of my top targets this offseason.

This is where I am with Aiyuk. I bought just after the Patriots game and despite the Covid stint, his production out of my WR3 spot was a huge factor in reaching the finals in two dynasty leagues. 

Shanny feeds his X receiver, and everyone has always said there’s too many mouths to feed in that offense, but I disagree. I think he’s been hunting for his alpha WR to complement Kittle (drafting Pettis second round, then drafting Deebo second round, then finally paying up with a first for Aiyuk).  Andre Johnson, Julio Jones, Pierre Garçon - that’s the role he’s been trying to fill in his offense, and he’s got it in Aiyuk. 

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14 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

Solid list by menobrown. There are a few I disagree with but thats part of what makes those players good buys.

Thanks and my post was mainly  about the fringe cheap to borderline free guys or buy lows.  When discussing that range of players at best I'd certainly expect some disagreements.

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21 minutes ago, JFS171 said:

Shanny feeds his X receiver, and everyone has always said there’s too many mouths to feed in that offense, but I disagree. I think he’s been hunting for his alpha WR to complement Kittle (drafting Pettis second round, then drafting Deebo second round, then finally paying up with a first for Aiyuk).  Andre Johnson, Julio Jones, Pierre Garçon - that’s the role he’s been trying to fill in his offense, and he’s got it in Aiyuk. 

I believe he found his Garcon with Deebo so I am one who believes the mouths to feed is the main issue with Aiyuk, but it might be the only one.

 I think Aiyuk's talent is special. Deebo has to be schemed up a little bit more then Aiyuk and while Deebo is a unique talent I don't think it's particularly close between the two with Aiyuk clearly the all around superior talent. Kyle might be best offensive mind in the game and one of the best at scheming players open, not that I would foresee Deebo not being coached by Kyle anytime soon I do think Deebo needs him more then Aiyuk who would be a star in just about any situation. I will not argue if the target situation works out the sky is the limit for him.

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Gabriel Davis has been mentioned already

Marquez Calloway is another that interests me, though the QB situation there makes this a bit more dicey

Freddy Swain might be 2 years away still but I think he'll continue to increase his targets.

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21 minutes ago, menobrown said:

Thanks and my post was mainly  about the fringe cheap to borderline free guys or buy lows.  When discussing that range of players at best I'd certainly expect some disagreements.

Yeah I would not want Wentz right now but thats exactly why he is a good buy. Similarly Brown who I may be wrong about treating like Josh Gordon.

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18 hours ago, farfromforgotten said:

Jalen Hurts - again, I only play in a 1QB league so it will probably be hard for me to move him and I'll more than likely keep him for depth. I'll try and include him in a package offer for Allen I suppose. See what happens. 

 

If you would, expand on your thought process with Hurts a little... because if you are right (that he won't pan out and now is the time to move him), I'll bet that you could get WAY more than you paid for him.  My take is that all arrows are pointing up on him right now.  I definitely would take him off your hands.  Tell me why I shouldn't.

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25 minutes ago, steeler6 said:

Laviska Shenault. Thanks to the Jets being the Jets, he'll have the next big thing at QB throwing to him. 

I've owned Chark and am pumped about Lawrence. Mid season I couldn't pass up a deal that included Shenault. Wasn't too happy with having two Jags pass catchers but now it's not looking so bad. I, like you, am excited about the future of this offense.

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36 minutes ago, pinequick said:

If you would, expand on your thought process with Hurts a little... because if you are right (that he won't pan out and now is the time to move him), I'll bet that you could get WAY more than you paid for him.  My take is that all arrows are pointing up on him right now.  I definitely would take him off your hands.  Tell me why I shouldn't.

Yeah. Well, I paid nothing for him. Just a FA pickup during the year because A. Dak got hurt, B. My backups were Cam and Lock, and C. Wentz was struggling. 

I don't dislike Hurts but in a 1QB league I'd rather have a more established stud at the position. He helped deliver me a title this year but I think Hurts will have some up and down performances next year and I'm in a good spot to repeat. I'm a little concerned about Dak's future and like I said the guy in my league that has Lamar Jackson also has Josh Allen. 

I have very good depth at WR and, to a lesser extent, RB. So for me I'm looking to move Hurts and a skill position player or two for Allen. 

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Buys: 

Jordan Love if the roster space is available. Fits today’s pro game from a physical standpoint and the longer he sits the better chance the mental side catches up to the physical traits. Stafford is probably cheap and if he ends up going somewhere else he could be a difference maker. If anyone is willing to sell Deshaun Watson at less than a top 5 QB price I am buying.

Running backs just don’t seem to last. Investing in young, talented backups seems to be a cheap option to get some good upside: AJ Dillon (probably too late), Darrynton Evans, Eno Benjamin, Rashaad Penny, Zack Moss....etc. as well as previously productive RBs coming back from injury: Marlon Mack, Tarik Cohen.

WRs at a decent cost/upside ratio: Preston Williams, Paris Campbell, Josh Reynolds, Devin Duvernay, Keelan Cole, Scott Miller.

Sells:

Lamar Jackson (last year was the sell year but if anyone if willing to pay close to last years prices I would be exiting), D’Andre Swift (it is the Lions, he has that to overcome), Jerry Jeudy (great young player, but many mouths to feed with Courtland coming back and no hand to feed them),

 

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3 hours ago, King of the Jungle said:

Buys: 

Jordan Love if the roster space is available. Fits today’s pro game from a physical standpoint and the longer he sits the better chance the mental side catches up to the physical traits. Stafford is probably cheap and if he ends up going somewhere else he could be a difference maker. If anyone is willing to sell Deshaun Watson at less than a top 5 QB price I am buying.

Running backs just don’t seem to last. Investing in young, talented backups seems to be a cheap option to get some good upside: AJ Dillon (probably too late)

WRs at a decent cost/upside ratio: Preston Williams

 

Dillon's breakout game doesn't mean it was too late. It was, if you drafted him, going to be a year regardless. His price just went up about a half a round (at least) from where one picked him after 21-124-1 against TN. 

Williams is a tough nut to crack. He wouldn't be cheap, but if Miami decides they're drafting WRs, which they are likely going to do, he might be good to get out from under of. I roster him and would be open to offers for on the cheap (I'm thinking second-round here, nothing too cheap). 

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3 hours ago, King of the Jungle said:

Same, but depending on roster size he may be worth the stash. Wish he were anywhere else really, but things change fast and talent will usually win in the end.

Applaud the effort to convince me... but I just reviewed Lamar's stats for the season.  Great, perhaps, if he is your fantasy QB but not much on the passing side of the ledger.  Not a single 300 yard game and just five 200 yards games.  That's a small pie to share when the team throws for 180 yards. 

I just don't like their formula.  Let your backs run the ball...  Not built to come from behind...  maybe even one dimensional. 

 

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Echo the sentiments on Samuel but as someone who targeted him last offseason specifically for his free agency, I’m wondering now whether it would actually be better for him to stay in Carolina. Rhule seems to have unlocked him a bit and understands how to best utilise him (including using him as a runner). That may not happen on a lot of other teams, even if he gets paid. 

I might add my own list at some point but right now I have to say Jeff Wilson with a shot at a starting job in SF next year is very interesting to me.

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Here’s my general list: Some have been mentioned already if not most of them. 

buying - Higgins, Goedert, tonyan, Godwin, DJ Moore, Sutton, Chark, Deebo, Gabriel Davis, Mims, Miles Sanders, Edwards, Reagor, Gallup, Preston Williams, Tyler Johnson, Eno Benjamin, KeShawn Vaughn, Deejay Dallas, DPJ, Collin Johnson, Bowden

selling - Dalvin, Kamara, MT, Davante, Nuk, Henry, Kelce, Jacob’s, Zeke, Chubb, Ridley, Michel, Robby, any other TE not named Kittle/Hockenson

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12 hours ago, rockaction said:

Dillon's breakout game doesn't mean it was too late. It was, if you drafted him, going to be a year regardless. His price just went up about a half a round (at least) from where one picked him after 21-124-1 against TN. 

Williams is a tough nut to crack. He wouldn't be cheap, but if Miami decides they're drafting WRs, which they are likely going to do, he might be good to get out from under of. I roster him and would be open to offers for on the cheap (I'm thinking second-round here, nothing too cheap). 

It may not be too late to acquire Dillon but as someone who has him I am not letting go without an overpay.

I guess it depends on the league, Preston is on the waivers in ours. Not saying he should be but with uneven performance and two season ending injuries it is not out of the question. I would bet Miami spends an early pick on a receiver then your probably waiting to see if he can make more noise on his second contract.

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On 12/29/2020 at 3:13 PM, sushinsky4tsar said:

 

If I own Zack Moss or Singletary, I would try to pick the other one up for cheap. 

Usually I'm big on owning a backfield but this is not one of those cases. The largest roster sized dynasty league I play is 22 in-season, 18 off-season and most of them are FFPC style with basically two less then what I just referenced.

I bring up roster size because to me owning both Bill RB', based on what I saw this year, is a tremendous roster drain because neither represent a usable or at least a player you want to use unless one of them gets hurt. If roster size was larger I might see this differently but to me owning both of them is to much dead weight.

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On 12/30/2020 at 3:36 AM, tombonneau said:

A thousand pardons, your majesty. He showed he can be a 9/100 guy with Hill. My point is even with Hill in he showed he could be a consistent ppr machine. Throwing out the bizarre Denver game he was:

  • 9/104
  • 9/105
  • 8/84

Obviously ypc is puke but that's another 120+ catch season.

But your stance is the exact reason why I list him as a great buy. :) He's an easy guy for two people to have drastic opposite opinions of.

Thought he was incredibly overrated coming in to this year and certainly didn't change my mind. Getting close to 30, qb is leaving, banged up all year, got suspended for punching a teammate. The warning signs are all there and he's still a top 5 dynasty wr. I don't get it.

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On 12/29/2020 at 12:20 PM, Concept Coop said:

I’d also be pretty motivated to turn Cook, Henry, or Kamara into someone like Swift/Gibson/Taylor+.
 

I have two Kamara/Cook teams and just last week I was looking at it and decided when trading opens up I would try and move Cook on one of them, but not Kamara.

I say no to Kamara because I think at this time his price might be suffering from Taysom Hill fears. I'd rather hold on and see if Taysom does not stick as the starter or Kamara puts post-Brees fear to rest.

But the other thing is mainly health related.  It's Dalvin's 4th year in the league and it's only two of those years did was he much use the big 15-16 weeks and it was scary getting to that point this year.  I can't think of a player who causes me more worry right now, seems like once a week he's rolling around on the ground ailing and I'm thinking I've lost him and then he turns out to be just fine. Add to that fact he got rode ridicilously hard down the stretch and I am of the opinion right now it might be a great window to move him.

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25 minutes ago, menobrown said:

I have two Kamara/Cook teams and just last week I was looking at it and decided when trading opens up I would try and move Cook on one of them, but not Kamara.

I say no to Kamara because I think at this time his price might be suffering from Taysom Hill fears. I'd rather hold on and see if Taysom does not stick as the starter or Kamara puts post-Brees fear to rest.

But the other thing is mainly health related.  It's Dalvin's 4th year in the league and it's only two of those years did was he much use the big 15-16 weeks and it was scary getting to that point this year.  I can't think of a player who causes me more worry right now, seems like once a week he's rolling around on the ground ailing and I'm thinking I've lost him and then he turns out to be just fine. Add to that fact he got rode ridicilously hard down the stretch and I am of the opinion right now it might be a great window to move him.

I can relate to what you are saying. I feel the same way when I see him wincing in pain and wondering if the injury will be worse than it has ended up being this season. He did have the groin injury that cost him a game. He has missed 2 or more games every season. The game he will miss this week is for another reason. Condolences to Cook for his loss. He had the ACL injury his rookie season.

He hasn't been the most durable guy. He runs harder than a lot of people might think and he takes some hard tackles in the process of doing that. It comes with the position but the way Kamara plays by comparison, its less risky I think to his health than what Cook does. Cook is good at making defenders miss too. He just tries to deliver the blow and gain yards after contact more. So I guess that would be a difference on the durability/longevity risks.

Cook had 4 games where he touched the ball 30 or more times. He had one game with 38 against Jacksonville. Although there has been a lot of talk about Cooks workload this season I don't think its too excessive. Ever since the Falcons game the team has been more reluctant to play Mattison as a CoP compared to what they used to do. Kubiak is less RBBC than his predecessors.

He will be 26 years old next season. So to get top value for him now makes sense from that perspective.

What can you get for him that would actually improve your team though? He is a combination of talent and situation thats near impossible to replace.

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Surprising Aaron Jones name hasn't come up yet. I'm sure I'm in the minority by considering him a buy. But everybody and their brother is apprehensive about his new team and trying to sell. The price could come down low enough to make even his worst case scenario a worthwhile get. 

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2 hours ago, cloppbeast said:

Surprising Aaron Jones name hasn't come up yet. I'm sure I'm in the minority by considering him a buy. But everybody and their brother is apprehensive about his new team and trying to sell. The price could come down low enough to make even his worst case scenario a worthwhile get. 

Nobody denies his talent, but he’s definitely injury prone and I doubt he could carry an offense and handle 20 plus touches a week. The Pack figured out the perfect formula 

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3 hours ago, FGITLOTR said:

Nobody denies his talent, but he’s definitely injury prone and I doubt he could carry an offense and handle 20 plus touches a week. The Pack figured out the perfect formula 

LaFluer didn't think Derrick Henry could handle 20 touches a game either. 

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8 hours ago, voiceofunreason said:

Thought he was incredibly overrated coming in to this year and certainly didn't change my mind. Getting close to 30, qb is leaving, banged up all year, got suspended for punching a teammate. The warning signs are all there and he's still a top 5 dynasty wr. I don't get it.

2019

149 1,725 9

2018

125 1,405 9

2017 

104 1,245 5

2016

92 1,137 9

Incredibly overrated? Sure, maybe you didn't expect 150 more catches for 1700 yards but come on. He was as sure as a thing coming into this year as any player in FF. Also, he's 27.

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i'd buy the efficient WRs and fade the inefficient ones that had higher volume.

a lot of superstar WRs pop in yards per target right out of the gate and a lot of fool's gold was propped by volume. (think kelvin benjamin (6.9 yards per target) and justin blackmon (6.6))

higgins (8.6), lamb (8.7) & jefferson (11.2) really don't need to be mentioned. they're studs and it shows up in their elite efficiency.

but pittman (8.2) & mims (8.0) are really nice buys as they're generally valued below several of the following players.

claypool's efficiency (7.9) is way out in front of his teammates, so he seems like an awesome buy to me.

jeudy (6.8) and reagor (7.2) worry me. i know their QB situations have been crap but so have a lot of the rookies in this class. and both trail several teammates, including their tight ends, which is a red flag to me.

mooney (6.3) & hamler (6.8) are sells for anything.

aiyuk (7.8) has been pretty efficient, but like jeudy & reagor, he's trailing his teammates and tight end. he seems like a great sell high since a lot of people are enamored with his volume.

shenault's (7.6) is in the grey area but like claypool and unlike jeudy, reagor & aiyuk, he's well in front of most of his teammates. he seems like a great candidate to really benefit with a better qb next year, especially since a lot of the dynasty focus seems to be on chark.

ruggs (10.4) is weird. his efficiency has been awesome but his lack of volume is concerning... i'd probably hold and hope for the best.

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Ruggs's volume, always a concern going into drafting him (would he only be used for a decoy and field stretcher?), isn't there at all. We'll see what an off-season and a camp do for him. They wanted him to improve his route running, so we don't know if his routes don't demand volume or whether volume just isn't coming his way because of game plan and quarterback play. Hopefully he's not somebody that washes by the wayside of potential. But in response to upthread, Agholor isn't even signed next season. We'll see what the Raiders do with Agholor and what kind of market he commands. If they sign him to a big deal, then I'd worry for Ruggs's sake.

If I may ask, what are the numbers in the parenthesis, strong? Yards per target?

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Important to remember Reagor's August injury. Even with the time off for the thumb injury it wasn't healed and requires an offseason surgery to fix. He was playing with a more restrictive catch radius all season. 

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1 hour ago, crushedspirit said:

Ruggs worries most due to Agholar taking that role over and running away with it. Don't see how he can unseat him going forward.

I would be curious if someone had All-22 to see what is going on. The strange thing is that he plays a high percentage of snaps but just doesn’t get looks. I assume his route running is the problem or he is getting jammed/re-routed because quarterbacks tend to throw to open receivers. Obviously if he just running straight ahead to clear space that could be an issue as well. But if that is the case that would indicate the staff not trusting him on other routes. Just bizarre how they don’t try to manufacture more touches for him given his big play ability.

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2 hours ago, rockaction said:

Ruggs's volume, always a concern going into drafting him (would he only be used for a decoy and field stretcher?), isn't there at all. We'll see what an off-season and a camp do for him. They wanted him to improve his route running, so we don't know if his routes don't demand volume or whether volume just isn't coming his way because of game plan and quarterback play. Hopefully he's not somebody that washes by the wayside of potential. But in response to upthread, Agholor isn't even signed next season. We'll see what the Raiders do with Agholor and what kind of market he commands. If they sign him to a big deal, then I'd worry for Ruggs's sake.

If I may ask, what are the numbers in the parenthesis, strong? Yards per target?

 

yeah. sorry if that wasn't clear. it's my favorite rookie WR stat and it's been pretty predictive the last 20 years.

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Looking into Ruggs stats more, I do see hope, especially if Agholar moves. Target separation of 2.44 was tops in the league, and his yards per target was 8th. He only had 3 drops, but where he struggled was his catch rate, (57.5%). Overall, 32 of his 40 targets were catchable, so I'm not sure what gives with 23 of those being completed. I think he's a wait and see, and I wouldn't give up on him after such a small sample size this season.

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5 minutes ago, crushedspirit said:

Looking into Ruggs stats more, I do see hope, especially if Agholar moves. Target separation of 2.44 was tops in the league, and his yards per target was 8th. He only had 3 drops, but where he struggled was his catch rate, (57.5%). Overall, 32 of his 40 targets were catchable, so I'm not sure what gives with 23 of those being completed. I think he's a wait and see, and I wouldn't give up on him after such a small sample size this season.

I think his catch rate doesn't correspond to a credited drop statistic because those passes are often twenty-plus yards down the field, so they're catchable but not counted as traditional drops due to the speed the players are moving at, the jostling for positioning going on, etc.

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1 minute ago, rockaction said:

I think his catch rate doesn't correspond to a credited drop statistic because those passes are often twenty-plus yards down the field, so they're catchable but not counted as traditional drops due to the speed the players are moving at, the jostling for positioning going on, etc.

That would explain it better for sure. His true catch rate sits him at #104, and his contested catch rate at #91. Those are main concerns, but it's a small sample size. The yards per target posted before is something to build on, as is the target separation he gets.

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4 minutes ago, crushedspirit said:

That would explain it better for sure. His true catch rate sits him at #104, and his contested catch rate at #91. Those are main concerns, but it's a small sample size. The yards per target posted before is something to build on, as is the target separation he gets.

Yeah, his aDOT is 17.63, sixth highest in the league. Mims, at around 15 yards, is twelfth. Jeudy is one of the only guys with 100 targets and a high aDOT of 14 plus, so that's something to go on, but his catch rate, around 45 percent, is abysmal. I've found that QBs like Rosen and Lock, gunslinger types that aren't that great, tend to have guys with high aDOTs and low catch rates for some reason.

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10 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Yeah, his aDOT is 17.63, sixth highest in the league. Mims, at around 15 yards, is twelfth. Jeudy is one of the only guys with 100 targets and a high aDOT of 14 plus, so that's something to go on, but his catch rate, around 45 percent, is abysmal. I've found that QBs like Rosen and Lock, gunslinger types that aren't that great, tend to have guys with high aDOTs and low catch rates for some reason.

A 57% catch rate at that aDOT is more than adequate. 

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3 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Yeah, his aDOT is 17.63, sixth highest in the league. Mims, at around 15 yards, is twelfth. Jeudy is one of the only guys with 100 targets and a high aDOT of 14 plus, so that's something to go on, but his catch rate, around 45 percent, is abysmal. I've found that QBs like Rosen and Lock, gunslinger types that aren't that great, tend to have guys with high aDOTs and low catch rates for some reason.

You hit the nail on the head with Jeudy and Lock. Drew needs to go before Jeudy  can reach next level. When I see 65 out of 106 targets deemed as catchable, you know where the problem lies. That's also why I'm high on Chark, with an aDOT around 14, yet poor QB play. Moore is another being held back in Carolina, but he also needs to clean up the drops. There are more out there that I will look into when I can.

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22 hours ago, cloppbeast said:

LaFluer didn't think Derrick Henry could handle 20 touches a game either. 

Horrible comparison. Jones has been injured multiple times, while Henry has been quite durable 

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20 hours ago, farfromforgotten said:

2019

149 1,725 9

2018

125 1,405 9

2017 

104 1,245 5

2016

92 1,137 9

Incredibly overrated? Sure, maybe you didn't expect 150 more catches for 1700 yards but come on. He was as sure as a thing coming into this year as any player in FF. Also, he's 27.

My leagues don't give points for previous years.

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1 hour ago, FGITLOTR said:

Horrible comparison. Jones has been injured multiple times, while Henry has been quite durable 

Well I wasn't comparing Henry with Aaron Jones. Comprehension is difficult for some people so I don't take it personally.

Henry has been quite durable and one of the best backs in the league. Despite these facts Coach LaFluer still used Dion Lewis quite a bit. So perhaps this is a LaFluer thing and not the Packers have figured how to use Aaron Jones.

.

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6 hours ago, crushedspirit said:

You hit the nail on the head with Jeudy and Lock. Drew needs to go before Jeudy  can reach next level. When I see 65 out of 106 targets deemed as catchable, you know where the problem lies. That's also why I'm high on Chark, with an aDOT around 14, yet poor QB play. Moore is another being held back in Carolina, but he also needs to clean up the drops. There are more out there that I will look into when I can.

As an "owner" (can I say that in 2021?) of Jeudy, Chark and Moore, this post pains me more than I can say.

ETA: Looking for Lawrence to the Jags; Fields to the Panthers; and I'm thinking Elway sticks with Lock.

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5 hours ago, DropKick said:

ETA: Looking for Lawrence to the Jags; Fields to the Panthers; and I'm thinking Elway sticks with Lock.

There is no "real" news here in Colorado about the Lock situation but the current scuttlebutt is that Lock/Elway/Fangio get one more shot next year due to the ton of injuries they had to deal with this year, primarily Von Miller and Sutton, that put them behind the 8 ball before the season even started.

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Thoughts on David Montgomery?

His overall stats aren't insane, but he was a monster down the stretch.  Sell high?  What are people getting for him or trying to get for him?

Or better to hold at this point?

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9 minutes ago, jm192 said:

Thoughts on David Montgomery?

His overall stats aren't insane, but he was a monster down the stretch.  Sell high?  What are people getting for him or trying to get for him?

Or better to hold at this point?

The way he's been playing since week 12, there would be no way anyone would take him from my roster if I had him. Waldman has a gut check article on this site, plus a video where he explains the maturation during this second season,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Pxn6oDkJsU

 

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