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2021 Las Vegas Raiders - PLAYOFFS!!!! (4 Viewers)

DocHolliday said:
I cant imagine any team giving up 2 first round picks for Carr.  
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At first blush I couldn't either. But he's coming off a career year with a reasonable contract. You might be able to get something along those lines—maybe a 1 and a 3. His value probably hasn't been higher.

But if they're gonna deal him it has to be for Watson, not for picks they don't know how to utilize. If you're gonna battle in a division with Mahomes it helps to have a Mahomes-type player. I'd much rather see 'em giving up picks for a franchise playr than hoarding 'em.

 
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DocHolliday said:
Carr isn’t going to play any better.  The O isn’t going to play any better.  If the D doesn’t make a big improvement, the team is 8-8 most seasons and 10-6 at best.  Some seasons the Raiders may sneak into the playoffs but aren’t even making it to the AFC championship with a good O and the current or slightly improved D.  I say swing for the fences with Mariotta and the draft picks.  
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Totally with you on the first part. I think we saw the best Derek Carr we're ever gonna see last year. That's why it would make sense to move him if it means landing Watson. But I totally disagree with you on the last part. Mariota had some electric moments in the game against the Chargers but he nearly threw three picks. He'd obviously give the offense a dimension it doesn't have but I think there would be too dramatic a downtick in other areas. I think he'd be a major step back from Carr. Gruden hasn't done much in his first three years but he has fixed Carr.

And as has been noted Gruden hasn't proven he can handle draft picks and not just with the Raiders. I'd say those grade out to middling. His drafts with the Bucs weren't even middling.

 
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DA RAIDERS said:
:lmao:   fair enough.  i guess you could call it mob thinking, i'd prefer to go with common sense.
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Common sense had guys like Ryan Leaf and Johnny Manziel going to the hall of fame while no one batted an eye Brady went in the 6th. 

Countless examples. 

Not impressed with so-called "common sense drafting"

 
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Chadstroma said:
Common sense had guys like Ryan Leaf and Johnny Manziel going to the hall of fame while no one batted an eye Brady went in the 6th. 

Countless examples. 

Not impressed with so-called "common sense drafting"
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Let's not forget.......gulp........Jamarcus Russell.

 
Watson is five years younger and five years better than Carr. Forget about stats, I am talking when the pressure is high and the pocket is collapsing. One guy keeps making plays, while the other folds. Years of evidence to back this up at this point.

What is that worth? I don't know, but if somehow a deal could be made with Carr + this yr's 1st rounder for Watson, I think it's a no brainer. Do the deal, then trade Marriota for a 3rd rounder. You end up even in cap terms, yet upgrade to a true elite QB who is only 25 yrs old, while only dropping down two rounds in the draft on net.

 
Chadstroma said:
Common sense had guys like Ryan Leaf and Johnny Manziel going to the hall of fame while no one batted an eye Brady went in the 6th. 

Countless examples. 

Not impressed with so-called "common sense drafting"
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c'mon dude.  brady is an anomaly  leaf was suspect in the head and the browns were clowned for taking manziel.

of course there are examples of common sense busts.  i'm just tired of the drafting the guy who has a hole in his heart, but should be fine.  especially in the first round!

 
You know, I'd take some pimple faced GM wannabe, keyboard warrior's analysis, over the Horror show that has been foisted on us over the last 30+ years. We're always reaching trying to show how GD smart we are. Been going on for Decades. Any argument that the "experts" and people that "do this for a living" know more means nothing to me. 2016-2018 drafts should be the cornerstone of our team. Other than Miller and Hurst, we have next to nothing. 

Kolton Miller

P.J. Hall

Brandon Parker

Arden Key

Nick Nelson

Maurice Hurst Jr.

Johnny Townsend

Azeem Victor

Marcell Ateman

2017

Gareon Conley

Obi Melifonwu

Eddie Vanderdoes

David Sharpe

Marquel Lee

Shalom Luani

Jylan Ware

Elijah Hood

Treyvon Hester

2016

Karl Joseph

Jihad Ward

Shilique Calhoun

Connor Cook

DeAndre Washington

Cory James

Vadal Alexander

 
That 2017 Raider draft class might be one of the worst in NFL history and 2016 is not much better.   

 
LawFitz said:
Watson is five years younger and five years better than Carr. Forget about stats, I am talking when the pressure is high and the pocket is collapsing. One guy keeps making plays, while the other folds. Years of evidence to back this up at this point.

What is that worth? I don't know, but if somehow a deal could be made with Carr + this yr's 1st rounder for Watson, I think it's a no brainer. Do the deal, then trade Marriota for a 3rd rounder. You end up even in cap terms, yet upgrade to a true elite QB who is only 25 yrs old, while only dropping down two rounds in the draft on net.
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Yea... not so sure the numbers play out that Carr folds under pressure. In fact... 

https://www.nfl.com/news/top-10-qbs-under-pressure-ryan-tannehill-derek-carr-shine

 
LawFitz said:
Watson is five years younger and five years better than Carr. Forget about stats, I am talking when the pressure is high and the pocket is collapsing. One guy keeps making plays, while the other folds. Years of evidence to back this up at this point.

What is that worth? I don't know, but if somehow a deal could be made with Carr + this yr's 1st rounder for Watson, I think it's a no brainer. Do the deal, then trade Marriota for a 3rd rounder. You end up even in cap terms, yet upgrade to a true elite QB who is only 25 yrs old, while only dropping down two rounds in the draft on net.
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I mean I like Carr, a top 10-15 qb is nothing to dismiss. We've been through some really lean years, but Watson's arm talent is so much better than Carr's and his mobility and we can do without the fumbles. They're just as bad as INTs.  I'd give up Carr and 2 1sts for Watson, easy.  

 
Chadstroma said:
Common sense had guys like Ryan Leaf and Johnny Manziel going to the hall of fame while no one batted an eye Brady went in the 6th. 

Countless examples. 

Not impressed with so-called "common sense drafting"
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I don’t know who you were listening to but many of us saw the Manziel disaster coming.  

 
ICON211 said:
Agreed and I would rather have a GM and HC that takes the player they have the highest grade on.  If they continually miss they will be out of a job whether it's "reaches" or the consensus pick.  
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That is not bad logic but watching your team stink year after year while drafts are blown is frustrating.  If Gruden blows the draft again this year, he needs to go.  

 
DocHolliday said:
That is not bad logic but watching your team stink year after year while drafts are blown is frustrating.  If Gruden blows the draft again this year, he needs to go.  
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We all better mentally prepare now for the "head-scratchers" that will be picked this year. Its anyone's guess in 2021.

 
Chadstroma said:
Yea... not so sure the numbers play out that Carr folds under pressure. In fact... 

https://www.nfl.com/news/top-10-qbs-under-pressure-ryan-tannehill-derek-carr-shine
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Show me career numbers, not one year. Actually, don't bother. This isn't a stat that's easily quantifiable or  comparable, as there's going to be a large degree of subjectivity. E.g. in the year you reference above, 2019, Carr had one of the best pass blocking OLine's in football - with a healthy Incognito and (mostly) healthy Baby Brown. IDGAF about what they used to determine pressure. Carr was firing that year b/c his OL was firing. That article references QB rating/stats while under pressure, without any further context - e.g. how many total pressures did Carr take in 2019? Frequency matters. I don't know, but without even trying to look, I predict it was among the lowest in the league that year. And how has he done every other year of his career in this regard? 2019 was maybe the best Raider OL of Carr's career!

I like and appreciate your Raider jib, Chad. Always have. Always will. But TBH, you can be a bit of a heel digger. I mean that as constructive critique. Carr is your boy. He's mine too to a degree. I like the dude a lot as a human being, and very much want him to succeed. But he's Matt Stafford at best, IMO, on the NFL field. That's worth a ton of draft picks, apparently. Awesome. Especially if Pat Mahomes light is available for a ton of picks, plus one more.

Cheers, homie.

 
SDJohnny said:
I mean I like Carr, a top 10-15 qb is nothing to dismiss. We've been through some really lean years, but Watson's arm talent is so much better than Carr's and his mobility and we can do without the fumbles. They're just as bad as INTs.  I'd give up Carr and 2 1sts for Watson, easy.  
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Arm talent in the pocket is the same. Carr has plenty of arm.

Where Watson pulls away is arm talent on the move, off-platform, and more important than that - his general calm/presence in the line of fire. Dude is way WAY better under pressure.

And I hate to say this, but I think, for whatever reason, NFL men don't really buy into Carr as their leader. They do Watson. Please do not point to race. That's not it. It's something to do with personality, though I haven't pinpointed why, other than Carr is kind of a good-two-shoes, suck up dude. We all know/knew that guy growing up and none of us followed him into the real battles. These are mostly 22-28 yr olds on that field every year. Would it really surprise you that they don't buy into the hall monitor as their field general?

 
LawFitz said:
Show me career numbers, not one year. Actually, don't bother. This isn't a stat that's easily quantifiable or  comparable, as there's going to be a large degree of subjectivity. E.g. in the year you reference above, 2019, Carr had one of the best pass blocking OLine's in football - with a healthy Incognito and (mostly) healthy Baby Brown. IDGAF about what they used to determine pressure. Carr was firing that year b/c his OL was firing. That article references QB rating/stats while under pressure, without any further context - e.g. how many total pressures did Carr take in 2019? Frequency matters. I don't know, but without even trying to look, I predict it was among the lowest in the league that year. And how has he done every other year of his career in this regard? 2019 was maybe the best Raider OL of Carr's career!

I like and appreciate your Raider jib, Chad. Always have. Always will. But TBH, you can be a bit of a heel digger. I mean that as constructive critique. Carr is your boy. He's mine too to a degree. I like the dude a lot as a human being, and very much want him to succeed. But he's Matt Stafford at best, IMO, on the NFL field. That's worth a ton of draft picks, apparently. Awesome. Especially if Pat Mahomes light is available for a ton of picks, plus one more.

Cheers, homie.
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Yes, I look at numbers to quantify what I think. It is data. All off season I posted more data about Carr when more than one person was on the Carr sucks bandwagon. The data clearly shows Carr doesn't suck. Is he Mahomes or Rodgers? No, that is extremely hall of fame level stuff. Can he lead a top ten offense? Yes, we saw it just as I said. I will say now that I expect the offense to be even better next year with Carr at the helm. So, yes, when someone says "Carr folds under pressure" and I remember reading an article that used data to say the exact opposite, I am going to poat that. This article clearly has no agenda to push Carr to the third best under pressure (Watson didn't even make the list). Discuss it from there but data is data and opinion is opinion. I will always favor data. 

 
LawFitz said:
Arm talent in the pocket is the same. Carr has plenty of arm.

Where Watson pulls away is arm talent on the move, off-platform, and more important than that - his general calm/presence in the line of fire. Dude is way WAY better under pressure.

And I hate to say this, but I think, for whatever reason, NFL men don't really buy into Carr as their leader. They do Watson. Please do not point to race. That's not it. It's something to do with personality, though I haven't pinpointed why, other than Carr is kind of a good-two-shoes, suck up dude. We all know/knew that guy growing up and none of us followed him into the real battles. These are mostly 22-28 yr olds on that field every year. Would it really surprise you that they don't buy into the hall monitor as their field general?
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Carr is close to Watson on arm strength but I think Watson has the stronger arm but Carr has him on accuracy. Watson uses his legs better to create more and hasn't fumbled as much. Watson is younger too. 

I would take Watson over Carr all things being equal but the difference isn't that big to me to give up a ton to make the switch... at least not to the degree that I think it will take to make it. 

 
I just don't see the logic in trading away Carr this year. I understand both sides of the debate. But the facts are Gruden has rebuilt DC into a top 10 QB, who's running at top 10 offense. Why would Gruden just throw 3 years away, when Carr isn't even this team's issue? Its defense.... Sure he's had his bad games, so has Watson, and every QB for that matter. But Carr has proven he can play well enough to take them to the playoffs only if he had any kind of support on the defensive side of the ball. In fact, he's never had even a decent defense his whole career. His worst year of his career he had 2 rookies at both tackle positions (Miller and Parker) and people want to point out how horrible he was. No kidding?  I dare anyone to try to play QB in the NFL with 2 rookie tackles and see how well they do, if they even can survive the season.  Lay off Carr, he isn't going anywhere. Fix the dang defense, that's the problem. 

 
Bruno2 said:
I just don't see the logic in trading away Carr this year. I understand both sides of the debate. But the facts are Gruden has rebuilt DC into a top 10 QB, who's running at top 10 offense. Why would Gruden just throw 3 years away, when Carr isn't even this team's issue? Its defense.... Sure he's had his bad games, so has Watson, and every QB for that matter. But Carr has proven he can play well enough to take them to the playoffs only if he had any kind of support on the defensive side of the ball. In fact, he's never had even a decent defense his whole career. His worst year of his career he had 2 rookies at both tackle positions (Miller and Parker) and people want to point out how horrible he was. No kidding?  I dare anyone to try to play QB in the NFL with 2 rookie tackles and see how well they do, if they even can survive the season.  Lay off Carr, he isn't going anywhere. Fix the dang defense, that's the problem. 
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Bruno putting in good work to keep me sane. 

 
SDJohnny said:
2.7 million? Jesus what a waste of money. Nobody else wants this guy, they could have paid him the minimum. 
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Gruden is already starting his process of screwing up the offseason. I can’t wait for him to be gone.   Unfortunately, that is a few more years of misery.  

 
Chadstroma said:
Bruno putting in good work to keep me sane. 
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Your as sane as the rest of us.   That may not be saying much though.  

Most of us agree that Carr is a good QB.   The problem is that there is not much talent on the team.  Going with an OK QB, such as Mariotta, while obtaining draft picks for Carr feels necessary due to all the missing pieces.  Of course, then we get into the whole issue of more draft picks just means more misses by Gruden anyway.   

 
Chadstroma said:
Carr is close to Watson on arm strength but I think Watson has the stronger arm but Carr has him on accuracy. Watson uses his legs better to create more and hasn't fumbled as much. Watson is younger too. 

I would take Watson over Carr all things being equal but the difference isn't that big to me to give up a ton to make the switch... at least not to the degree that I think it will take to make it. 
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No idea if this is realistic, but conjecture articles out there seem to point to something along these lines... Carr + Mariota + a 1st round pick for Watson. Might require three teams to balance out the details, but that would be the net trade from the Raiders perspective.

Would you do that deal?

 
SDJohnny said:
2.7 million? Jesus what a waste of money. Nobody else wants this guy, they could have paid him the minimum. 
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Nobody but Gruden, has ever wanted him.  After that debacle in buffalo, he was out of the league.  But mr brilliant, thinks he knows more than everyone else. 

Peterman better name a kid after him. 

 
DocHolliday said:
Your as sane as the rest of us.   That may not be saying much though.  

Most of us agree that Carr is a good QB.   The problem is that there is not much talent on the team.  Going with an OK QB, such as Mariotta, while obtaining draft picks for Carr feels necessary due to all the missing pieces.  Of course, then we get into the whole issue of more draft picks just means more misses by Gruden anyway.   
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Yes, I do realize Raider Nation is not the most mentally stable of fan bases. 🤣

Offense is very good and I believe will get better. Don't f it up. This year, though ended badly, showed even with a bad defense we could beat any team in the league with it (wins over Chefs *nearly twice*, Saints and Browns). 

I don't think there is as much missing pieces on D as I think development of this very young group and a better DC will help tremendously. 

Taking a big whack to the offense to bolster the D just doesn't jive with me. 

Keep the O intact as much as possible (big question on Brown and lesser to Incognito) and bring in more talent for the D. I am q fan of Gruden and Mayock even as some of you throw stones. 

Most of the stone throwing last off season was at Carr. I stood up and threw back. I feel what I said about him was vindicated this year. The stones at Carr are a lot less but I do think there is residual hate for him that drives this trade for picks and roll with Mariota. 

Now, if we could get some decent picks for Mariota... HELL YA. Free up cap and get some more ammo for the draft. Carr for Watson? Ok. Carr for picks? Ya'll need to go sit and think about your lives! 🤣

 
LawFitz said:
No idea if this is realistic, but conjecture articles out there seem to point to something along these lines... Carr + Mariota + a 1st round pick for Watson. Might require three teams to balance out the details, but that would be the net trade from the Raiders perspective.

Would you do that deal?
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Hhhmmnnn.... I would prob stick with Carr and use the pick for D. BUT with the caveat that I haven't done any research on this draft class so I don't know the potential gets for that 1st. If the class is light on D talent then I would be more apt to do it. 

 
Las Vegas Raiders’ 2021 offensive free agents

WR Nelson Agholor, 28 expected to resign around 11 a year)
RB Devontae Booker, 29 would like to keep)
TE Derek Carrier, 31 ok to go
T Denzelle Good, 30 need to keep if we don't keep Incognito but even still proved hige value
WR Zay Jones, 26 ok to go
QB Nathan Peterman, 27 resigned
RB Theo Riddick, 30 ok to go
T Sam Young, 34 ok to go

Las Vegas Raiders’ 2021 defensive and special teams free agents

DE Vic Beasley, 29 like to keep on cheap 
K Daniel Carlson, 26 bounced back from last year need to go to want back
DT Johnathan Hankins, 29 could be retained as good run stopper, wont be end if the world if not though 
S Erik Harris, 31 if on cheap, retain for depth
CB Nevin Lawson, 30 ok to go
S Dallin Leavitt, 27 ok to go
DE Takkarist McKinley, 26 would like to keep
LB Raekwon McMillan, 26 would like to keep
LB Nicholas Morrow, 26 would like to keep
LS Trent Sieg, 26 either way
DE Kendal Vickers, 26 would like to keep 
LB Kyle Wilber, 32 ok to go
CB Daryl Worley, 26 ok to go

 
for the record chad, i agree with you on carr, not being the problem.

the offer would have to be really good, to get him.  i can't believe what the lions got.  it would be tempting if something remotely similar could be achieved.

ty will and mar iota are 22.7M combined.  and if i'm reading that website correctly, would cost nothing if released.  richard is another 3.5M

we need money, to sign some D players.

 
Chadstroma said:
Yea... hoping he performs better with q new DC... but not sure how rushing the QB is really impacted by not knowing the scheme or role. 

I wasn't thrilled by this signing and it really looks like a hard miss.
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Questioned this signing mainly due to the Hard Knocks season where this dude was trying to play investment advisor to his teammates. It was just one glimpse, but it made me think he was the type of guy who would pack it in if he ever got a big money deal.

We need more guys like Mad Maxx who would play for the love of the game, regardless of their bank account. This is part of why I hate free agency. Ted Thompson Packers are the model for me. Never buy the big dollar free agents unless they are walking high-football-character HOFers like Reggie White and Charles Woodson. Instead allocate resources to a top-tier scouting program and the draft, with focus on lots of mid-round picks, using early rounds to trade down and accumulate an overload of swings at rounds 3-5. Sign FAs only from the 2nd wave with value-oriented low-risk deals. Build the team with QB, OL and DL first, then work outward from there. Raiders have never followed this approach in my 30 yrs of following them. :(

 
LawFitz said:
...if somehow a deal could be made with Carr + this yr's 1st rounder for Watson, I think it's a no brainer.
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SDJohnny said:
I'd give up Carr and 2 1sts for Watson, easy.  
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LawFitz said:
Carr + Mariota + a 1st round pick for Watson.
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No. 1 is a no-brainer. No GM with a brain would do it. No. 2 Getting warmer. No. 3 I don't see why the Texans would want Carr AND Mariota.

I heard this deal bandied about and I think if the Raiders really want him, it'll need to be along these lines: Carr, 2 1s and Waller. I'd think long and hard about that. Swallow real hard...and do it. Same article said swap out Waller for Ruggs. I'd do that in a second.

Thot it was funny that Gruden said this: "If they did (trade for Watson), the compensation would be like… they’d have to give up seven No. 1 [draft picks].” Gruden has seven No. 1 picks left in his pocket.

Other notes and quotes:

"Former New York Jets general manager and ESPN analyst Mike Tannenbaum suggested it could take three first-round picks and a star player to appropriately compensate the Texans for the loss of a franchise quarterback."

"Seeing as how the Detroit Lions got two first-round picks, a third-round pick and Goff for Stafford, the Raiders would likely have to start with a similar package for Watson."

"Whatever (the Raiders) decide, they better have a plan. You always need a plan. One that won’t mean anything, by the way, if they don’t fix that defense."

 
Ed Wood said:
No. 1 is a no-brainer. No GM with a brain would do it. No. 2 Getting warmer. No. 3 I don't see why the Texans would want Carr AND Mariota.

I heard this deal bandied about and I think if the Raiders really want him, it'll need to be along these lines: Carr, 2 1s and Waller. I'd think long and hard about that. Swallow real hard...and do it. Same article said swap out Waller for Ruggs. I'd do that in a second.

Thot it was funny that Gruden said this: "If they did (trade for Watson), the compensation would be like… they’d have to give up seven No. 1 [draft picks].” Gruden has seven No. 1 picks left in his pocket.

Other notes and quotes:

"Former New York Jets general manager and ESPN analyst Mike Tannenbaum suggested it could take three first-round picks and a star player to appropriately compensate the Texans for the loss of a franchise quarterback."

"Seeing as how the Detroit Lions got two first-round picks, a third-round pick and Goff for Stafford, the Raiders would likely have to start with a similar package for Watson."

"Whatever (the Raiders) decide, they better have a plan. You always need a plan. One that won’t mean anything, by the way, if they don’t fix that defense."
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You crazy 

 
LawFitz said:
Questioned this signing mainly due to the Hard Knocks season where this dude was trying to play investment advisor to his teammates. It was just one glimpse, but it made me think he was the type of guy who would pack it in if he ever got a big money deal.

We need more guys like Mad Maxx who would play for the love of the game, regardless of their bank account. This is part of why I hate free agency. Ted Thompson Packers are the model for me. Never buy the big dollar free agents unless they are walking high-football-character HOFers like Reggie White and Charles Woodson. Instead allocate resources to a top-tier scouting program and the draft, with focus on lots of mid-round picks, using early rounds to trade down and accumulate an overload of swings at rounds 3-5. Sign FAs only from the 2nd wave with value-oriented low-risk deals. Build the team with QB, OL and DL first, then work outward from there. Raiders have never followed this approach in my 30 yrs of following them. :(
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To be fair... some of our biggest players in Raider history were free agents, in fact, we were famous for taking players that didn't fit with other teams for whatever reason and then flourished with us. It was actually kind of our trade mark. 

 
DA RAIDERS said:
for the record chad, i agree with you on carr, not being the problem.

the offer would have to be really good, to get him.  i can't believe what the lions got.  it would be tempting if something remotely similar could be achieved.

ty will and mar iota are 22.7M combined.  and if i'm reading that website correctly, would cost nothing if released.  richard is another 3.5M

we need money, to sign some D players.
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I have no idea what the Lions are doing. Goff must have really pissed them off. Stafford isn't all that much better than Goff. 

The difference between us and the Lions is we have an offense in place that can win and a young team all around in a complicated offense. Our D is the glaring issue. The Lions need a rebuild. We need to tune our D up. 

 
Chadstroma said:
You crazy 
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Hee hee, we'll see. The Stafford deal is a decent comp. Carr>Goff. Watson>Stafford. If they could get Watson for Carr, 2 1s and a 3rd similar to Stafford deal, I think Gruden would be all over it. I think it'll take more than that.

I just hope Watson goes somewhere so we'll see who's right and who's wrong. FWIW I hear the Broncos could very much be in play. That increases the Raiders' urgency obviously. Can you imagine being stuck in a division with Mahomes, Herbert and Watson? Hee hee.

 
It sounds like Wentz is going to be traded and a similar bounty as Stafford. Crazy. 

If Wentz and Stafford are two 1's and a 3. Carr is worth more. And then what the heck is Watson worth?

Teams said to be in the mix: Colts, Bears, Panthers and Broncos. PLEASE have the Broncos do this. His cap hot would be significant, they would cripple themselves foe the future losing the picks and not get that much better at QB. 

The two worst completion percentages past the line of scrimmage last year? Wentz and Trubisky. 

 
DA RAIDERS said:
I see stafford and Carr as equal, if not a nod towards stafford

:shrug:

wentz is broken. 
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I see you broken on QB evaluation... 😉except for Wentz. He is broken. Whoever buys him for that price tag is DUMB and Philly is going to be sitting pretty after they get past the crazy cap hit.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
agreed on all.  so happy for flores.

stafford is freaking good.  carr is pretty damn good.  i just give the nod to stafford.  

 
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