Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
2021 Las Vegas Raiders - PLAYOFFS!!!! (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Hankmoody
- Start date
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
In sum, the Raiders have released 4 of the 5 oline starters from the opening day last year. Wow. This was considered their strongest unit. Time to sell all my Raider holdings. No clue what Gruden is doing, and I suspect he has no clue either.
LawFitz
Footballguy
I don't disagree with this. But the Raiders have clearly been looking to shed cap, for whatever plans they have this free agent window. Perhaps they already had Hudson marked as a potential cut (to free up ~$6 MM in cap this year); and when he approached them with the release request - thus voiding $3.5 MM of his dead cap and increasing the net gain this year to ~$7.5 MM, maybe they jumped on it. I dunno. I am pissed and trying to rationalize...
Supposedly, they are really high on the backup center, Andre James, so maybe that's been playing a role in all of this too. He's one of several backup OL players that played really well during the last two seasons when pressed into service. He's also operating on a rookie FA contract.
Real talk from last year - three of the four OL who are now gone (assuming Gabe Jax is too) didn't perform to the level of their contracts and/or dealt with a lot of injuries the last two seasons. Meanwhile, their backups have continually performed well, sans Brandon Parker, who has been mostly a bum. And they've now shed all the expensive contracts associated with that aging, injury-rattled OL, and look to redeploy to other places, including hopefully, their woeful defense, starting with Ngakoue.
Beyond that, this suddenly makes them more serious contenders for Trent Williams (and to retain Denzelle Good, who has been fantastic the last two years). Hudson is awesome - an absolute stud. But if by cutting him, they end up landing Williams and Good (and more defenders), then I'd feel much better - especially if a. Hudson was potentially a malcontent going forward, and b. Williams performs as he has the last 7 years - i.e. elite stud OT. Loved Hudson - hope he excels at his next stop, except against Las Vegas; but player for player, I'd argue Williams is more valuable - especially if he comes in fresh and without whatever baggage Hudson has collected.
Lots of IFs above. Let's see who they actually sign with all this newly freed cap. Williams would be target #1 for me, by far.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Geez, the Bears really just want '85 to be the focus of the entire franchise forever, don't they? Dalton. They made that big move for Mack to add to what was an already good D and then have squandered it. Now, Dalton is better then Foles or Trubisky but how much better? Not much.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
I am wondering if they approached him about restructure or taking less and got pissed about that.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Yes, the Oline is in question now.
No, it is too early to freak out about what FA will shape up when all is said and done.
No, it is too early to freak out about what FA will shape up when all is said and done.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Brady was a young 42 when the Pats let him go. C’mon. This is a silly comp. not remotely close to letting your starting center go with nothing to show but a cap hit.
LawFitz
Footballguy
It's not a cap hit. They freed up ~$7.5 MM this season with the cut. If that money goes to Trent Williams, it changes everything.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
LawFitz
Footballguy
For sure. Like I said, lot's of ifs. Biggest one for me is whether or not they get Trent Williams. The Raiders were hyper-aggressive in freeing up cap space this offseason - presumably for some TBD agenda. Williams is the only mega-contract player remaining, and he's suddenly a major need. Let's see what happens.
I'm really trying to be positive about the whole Oline shakeup. But I just can't help it. There's something deeper going on here than just reworking salary cap numbers.
There is a losing culture here, and it sucks to watch it, I can only imagine what it's like to be a player like Hudson and be part of it. He's had enough, I can't say I don't blame him. If he played a more high-profile position like QB or edge rusher, this would be headline news on the level of Watson and Wilson.
There is a losing culture here, and it sucks to watch it, I can only imagine what it's like to be a player like Hudson and be part of it. He's had enough, I can't say I don't blame him. If he played a more high-profile position like QB or edge rusher, this would be headline news on the level of Watson and Wilson.
LawFitz
Footballguy
I hear you and have suddenly become the only voice of (even minimal) optimism today. Let's judge after free agency more fully transpires. The latest narrative being peddled is that the Raiders cut Hudson to save cashflow. Not buying. Bowl Cut isn't starving for freaking $10 MM in cashflow - how do we know? He voluntarily played the entire season last year without selling a single ticket, when he easily could've pivoted at any time to selling at least 20% of the stadium. And he then bought another sports franchise (albeit WNBA - but still valued in the tens of millions, at least).
Is there a plan here? Maybe not. Time and space will reveal to a degree, if there is. But I've laid out a more sensical narrative, based on the cap numbers - Raiders starting OL was aging, and injury ravaged (except for Miller), making them grossly overallocated for the 2021 cap. They blew it up, but intend to use the freed up capital, promising backups, value and potentially big $$$ free agents, and the draft to reload. Call it Tom Cable or awesome scouting, but save for Brandon Parker, the Raiders OL depth last season was phenomenal - arguably best in the league. Maybe the plan is to lean on that strength, and diversify the cap concentration elsewhere. I dunno, but that makes a lot more sense than, oh, the Raiders are complete idiots and Bowl Cut is a poor pimp.
Downside is that for as good as they were at stocking OL talent, they've been equally horrendous stocking defensive talent. So even if they allocate cap there, how can we have any confidence they'll bring in productive players. Maybe the new DC changes that. More IFs, but let's all slow down just a bit and let this week and next play out before going into complete panic.
LawFitz
Footballguy
Trent rejected $20 MM per from the Niners. He's 32 and knows this is his last big payday; he's testing the market. Right now, only the Niners, Bears, Colts and Chiefs are reported in the running. Doesn't mean there aren't sleeper teams lurking, including the Raiders. Seen it plenty of times before that a team comes out of the bushes to swoop on a highly sought-after free agent.
Niners are swimming against the current, with a player who wants (inflated) market value. State income tax rates:
CA - 13%, IL - 5%, MO - 5.4%, NV - 0%
On $80 MM, that's $10.4 MM, $4 MM, $4.3 MM and $0 MM, respectively, that needs to be made up to keep the offers economically equal.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
The problem with this is that Gruden presumably has his white board with some masters plan on it, and he’s betting on the come.
Trent Williams is also a huge priority for the 49ers. They’re pursuing him aggressively. I’d give it 70% chance the 49ers resign him. The more time goes by the better the chance he leaves.
But this is also the kinda thing Gruden did in Tampa Bay after winning the SB. And he wasn’t very good at it, as evidenced by the results.
I agree if they get Trent Williams they'll be better off. But what’s plan B if they don’t?
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Brady went and won another SB and the Pats sucked plus they ate a ton of cap money last year. Silly comp? hhmmnn....
Chadstroma
Footballguy
I appreciate what you're saying, and on a pragmatic level I agree with you. But there is a disconnect between what Bowl Cut and Gruden are doing and to what's happening in reality. This is not the Raiders organization of old, any "commitment to excellence " is long gone. "Pride and poise" is a distant memory. The Miami game last season was the perfect microcosm of the Raiders the past 3 years under Gruden. Carr and the offense claw and scratch and bring the team back to give them the win and what happens? The defense makes two completely stupid mistakes on one play and give the game away. Arden Key made one of the dumbest blunders I've ever seen, but theres no talk of cutting or trading him. Instead, hey let's trade Carr, everything is his fault. Getting rid of Carr would never change the fact that Gruden completely ignored the defense and put it in the hands of Guenther, a defensive coordinator who never had full control of his defenses before, working under Marvin Lewis, a defensive minded HC.
So here we are, 3 years later after another rebuild, the team is no better off than it was under Del Rio and Reggie. Players want to leave for greener pastures. Free agents from winning organizations can't stand it here, and want to leave as soon as they walk into the building. Even Agohlor, who was laughed out of Philly called this team a bunch of "losers" after giving away the Miami game, and hes right!
Like Hudson, I'm tired of it too. When will someone in this Godforsaken organization make a genius decision? Even one sensible decision or right move would be great... Why do they have to reach on every dang draft pick? I was hoping for all that to end when Al Davis passed, but no, us fans are still condemned to sit by and watch a once great franchise flounder in a sea of selfish egos and know-it-alls. We can spin this Oline fiasco anyway we want, bottom line, Gruden and this organization can't get out of it's own way. And don't be fooled, this is another tear down and rebuild. I've been through enough of them by now to know what they look like.
LawFitz
Footballguy
This is where you and I can absolutely agree. The only sensical scenario here, to me at least, is that this is a risky all-in play for Williams, as the foundation piece for the latest rebuild - which I think he could/would be.
If it were me, plan B would start first with extending Miller - and perhaps Carr and Hurst - ASAP, to spread out their coming cap hits across a longer stretch, and eat up some of the cap that was allocated for Williams. Then I dunno. The rest of the free agent class is filled with warts, at least when it comes to the elite(ish) names available. Probably sign 2-3 of the 2nd tier names to top-market deals on a per annum basis, but with cap-friendly team outs after year 1 or 2, at most. Effectively create rental players, that you can churn until they either prove worthy of more or you have draft hits to pay or another Williams-type comes available in free agency next year or beyond.
LawFitz
Footballguy
I think Morrow is an ascending talent, with a lot of remaining upside. Curious to see how much it cost to keep him around and for how long.
SDJohnny
Footballguy
Chadstroma
Footballguy
McKinley signing with the Browns on a 1 year $4 million contract
LawFitz
Footballguy
Raiders Cap Update -
Current Space: $26.6 MM
Additional Flexibility -
- Convert Hudson to June 1 cut: + $6 MM
- Cut/trade Mariota: + $11 MM
- Cut/trade Parker & Key: + $4 MM
- Cut/trade Rashard: + $3.5 MM
- Cut Jeff Heath: + $3 MM
Total Additional Flexibility = + $27.5 MM
___________________________________
Parker and Key and dead to me; and I have zero issues with spreading Hudson's dead cap into next season. That's another $10 MM right there, plus $11 MM from Mariota should they need it, without even dipping into Rashard/Heath.
Current Space: $26.6 MM
Additional Flexibility -
- Convert Hudson to June 1 cut: + $6 MM
- Cut/trade Mariota: + $11 MM
- Cut/trade Parker & Key: + $4 MM
- Cut/trade Rashard: + $3.5 MM
- Cut Jeff Heath: + $3 MM
Total Additional Flexibility = + $27.5 MM
___________________________________
Parker and Key and dead to me; and I have zero issues with spreading Hudson's dead cap into next season. That's another $10 MM right there, plus $11 MM from Mariota should they need it, without even dipping into Rashard/Heath.
LawFitz
Footballguy
^^^
Let's project $54 MM in cap 'flexibility' right now, based on the above, and cutting/trading all those players...
- less $6 MM to sign rookie class
- less $22 MM for Trent Williams bong hit (or more for 2021, if you want to front load to deal seal, and assist future cap)
________________________________
Still leaves $26 MM...
Who else -
- $4 MM (Morrow - hoping this is absolute high end)
- $4 MM (Incognito or Long)
- $4 MM (Good or Long)
Who else?
- Smith-Schuster - I like him, but not for more than ~$9-12mm per - would make for a nice compliment across Ruggs/Renfrow. Cannot count on Mr. Glass Edwards, as much as I'd like to. I'd be willing to commit dead-cap risk to JuJu beyond two years. I don't think he will bust as long as he's viewed/paid as a #2 WR.
- Peterson (PED user) and Reddick (contract-yr wonder) are the only other two I see on the remaining FA list worth considering for more than basement money; and in both cases, it'd need to be with an out after a year or two IMO, as bust potential is fairly decent with both. They would likely require JJSS money, so it'd be only one of these three.
Let's project $54 MM in cap 'flexibility' right now, based on the above, and cutting/trading all those players...
- less $6 MM to sign rookie class
- less $22 MM for Trent Williams bong hit (or more for 2021, if you want to front load to deal seal, and assist future cap)
________________________________
Still leaves $26 MM...
Who else -
- $4 MM (Morrow - hoping this is absolute high end)
- $4 MM (Incognito or Long)
- $4 MM (Good or Long)
Who else?
- Smith-Schuster - I like him, but not for more than ~$9-12mm per - would make for a nice compliment across Ruggs/Renfrow. Cannot count on Mr. Glass Edwards, as much as I'd like to. I'd be willing to commit dead-cap risk to JuJu beyond two years. I don't think he will bust as long as he's viewed/paid as a #2 WR.
- Peterson (PED user) and Reddick (contract-yr wonder) are the only other two I see on the remaining FA list worth considering for more than basement money; and in both cases, it'd need to be with an out after a year or two IMO, as bust potential is fairly decent with both. They would likely require JJSS money, so it'd be only one of these three.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yes, because they let a 42 year old QB walk, with a declining offense on a team that wouldn’t have won Jack with him. Instead they got reclamation project Cam Newton on the cheap & didn’t win the same Jack, but for cheaper.
Brady walked to a team that was essentially a QB away from being incredible. Plug and play. They won a super bowl because they were a compete team. Your implication seems to be that if Brady stays in NE he wins a super bowl? I’m skeptical, but you’re entitled to that opinion I guess.
It’s a pretty terrible comparison.
Last edited by a moderator:
massraider
Footballguy
The best signings from free agency are going to be bargains who got squeezed by the cap. We might get a top WR, but I doubt it.
There are going to be teams who did really well, getting B+ performance from C+ talent.
This team has been signing B+ talent, and getting D- performance for, let's see, all of our adult lives? So signing a bunch of 2 mill/year guys is gonna work, I just don't think it's gonna work here.
It needs to come from players we have. Mo Hurst, Mullen, Arnette, Abram, Ferrell, Ruggs, Edwards, (insert name of unknown OL on our roster).
Free agency isn't going to fix this team, or even improve it much. Improvement needs to come from within. We have youth everywhere, highly drafted young guys everywhere.
There are going to be teams who did really well, getting B+ performance from C+ talent.
This team has been signing B+ talent, and getting D- performance for, let's see, all of our adult lives? So signing a bunch of 2 mill/year guys is gonna work, I just don't think it's gonna work here.
It needs to come from players we have. Mo Hurst, Mullen, Arnette, Abram, Ferrell, Ruggs, Edwards, (insert name of unknown OL on our roster).
Free agency isn't going to fix this team, or even improve it much. Improvement needs to come from within. We have youth everywhere, highly drafted young guys everywhere.
massraider
Footballguy
Carr is the last holdover from Reggie era, which is nice to remember as former Raiders who were cut have been signing deals last two days.
Sarlakticacid
Footballguy
kaso
Footballguy
Way behind here after a night in the ER (nothing serious thankfully). But here are my random thoughts:
- Personally hate losing Hudson. I hope this is a result of; Hudson not willing to take a pay cut, frustrated with the lack of winning seasons (as noted in The Athletic article), and a personal decision he is making to chase an opportunity for a ring before his career ends, it making cap sense for the team after being able to save the additional $3M from the guaranteed. Regardless he fits the bill for me of the old motto of "Once a Raider, always a Raider". Hudson was always one of my favorites.
- Happy to hear of that Morrow was resigned. I like keeping the LB core together, and allowing Gus the opportunity to make them better. I'd rather see the Raiders retain talent.
- Intrigued on the Josh Brown signing. 1 year deal means little long term risk. He had spurts of productivity in Buffalo. I hope this proves to be the next Nelson Agholor deal, where the Raiders can find a means to maximize his talent in this offence.
- I too don't buy the cash poor angle of Davis. I think it is a convenient and easy story line to write for some in the media to chase 'internet clicks/clout'.
- Raiders put a 2nd round tender on Carlson. I like that move too. Someone wants him, come pay for him. I'll be just as happy to see him back next season.
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
Are we sure that Al is dead?
John brown? Edwards better step up. The wr Corp is tiny buncha short dudes
Or Waller. Needs to have 150 catches.
Im losing faith, to the point that I’m starting to not care anymore. Which is really sad.
#firegruden
John brown? Edwards better step up. The wr Corp is tiny buncha short dudes
Or Waller. Needs to have 150 catches.
Im losing faith, to the point that I’m starting to not care anymore. Which is really sad.
#firegruden
After a night of sleep I've come to terms with "Rebuild Part 2" of the Gruden era. I'm still bummed, Hudson was my favorite Raider (I played center in high school) so I know the significance of the position and how important he was to the team. That being said, I knew the OL was aging and expensive and something had to be done to get younger. I just didn't expect to send the Anchor packing along with everyone else. You can throw two inexperienced guards next to Hudson and I had faith that he'd make sure those guys knew who to block. Now that trust is gone. The bright side is I have faith in Cable to coach the next guys up. He's done a good job of that so far, as the OL has been the strongest position unit on the team. We need to keep that going.
Being the draft geek I am, here's some names of some interior Olinemen the Raiders will most likely target at #17.
Alijah Vera-Tucker- USC- One of the more athletic OGs in the draft. Added bonus, could probably play RT as well. I've seen him mocked to the Raiders so that probably guarantees the Raiders won't draft him.
Trey Smith-Tenn- Huge road grader, that performed well at the Senior Bowl. If they go OL in the 1st, he could be the pick.
Wyatt Davis-Ohio St- I've heard his name linked to the Raiders here and there, can also play Center, could fit the bill in the 2nd round if he lasts that long. Voted All-Decade at OSU, that says something.
Landon Dickerson-Bama- If there looking for pure Center, he fits the bill. Mayock likes Alabama prospects and he's a big dude, especially for a Center. 6'6" 315 lbs.
Being the draft geek I am, here's some names of some interior Olinemen the Raiders will most likely target at #17.
Alijah Vera-Tucker- USC- One of the more athletic OGs in the draft. Added bonus, could probably play RT as well. I've seen him mocked to the Raiders so that probably guarantees the Raiders won't draft him.
Trey Smith-Tenn- Huge road grader, that performed well at the Senior Bowl. If they go OL in the 1st, he could be the pick.
Wyatt Davis-Ohio St- I've heard his name linked to the Raiders here and there, can also play Center, could fit the bill in the 2nd round if he lasts that long. Voted All-Decade at OSU, that says something.
Landon Dickerson-Bama- If there looking for pure Center, he fits the bill. Mayock likes Alabama prospects and he's a big dude, especially for a Center. 6'6" 315 lbs.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
The team is in desperate need of a WR 1 so they sign another fast WR that doesn’t produce consistently. Brown is a WR 3. We may look back at the 2020 season fondly for the next few years since it is probably going to be the best season we see in awhile.
LawFitz
Footballguy
Deep threat seems to be a key cog in this offense. They looked so much better last year when Ruggs was at full speed, even if he wasn't the one making the plays. Agholor filled that role when Ruggs was out - and I'm sure Brown is being brought in for the same reason - Ruggs insurance, in case injuries are an issue again.
For this role, I'm not seeing a huge difference in Agholor vs. Brown, other than $9 MM per in cap.
For this role, I'm not seeing a huge difference in Agholor vs. Brown, other than $9 MM per in cap.
SDJohnny
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I like the idea of getting some veteran leadership in the secondary. Sherman obviously, I'm interested in Neal as well. Can't recall if he's the ballhawking type of free safety or the box type like we already have in Abram. If he's a FS I'm interested.
Why is there no talk of Malik Hooker? Has he not recovered from his injuries? I'd think a young, former 1st round pick coming back from injury on a prove it deal would fit the Raiders budget.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
It took longer than I’d expected, but I expected that deal to get done.
I thought it would take 25M to lock him up, tbh which is why I thought the Raiders might have lured him away with low state taxes.
I am now very concerned with Carr staying vertical. I hope he calls his brother for advice on playing behind what might be a rough OL.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Some excellent names on this list.
Reports are that WAS WFT are the frontrunners for Samuel. With Fitzmagic & McClaren he’d be a rock solid #2 for them so that makes sense.
Golladay is likely a Dolphin or a Giant.
Peterson, Sherman, Suh, Butler & Reddick could all be good fits with the Raiders.
LawFitz
Footballguy
Raiders have huge holes at RT and Swing T now. TBD how they fill them, but by far the worst players on their OL the last year - Sam Young and Brandon Parker - are the only OTs they have left behind LT Miller. Carr isn't good at anticipating or evading pressure. This is potentially a season derailer if not addressed well.
One solution is Denzel Good - who played well at OG and RT last year, but is an unnerved FA right now, after being low-balled by the Raiders and then watching all his homie OL disrespected by the org this offseason. Another is formerly broken down Kyle Long, who supposedly is healthy now and ready to make a comeback at 32. Or one of the potentially serviceable RTs left in the free agent pool.
Not a fan of any of the above solutions, so I'm thinking best option is going to come from the draft. That stinks though, because the best drafts come from taking BPA, not being desperately needy at particular positions. :(
Similar threads
