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*** Chargers Official 2021 Thread - The Little Team That Couldn't *** (1 Viewer)

Just Win Baby said:
I'm happy to agree to disagree on this.

First off, I never said I think Golladay is worth it. Just because one team is willing to commit to a bad WR contract doesn't mean another team should be willing to do the same. 

Also, Golladay has been better than Williams in their careers to date:

  • More targets, receptions, yards, TDs, and first downs, despite playing in 9 fewer games with 7 fewer starts.
  • Higher catch percentage, YPR, and YPT, though they are close, and has averaged 45% more receiving yards per game.
  • Higher PFF grades overall, receiving, and run blocking in every season
Completely disagree. I understand and agree those are sunk costs. Never said otherwise. Pointing out that they overdrafted him is not "caught up in the past," it is an explanation for why his 5th year salary is inflated to a level that isn't worth it.

Possible alternatives that were available until his 2021 contract became guaranteed:

  1. Trade for a comparable vet at a lower price
  2. Release Williams and sign a comparable vet at a lower price
  3. Release Williams and draft a promising rookie
  4. Sign Williams to a multi-year extension.
Keep in mind - again - this tangent started when you replied to my comment that IMO the combination of Henry + a Williams replacement would have been cheaper and likely better than Cook + Williams. Henry is better than Cook, so the Williams replacement doesn't have to be better than Williams to make that a net positive exchange.

I think I have made it pretty clear, that I would prefer they had chosen one of the four options above instead of the path they chose.

Look, it's pretty clear that you and I will not agree on this. I'm fine moving on.
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I know you didn't say it, because it hurts your narrative that Williams wouldn't have gotten close to $15.4 mil on the open market. That's kind of the point- it's fine if you don't think Golladay is worth the contract he got but an NFL team did and obviously they set the market, not you or I. Their numbers are really close, you're fooling yourself if you think Williams wouldn't get anything close to what he did- they're pretty similar players.

They had the 7th pick and Williams was one of if not the top WR prospect in the draft. Davis went ahead of him and Ross right behind, it's not like it was a huge reach. I'm guessing you'll say they should have traded down first, but that's easier said than done and comes with a plenty of risk as well (they could have ended up with Ross instead). It's not like the $4.5 mil difference in the 5th year option (if he was drafted later) is going to make or break their season anyway.

As for your alternatives, you once again don't give any specifics- not a single name or their cost in terms of contracts or draft picks. It's very easy to throw out a generic "they screwed up", it's much more difficult to actually come up with better realistic, specific alternatives. Seems strange to me that you would have preferred they signed Williams to a multi-year extension since you don't seem to like him much, although that's probably because you're underestimating what that contract would likely look like. Also, keeping Williams for 1 year doesn't preclude them from drafting a promising rookie, I've seen a couple of mocks with them doing so. And again, you're only looking at 2021 cap hit when making the TE/WR comparison. The fact that Henry balloons to $15 mil plus for 2022 and 2023 makes a pretty big difference in the equation (yes, NFL teams look beyond one year so that's a factor).

Of course things could always be better, but it isn't realistic to expect everything to be perfect. I think it's been a very good off season so far, to me it seems silly to nitpick over Williams and his salary when it really isn't going to negatively impact them this year. Calling it GM malpractice is way over the top IMO. In any event, happy to agree to disagree and move on.

 
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I don't really think Williams would have come close to what Golladay got either,  but i also don't have a big problem with what they are paying him either.  Is it an overpay? Probably. But not by a wide margin. Corey Davis is getting about 13.5 for the next 2 years, and I definitely prefer Williams over that. I still think Williams adds more to the offense than just his numbers. 

 
I don't recall too many of us Charger fans in here being thrilled with the Williams pick when it happened. I know I wasn't. For the most part I feel the same. He's been o.k. He's not worth $15.7M - the notion that other teams are overpaying for mediocre receivers so it's a good idea for the Chargers to do the same isn't a persuasive argument. We don't have to come up with every possible permutation of how else the Chargers could be spending that money to feel comfortable with this position either.

 
Gr00vus said:
In other news, the Chargers sign Chase Daniels QB, terms unknown right now. Woo hoo?
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Seems like a solid move if they didn't overpay. Will be interested to see the terms.

Having done this, IMO there is no reason to keep Stick on the active roster this season. IMO they should move him to the practice squad and take advantage of the recent rule change to activate him on gamedays when there is any particular concern about Herbert and/or Daniel.

Herbert is the long term QB, so Stick isn't that. And he won't play barring major injuries, so he won't be able to emerge as a tradable asset. There is no reason to believe another team would sign him off their PS. He can effectively be the 54th roster spot.

 
Gr00vus said:
I don't recall too many of us Charger fans in here being thrilled with the Williams pick when it happened. I know I wasn't. For the most part I feel the same. He's been o.k. He's not worth $15.7M - the notion that other teams are overpaying for mediocre receivers so it's a good idea for the Chargers to do the same isn't a persuasive argument. We don't have to come up with every possible permutation of how else the Chargers could be spending that money to feel comfortable with this position either.
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You guys aren't thrilled with anything they do, including signing the best center in the league, so that certainly isn't a surprise. The point is, two other NFL teams also picked WR's in the top 10 that year, so them picking Williams at #7 wasn't out of line with how the NFL valued those WRs.

Likewise, the argument wasn't that they should overpay for a mediocre WR, it was what would he have gotten on the open market? In a world where Golladay gets $18M, Davis gets $13.5M, Samuel get almost $12M, and Agholor gets $11M, all for at least the next 2 years, it isn't a stretch to think Williams would have averaged at least somewhere close to $15.7M. Is he overpaid for this year? Sure. Is it a huge deal, considering it's only a couple of million dollars for 1 year where they still have plenty of cap space? Not in my opinion. Calling it GM malpractice is pure hysterics IMO.

No one asked anyone to come up with every possible permutation, but combined you've offered up exactly zero specifics. Again, it's very easy to complain and say they screwed up, it's kind of the MO in here, but it's much more difficult to come up with better (realistic) solutions. That said, I'll bow out for now and leave you guys to commiserate together.

 
humpback said:
You guys aren't thrilled with anything they do, including signing the best center in the league, so that certainly isn't a surprise.
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This is a false narrative. Personally, I am very happy the team signed Linsley, Feiler, and Aboushi. I have posted exactly that. I have also posted that I am cautiously optimistic about the new coaching staff. And posted that I liked most of their decisions this offseason.

Frankly, if you have not been closely following the Chargers for a long time, you really aren't qualified to criticize Chargers fans for how they feel about the franchise decision-making.

humpback said:
That said, I'll bow out for now and leave you guys to commiserate together.
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:thumbup:  

 
humpback said:
You guys aren't thrilled with anything they do, including signing the best center in the league, so that certainly isn't a surprise. The point is, two other NFL teams also picked WR's in the top 10 that year, so them picking Williams at #7 wasn't out of line with how the NFL valued those WRs.

Likewise, the argument wasn't that they should overpay for a mediocre WR, it was what would he have gotten on the open market? In a world where Golladay gets $18M, Davis gets $13.5M, Samuel get almost $12M, and Agholor gets $11M, all for at least the next 2 years, it isn't a stretch to think Williams would have averaged at least somewhere close to $15.7M. Is he overpaid for this year? Sure. Is it a huge deal, considering it's only a couple of million dollars for 1 year where they still have plenty of cap space? Not in my opinion. Calling it GM malpractice is pure hysterics IMO.

No one asked anyone to come up with every possible permutation, but combined you've offered up exactly zero specifics. Again, it's very easy to complain and say they screwed up, it's kind of the MO in here, but it's much more difficult to come up with better (realistic) solutions. That said, I'll bow out for now and leave you guys to commiserate together.
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Getting Linsley is a good start. I'm not sure about Fieler and Aboushi. Aboushi seems like a journeyman to me, not sure he's much of an upgrade over what they had last year. Feiler may be, but his body of work so far doesn't blow me away.

Anyway, I was just talking about Williams. If you're a good GM you don't overpay for mediocrity just because some other teams are doing so in the open market - which is what that whole list looks like to me. I'd have liked to have seen the Chargers spend Williams's money on the lines (I'm still not sold on  Joseph for instance, and they're moving to a 3-4), at edge rusher, maybe at CB, maybe inside LB, maybe saftey. Maybe bring Henry back instead (though I think the Pats overpaid for him too). Apart from Linsley, they've pretty much bargain shopped (or not done much at all) in those areas. Oh and they gave Jared Cook 4.5M for a year, probably hoping Parham takes the bulk of the TE snaps and routes - puzzling but not catastrophic. On a team that has some significant needs, having the 3rd highest contract on the team belong to Mike Williams, even for 1 season, is a #### up in my book. The only saving grace is that it's just 1 year, so it's not a major #### up, just a minor #### up, though it's hard to gauge the opportunity cost of not sending those dollars somewhere else this year.

 
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Kalen Ballage signed with the Steelers. I figure the Chargers will need to bring in another RB somehow as Jackson and Kelly don't seem like a sufficient backup plan behind Ekeler.

The Chargers signed Ryan Smith, ST/CB - 1 year 1.75M. Hope he can help spiff up the ST units.

 
Mike Williams and Kenny Golladay are very similar receivers in almost every respect. The main difference is that Galloday has started 7 more games over the last four years because Williams has been a bit more injury-prone. They have similar size, speed, and big-play ability.

 
Maurile Tremblay said:
Mike Williams and Kenny Golladay are very similar receivers in almost every respect. The main difference is that Galloday has started 7 more games over the last four years because Williams has been a bit more injury-prone. They have similar size, speed, and big-play ability.
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Golladay has started 39 games, played in 47 games, and played 2538 offensive snaps.

Mike Williams has started 32 games, played in 56 games, and played 2495 offensive snaps.

That's a virtual wash on snaps. As I posted previously, Golladay has been better, especially considering that he played with slightly inferior QB play (8 games of Blough and Driskell in 2019, plus IMO Stafford 2017-2020 was at least slightly worse than Rivers 2017-2019 + Herbert 2020).

I agree, not a huge difference. But I'd rather have Golladay.

 
Maurile Tremblay said:
Mike Williams and Kenny Golladay are very similar receivers in almost every respect. The main difference is that Galloday has started 7 more games over the last four years because Williams has been a bit more injury-prone. They have similar size, speed, and big-play ability.
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Yep. The "Rivers is better than Stafford" argument was predictable (I disagree), but the two WRs are incredibly close in almost every way, so it seems very likely that their contracts would have at least been close in annual salary.

Really the main difference is that Detroit didn't have a stud target hog like Allen, plus Rivers loved dumping it off to his RBs, so there were fewer targets for Williams.

 
humpback said:
Yep. The "Rivers is better than Stafford" argument was predictable (I disagree), but the two WRs are incredibly close in almost every way, so it seems very likely that their contracts would have at least been close in annual salary.

Really the main difference is that Detroit didn't have a stud target hog like Allen, plus Rivers loved dumping it off to his RBs, so there were fewer targets for Williams.
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Golladay had Driskell and Blough for 17% of his games to date. Williams had 1 of 56 career games without Rivers/Herbert, and that was with Tyrod, who was better than Driskell/Blough. There is no question that Williams had better QB play. He also had Allen to draw coverage, while Golladay had Marvin Jones, who is not even a poor man's Allen.

Throughout Rivers' career, he threw to the open target. Williams didn't get more targets because he didn't get open enough. It's as simple as that. It is not really controversial, since he is known as a receiver who doesn't get great separation and is not known as a great route runner.

 
Reading more about this lawsuit on PFT dangerous.  It's giving me hope that we could see a transfer of control.  Looks like Dea is trying to force a sale on the 36 percent from the estate so that she can then sell her own 15 percent that would bring it up to 51 percent and control of the team. 

Yeah,  probably too good to be true. 

 
massraider said:
Was there anything in the article about how they acquired 350 mill in debt?
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They had to pay a $650M transfer fee. Pretty sure they financed a lot of that. Not sure how that correlates to the debt in the article.

I posted this info a few months ago: Value of Chargers Move to LA

The clear implication of the Spanos decision to move the Chargers to LA is that the Spanos family thought doing so under the terms they agreed to would increase the value of the franchise more than any alternative path. That is simply not true.

There are easy ways to show this.

1. In September 2016, the Chargers' last season in San Diego, Forbes assessed that the Chargers franchise was worth $2.08B, which was #21 among NFL franchises. In September 2020, Forbes assessed that the Chargers franchise was worth $2.6B, which was... #21 among NFL franchises. So relative standing is unchanged.

2. The average value of NFL franchises in that 2016 assessment was $2.34B. The average value of NFL franchises in that 2020 assessment was $3.05B. That is an average increase of 30.1%. The Chargers franchise increase was 25%. So the Chargers value grew at a below average rate.

3. The Raiders are the other team that moved at the same time as the Chargers, and they were similar to the Chargers in terms of being constrained financially relative to most other NFL franchises. In September 2016, the Raiders franchise value was assessed at $2.1B, ranking #20, one spot ahead of the Chargers. As of September 2020, Forbes assessed the Raiders franchise value at $3.1B, ranking #12 among all NFL franchises. Clearly, there was at least one better alternative available; the Raiders took it.

I would argue that there was also another better alternative. Had the Chargers been willing to spend the $650M they took on for their relocation fee on a San Diego area stadium, plus the $300M the NFL would have provided, and been more flexible about the stadium location (e.g., Mission Valley), they likely would have been able to get the city/county/state to chip in the rest.

Then they would have held majority ownership in a brand new, state of the art stadium which would have elevated their franchise value at least as much as it has grown since 2016. Spanos only offered to put up $350M toward a San Diego stadium, but took on twice as much as that for the relocation fee and the move, neither of which provides the franchise with any equity. It is easy to look at the Forbes list and associate positive value with stadium equity, and the Chargers have none, and they never will as long as they are Kroenke's tenant.

Doesn't seem like a smart business decision in retrospect, especially considering they gave up their San Diego fan base and haven't seemingly been able to build one in LA, which also has some effect on the long term bottom line.
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An ownership transfer from the Spanoses to Bezos would be the greatest day in Charger history.

That means it will never happen.

Still rooting for Dea to get the Spanoses away from my favorite team.

 
Forrest Lamp G signs with the Bills.

I'm sure he'll never miss another game to injury the rest of his career now that he's not a Charger anymore, and in 2025 people will be making fun of the Bolts for letting him go.

 
I'm trying not to pay much attention to draft hype this year. I'd prefer to ignore the draft until it actually happens.

But it's hard not to get excited about the prospect of Patrick Surtain or Rashawn Slater dropping to #13. (I assume there's no chance at getting Penei Sewell.) I'd be fine with Jaycee Horn as well. If five QBs are taken in the first twelve picks, there will be an excellent prospect at a position of need on the board at #13.

(If Slater is off the board, #13 might be too high for the other tackles, but they could trade down and get one later in the first round.)

 
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I have no faith that Telesco will fix the offensive line through the draft. His track record indicates he's not capable of it.

 
There are 25 "analysts" profiled in the latest Chargers Mock Draft Tracker. Here's how it breaks down:

OT
Rashawn Slater, Northwestern (8)
Christian Darrisaw, VT (7)
Penei Sewell, Oregon (2) *one of them involved a trade up
Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC (1)

CB
Jaycee Horn, South Carolina (2)

WR
Devonta Smith, Alabama (2)
Jaylen Waddle, Alabama (1)

EDGE
Gregory Rousseau, Miami (1)

TE
Kyle Pitts, Florida (1)

 
Despyzer said:
There are 25 "analysts" profiled in the latest Chargers Mock Draft Tracker. Here's how it breaks down:

OT
Rashawn Slater, Northwestern (8)
Christian Darrisaw, VT (7)
Penei Sewell, Oregon (2) *one of them involved a trade up
Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC (1)

CB
Jaycee Horn, South Carolina (2)

WR
Devonta Smith, Alabama (2)
Jaylen Waddle, Alabama (1)

EDGE
Gregory Rousseau, Miami (1)

TE
Kyle Pitts, Florida (1)
Click to expand...
IMO:

  • Sewell, Slater, Horn, and Pitts are unlikely to make it to pick 13
  • The team should not even entertain drafting a WR at pick 13 - the needs at LT and CB are too great, plus the team just drafted 2 WRs last season and solid #3/#4 WRs behind Allen and Williams... this just isn't needed
  • I also don't think the team should consider an Edge player unless possibly in a worst case scenario like having all 4 OTs, CBs Horn and Surtain, and Pitts all gone by that point... but they should then try to trade back in that scenario
I like Daniel Popper, the Chargers beat writer for the Athletic. In his recent third mock draft, he has the team drafting Darrisaw after trading back to #20. I'm skeptical he would last to that pick, but I like him as the pick if Sewell, Slater, Surtain, and Horn are all off the board. Frankly, I think I'd prefer Darrisaw to both corners, also, but I'd at least be okay with the team drafting one of them.

 
As much as I would like to see OL in round 1 I will be surprised if that's what they get.  Their OL was one of the worst by just about any measure but points per game and yards were still in the middle of the pack last year.  That shows just how impressive Herbert was last year. The FA acquisitions on OL makes me think that will be less of a focus for the top pick. 

Defense is where the most glaring needs are.  Most importantly in creating turnovers. Only 8 teams had less takeaways.  Id like Surtain or Horn.  If it's pass rush I'd prefer Paye over Rousseau; he's a freak.

My favorite scenario would be to see them trade down,  but Telesco doesn't seem to do that.  Darrisaw plus more picks would be awesome. I really like Teven Jenkins a lot.  I guess he's seen as more of a RT,  but he would still be an upgrade over Pipkins at LT and Bulaga is 32.

 
Who, if any, are likely trade down partners? Or is it just wait and see who panics on draft day to move up and reach for their guy?

 
Jail said:
Nice analysis.  I think you might be giving him more power than he has though with regard to the coaching decisions and contract negotiations. I put that stuff more on the Spanos family,  but I don't know if we'll really get answers on that stuff.  If he gets fired I will not be surprised to see him go on to be successful somewhere else. 
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Well, I opened the post by pointing out that the Spanos family has heavy influence, and thus bear some of the responsibility, but will never be fired, which means Telesco bears all of the accountability.

He could go on to be successful elsewhere if the ownership doesn't meddle as much. But I don't see him ever becoming one of the top GMs in the game.

 
Gr00vus said:
Who, if any, are likely trade down partners? Or is it just wait and see who panics on draft day to move up and reach for their guy?
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In Popper's Mock Draft 3.0, he traded back from 1.13 to 1.20 with the Bears, obtaining their second rounder in the process. He then drafted Darrisaw at 1.20. That would be an absolutely fantastic result, but I'm skeptical it would come together so conveniently.

The premise for the trade was that (1) Sewell, Slater, Surtain, and Horn were all gone at 1.13, and (2) Mac Jones was still on the board, which was the rationale for Chicago to move up. I could see (1), but I'm skeptical about (2).

 
I've seen some mock drafts with the Chargers ending up with Devonta Smith as their 1st rounder. Pitchforks and torches, or a decent gamble if no legitimate players at need positions are available at the pick and they can't trade down?

 
Gr00vus said:
I've seen some mock drafts with the Chargers ending up with Devonta Smith as their 1st rounder. Pitchforks and torches, or a decent gamble if no legitimate players at need positions are available at the pick and they can't trade down?
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Uhhg.  The 166 lb. Smith.  I would hate the pick.  But then, I didn't like the Herbert pick either, so that ought a show you what I know. 

 
Gr00vus said:
I've seen some mock drafts with the Chargers ending up with Devonta Smith as their 1st rounder. Pitchforks and torches, or a decent gamble if no legitimate players at need positions are available at the pick and they can't trade down?
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Pitchforks and torches for sure.  :hot:

WR is one of the strongest position groups on the team:

  • Allen - legit #1, signed through 2024
  • Williams - solid #2, only signed for 2021, but prime candidate for multi-year extension
  • Guyton - solid #3/#4, only signed through 2021, but will be RFA after 2021, remaining under team control
  • Johnson - solid #3/#4, only signed through 2021, but will be ERFA after 2021, remaining under team control
  • Reed - just drafted in 2020, signed through 2023
  • Hill - just drafted in 2020, signed through 2023
I suppose if the team was to let Williams walk as a UFA after 2021 season, it would be helpful to have a first round caliber WR under a rookie contract for 2022-2025. But drafting a WR in this draft implies to me that at least one of the WRs I named above would not make the final roster. (I actually think Hill won't make it as it is, but this would likely push someone else out.) The Chargers are currently #4 in 2021 cap dollars allocated to WR; drafting any WR at 13 would probably push them to #1.

More importantly:

  1. The group of WRs above is good enough for the team to succeed on offense in 2021. We just saw that last season.
  2. The OL group, at least at LT, is not good enough for the team to succeed on offense in 2021.  We just saw that last season.
  3. The CB group is not good enough for the team to succeed on defense in 2021.  We just saw that last season.
  4. IMO it is unlikely the team can fix both of those issues in the draft if it uses its first round pick on another position like WR.
Beyond all of that, Smith weighs 170 pounds and is 6'0" tall. How many WRs have been highly successful at that size in the NFL within the past decade? And I have to laugh at fans who say he will just put on 20 pounds, as if Alabama doesn't have a pro-caliber strength and conditioning program. Consider the weaknesses in his NFL draft profile:

  • Bone-thin with playing weight near 170.
  • Teams will have concerns about his frame and durability.
  • Feisty but lacking average play strength.
  • Can be forced against sideline on outside release.
  • Gets jostled at the top of the route at times.
  • Big NFL cornerbacks will close some high-point windows on him.
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Bone thin is not the type of player worth the 13th pick in the draft IMO.

Let some other team take the high risk / high reward gamble on him.

 
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Zod said:
Sewell would be amazing for the Chargers
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That would be amazing. Unlikely though. Seems like most mocks have the Chargers ending up with Darrisaw or Slater. I've seen a few with them getting a CB in Surtain or Horn.

Is Sewell that much better than Darrisaw or Slater that it'd be worth trading up to get him?

 
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Gr00vus said:
That would be amazing. Unlikely though. Seems like most mocks have the Chargers ending up with Darrisaw or Slater. I've seen a few with them getting a CB in Surtain or Horn.
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Seems extremely likely these 9 guys will be drafted in the first 12 picks:

  • QB (5) - Lawrence, Wilson, Fields, Lance, Jones
  • OT (1) - Sewell
  • TE (1) - Pitts
  • WR (1) - Chase
  • CB (1) - Surtain
The other 3 will presumably come from this group:

  • OT (1) - Slater
  • WR (2) - Smith, Waddle
  • LB (1) - Parsons
  • CB (2) - Horn, Farley
I would rank my choices for the Chargers in order as Sewell, Slater, Surtain, Horn, Darrisaw. So IMO Darrisaw should be the worst case scenario at 1.13. I'd also be okay with trading back if Darrisaw is the only one left at that point, though I'm not sure there will be a trade partner looking to trade up for a non-QB.

 
Seems like if they wanted to trade up into the Sewell zone (like pick 6 if you want to be pretty sure to get him), they'd have to give up their 1st, 2nd and 5th (if you believe those draft spot value calculators). And there's no guarantee anyone in that draft spot area would want to trade down anyway.

 
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Gr00vus said:
Seems like if they wanted to trade up into the Sewell zone (like pick 6 if you want to be pretty sure to get him), they'd have to give up their 1st, 2nd and 5th (if you believe those draft spot value calculators). And there's no guarantee anyone in that draft spot area would want to trade down anyway.
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I think it'd be better to draft three OTs with the Chargers' original picks rather than just one by trading up.

Sewell is great, but Darrisaw (worst case) plus two others would also be great.

 
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Maurile Tremblay said:
I think it'd be better to draft three OTs with the Chargers' original picks rather than just one by trading up.

Sewell is great, but Darrisaw (worst case) plus two others would also be great.
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I feel similarly. The Chargers have a need to improve both the starting line and the line depth (along with the other areas of the roster that need help), and I think shedding picks to narrow focus on one player is the wrong approach right now.

 
I would be more okay with the possibility of trading up into late first like last year if that enabled the team to get a first round LT and first round CB... especially since they have 2 3rd round picks this year, so trading 2nd/3rd round picks wouldn't freeze them out of day 2 of the draft.

For example, suppose they were able to draft Horn at 1.13, and Darrisaw slid a bit, and they could trade 2nd and 3rd round picks to move back up in the first and take him. I'd be okay with that. In fact, that would be preferable IMO to taking Darrisaw at 1.13, a 2nd round corner, and then having an extra 3rd round pick.

That is a wholly different scenario than trading up from 1.13 to 1.7 (or similar) to draft Sewell. I think the cost is too great for that type of move.

This is the kind of flexibility that actually having a 3rd round compensatory pick provides. Given this is rare for the Chargers, it may be appropriate to take advantage, depending on how the first round unfolds.

 
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