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*** Official Chargers 2021 Thread - There may be a double digit number of Charger fans on this board (more research pending).***


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1 hour ago, JohnnyU said:

I saw that Barnwell article and stopped reading it after this notional trade, which was the first one. This would never happen. The Jaguars probably wouldn't do it, though they should, but the Chargers absolutely should not even consider it.

Herbert is as proven on the NFL field as any player can be after one season. He only has one fewer season of cost control than Lawrence. Herbert is worth more than 1.1 right now IMO; there is no guarantee Lawrence will ever play as well as Herbert did in 2020. Herbert just had one of the few best seasons in NFL history for a rookie QB.

James has had health issues which are concerning, but he was 1st Team All Pro as a rookie. He is worth much more than 3.1.

So those two combined are worth much more than Lawrence and pick 3.1, and Barnwell says the Chargers would also have to throw in 1.13?!?! NFW

To make it interesting enough for the Chargers to consider, it would have to be adjusted the other way, with more value going to the Chargers. Something like: 1.1, 2.1, 3.1 for Herbert and James. The Jags would never do that, and understandably so... but I would strongly consider that if I were the Chargers, though I suspect they still wouldn't do it, since Herbert and James are two young faces of their franchise, along with Bosa and Allen.

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I had read an article or two speculating that the Chargers might have been in the market for Orlando Brown as a way to address the tackle opening and then use their 1st rounder on another position. That option is now off the table (if it was ever on it) with Brown getting dealt to the Chiefs.

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8 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

I saw that Barnwell article and stopped reading it after this notional trade, which was the first one. This would never happen. The Jaguars probably wouldn't do it, though they should, but the Chargers absolutely should not even consider it.

Herbert is as proven on the NFL field as any player can be after one season. He only has one fewer season of cost control than Lawrence. Herbert is worth more than 1.1 right now IMO; there is no guarantee Lawrence will ever play as well as Herbert did in 2020. Herbert just had one of the few best seasons in NFL history for a rookie QB.

James has had health issues which are concerning, but he was 1st Team All Pro as a rookie. He is worth much more than 3.1.

So those two combined are worth much more than Lawrence and pick 3.1, and Barnwell says the Chargers would also have to throw in 1.13?!?! NFW

To make it interesting enough for the Chargers to consider, it would have to be adjusted the other way, with more value going to the Chargers. Something like: 1.1, 2.1, 3.1 for Herbert and James. The Jags would never do that, and understandably so... but I would strongly consider that if I were the Chargers, though I suspect they still wouldn't do it, since Herbert and James are two young faces of their franchise, along with Bosa and Allen.

It is interesting how there is some ambivalence to put Herbert as a top QB. I must admit that I have some myself,  but I think that's just my jaded Charger fan scepticism. If Lawrence comes out and has a rookie season like Herbert just did he'd be called the next Manning.  

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Posted (edited)

Pro Football Focus ranks the Chargers roster 25th in their pre-draft rankings.

This seems right to me. I think the overall roster has been pretty crummy for several years now. They have standouts at a few spots (some of whom have problems staying healthy), and the above average QB play has masked the general poor talent level.

There's been a narrative I've heard pretty frequently that the Chargers are a talented team and that they're just a few moves away from being a playoff/championship contender. Again, I haven't felt that way for 6 to 10 years. I think their perception has been skewed somewhat on this board because they've managed to produce some useful fantasy players pretty consistently over that time, but as an NFL team, they haven't been good in a while.

They'd have to hit big on several picks this year to change that much, as I don't think there are difference makers left in free agency right now.

Edited by Gr00vus
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1 hour ago, Gr00vus said:

Pro Football Focus ranks the Chargers roster 25th in their pre-draft rankings.

This seems right to me. I think the overall roster has been pretty crummy for several years now. They have standouts at a few spots (some of whom have problems staying healthy), and the above average QB play has masked the general poor talent level.

There's been a narrative I've heard pretty frequently that the Chargers are a talented team and that they're just a few moves away from being a playoff/championship contender. Again, I haven't felt that way for 6 to 10 years. I think their perception has been skewed somewhat on this board because they've managed to produce some useful fantasy players pretty consistently over that time, but as an NFL team, they haven't been good in a while.

They'd have to hit big on several picks this year to change that much, as I don't think there are difference makers left in free agency right now.

I agree this is the right ballpark. Having the QBOTF position solved is huge and could warrant being a little higher. But:

  • OL has been awful for years - looks improved but must address LT, obviously.
  • IDL has been at least below average for years - Joseph improved it, but he is old, and I'm expecting Tillery and Bosa to play mostly DE in Staley's defense, so this arguably remains an issue.
  • Special teams has been generally awful for years - who knows if the personnel will be better; the coaching could certainly make a difference here, since it has been bad in the recent past.
  • Too many impact starters have had health issues that mitigated their positive impact. James is a prime example. Part of the problem has been reliance on signing veteran free agents since the drafting has been generally subpar for years... those veterans are older and have more trouble staying healthy.
  • Beyond everything above, depth has been weak because drafting and drafting strategy (e.g., trading up 4 times but never trading down) has generally been subpar.

Hoping that Staley is the real deal, and (a) he can better coach up the players, and (b) he can have a positive influence on smarter draft decisions.

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Posted (edited)

Yeah, I think the front office has been pretty bad at draft strategy and draft talent evaluation for the last 10 years or so (the Telesco years basically). The roster shows it. It's a recipe for NFL irrelevancy.

Edited by Gr00vus
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13 hours ago, Gr00vus said:

Yeah, I think the front office has been pretty bad at draft strategy and draft talent evaluation for the last 10 years or so (the Telesco years basically). The roster shows it. It's a recipe for NFL irrelevancy.

I have a feeling the Dolphins are building something.

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2 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

I have a feeling the Dolphins are building something.

Could be. Not sure Tua will become a championship level qb though, they need to be careful there not to stick with him too long if he isn't progressing.

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5 hours ago, Gr00vus said:

Could be. Not sure Tua will become a championship level qb though, they need to be careful there not to stick with him too long if he isn't progressing.

Dolphin fan here and we shall see.  I think that Herbert may be another Marino for all the good and bad that will mean.  He will be good enough to get stats and wins, but maybe not good enough to get the supporting cast to put him over the top.  The league is different than it was when Dan was around, so the chargers could make a run if they don't make everything a shootout (ie, get a defense).  

Then again they may suffer the same fate as the Rivers chargers except instead of New England it will be The Chiefs and Mahomes basically keeping them from breaking through.

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1 hour ago, Gatorman said:

Dolphin fan here and we shall see.  I think that Herbert may be another Marino for all the good and bad that will mean.  He will be good enough to get stats and wins, but maybe not good enough to get the supporting cast to put him over the top.  The league is different than it was when Dan was around, so the chargers could make a run if they don't make everything a shootout (ie, get a defense).  

Then again they may suffer the same fate as the Rivers chargers except instead of New England it will be The Chiefs and Mahomes basically keeping them from breaking through.

Marino, Fouts, and Rivers are three of the best QBs ever without any rings. I can definitely envision Justin Herbert joining that group.

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5 minutes ago, Maurile Tremblay said:

Marino, Fouts, and Rivers are three of the best QBs ever without any rings. I can definitely envision Justin Herbert joining that group.

Uhhg.  So sad,  so true. 

Man those are 3 of my favorite players of all time.  Fouts and Rivers for obvious reasons. Marino wasn't a Charger,  but he was the best passer I've ever seen. Watching him play was really when I became a huge football fan.

I sure hope Herbert doesn't join that group. 

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15 hours ago, Maurile Tremblay said:

I can definitely envision Justin Herbert joining that group.

Oh, come on!  The kid has played 15 games.

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16 hours ago, Maurile Tremblay said:

Marino, Fouts, and Rivers are three of the best QBs ever without any rings. I can definitely envision Justin Herbert joining that group.

That would still be an awesome career, there are a lot of top QBs that never win championships. Seems like high praise here.

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2 minutes ago, rzrback77 said:

That would still be an awesome career, there are a lot of top QBs that never win championships. Seems like high praise here.

True, but a fan base doesn't think career, they think rings.  Again, Herbert is the type of player NFL defenses should fear, and this has all the makings of Marino/Kelly for Herbert/Mahomes.  They should build a D around Bosa and an O around Herbert.  

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1 hour ago, Gatorman said:

True, but a fan base doesn't think career, they think rings.  Again, Herbert is the type of player NFL defenses should fear, and this has all the makings of Marino/Kelly for Herbert/Mahomes.  They should build a D around Bosa and an O around Herbert.  

I agree if you are a Chargers fan, championships are the hope, but if Herbert is that good, it’s a blessing regardless of winning championships or not.

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2 hours ago, Gr00vus said:

I'm giddy with dread. Reconciling myself to the notion they'll stick at 13 and draft a WR (or do something even more disappointing).

This is gold... "giddy with dread" is perfect.

Edited by Just Win Baby
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On 4/27/2021 at 6:53 PM, Maurile Tremblay said:

Marino, Fouts, and Rivers are three of the best QBs ever without any rings. I can definitely envision Justin Herbert joining that group.

Since 2 of the 3 played for the Chargers, I can see why you are so optimistic. 

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27 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

This is gold... "giddy with dread" is perfect.

I just know they'll end up with a kick returner or a slot receiver at 13 and then it'll be wishes and hopes for a LT and CB from there on out. :cry:

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If any of the top three OTs or top three CBs are available at #13 and the Chargers don't pick one.... I'm gonna lose it.

I don't want to hear "too early for Darrisaw." There's not that much separation between him and Sewell. No one even seems to agree who the top CB of those three is.

If one of them of those six is available and they pick a WR... I might do something crazy and start rooting for the Lions.

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  • Gr00vus changed the title to *** Official Chargers 2021 Thread - Highest Draft Pick Used On OL Since....D.J. Fluker ***

Rashawn Slater joins Walt Sweeney, Russ Washington, Bob Rush, Jim Lachey, James Fitzpatrick, and D.J. Fluker as 1st round OL picks for the Chargers since their inception in 1960. Slater and Fluker are the only 1st round draft choices the Chargers have used on OL since 1986.

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33 minutes ago, Gr00vus said:

What are we looking at on day 2? Anyone you folks are holding out hope for in particular?

My view of the team's needs in priority order:

  1. Starting outside corner - no player on the roster right now to play opposite Davis
  2. Starting caliber safety - need to mitigate risk that James can't stay on the field and/or Adderley does not develop; Gilman is not good enough IMO
  3. Pass rush/OLB - could use more pass rushers in 2021, and both Nwosu and Fackrell are UFAs after the 2021 season; also not sure who the other OLB is besides Nwosu... White? if so, he is also a UFA after the season
  4. IDL - Joseph is is fairly old for a NT/DT, turning 33 in October; Joseph and Justin Jones are both UFAs after the 2021 season
  5. OL depth - starters all look good on paper, but we are an injury away from Pipkins, St. Louis, Norton, or Quessenberry having to step in
  6. TE - unless the team feels certain that Parham is a year away from being a starting-caliber TE, they don't have one beyond the 2021 season; Parham and Cook are also weak at run blocking, so could use a well-rounded TE to groom for a year or two

I'm hoping the team gets a CB they like in the second. Then, with the two third rounders, I'm hoping for a safety and an edge player.

I wouldn't mind if they doubled up with a second OL player with one of the third round picks, especially if they feel good about getting a particular safety they like in the 4th.

I could see Telesco drafting TE Tremble from Notre Dame at 97, both because of the need mentioned above and to fit his Notre Dame draft tendency.

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Posted (edited)

Amazing that Slater was available at 1.13 and Samuel was available at 2.15. Pretty much the best case scenario for the first two picks. :thumbup: 

Completely unsurprising that Telesco botched the first 3rd round pick. Consider his 3rd round history:

  • 2013 (76) - WR Keenan Allen - the one exception, obviously a great pick
  • 2014 (89) - G Chris Watt, Notre Dame - bust who was out of the league within two seasons
  • 2015 (83) - CB Craig Mager, Texas State - complete reach and bust, out of the league
  • 2016 (66) - C Max Tuerk, USC - reach and bust who was out of the league within two seasons
  • 2017 (71) - G Dan Feeney, Indiana - bust might be overstating it, since he was a 3rd rounder who played a lot of snaps, but his play was well below average and is no longer on the roster
  • 2018 (84) - DT Justin Jones, NC State - I'm a NC State alum, so I'm a Jones fan, but he was the weakest starter on a completely loaded DL in college and was a reach; he wasn't good in his first two seasons but was better last season, so maybe he will salvage the pick this season
  • 2019 (91) - OT Trey Pipkins, Sioux Falls - I suppose the jury remains out, but looks like a bust
  • 2020 (N/A) - Traded pick away to move up to draft LB Murray
  • 2021 (77) - WR Josh Palmer, Tennessee - jury's obviously out, but ran a 4.51 and not known as a great route runner; he never had 500 receiving yards or 5 receiving TDs in a college season; looks like another reach

In the last 7 drafts prior to this one, the best use Telesco made of any 3rd round pick was to trade it in 2020 to move up in the draft... let that sink in.

It's especially odd since Telesco has found some good value in later rounds, like Tranquill in the 4th, Jenkins in the 4th,  King in the 5th, etc. It's like he (or John Spanos) wants to use their third round picks to reach for a high risk player.

This would seem to guarantee that at least one of the 6 WRs I thought were going to be strong contenders for the final roster (Allen, Williams, Guyton, Tyron Johnson, Reed, Hill) won't make it.

Just seems like a lousy use of draft capital IMO. Doesn't seem like he could possibly have been BPA on the board, and doesn't fill a need. :thumbdown: 

Hoping Telesco can salvage the third round with pick 97.

Edited by Just Win Baby
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Posted (edited)

Posted this in another thread. As of Tuesday, here were some of Palmer's rankings:

  • Pro Football Focus: #71 overall, #10 WR
  • NFL.com: 6.24 grade, #12 WR, 4th round projection
  • The Athletic: #131 overall, #20 WR
  • Pro Football Network: #136 overall, #22 WR
  • CBS Sports: #139 overall, #23 WR
  • Draftek.com: #182 overall, #27 WR
  • ESPN: #184 overall, #31 WR
  • The Draft Network: #225 overall, #35 WR

Palmer was the 11th WR drafted, taken with pick #77.

We can only hope that PFF did a better job of grading him than the rest.

Even though I think this was a bad pick, I do think Palmer has more upside than any of the Chargers WRs after Allen and Williams. He could eventually displace Guyton and Johnson to become the #3 WR, but not sure it will happen this year, barring injuries.

Edited by Just Win Baby
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Posted (edited)

Here were some of McKitty's rankings:

  • Pro Football Network: #144 overall, #7 TE
  • The Draft Network: #159 overall, #7 TE
  • The Athletic: #185 overall, #8 TE
  • Draftek: #196 overall, #8 TE
  • CBS Sports: #212 overall, #7 TE
  • Pro Football Focus: #246 overall, #13 TE
  • NFL.com: 5.64 grade, #304T overall, #14 TE, 6th/7th round projection

McKitty was the 5th TE drafted, taken with pick #97.

So... we have to hope PFF and NFL.com are right about Palmer and wrong about McKitty... and the others are right about McKitty and wrong about Palmer. :mellow: 

Despite some of the rankings above, this feels like less of a reach to me than Palmer. McKitty will be a better blocking TE than Cook and Parham, and that was a need. This pick probably pushes either FB Nabers or TE Anderson off the final roster.

Edited by Just Win Baby
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1 hour ago, Gr00vus said:

Any idea why Samuel dropped so far? Or was that about where he was expected to go?

He may have dropped a bit, but not much. He is 5'10", 180 lbs, so on the smaller side of the spectrum for NFL success.

Given Staley's reputation, I am optimistic he will be a good player for the Chargers.

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I like the Rumph pick, which seems like a good value pick. That could make up for some of the reaching in the third round. Despite my misgivings about the third round picks, I still think this has been a very good draft so far.

I can only assume the team is planning to sign a veteran free agent safety at this point. I'm pretty surprised they haven't drafted one through their first 5 picks.

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It seems to be a prerequisite that any player selected by Telesco must have been at the senior bowl.  

I was underwhelmed by the 3rd round picks as well. But also very happy about the 1st and 2nd picks.  The guys at PFF really liked the Palmer pick.  

I guess time will tell.  Overall I am happy with what they have done. 

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Posted this morning: 2021 Chargers Roster Thoughts - Post Draft

TL;DR - Offense seems set. I think they have 3 remaining roster positions to solve on defense:

  • Need to add a veteran free safety
  • Need to add 1-2 IDL player(s)
  • May need to add a pass rusher, particularly if Staley's second OLB is a guy who stands up on the line and plays as an edge player... or could this be Fackrell?
  • ...or, if his second OLB is more ike a 4-3 WLB, may need to add a more traditional LB, whether OLB with Tranquill and Murray playing ILB or ILB to enable Tranquill or Murray to play WLB... or is this White?

They have about $13.7M in available cap space to address these, which should be more than enough.

I am assuming those needs above are not filled by 28 players under contract, including the 10 UDFAs they had signed as of yesterday... I identified just 52 of the 80 players currently signed as being really strong contenders for the final roster and figure a couple of those offensive players will get bumped in favor of defensive spots. So there is a chance that one or more of those players I eliminated will end up surprising me and filling needs identified above.

Thoughts?

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They need another, better safety. What's out there in the FA pool?

Also, I have no idea how the defensive front 7 actually gets configured given the guys they currently have. Seems like a misuse of Bosa to bring him inside as a DE in a 3-4. I really don't know who else generates pass rush on this roster either. I'm not on the Nwosu train as of yet. Rumph?

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On 5/2/2021 at 10:28 AM, Just Win Baby said:

Posted this morning: 2021 Chargers Roster Thoughts - Post Draft

TL;DR - Offense seems set. I think they have 3 remaining roster positions to solve on defense:

  • Need to add a veteran free safety
  • Need to add 1-2 IDL player(s)
  • May need to add a pass rusher, particularly if Staley's second OLB is a guy who stands up on the line and plays as an edge player... or could this be Fackrell?
  • ...or, if his second OLB is more ike a 4-3 WLB, may need to add a more traditional LB, whether OLB with Tranquill and Murray playing ILB or ILB to enable Tranquill or Murray to play WLB... or is this White?

They have about $13.7M in available cap space to address these, which should be more than enough.

I am assuming those needs above are not filled by 28 players under contract, including the 10 UDFAs they had signed as of yesterday... I identified just 52 of the 80 players currently signed as being really strong contenders for the final roster and figure a couple of those offensive players will get bumped in favor of defensive spots. So there is a chance that one or more of those players I eliminated will end up surprising me and filling needs identified above.

Thoughts?

Nice summary. All this optimism from you is making me nervous 😉

I think it's going to be hard for us to predict exactly where everyone will play on defense because I don't think Staley is the type that will force a specific scheme. I agree with Gr00vus that putting Bosa as a straight 3-4 DE would be a waste.  I think Staley is too smart for that, and will likely move him around in some ways.  Jason Taylor once transitioned from 4-3 DE to a 3-4 OLB. Not sure that Bosa is athletic as he was,  but I would guess we'll see him at least sometimes from LB position.  I guess we'll have to see how it goes 

 

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On 5/3/2021 at 3:40 PM, Gr00vus said:

Here's a list of available FA as of May 3 2021.

Well no reason to wait anymore, so I would like to see at least one of those old man pass rushers signed. Ideally with a cap friendly incentive deal.  I'd imagine lining up opposite Bosa will motivate someone. 

Overthecap has released their predictions for compensatory picks now that window is closed and I was surprised to see them projecting 3 6th rounders and 1 7th. 

I thought with the fa pickups that wasn't happening,  but I guess the Henry and Linsley deals cancel each other as well as the Feiler and Jenkins cancel out.  So they get 6s for Tevi, Taylor and Feeney.  7 for Perryman 

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Posted (edited)

The have Ingram highest ranked of the old man pass rushers available. Bring him back if the price is right? Dude has trouble staying healthy, and the new regime owes him no allegiance. Still I don't know that there's better out there for them.

Edited by Gr00vus
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11 minutes ago, Jail said:

Well no reason to wait anymore, so I would like to see at least one of those old man pass rushers signed. Ideally with a cap friendly incentive deal.  I'd imagine lining up opposite Bosa will motivate someone. 

Overthecap has released their predictions for compensatory picks now that window is closed and I was surprised to see them projecting 3 6th rounders and 1 7th. 

I thought with the fa pickups that wasn't happening,  but I guess the Henry and Linsley deals cancel each other as well as the Feiler and Jenkins cancel out.  So they get 6s for Tevi, Taylor and Feeney.  7 for Perryman 

Hadn't seen that. Nice. :thumbup: 

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8 minutes ago, Gr00vus said:

The have Ingram highest ranked of the old man pass rushers available. Bring him back if the price is right? Dude has trouble staying healthy, and the new regime owes him no allegiance. Still I don't know that there's better out there for them.

No thanks. I appreciate Ingram for his time with the Chargers, but I can't imagine they can sign him for a true bargain price. Would rather they sign others at value prices.

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  • Gr00vus changed the title to *** Official Chargers 2021 Thread - There may be a double digit number of Charger fans on this board (more research pending).***

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