CANDIDATES
ERIC BIENEMY — OC, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
A former second-round pick by the Chargers, Bienemy has been an assistant in the NFL for quite some time. He has overseen the development of league MVPs under his tutelage, from Adrian Peterson in Minnesota to Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City.
He’s never been the primary play caller for the Chiefs — a job that Andy Reid has mostly held down — but that hasn’t kept other Reid assistants such as Brad Childress, Doug Pederson and Matt Nagy from producing 12-win seasons as head coaches after leaving Reid.
After years of being overlooked, he’s finally being considered a top candidate, and his exclusion from consideration for the Houston job has already drawn the ire of superstar quarterback Deshaun Watson.
JOE BRADY — OC, CAROLINA PANTHERS
We’ve often confessed our appreciation for Joe Brady. After taking a wildly average LSU offense in 2018 to the national championship in 2019, he finished the 2020 regular season with the third-highest offensive play caller rating.
Brady directed an offense with Teddy Bridgewaterand P.J. Walker at quarterback to the league’s 17th-best yards per play mark, keeping them within one score in eight of their 11 losses. He doesn’t have any head-coaching experience, which is an obvious issue, but other up-and-coming coaches have been able to come out of the gate without said experience, as well. His star will only get brighter, so look for a team to snatch him up this round.
ROBERT SALEH — DC, SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Despite a season full of injuries and COVID-19 issues, the 49ers allowed only 5.0 yards per play on defense — good for fourth in the NFL. This earned Saleh the highest mark in our defensive play caller ratings.
There were some questions about how he handled the fourth quarter of Super Bowl LIV, but aside from surrendering a lead to one of the best quarterbacks to enter the league since the merger, he’s done a great job developing young talent — Fred Warner, Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner, among others — while assimilating newcomers such as Richard Sherman.
While defensive-minded coaches are not necessarily positive expected value long-term due to instability on the offensive side of the ball vis-à-vis the play caller, Saleh deserves an opportunity to lead a team. Will it be Detroit?
MATT EBERFLUS — DC, INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Eberflus has already turned down a chance to interview for the Texans job, a team he is 5-2 against during his time coordinating the Indianapolis Colts' defense.
After leading a good, not great, bend-but-don’t-break defense during his first two years as a coordinator, Eberflus’ group largely carried the Colts to their 11-5 record, earning the eighth-best opponent-adjusted grade from us.
The Colts have a great analytical culture under Frank Reich and Chris Ballard, and if any of that has rubbed off on Eberflus, this could be a great hire.
TIM KELLY — OC/QBS, HOUSTON TEXANS
Kelly, who was interviewed by his current team last week, oversaw an offense that was categorically not the reason why Houston won just four games in 2020. The Texans ranked first in yards per play in 2020, with quarterback Deshaun Watson earning over 3.3 wins above replacement in what was his best season — a campaign he played significant parts of without DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller V or Kenny Stills.
Given the Texans’ dysfunction, I’m not sure continuity is what the anecdote is right now, but Kelly, like Watson, is something good about the team. And if keeping him makes Watson happy, it might be a good idea.
GREG ROMAN — OC, BALTIMORE RAVENS
While the Ravens' offense regressed some from what was a historic 2019 season, much of said regression can be attributed to losing three parts of the league’s most valuable offensive line and an injury to Lamar Jackson.
In fact, Roman fell only from the fourth-best play caller in our rankings in 2019 to fifth in 2020, with his team putting up over 385 yards in each of its final five games — all wins. There has to be some concern over what transpired in San Francisco vis-à-vis Colin Kaepernick’s regression and the lack of quarterbacks with his or Jackson’s talents freely available, but Roman has earned the opportunity to be considered.
TODD BOWLES — DC, TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Bowles has been a head coach twice, once in an interim role with the Dolphins and once for the Jets, where he compiled a 24-40 record. The former Washington and San Francisco safety has been one of the best defensive play callers in the league since rejoining Bruce Arians in Tampa.
Rebuilding a Tampa defense that was one of the worst in the league when he got there into one of the best, starting from back to front, has been very impressive. Obvious questions remain about his acumen as a head coach, but given how well he’s done in each spot sans New York, he’s probably good for another opportunity.
ARTHUR SMITH — OC, TENNESSEE TITANS
Smith has been in command of the Tennessee Titans' offense the past two years, wherein they have finished fourth in yards per play in both campaigns. Ryan Tannehill, after having fallen out of favor with Miami, has been one of the most efficient passers in the NFL over the past two years, averaging 9.7 and 13.5 yards per play-action pass attempt in those seasons.
Many will point to Derrick Henry’s two league-leading seasons on the ground as another positive, while skeptics will point toward prehistorical run/pass ratios as evidence of a flaw in his approach.
Smith has a Shanahan-like ceiling as a head coach and also calls plays, but he has a pretty low floor if he’s not endowed with the talent he has in Tennessee.
JOSH MCDANIELS — OC, NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
After rescinding his acceptance of the Indianapolis head coaching position prior to the 2018 season, McDaniels has fallen each year in our offensive play caller rankings, down to 30th in the NFL in 2020.
Without Tom Brady in 2020, the Patriots' offense finished 23rd in yards per play and 23rd in net adjusted yards per passing play. In his prior life as a head coach who called plays for the Broncos, McDaniels finished 17th and 30th in our rankings, leading to an early dismissal.
It will be interesting to see what people are interested in, given McDaniels' history and that of most other Bill Belichick disciples when they leave the nest.
URBAN MEYER
Meyer has been rumored to be a frontrunner for the Jaguars job after two years off following a stellar run as the head coach of Ohio State. During the PFF College era (2014-present) Meyer’s Buckeyes earned the fourth-most wins above average, trailing only Alabama, Clemson and Oklahoma.
That said, they earned the country’s second-most wins above average after he left in 2019, and his ability as a recruiter (he was the third-best by 247Sports' metrics) will be less relevant in the NFL. I’m a bit skeptical about this one.
JASON GARRETT — OC, NEW YORK GIANTS
Garrett, the former head coach of the Dallas Cowboys, struggled this year in his return to the offensive coordinator role for the Giants, failing to earn an offensive play caller rating in the top half of the league.
He was 18 games over .500 during the regular season in his 10 seasons with the Cowboys, although there are legitimate questions about whether he got the most out of a team that had some of the NFL's best talent during his time — including ranking first in yards per play offensively in his final year when Dallas went 8-8.