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Team breakdowns:

BUF - $195 (11 players)
GB - $184 (13 players)
KC - $182 (11 players)
NO - $173 (12 players)
TB - $159 (11 players)
SEA - $116 (13 players)
BAL - $111 (10 players)
PIT - $106 (11 players)
TEN - $80 (9 players)
LAR - $69 (11 players)
IND - $66 (11 players)
CLE - $65 (9 players)
CHI - $54 (10 players)
WAS - $53 (10 players)

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Been through about 6 rosters now, went one way with my SB picks then completely reset it and went a different way. The big question is will last year be a fluke or will there be low numbers week 1 and essentially waste money on 6 teams that won't potentially advance or will there be more than 4K entries. I'm sure I will blow it all up and start fresh again tomorrow, so there is always that....😏 

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1 hour ago, Dacomish said:

Been through about 6 rosters now, went one way with my SB picks then completely reset it and went a different way. The big question is will last year be a fluke or will there be low numbers week 1 and essentially waste money on 6 teams that won't potentially advance or will there be more than 4K entries. I'm sure I will blow it all up and start fresh again tomorrow, so there is always that....😏 

Yes, this. Was the # 4K last year?

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32 minutes ago, bcnfinance said:

Yes, this. Was the # 4K last year?

Yes and it was crap.  It would be easy to go with 10% if less than 4K entrants and 4 K if over for the first week.  Force people to have to play the game as intended.  

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You are all forgetting that there were 4 BYEs last year, and there are only 2 this year. If you think the SB will be KCC vs. GBP then, yeah, I guess it would matter. Otherwise it will not...

Last year was a total fluke, I think, and although I am 100% in favor of the cutoffs being a percentage pf the entries, doesn't change the fact that comparing last year to this year is nearly impossible and likely totally irrelevant.

 

The much bigger problem is that the pricing of the elite-level guys is crazy off the charts. This year's winner will be the person(s) that accidentally guess(es) correctly on the super-cheap guys that score big the first 3 weeks.

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2nd attempt:

QB - Aaron Rodgers - GB - $36
RB - Aaron Jones - GB - $25
WR - Davante Adams - GB - $36
WR - Allen Lazard - GB - $13
 

 

QB - Ben Roethlisberger - PIT - $22
RB - James Conner - PIT - $12
WR - Diontae Johnson - PIT - $14
WR - Chase Claypool - PIT - $12

 

QB - Russell Wilson - SEA - $25
WR - DK Metcalf - SEA - $20
 

RB - Jonathan Taylor - IND - $11
 

RB - LeVeon Bell - KC - $9
 

WR - Antonio Brown - TB - $15

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Wow. Having a doozy of a time with it. I'm not sure how to approach it. It used to be that you picked two winners and filled in guys you thought would go far and score a lot, but it seems like more and more people spread out their players over multiple teams, making the second cutoff especially difficult. 

I've got Buffalo/Tampa Bay going so far and this, thinking that Baltimore beats both TEN and KC. Criticize away if you'd like. 

QB - Josh Allen - BUF - $40
QB - Tom Brady - TB - $28
RB - Ronald Jones - TB - $19
RB - J.K. Dobbins - BAL - $15
RB - Zack Moss - BUF - $13
WR - Stefon Diggs - BUF - $32
WR - Chris Godwin - TB - $20
WR - John Brown - BUF - $18
WR - Cole Beasley - BUF - $15
WR - Antonio Brown - TB - $15
WR - Marquez Callaway - NO - $5
WR - Miles Boykin - BAL - $3
WR - Dez Bryant - BAL - $3
PK - Tyler Bass - BUF - $14
PK - Ryan Succop - TB - $10

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4 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Wow. Having a doozy of a time with it. I'm not sure how to approach it. It used to be that you picked two winners and filled in guys you thought would go far and score a lot, but it seems like more and more people spread out their players over multiple teams, making the second cutoff especially difficult. 

I've got Buffalo/Tampa Bay going so far and this, thinking that Baltimore beats both TEN and KC. Criticize away if you'd like. 

QB - Josh Allen - BUF - $40
QB - Tom Brady - TB - $28
RB - Ronald Jones - TB - $19
RB - J.K. Dobbins - BAL - $15
RB - Zack Moss - BUF - $13
WR - Stefon Diggs - BUF - $32
WR - Chris Godwin - TB - $20
WR - John Brown - BUF - $18
WR - Cole Beasley - BUF - $15
WR - Antonio Brown - TB - $15
WR - Marquez Callaway - NO - $5
WR - Miles Boykin - BAL - $3
WR - Dez Bryant - BAL - $3
PK - Tyler Bass - BUF - $14
PK - Ryan Succop - TB - $10

Nice set up if it is Buf-TB. But that’s what you have to do: pick a SB matchup and go for it. Including enough others to get through the rounds. I’m currently working on a KC-Sea entry. 
 

My only comments for your roster are (1) I’d reconsider the 3rd BAL player as not sure what that gives you even if they do win the 2 games. I’d look for a cheap player on the team you think TB would play in NFC CC. (2) I’ve never been big fan of kickers, but fine grab 1, though is there another good TB or Buf position player in lieu of the 2nd K. (I didn’t check)

Good luck! 

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Current version. comments welcome  

QB - Patrick Mahomes - KC - $39
QB - Russell Wilson - SEA - $25
QB - Baker Mayfield - CLE - $13
RB - Carlos Hyde - SEA - $4
RB - Darrel Williams - KC - $4
WR - Tyreek Hill - KC - $29
WR - DK Metcalf - SEA - $20
WR - Tyler Lockett - SEA - $16
WR - Gabriel Davis - BUF - $14
WR - Diontae Johnson - PIT - $14
WR - A.J. Brown - TEN - $13
WR - Jarvis Landry - CLE - $8
TE - Travis Kelce - KC - $34
TE - Jonnu Smith - TEN - $7
TE - Will Dissly - SEA - $4
PK - Jason Myers - SEA - $6

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8 minutes ago, Shaunz33 said:

Nice set up if it is Buf-TB. But that’s what you have to do: pick a SB matchup and go for it. Including enough others to get through the rounds. I’m currently working on a KC-Sea entry. 
 

My only comments for your roster are (1) I’d reconsider the 3rd BAL player as not sure what that gives you even if they do win the 2 games. I’d look for a cheap player on the team you think TB would play in NFC CC. (2) I’ve never been big fan of kickers, but fine grab 1, though is there another good TB or Buf position player in lieu of the 2nd K. (I didn’t check)

Good luck! 

Thanks for the constructive feedback! I had very similar thoughts in construction of the team but wasn't thinking NFC CC. I think that's a great idea. I think I'll put Isaiah McKenzie in there in lieu of Succop, who I don't think is that great of a kicker anyway and might leave points on the board. 

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Here's mine.  Hoping for Bills-Packers (which should have been the matchup for Super Bowl 1 but it didn't turn out that way unfortunately).

QB - Josh Allen - BUF - $40
QB - Aaron Rodgers - GB - $36
QB - Lamar Jackson - BAL - $28
QB - Ben Roethlisberger - PIT - $22
RB - Aaron Jones - GB - $25
RB - Zack Moss - BUF - $13
RB - A.J. Dillon - GB - $6
WR - John Brown - BUF - $18
WR - Cole Beasley - BUF - $15
WR - Allen Lazard - GB - $13
WR - Marquez Valdes-Scantling - GB - $11
WR - Equanimeous St. Brown - GB - $4
TE - Robert Tonyan - GB - $19

Total value: 250

Good luck to all!  And thanks to FBG for doing this!

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6 hours ago, Shaunz33 said:

Current version. comments welcome  

QB - Patrick Mahomes - KC - $39
QB - Russell Wilson - SEA - $25
QB - Baker Mayfield - CLE - $13
RB - Carlos Hyde - SEA - $4
RB - Darrel Williams - KC - $4
WR - Tyreek Hill - KC - $29
WR - DK Metcalf - SEA - $20
WR - Tyler Lockett - SEA - $16
WR - Gabriel Davis - BUF - $14
WR - Diontae Johnson - PIT - $14
WR - A.J. Brown - TEN - $13
WR - Jarvis Landry - CLE - $8
TE - Travis Kelce - KC - $34
TE - Jonnu Smith - TEN - $7
TE - Will Dissly - SEA - $4
PK - Jason Myers - SEA - $6

KC = $106
SEA = $75
CLE = $21
TEN = $20
BUF = $14
PIT = $14

The only thing that stood out to me, besides knowing your SB guess, is that your only NFC players come from 1 team.  Was that done on purpose?

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2 hours ago, TheWinz said:

KC = $106
SEA = $75
CLE = $21
TEN = $20
BUF = $14
PIT = $14

The only thing that stood out to me, besides knowing your SB guess, is that your only NFC players come from 1 team.  Was that done on purpose?

Good eye. It was on purpose but still not sure that is a good plan. Wanting more than 4 total in CC but thinking 5-6 is enough (vs 8 max possible). So I was hedging on afc side and with cheap choices. But some flaws in who I selected so far. 

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Of the 49 different SB combos, you could roster all players for 31 of the combos:
WAS vs CLE = $118
CHI vs CLE = $119
WAS vs IND = $119
CHI vs IND = $120
WAS vs TEN = $133
CLE vs LAR = $134
CHI vs TEN = $134
IND vs LAR = $135
LAR vs TEN = $149
WAS vs PIT = $159
CHI vs PIT = $160
WAS vs BAL = $164
CHI vs BAL = $165
LAR vs PIT = $175
LAR vs BAL = $180
CLE vs SEA = $181
IND vs SEA = $182
TEN vs SEA = $196
PIT vs SEA = $222
CLE vs TB = $224
IND vs TB = $225
BAL vs SEA = $227
WAS vs KC = $235
CHI vs KC = $236
CLE vs NO = $238
IND vs NO = $239
TEN vs TB = $239
WAS vs BUF = $248
CHI vs BUF = $249
CLE vs GB = $249
IND vs GB = $250

I was considering rostering all the players from IND, CLE, CHI, and WAS and hoping for a miracle.  I would even have $12 to spare.

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50 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

Of the 49 different SB combos, you could roster all players for 31 of the combos:
 

I was considering rostering all the players from IND, CLE, CHI, and WAS and hoping for a miracle.  I would even have $12 to spare.

For that plan to succeed, you need two miracles and two upsets the first week and then two miracles the second week. Sounds like a great plan. I would do it, but be sure to spend the other $12 on something much more likely, say the Rams new QB Wolford.

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17 hours ago, Shaunz33 said:

Current version. comments welcome  

QB - Patrick Mahomes - KC - $39
QB - Russell Wilson - SEA - $25
QB - Baker Mayfield - CLE - $13
RB - Carlos Hyde - SEA - $4
RB - Darrel Williams - KC - $4
WR - Tyreek Hill - KC - $29
WR - DK Metcalf - SEA - $20
WR - Tyler Lockett - SEA - $16
WR - Gabriel Davis - BUF - $14
WR - Diontae Johnson - PIT - $14
WR - A.J. Brown - TEN - $13
WR - Jarvis Landry - CLE - $8
TE - Travis Kelce - KC - $34
TE - Jonnu Smith - TEN - $7
TE - Will Dissly - SEA - $4
PK - Jason Myers - SEA - $6

I would not have money on Pittsburgh and Cleveland. You are guaranteeing some dead money week 2.

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33 minutes ago, QuizGuy66 said:

Okay 2nd attempt.

QB - $8 - 1

RB - $42 - 11

WR - $81 - 20

TE - $53 - 15

PK - $38 - 8

DEF - $28 - 7

-QG

Are you saying you have 62 players? I'm not sure I follow your format here, lol...

 

yes, you are saying that. You simply took all the cheapest players. gotcha...Very funny...I'm assuming you won't keep it, but it would be fun to see how that lineup fared...

Edited by Solomon Grundy
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This year is different having the #2 seeds playing but if there are less than 4000 teams again like last year then that won't make a difference.  This contest is next to impossible to know how to attack it because you have no idea how many teams are entering.  It be great if there was a way for us to know how many teams entered.

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2 hours ago, Dez said:

This year is different having the #2 seeds playing but if there are less than 4000 teams again like last year then that won't make a difference.  This contest is next to impossible to know how to attack it because you have no idea how many teams are entering.  It be great if there was a way for us to know how many teams entered.

I don't understand this comment at all. Unless you are picking the Super Bowl to be KCC vs. GBP, you have to take a bunch of dudes playing in the first week (since your SB team will be one of them at least). If you were thinking of taking ONLY KCC and GBP (which is pretty much the only reason you would want to know if you got a week 1 BYE because there aren't enough players), you won't even make it out of week 2. This year's playoff format, with only 2 teams on a BYE week 1, essentially means the following:

You still need to guess which 6 teams are going to week 2 and pick players from those teams so that you make it out of week 2.

You still need to field 4-6 players from one or both of your SB teams playing in round 1.

As there always is, there will be a large number of teams that do two things: take too few players from their SB teams and skew the week 1 cutoff UP a little, and teams that score no points at all in week one (i.e. KCC & GBP players only), pushing the cutoff down.

I think one thing I can say with absolute 100% certainty: the different NFL playoff format this year, combined with the pricing FBG has for the players in the pool, essentially forces you to completely ignore players from teams you think will lose in week 1, regardless of whether nor not the first week is a freebie.

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3 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

As there always is, there will be a large number of teams that do two things: take too few players from their SB teams and skew the week 1 cutoff UP a little, and teams that score no points at all in week one (i.e. KCC & GBP players only), pushing the cutoff down.

And this is the rub I was talking about before. You don't know which way that's going to tilt so you have no way of knowing how many guys to have on your Super Bowl teams. So it might even be an innocent thing where you're covered in the SB but thought you needed other guys around the league to get past the first few weeks. Plus, the guys that score points in Week Two while their teams are losing also throw a wrench in the works. They still count for that week's cutoff, they're just dead going forward and on advancing but ultimately dead teams. 

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Just now, rockaction said:

And this is the rub I was talking about before. You don't know which way that's going to tilt so you have no way of knowing how many guys to have on your Super Bowl teams. So it might even be an innocent thing where you're covered in the SB but thought you needed other guys around the league to get past the first few weeks. Plus, the guys that score points in Week Two while their teams are losing also throw a wrench in the works. They still count for that week's cutoff, they're just dead going forward and on advancing but ultimately dead teams. 

I guess what I don't understand is why having a free week in week 1 makes this an issue. I don't think it changes your strategy at all.

If what you're asking is if there are 10,000 entrants then you REALLY need to score to escape week 1, but if there are only 3,500 entrants you don't even need to worry about week 1. I think the safe answer is that the latter (3,500 entrants) is more likely than the former (10,000 entrants) and build your lineup accordingly.

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3 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

I guess what I don't understand is why having a free week in week 1 makes this an issue. I don't think it changes your strategy at all.

If what you're asking is if there are 10,000 entrants then you REALLY need to score to escape week 1, but if there are only 3,500 entrants you don't even need to worry about week 1. I think the safe answer is that the latter (3,500 entrants) is more likely than the former (10,000 entrants) and build your lineup accordingly.

Oh, yeah, I wasn't disagreeing with you. I was just adding to your secondary point.

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Clipped this from a post from last year from TheWinz. Anybody know how many entries into the subscriber contest this year? 

 

2019 - 12583 regular season entries vs 3057 post season entries (24%) - 4 Jan was first WC game
2018 - 15080 regular season entries vs 6782 post season entries (45%) - 5 Jan was first WC game
2017 - 13484 regular season entries vs 6679 post season entries (50%) - 6 Jan was first WC game
2016 - 14869 regular season entries vs 6284 post season entries (42%) - 7 Jan was first WC game
2015 - 13634 regular season entries vs 5522 post season entries (41%) - 9 Jan was first WC game
2014 - 14270 regular season entries vs 4706 post season entries (33%) - 3 Jan was first WC game
2013 - 14393 regular season entries vs 4146 post season entries (29%) - 4 Jan was first WC game
2012 - 13293 regular season entries vs 5005 post season entries (38%) - 5 Jan was first WC game
2011 - 10753 regular season entries vs 5915 post season entries (55%) - 7 Jan was first WC game
2010 - 13038 regular season entries vs 6896 post season entries (53%) - 8 Jan was first WC game
2009 - 13250 regular season entries vs 8884 post season entries (67%) - 9 Jan was first WC game

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10 minutes ago, steeler6 said:

Clipped this from a post from last year from TheWinz. Anybody know how many entries into the subscriber contest this year? 

 

2019 - 12583 regular season entries vs 3057 post season entries (24%) - 4 Jan was first WC game
2018 - 15080 regular season entries vs 6782 post season entries (45%) - 5 Jan was first WC game
2017 - 13484 regular season entries vs 6679 post season entries (50%) - 6 Jan was first WC game
2016 - 14869 regular season entries vs 6284 post season entries (42%) - 7 Jan was first WC game
2015 - 13634 regular season entries vs 5522 post season entries (41%) - 9 Jan was first WC game
2014 - 14270 regular season entries vs 4706 post season entries (33%) - 3 Jan was first WC game
2013 - 14393 regular season entries vs 4146 post season entries (29%) - 4 Jan was first WC game
2012 - 13293 regular season entries vs 5005 post season entries (38%) - 5 Jan was first WC game
2011 - 10753 regular season entries vs 5915 post season entries (55%) - 7 Jan was first WC game
2010 - 13038 regular season entries vs 6896 post season entries (53%) - 8 Jan was first WC game
2009 - 13250 regular season entries vs 8884 post season entries (67%) - 9 Jan was first WC game

I am seeing 10,226 for the 2020 regular season contest. FWIW

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5 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

I think my point holds given the data: You can safely assume that if you put together any kind of legit roster, you'll escape week 1 without question. I would build my roster based on the assumption you will make it out of week 1 no matter what you do.

I am attempting to push the limits of this with regards to week 1. Without *completely* assuming I make it.

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Wow this is hardcore this year.  Really tough.

Though maybe I'll just turn around and grab all of the Chicago, Washington, Cleveland, and Indianapolis players and then snag someone else for $12 ;)

Kidding aside right now rocking a rooster with 14 players :unsure:

-QG

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I think that this year, the second third and fifth seeds are all closer to the one seeds than normal. I see upsets more likely next week than normal.

very difficult contest, same as always. Congrats to @David Dodds in particular for the challenging prices.

There is definitely a chance for nobody to be eliminated in the first week, but just not sure that planning for that circumstance is an advantage.

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57 minutes ago, Stephen Holloway said:

I think that this year, the second third and fifth seeds are all closer to the one seeds than normal. I see upsets more likely next week than normal.

very difficult contest, same as always. Congrats to @David Dodds in particular for the challenging prices.

There is definitely a chance for nobody to be eliminated in the first week, but just not sure that planning for that circumstance is an advantage.

It is. *If* it works out that way. Playoff contests are all plant-your-flag. Go with what you think will happen. If you're wrong you lose. But if you're right and you didn't plan for being right, then you really lose.

Plan as though you will be right. Assume it will go the way you think it will. Otherwise I have no idea what anybody would choose as a strategy. Let an app pick it I guess.

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I don't know.  This is so top-heavy it's hard to put together a roster I really like AND get as many of my SB prediction in play.  With 20 minutes left, this is my entry.  Best of luck to everyone in!

QB - Josh Allen - BUF - $40
QB - Aaron Rodgers - GB - $36
RB - Aaron Jones - GB - $25
RB - Gus Edwards - BAL - $8
WR - Davante Adams - GB - $36
WR - Stefon Diggs - BUF - $32
WR - John Brown - BUF - $18
WR - Cole Beasley - BUF - $15
WR - James Washington - PIT - $5
WR - Miles Boykin - BAL - $3
TE - Robert Tonyan - GB - $19
PK - Jason Myers - SEA - $6
TD - Pittsburgh Steelers - PIT - $7

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I finished in the money for the first time last year winning $50 but this contest is not very fun at all.  Last year you pretty much had to go all KC and SF players because less than 4,000 people played so you take a 0 week 1 and still advance.  Meanwhile everyone else who went with any teams that played wild card week last year were basically done because KC and SF made it and you were just wasting your money.  You didn't know that is how it would play out but with Mostert and Mahomes having monster playoff games those 2 guys alone pushed you into the SuperBowl.

I wish this contest was played differently really hate the rules.  Just zero fun and a lot of people don't even understand how to enter a lineup.  You can't spread yourself over a bunch of teams and so many people do this.  Yes you have a higher chance to advance to the final 1000 people but you will never have a chance to win.

Last year I went almost all KC and SF players only and still didn't win it.  Every year is different though.

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Can't even pick the Tennessee kicker Gostkowski isn't even on the board for some reason.  Same for Goff not that I would have taken him.  Still that said they should been available.

Also pricing isn't very good on the lesser players somehow McKinzie is same price as Allen Robinson that makes sense...........

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clicked some buttons and whatever

QB - Patrick Mahomes - KC - $39
QB - Drew Brees - NO - $30
RB - Alvin Kamara - NO - $28
RB - J.K. Dobbins - BAL - $15
RB - Darrel Williams - KC - $4
WR - Stefon Diggs - BUF - $32
WR - Tyreek Hill - KC - $29
WR - Diontae Johnson - PIT - $14
WR - David Moore - SEA - $6
WR - TreQuan Smith - NO - $4
TE - Mark Andrews - BAL - $19
TE - Rob Gronkowski - TB - $14
TE - Dawson Knox - BUF - $12
TE - Marcedes Lewis - GB - $3

Total value: 249

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QB - Josh Allen - BUF - $40
QB - Aaron Rodgers - GB - $36
RB - Alvin Kamara - NO - $28
RB - Aaron Jones - GB - $25
RB - Zack Moss - BUF - $13
RB - A.J. Dillon - GB - $6
WR - Davante Adams - GB - $36
WR - Stefon Diggs - BUF - $32
TE - Travis Kelce - KC - $34

 

9 Players $250... obviously only works if GB/BUF is the Super Bowl, and Kamara and Kelce blow up weeks 2 and 3 to help keep me alive.

[edit] - Swapped Singletary for Moss on BUF, and M Lewis for Dillon on GB

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12 minutes ago, Dez said:

Can't even pick the Tennessee kicker Gostkowski isn't even on the board for some reason.  Same for Goff not that I would have taken him.  Still that said they should been available.

Also pricing isn't very good on the lesser players somehow McKinzie is same price as Allen Robinson that makes sense...........

I mean, it depends on what your strategy is but I didn't take any players on teams I don't expect to be playing in the AFC/NFC Championship... I have Bills in Super Bowl so considered McKenzie... but I wouldn't have taken Robinson unless he was maybe around $3 or less since I don't expect the Bears to survive past week 1, and surviving week 1 shouldn't be difficult.

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