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Synthesizer said:
Quickly glanced at the top 20 scoring entries for the week.  0 have any chance of winning this contest.  Still don't like the contest rules.
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I have always considered it part of the unique challenge of the contest tbh.  Those entries are like sandtraps on the golf course.  

By the way for the curious there were a total of 29 entries that went full GB/KC apparently.  A reminder that strategies a little more prevalent on the thread aren't representative of the contest as a whole ;)

-QG

 
This was my first try at this and I had no idea what I was doing.  Oof...barely scraped by with 2 points to spare.....and that's with my Bills players, one of my projected SB teams.  Eeek.  I'm guessing the people at the bottom did not expect there to be more than 4000 teams as many only picked KC & GB players.  Looking at the top entries, they all have players from every team and so will be losing players each week....maybe they expected they could pile up enough points (they do have 3x as me) in the first week that they could hold on from there with just a couple of SB players?

Dunno, I'm not sure of the strategy for this yet.  I went for mostly SB players plus 3 others to get me through the first week, which worked.....barely.  Not looking good for next week.

 
QuizGuy66 said:
I have always considered it part of the unique challenge of the contest tbh.  Those entries are like sandtraps on the golf course.  

By the way for the curious there were a total of 29 entries that went full GB/KC apparently.  A reminder that strategies a little more prevalent on the thread aren't representative of the contest as a whole ;)

-QG
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It was actually 28 teams, because 1 entry took Corey Davis also, and he got nada.

 
dbc925 said:
The goal is not to win week 1.  As long as the rules are spelled out at the beginning, and everyone plays by the same rules, it's fair to all.
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Yes the rules are fair because they are the rules.  IMO the contest would be more enjoyable for everyone if the rules were improved.

 
I will admit bias towards these rules ever since I came thisclose to getting a lockout win one year (stupid Baltimore and SF) met in the Super Bowl one year too late :(

-QG

 
This entry is interesting....all spread out among teams, except no Chiefs or Packers!

This entry is still alive. 18 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Philip Rivers $12 27.35 Jonathan Taylor $11 15.40 Stefon Diggs $32 24.80 Tyler Bass $14 13.00 J.K. Dobbins $15 10.20 Justin Tucker $8 10.40 Derrick Henry $16 6.60 A.J. Brown $13 20.30 Baker Mayfield $13 31.45 Nick Chubb $13 22.50 Chris Boswell $6 6.90 Pittsburgh Steelers $7 0.00 Cooper Kupp $8 11.80 Jason Myers $6 12.20 Seattle Seahawks $6 3.00 Tampa Bay Buccaneers $10 4.00 J.D. McKissic $6 8.30 Logan Thomas $7 14.90 David Montgomery $9 3.10 Allen Robinson $10 11.50 Alvin Kamara $28 18.60 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL 276.30 CUTOFF 105.70

 
There are definitely significant entries that do not understand the rules. The 29 that attempted to project the number of team entries got burned because for some reason the entry numbers jumped up from last year.

I personally love the rules as they remain similar to how they have always been and there are a lot of folks that do not understand them. That gives the knowledgeable an advantage. Unfortunately for the 29 that did not hedge their bet with a few first week players, they too are out.

Good luck to the survivors!

 
Stephen Holloway said:
There are definitely significant entries that do not understand the rules. The 29 that attempted to project the number of team entries got burned because for some reason the entry numbers jumped up from last year.

I personally love the rules as they remain similar to how they have always been and there are a lot of folks that do not understand them. That gives the knowledgeable an advantage. Unfortunately for the 29 that did not hedge their bet with a few first week players, they too are out.

Good luck to the survivors!
Click to expand...
FTR, you needed more than a few 1st week players, as proven by more than 2k entries that got booted with 1st week players.  Just ask this guy  https://subscribers.footballguys.com/playoffcontest/2020/101883.php  who spent $228 on 1st week players.

 
Haven't calculated how 62-player guy would do :)   techincally I'd have to pick a random $8 and random $7 guy - I would for arguments sake take the first non-injured of each (taking Alex Smith would be no fun)

-QG

 
TheWinz said:
FTR, you needed more than a few 1st week players, as proven by more than 2k entries that got booted with 1st week players.  Just ask this guy  https://subscribers.footballguys.com/playoffcontest/2020/101883.php  who spent $228 on 1st week players.
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that entry was a viable and reasonable entry that somewhat focused on Bills and Saints players. A heartbreaking entry that almost survived to round two, but did not. You have to choose the right hedges.

 
I’m still alive but think that I probably spread myself too thin. I lost quite a few guys and only have 10 moving forward (assuming Moss is indeed done).

The number of entries combined with only 1 team having a bye this week in each division I think made things tough/interesting. 

I think if either of the #1 seeds make the Super Bowl, you’ll probably see a bunch of players from the other team, the QB from the #1 seed, and whichever low priced guy that scores some points in the SB for the #1 seed. No real way to have stacks for both teams if one or both #1 seeds make it IMO.

In retrospect, wish I had gambled on Cleveland winning instead of splitting the baby and rostering both Landry and Claypool+McDonald. That Claypool+McDonald money could have been valuable in adding another Buffalo player to my stack and gambling on them.

If anyone gambled on investing heavily in one of GB, NO, or TB plus Baltimore, they could find themselves in the driver’s seat pretty easily.

 
I went heavy on a Saints Bills Super Bowl and also included Lamar Jackson, Andrews and Rams DST, only 11 players total. It possibly hurt my chances that the Steelers lost as that sent the Ravens to Buffalo. So, now if the best that I can hope for is Rams DST with a win over the Packers, the Saints and either Baltimore or Buffalo.

 
I was Mr. 4000 with 105.7 points. I lost Wilson, Snell, and Ebron next week but gaining the Green Bay players.  Still will only have 2 GB, 2 Buffalo, and Michael Thomas scoring in week 2.  Needed more hedge

 
This entry is still alive (108.45 points, 105.70 cutoff)

Josh Allen $40
Zack Moss $13
Stefon Diggs $32
Dawson Knox $12
Tyler Bass $14
Buffalo Bills $11

Drew Brees $30
Alvin Kamara $28
Michael Thomas $23
TreQuan Smith $4
Jared Cook $15
Wil Lutz $11
New Orleans Saints $11

 
Bills-Packers Super Bowl. I made the cut but will not survive the next round. 

This entry is still alive.

Josh Allen $40 39.60

Devin Singletary $16 5.90

Zack Moss $13 6.70

Stefon Diggs $32 24.80

John Brown $18 0.00

A.J. Brown $13 20.30

DK Metcalf $20 26.60

Aaron Rodgers $36 0.00

Aaron Jones $25 0.00

Davante Adams $36 0.00 

 
Synthesizer said:
Yes the rules are fair because they are the rules.  IMO the contest would be more enjoyable for everyone if the rules were improved.
Click to expand...
What's not enjoyable about a set of rules that 2/3s of the participants don't understand and you do?  I wish they would do something similar with the main contest such that 2/3s of the entires are DOA.

 
Not knowing how many people are in the contest is why this contest is not fun.  Last year you had to go all SF and KC otherwise you were toast because not even 4,000 teams were in.

This year 6,000+ decided to play and a lot of them went with 2-3 players from like 8 different teams................

Scoring 315 pts in the 1st round doesn't help you win the contest.  It just helps keep real teams out of the contest that know how to actually play the game.

Entry 102100

This entry is still alive. 18 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jonathan Taylor $11 15.40 Nyheim Hines $7 8.80 Mo Alie-Cox $3 9.20 Lamar Jackson $28 27.55 Marquise Brown $13 19.80 Derrick Henry $16 6.60 A.J. Brown $13 20.30 Baker Mayfield $13 31.45 Kareem Hunt $8 18.60 David Njoku $2 2.20 Diontae Johnson $14 22.70 Chase Claypool $12 22.90 Cam Akers $8 24.60 Gerald Everett $4 0.00 Russell Wilson $25 24.70 DK Metcalf $20 26.60 Antonio Gibson $8 4.50 J.D. McKissic $6 8.30 Terry McLaurin $8 13.50 Mitchell Trubisky $11 16.95 Anthony Miller $2 4.40 Taysom Hill $13 2.00 Marquez Callaway $5 0.00 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL 315.55 CUTOFF 105.70

 
Dez said:
Not knowing how many people are in the contest is why this contest is not fun.  Last year you had to go all SF and KC otherwise you were toast because not even 4,000 teams were in.

This year 6,000+ decided to play and a lot of them went with 2-3 players from like 8 different teams................

Scoring 315 pts in the 1st round doesn't help you win the contest.  It just helps keep real teams out of the contest that know how to actually play the game.

Entry 102100

This entry is still alive. 18 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jonathan Taylor $11 15.40 Nyheim Hines $7 8.80 Mo Alie-Cox $3 9.20 Lamar Jackson $28 27.55 Marquise Brown $13 19.80 Derrick Henry $16 6.60 A.J. Brown $13 20.30 Baker Mayfield $13 31.45 Kareem Hunt $8 18.60 David Njoku $2 2.20 Diontae Johnson $14 22.70 Chase Claypool $12 22.90 Cam Akers $8 24.60 Gerald Everett $4 0.00 Russell Wilson $25 24.70 DK Metcalf $20 26.60 Antonio Gibson $8 4.50 J.D. McKissic $6 8.30 Terry McLaurin $8 13.50 Mitchell Trubisky $11 16.95 Anthony Miller $2 4.40 Taysom Hill $13 2.00 Marquez Callaway $5 0.00 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL 315.55 CUTOFF 105.70
Click to expand...
Actually you can get a pretty good idea about the number of people who will play based on where the contest falls in January

 
Just a little more history about this playoff contest.  As far as I can remember, the top 12 teams are the prize winners.  Let's check out those 12th place teams (data available back 11 years):

2019 - $216 spent on 2 SB teams (weekly cuts were 0, 105, 81) - scored 160 in SB
2018 - $139 spent on 2 SB teams (weekly cuts were 79, 126, 74) - scored 79 in SB
2017 - $114 spent on 2 SB teams (weekly cuts were 84, 138, 59) - scored 166 in SB
2016 - $150 spent on 2 SB teams (weekly cuts were 91, 145, 132) - scored 146 in SB
2015 - $82 spent on 2 SB teams (weekly cuts were 66, 128, 65) - scored 65 in SB
2014 - $192 spent on 2 SB teams (weekly cuts were 50, 138, 83) - scored 153 in SB
2013 - $165 spent on 2 SB teams (weekly cuts were 46, 125, 102) - scored 138 in SB
2012 - $101 spent on 2 SB teams (weekly cuts were 65, 186, 71) - scored 113 in SB
2011 - $177 spent on 2 SB teams (weekly cuts were 88, 180, 66) - scored 125 in SB
2010 - $126 spent on 2 SB teams (weekly cuts were 92, 119, 52) - scored 145 in SB
2009 - $121 spent on 2 SB teams (weekly cuts were 128, 117, 77) - scored 111 in SB

 
Another tidbit worth mentioning - if you want to guarantee your entry will not make it to the finals, just finish at the top in week 1.  No entry has ever been #1 in week 1 and made it to the big show.

 
Dez said:
Not knowing how many people are in the contest is why this contest is not fun.  Last year you had to go all SF and KC otherwise you were toast because not even 4,000 teams were in.

This year 6,000+ decided to play and a lot of them went with 2-3 players from like 8 different teams................

Scoring 315 pts in the 1st round doesn't help you win the contest.  It just helps keep real teams out of the contest that know how to actually play the game.
Click to expand...
Apparently not making it to the end is not knowing how to play the game.

 
I truly didn't think the extra two games in the first round were going to make that much of a difference, but they obviously did. It was kinda a perfect storm of crazy different pricing of the elite-level guys (from my perspective, they are priced REALLY high compared to 2nd tier guys), the extra two games, and the higher participation rate. I think the roster that wins this year will have a surprisingly low number of SB players rostered.

 
Solomon Grundy said:
I truly didn't think the extra two games in the first round were going to make that much of a difference, but they obviously did. It was kinda a perfect storm of crazy different pricing of the elite-level guys (from my perspective, they are priced REALLY high compared to 2nd tier guys), the extra two games, and the higher participation rate. I think the roster that wins this year will have a surprisingly low number of SB players rostered.
Click to expand...
Depends on which 2 teams make it to the SB.  If it's a BUF/NO finals, the number will be high.

 
Solomon Grundy said:
I truly didn't think the extra two games in the first round were going to make that much of a difference, but they obviously did. It was kinda a perfect storm of crazy different pricing of the elite-level guys (from my perspective, they are priced REALLY high compared to 2nd tier guys), the extra two games, and the higher participation rate. I think the roster that wins this year will have a surprisingly low number of SB players rostered.
Click to expand...
More entries mean more chances a super roster gets through - just might be someone who used a couple Browns when most didn't.  I think a big factor this year is that most of the games are higher scoring too.

-QG

 
QuizGuy66 said:
More entries mean more chances a super roster gets through - just might be someone who used a couple Browns when most didn't.  I think a big factor this year is that most of the games are higher scoring too.

-QG
Click to expand...
CLE (9 players for $65) vs TB (11 players for $159) = $224

Dunno if any of the 6K entries went max on CLE/TB, but rostering just Mayfield/Hooper and Brady/Fournette would've gotten you to week 2.

 
I tried a no 1 seed strategy to make it to SB. But I think I stacked too much, and I may fall short, even if I picked both SB teams

Singletary $16; Davis $14

Lamar $28

Dobbins $15

Brown $13

Snead $6

Andrews $19

Tucker $8

BALT $3

Brees $30

Kamara $28

Thomas $23

Callaway $5

Cook $15

Lutz $11

NO $1

I was counting on Bills meeting Ravens meeting in AFC championship, now I'll have to rely on 6 players this week and only 4 for the championship week, assuming I even make it (which looks unlikely).  Based on what I've seen, I'd be in great shape for BAL-NO SB though. Looking back, I'd replace Cook and Lutz for a chiefs player

 
TheWinz said:
CLE (9 players for $65) vs TB (11 players for $159) = $224

Dunno if any of the 6K entries went max on CLE/TB, but rostering just Mayfield/Hooper and Brady/Fournette would've gotten you to week 2.
Click to expand...
oh I am not even saying they would have to do that - a BUF/GB entry that maybe snagged Mayfield and Hooper cheap might get enough side points to sneak through and get $200 of players in the final.

-QG

 
I went with a No v KC matchup.. with Pitt players to get me through thinking I would get two weeks at least, lol

did make it through but now its all KC and NO only....

 
Ugh need to survive with just my 2 best Bills and 2 best Packers now that Watkins has been declared out.

Not good.

-QG

 
zed2283 said:
Apparently not making it to the end is not knowing how to play the game.
Click to expand...
This is totally inaccurate. Many teams will make it to the SB and have absolutely a zero % of winning. I did that the first year I played. I was so stoked to make it through the first 3 rounds, and was completely deflated when I saw my 4 guys were up against about 100 teams ALL with more players from the two SB teams...

This contest is a lot like a No Limit Hold 'Em tournament. If you play super conservative and get past the first break, you'll likely get booted by the blinds because you didn't take chances to build a big enough stack. Similarly, in this contest you have to plant your flag and go in big on the two teams you think will make it to the super bowl, and then squeak by the first few rounds. The ONLY time I saw this not work 100% was the LAR - NEP superbowl that ended 10-7, lol. And even then the majority of the teams that cashed went big on those two teams.

Having an idea of how many teams enter would help you narrow down your roster choices, but wouldn't ultimately help you win if you got the two SB teams wrong. 

 
Solomon Grundy said:
This is totally inaccurate. Many teams will make it to the SB and have absolutely a zero % of winning. I did that the first year I played. I was so stoked to make it through the first 3 rounds, and was completely deflated when I saw my 4 guys were up against about 100 teams ALL with more players from the two SB teams...

This contest is a lot like a No Limit Hold 'Em tournament. If you play super conservative and get past the first break, you'll likely get booted by the blinds because you didn't take chances to build a big enough stack. Similarly, in this contest you have to plant your flag and go in big on the two teams you think will make it to the super bowl, and then squeak by the first few rounds. The ONLY time I saw this not work 100% was the LAR - NEP superbowl that ended 10-7, lol. And even then the majority of the teams that cashed went big on those two teams.

Having an idea of how many teams enter would help you narrow down your roster choices, but wouldn't ultimately help you win if you got the two SB teams wrong. 
Click to expand...
You are correct.  So then maybe I didn't understand your original point.  The only way to win is to squeak through to the end.  So if you score 315 points and knock people out, they didn't play it right.  Just like the rest of fantasy football, it takes a lot of luck to win.

 
In the clubhouse at 95.3.  Need the other two games to be like 3-0 probably :scared:

If somehow some way I squeak through I do at least have my 2 Super Bowl teams alive.  But I am quite sure the lack of supporting cast players is gonna doom me.

-QG

 
Quizomatic Scoring - any errors mine:

L Jackson 10.5

Edwards 4.2

Dobbins 10.8

M Brown 12.7

Andrews 8.8

Snead 7.5

Boykin 5.0

Tucker 3.4

Ravens D 2.0

J Allen 16.6

Singletary 5.2

Diggs 24.6

J Brown 14.2

Knox 4.8

McKenzie 2.8

Bass 5.0

Bills D 12.0

Akers 16.1

Reynolds 9.5

Woods 12.8

V Jefferson 16.6

Higbee 3.5

Gay 4.7

Rams D 0.0

Rodgers 32.5

A Jones 17.8

J Williams 6.5

A Dillon 2.7

A Lazard 19.6

D Adams 21.6

R Tonyan 12.0

Valdes-Scantling 7.3

E St Brown 3.7

Crosby 8.9

Packers D 4.0

Theoretical max (note - without thinking about the salary cap totals at all):  151.5

-QG

 
Quizzomatic Wk 2 - Day 2

Mahomes 26.2

Kelce 28.9

Williams 11.4

Ty Hill 19.9

Bell 0.6

Haridman 10.2

Robinson 2.4

Butker 12.3

KC D 5.0

Mayfield 15.5

Chubb 8.3

Hunt 9.4

Higgins 13.8

Njoku 11.9

Landry 15.0

Hooper 4.6

Parkey 6.6

Clev D 3.0

Brady 28.1

Fournette 19.2

R Jones II 6.2

Brate 11.0

Godwin 7.4

Miller 3.9

Gronkowski 2.9

A Brown 2.0

M Evans 7.3

Succop 13.3

TB D 8.0

Brees 10.0

Kamara 12.0

T Smith 23.5

Sanders 10.8

Cook 10.3

Lutz 9.2

NO D 1.0

While I think the cut won't be as high as some recent years I'm quite confident that my 95.3 is doomed.  Pretty upset that I jumped off considering Trequan - I shoulda know :(

Good luck all :)

-QG

 
nightmare said:
Bills-Packers Super Bowl. I made the cut but will not survive the next round. 

This entry is still alive.

Josh Allen $40 39.60

Devin Singletary $16 5.90

Zack Moss $13 6.70

Stefon Diggs $32 24.80

John Brown $18 0.00

A.J. Brown $13 20.30

DK Metcalf $20 26.60

Aaron Rodgers $36 0.00

Aaron Jones $25 0.00

Davante Adams $36 0.00 
Click to expand...
95.30 out of 4 guys for this week. If it's a Bills/Packers Super Bowl I will

be happy and bummed. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I spent $250 on KC/GB and got booted as soon as there was a cut week 1.  Even if I had advanced, I still woulda been 3 points short in week 2:

Mahomes + Kelce = 55.05
Rodgers + Adams = 54.10
Total = 109.15

 
112.15

Missed the cutoff by 7 again despite being on the right Super Bowl teams.  Who would have thought Tampa's top three WRs would top out at 7.4.

Finding a team that has a chance to place is like finding a needle in the haystack.  Amazing how many people fail to read the rules.

 
TheWinz said:
I spent $250 on KC/GB and got booted as soon as there was a cut week 1.  Even if I had advanced, I still woulda been 3 points short in week 2:

Mahomes + Kelce = 55.05
Rodgers + Adams = 54.10
Total = 109.15
Click to expand...
Amazing the cut was 115 with all the low scoring games.

 
Didn't make it.  Ultimately bet on the wrong suppoting players.  Think the amount I put on Buf/GB was sound.  Them's the breaks.  Always love this challenge.

-QG

 
I made the cut with no problems.  Only loss so far was a throwaway $3 on Dez Bryant.  I still have the following guys:

Bills: Allen, Moss, Diggs, John Brown

Chiefs: Hill

Packers: Rodgers, Adams

Bucs: Brady, Godwin

I may have a chance to make the Super Bowl, but then the glitter turns to dust. I would need the Bills to win in a defensive battle with the NFC team unable to muster much offense.

 
Didn't make it and have a BUF/TB Super Bowl. Missed by 12 points, which is significant, but weird when you've picked the right two teams so far (and had Van Jefferson at $2 adding 16.60 to the mix). Sheesh.

I guess having the TB receivers and no Fournette really hurt. I wasn't aware RoJo was hurt, or I would have spent the money elsewhere, probably on Leonard. Dang.

 
I guessed correctly on the 4 remaining teams, found a cheat code and rostered 36 players for $477, and still got booted!

BUF
QB - Josh Allen - BUF - $40 = 16.60
RB - Devin Singletary - BUF - $16 = 5.20
RB - Zack Moss - BUF - $13 = 0.00
WR - Stefon Diggs - BUF - $32 = 24.60
WR - John Brown - BUF - $18 = 14.20
WR - Cole Beasley - BUF - $15 = 0.00
WR - Gabriel Davis - BUF - $14 = 0.00
WR - Isaiah McKenzie - BUF - $10 = 2.80
TE - Dawson Knox - BUF - $12 = 4.80
PK - Tyler Bass - BUF - $14 = 5.00
TD - Buffalo Bills - BUF - $11 = 12.00

GB
RB - Aaron Jones - GB - $25 = 17.80
RB - Jamal Williams - GB - $12 = 6.50
RB - AJ Dillon - GB - $6 = 2.70
WR - Marquez Valdes-Scantling - GB - $11 = 7.30
WR - Equanimeous St. Brown - GB - $4 = 3.70
TE - Robert Tonyan - GB - $19 = 12.00
TE - Marcedes Lewis - GB - $3 = 0.00
TE - Jace Sternberger - GB - $2 = 0.00
PK - Mason Crosby - GB - $9 = 8.90
TD - Green Bay Packers - GB - $8 = 4.00

KC
RB - Clyde Edwards-Helaire - KC - $17 = 0.00
RB - LeVeon Bell - KC - $9 = 0.60
RB - Darrel Williams - KC - $4 = 11.40
WR - Sammy Watkins - KC - $12 = 0.00
WR - Mecole Hardman - KC - $11 = 10.20
WR - Demarcus Robinson - KC - $8 = 2.40
PK - Harrison Butker - KC - $10 = 12.30
TD - Kansas City Chiefs - KC - $9 = 5.00

TB
RB - Ronald Jones - TB - $19 = 6.20
WR - Mike Evans - TB - $20 = 7.30
WR - Chris Godwin - TB - $20 = 7.40
WR - Antonio Brown - TB - $15 = 2.00
WR - Scotty Miller - TB - $5 = 3.90
TE - Rob Gronkowski - TB - $14 = 2.90
TD - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - TB - $10 = 8.00

Total - 110.10
Cutoff - 112.15

The cheat code allowed me to enter another team, but would only allow me to spend $37 on 7 players.

CLE
WR - Rashard Higgins - CLE - $6 = 13.80
TE - David Njoku - CLE - $2 = 11.90

KC
RB - Darrel Williams - KC - $4 = 11.40

LAR
RB - Cam Akers - LAR - $8 = 16.10
WR - Van Jefferson - LAR - $2 = 16.60

NO
WR - TreQuan Smith - NO - $4 = 23.50

TB
RB - Leonard Fournette - TB - $11 - 19.20

Total - 112.50
Cutoff - 112.15

 
And I forgot the rules again. You only get two from each team counting towards your total, which I hadn't remembered until the Winz posted his post.

Grbble. Rbble. ####in'. Stupid. 

 
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