Would You Rather? (Dynasty PPR Soph. vs. Rookie) (1 Viewer)

Sophomore vs. Rookie.  Which of these would you rather have on your dynasty team?  Let's do an end-of-season price check against the incoming rookie class.  Would you rather have the bird in hand or roll the dice on the undetermined value of the rookie?

Go!

Tee Higgins or JaMarr Chase?
Michael Pittman, Jr. or DeVonta Smith?
AJ Dillon or Najee Harris?
Cam Akers or Travis Etienne?

BONUS:
Jalen Reagor or Rondale Moore?
Denzel Mims or Rashod Bateman?
Zack Moss or Javonte Williams?
Ke’Shawn Vaughn or Kenneth Gainwell?
Tua Tagovailoa or Justin Fields?

Feel free to add your own or debate these.

Keep these coming. Most are very good and tough choices.
 

Chase

smith 

Harris

Akers

Reagor

Batemon

Williams

Gainwell

Fields

Actually maybe Tua but tough call

Why compare the second (or third) tier of 2020 rookies to the first tier of 2021 rookies. You'd get more interesting answers pitting top talents to top talents.

Catbird said:

Why compare the second (or third) tier of 2020 rookies to the first tier of 2021 rookies. You'd get more interesting answers pitting top talents to top talents.

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I considered that.  In fact, in an earlier poll, I included Trevor Lawrence vs. Justin Herbert.  It wasn't particularly close.  It would be difficult to take a rookie, most destination unknown and all unproven at the NFL level, over a proven commodity.  I figured the polls would be skewed heavily in favor of the Sophomore player.  Jefferson vs Chase?  Lamb vs. DeVonta Smith?  Jonathan Taylor vs. (insert any rookie back)?  Swift vs. Etienne?  I fear we would not have learned anything from those polls this early.  After the NFL Draft, I may introduce those polls, however.

I did consider James Robinson vs. Najee Harris for this poll, and that would have made for a good debate, but I was curious how highly Dillon is being regarded after his recent breakout game.  Judging by early polling, most dynasty leaguers are still concerned enough about what his role will be going forward to take him ahead of an intriguing prospect who should be drafted as a RB1.  Not especially surprising, but if Aaron Jones signs elsewhere, I wonder what this same poll would look like.

I think Gibson vs Najee would have been close, but it was an interesting thought on Dillon. 

IHEARTFF said:

I think Gibson vs Najee would have been close, but it was an interesting thought on Dillon. 

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Yes, that probably would have been a better comparison.  I initially had Antonio Gibson vs. Travis Etienne and James Robinson vs. Najee Harris.  I feared those both would have ended much like the Trevor Lawrence vs. Justin Herbert poll, but it still could have sparked some nice debate.

socrates said:

Yes, that probably would have been a better comparison.  I initially had Antonio Gibson vs. Travis Etienne and James Robinson vs. Najee Harris.  I feared those both would have ended much like the Trevor Lawrence vs. Justin Herbert poll, but it still could have sparked some nice debate.

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Yeah those are close calls

IHEARTFF said:

Yeah those are close calls

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I ultimately settled on Cam Akers rather than Antonio Gibson vs. Travis Etienne, in part because while Akers struggled early, he had a nice late-season surge.  I believe Akers could have a year-two ascension similar to David Montgomery.  Gibson's dynasty value seems more deeply rooted, if that makes sense.

Another couple that I'm on the opposite side than the majority. I'll take Higgins > Chase and Akers > Etienne

Higgins > Chase is a very tough call for me, I have them ranked back to back in dynasty (both in my top10 WR's). Chase could leapfrog him with a landing spot and elite draft capital. I suspect that's the more controversial one though because I think I was the highest on Higgins on this board. I do have some questions about Chase right now, but he's a Tier1 prospect for me, as was Higgins last year. The tie goes to the one who's produced and is paired well with a QB of the future (so it seems). 

Akers > Etienne isn't even a choice for me. Akers has a workhorse profile, proved it, and is now looking better and better in the playoffs to ascend his value even more. Etienne is slightly on the smaller side, and doesn't profile as easily as Akers did. Akers is actually younger. But again we're on another guy I was very high on in Akers that I'd much prefer that one in the hand. 

Most of these questions come down to how I had them as prospects since it's a limited sample of their rookie years. We've seen the upside of Taylor, so he's easier to say no doubt him > all other prospects in 2021. Probably the same with Jefferson, Lamb, and Swift as well I imagine. All others are kind of up for grabs of if you'd take them vs a top incoming rookie. In that way I feel it comes down to prospect profile and those are the ones I'm placing bets on. 

So I'm the AJ Dillon voter.  I just think he's in a better situation than where Harris ends up.  

Akers is looking at top 12 in redrafts next year.  Kid is impressive.  

Higgins will be tied to Burrow's recovery, but I like the system he's in.

Is anyone else of the opinion that elite talent is coming into the league faster than it’s leaving it?

Zyphros said:

Another couple that I'm on the opposite side than the majority. I'll take Higgins > Chase and Akers > Etienne

Higgins > Chase is a very tough call for me, I have them ranked back to back in dynasty (both in my top10 WR's). Chase could leapfrog him with a landing spot and elite draft capital. I suspect that's the more controversial one though because I think I was the highest on Higgins on this board. I do have some questions about Chase right now, but he's a Tier1 prospect for me, as was Higgins last year. The tie goes to the one who's produced and is paired well with a QB of the future (so it seems). 

Akers > Etienne isn't even a choice for me. Akers has a workhorse profile, proved it, and is now looking better and better in the playoffs to ascend his value even more. Etienne is slightly on the smaller side, and doesn't profile as easily as Akers did. Akers is actually younger. But again we're on another guy I was very high on in Akers that I'd much prefer that one in the hand. 

Most of these questions come down to how I had them as prospects since it's a limited sample of their rookie years. We've seen the upside of Taylor, so he's easier to say no doubt him > all other prospects in 2021. Probably the same with Jefferson, Lamb, and Swift as well I imagine. All others are kind of up for grabs of if you'd take them vs a top incoming rookie. In that way I feel it comes down to prospect profile and those are the ones I'm placing bets on. 

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Tee Higgins or JaMarr Chase? As much s I love Higgins' situation, the talent gap, to my untrained eyes, is significant enough for me to favor the upside of JaMarr Chase.
Michael Pittman, Jr. or DeVonta Smith?  This is extremely close for me.  If I were ranking Smith among the 2020 WR class, he would be ahead of Pittman, but only a tier above.  Pittman plays is a very good offense, and although he is losing his QB (presumably), that might be a positive for Pittman.
AJ Dillon or Najee Harris?  If I was confident Aaron Jones was departing Green Bay, I would have this much closer, but Harris is #1 on my rookie draft board, so I have to favor him.
Cam Akers or Travis Etienne?  I agree with @Zyphros @IHEARTFF @FairWarning on Akers over Etienne, and I have Etienne top 3 on my rookie board.  Depending on which team Etienne is drafted to, I may swap that, but for now, I would choose Akers.  He is a starter in a good offense, he is a 3-down back, and I think he is very possibly a fantasy RB1 next season. 

BONUS:
Jalen Reagor or Rondale Moore?  I am not especially excited about the Philly offense, and I have Moore as a first-round rookie fantasy pick.  Would I trade Reagor for a 2021 1st?  In a heartbeat.
Denzel Mims or Rashod Bateman?  I suspect Fields will be under center for the Jets next season, but whether it is Fields or Darnold, Mims has some intriguing upside.  Still, this is the Jets we are talking about.  I will apply the same reasoning above:  If I could move Mims for a late first/early second, how fast would I smash the accept button?
Zack Moss or Javonte Williams?  Ok, this one is not especially close for me, but if Moss emerges as the top back for the Bills, he could become a RB1.  Moss has not yet convinced me he will emerge, and I love Williams' upside.  Williams may wind up #1 on many draft boards before it is all said and done.
Ke’Shawn Vaughn or Kenneth Gainwell?  I have not yet written off Vaughn, but unless there are some changes to the depth chart in Tampa, his value is limited.
Tua Tagovailoa or Justin Fields?  This one is a toss-up for me.  Tua looked good in stretches, but he also looked like a rookie at times.  For me, the difference is Miami vs. NY Jets.

I agree with @Zyphros regarding the top tier of 2020 rookies.  Give me J. Taylor, D. Swift, J. Jefferson or C. Lamb (and perhaps Aiyuk) over any of this next crop of rookies.  That could change after April, I suppose, but likely not until I have at least seen some NFL game film on the rookies.  

Hoh said:

Is anyone else of the opinion that elite talent is coming into the league faster than it’s leaving it?

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It seems like it, but I suppose there are always a number of players we think will be elite talent who flame out, and a gradual decline of those who were once elite to the point their disappearance is barely noticed.