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[Dynasty] 2021 NFL Draft Class


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15 hours ago, tangfoot said:

Ahead of the NFL draft, this is looking like the worst top of a draft class since 2019.  I'm pretty sure that 2021 is the only draft that Mizelle has archived without a rookie in the top 24.  This year, the highest rookie is currently at #25 overall and only 3 in the top 36.

You can look to NFL draft capital to change this in the coming months, but I think we are all going to be largely disappointed with both the depth and breadth of this class in 2-3 years.

http://mizelle.net/mfl/2021/

I do think on the whole it's a weak class. But I would still like to mention two things on that data.

One is in actual FFPC startup drafts I am seeing Najee and Etienne in top 24.

But the other point I'd make about why things seem especially off this year is accounting for last years class. The 2020 class stocked up so much young talent it's kind of pushing everything back, I think that list you posted had 7 from last year in top 20 alone.

But again to your point I this class does not seem good and my takes on each position:

QB's-really strong so strength of this class for fantasy purposes is maybe a little different in one QB leagues vs SF leagues but I only play in the former and they barely register, good chance no first round QB's in those leagues and frankly I can't remember the last QB to go in round one of those leagues.

RB- weak at the top when I consider my #1 guy right now is 23 and I might not get any test results on him. Top 3 on the whole seem worse then most years top 3 and the 4+ much worse then most years.

WR-deep with solid players but everyone keeps telling me how great this draft is for WR's and I see mainly an army of slot WR's and potential WR2's.  On the whole a solid WR class but I think the fantasy impact will be way less then people think.

TE- You got probably the best prospect ever and then TE's 2+ stack up as worst in memory vs other TE classes.

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This is where I am before we enter the meat of silly season: I think there are 13 great bets to be starters in our game Lawrence, Wilson, Fields Etienne, Harris, Williams Chase, Wa

Strategic bump so that this article is near the top of a fresh page - dominator rating & breakout age are useful variables to consider when you are looking at NFL rookies for fantasy football purp

I get a kick out of amateur sports writers trying to use fancy words. You're looking to use "innate" here, chief.

Jamaar Chase seems to be agreed as being in a tier above the top 3 RBs, or at least close to it. If he is the one real top heavy example in this draft, even he isn't going in the top 24. In FFPC startups he is going as WR8 at #30. Worth noting WRs are arguably being pushed down this year as part of a larger trend. As Meno alluded to above, the quality of the 2020 class is changing the FF landscape. *Has changed* it, past tense, IMO. 

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1 hour ago, menobrown said:

QB's-really strong so strength of this class for fantasy purposes is maybe a little different in one QB leagues vs SF leagues but I only play in the former and they barely register, good chance no first round QB's in those leagues and frankly I can't remember the last QB to go in round one of those leagues.

I'm not convinced this class is really that strong.  After Lawrence, everyone else in the top 5 is a giant red flag for me.  I don't want any of them at their price in SF leagues, and I don't have the firepower to trade up to 1.01 to get Trevor.

I would not be surprised if we think the entire lot of guys after him are all trash in 2-3 years.

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1 hour ago, joey said:

I lost track of which RB this set of posts was referring to...Gainwell?

Yes.

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51 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

I'm not convinced this class is really that strong.  After Lawrence, everyone else in the top 5 is a giant red flag for me.  I don't want any of them at their price in SF leagues, and I don't have the firepower to trade up to 1.01 to get Trevor.

I would not be surprised if we think the entire lot of guys after him are all trash in 2-3 years.

I think the athletic traits most of the top Qb's in this draft posses is going to make a few of them fantasy studs once they get the reigns.  Lawrence is assured of seeing the field faster then Lance or Fields and that's for sure a big issue for me but I think once they take the field they will actually be better then Lawrence for fantasy, thought maybe without the anticipated longevity.  I"ll be more or less definitive with this opinion when I know landing spots.

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1 hour ago, menobrown said:

I think the athletic traits most of the top Qb's in this draft posses is going to make a few of them fantasy studs once they get the reigns.  Lawrence is assured of seeing the field faster then Lance or Fields and that's for sure a big issue for me but I think once they take the field they will actually be better then Lawrence for fantasy, thought maybe without the anticipated longevity.  I"ll be more or less definitive with this opinion when I know landing spots.

I think you're right that Lance & Fields will be better than people think in fantasy terms.

But an underrated part of Lawrence's game is his mobility. He's a better passer than Cam Newton but might be nearly as good of a runner (not that I'd want him running around like Cam).

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Seems like all the NFL mock drafters are pretty much in unison that 4 pass catchers are going top 12. Are we really sure of that? Seems like Smith, Waddle and even Chase have pretty solid questions around them. Plus the WR supply is so deep right now. If I am an NFL team, QB, OT, Edge and probably CB are much higher priorities for me. 

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42 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Seems like all the NFL mock drafters are pretty much in unison that 4 pass catchers are going top 12. Are we really sure of that? Seems like Smith, Waddle and even Chase have pretty solid questions around them. Plus the WR supply is so deep right now. If I am an NFL team, QB, OT, Edge and probably CB are much higher priorities for me. 

Pitts and Chase are almost locks to go in the top 12, but I agree with you that the WR supply is very deep.  It would not shock me if Waddle and Smith both go that high, but I think we could see one or both slip out of the first 12 picks.

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21 minutes ago, socrates said:

Pitts and Chase are almost locks to go in the top 12, but I agree with you that the WR supply is very deep.  It would not shock me if Waddle and Smith both go that high, but I think we could see one or both slip out of the first 12 picks.

Yep, I just can't believe Smith and Waddle are being projected ahead of say Slater for example. 

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7 hours ago, menobrown said:

But again to your point I this class does not seem good and my takes on each position:

QB's-really strong so strength of this class for fantasy purposes is maybe a little different in one QB leagues vs SF leagues but I only play in the former and they barely register, good chance no first round QB's in those leagues and frankly I can't remember the last QB to go in round one of those leagues.

RB- weak at the top when I consider my #1 guy right now is 23 and I might not get any test results on him. Top 3 on the whole seem worse then most years top 3 and the 4+ much worse then most years.

WR-deep with solid players but everyone keeps telling me how great this draft is for WR's and I see mainly an army of slot WR's and potential WR2's.  On the whole a solid WR class but I think the fantasy impact will be way less then people think.

TE- You got probably the best prospect ever and then TE's 2+ stack up as worst in memory vs other TE classes.

I agree with almost all of this analysis, especially the army of slot receivers at the WR position and Lance and Fields being much better fantasy football picks than Wilson on rushing potential alone.

I think the RBs might just surprise some people, though. It's been a weak class, and they all have warts, but some of the later picks like Sermon and Jefferson are better than, say, an Anthony McFarland, Zack Moss, or Ke'Shawn Vaughn from last year.

After the big five of Taylor, Swift, Akers, Dobbins, and maybe CEH, there wasn't much last year. A.J. Dillon, but he's buried. Then again, this year's "big five," so to speak, don't even look close to last year's.

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11 minutes ago, rockaction said:

After the big five of Taylor, Swift, Akers, Dobbins, and maybe CEH, there wasn't much last year. A.J. Dillon, but he's buried. Then again, this year's "big five," so to speak, don't even look close to last year's.

Antonio Gibson and James Robinson would like a word with you. 

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23 minutes ago, rockaction said:

 

After the big five of Taylor, Swift, Akers, Dobbins, and maybe CEH, there wasn't much last year. A.J. Dillon, but he's buried. Then again, this year's "big five," so to speak, don't even look close to last year's.

I don't know if the right term is recency bias but I think this is putting a lot more sheen on last year's guys than is really there.

Edited by Andy Dufresne
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4 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I don't know if the right term is recency bias but I think this is putting a lot more sheen on last year's guys than is really there.

How much less sheen do you think is deserved?  Six (with Gibson) are in the top-24 overall dynasty players in ADP, and Robinson is inexplicably number 37 overall. 

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1 minute ago, tangfoot said:

How much less sheen do you think is deserved?  Six (with Gibson) are in the top-24 overall dynasty players in ADP, and Robinson is inexplicably number 37 overall. 

Let me speak plainly - those rankings seem like crap.

The only guy that really proved anything was Taylor and even he may have to share some carries with Mack returning and Hines not going anywhere.

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14 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Let me speak plainly - those rankings seem like crap.

The only guy that really proved anything was Taylor and even he may have to share some carries with Mack returning and Hines not going anywhere.

Mack is never coming back from his Achilles. It just doesn’t happen for RBs. 
Robinson was by leaps and bounds the best rookie RB, and Gibson had 10 TDs before the high ankle sprain. 
Taylor and Akers had a couple stellar games to end the season and everyone went crazygonuts over them. I’m not going to say they are over rated but they still have to earn that ranking. 
I’ve divested of Dobbins and never had a CEH. Swift is on the Loins and is a permanent avoid. 

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6 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Mack is never coming back from his Achilles. It just doesn’t happen for RBs. 
Robinson was by leaps and bounds the best rookie RB, and Gibson had 10 TDs before the high ankle sprain. 
Taylor and Akers had a couple stellar games to end the season and everyone went crazygonuts over them. I’m not going to say they are over rated but they still have to earn that ranking. 
I’ve divested of Dobbins and never had a CEH. Swift is on the Loins and is a permanent avoid. 

I can't tell. Are you agreeing with me?

Anyway, the idea that this year's guys can't match last year's seems at least premature to me - it's certainly not definitive.

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2 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

Seems like all the NFL mock drafters are pretty much in unison that 4 pass catchers are going top 12. Are we really sure of that? Seems like Smith, Waddle and even Chase have pretty solid questions around them. Plus the WR supply is so deep right now. If I am an NFL team, QB, OT, Edge and probably CB are much higher priorities for me. 

Chase and Pitts should go top 10 and if there weren't so many QB's top 5. The Bama guys could be teen picks instead of top 12 guys, but I don't think it's so much because of them.

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2 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I don't know if the right term is recency bias but I think this is putting a lot more sheen on last year's guys than is really there.

Yeah, and I think comparing apples to apples is to compare each class at the same point in time.  

This time last year there was no James Robinson, and Gibson's thread in the Shark Pool was started on April 25th after he was drafted  His small vocal cult (charter member here) hadn't even made any Kool-Aid yet.  

The RB class last year looks better now, but it didn't then.  

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Matt Waldman, from the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, says this year's WR class is deeper than last year's but not as top-heavy or marquee as last year's class. He also wonders if the "glut" of WRs is real and if so, when we'll be seeing it. Just figured I'd pass that along.

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8 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Matt Waldman, from the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, says this year's WR class is deeper than last year's but not as top-heavy or marquee as last year's class. He also wonders if the "glut" of WRs is real and if so, when we'll be seeing it. Just figured I'd pass that along.

Was there a FBG divorce? RSP getting any hype this year.

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48 minutes ago, massraider said:

Was there a FBG divorce? RSP getting any hype this year.

I think Joe hyped it on Twitter, as did others. That's where the real action happens. It might be a little quiet around here about it, for sure, considering in past years it was front and center at times, although maybe I was just more dedicated in finding it than I originally thought. It's competition even if the proprietor works under the auspices of FBG. Matt Waldman lost the keys to his Twitter account in late March and was frantic to get his name back so that he could pump the RSP.

Oh, check the IDP Forum. I have a new post up that might be of interest in the MFL positional designations. Maybe not. But probably worth checking.

Edit: Do not check the IDP Forum. I done misread something.

Edited by rockaction
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1 hour ago, massraider said:

Was there a FBG divorce? RSP getting any hype this year.

It's just a dynasty wasteland in general at this place.  Great content in the forums and Hindrey's value guide is essential reading.  But beyond that?

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12 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

It's just a dynasty wasteland in general at this place.  Great content in the forums and Hindrey's value guide is essential reading.  But beyond that?

They're starting to incorporate more men and women into the fold that concentrate on dynasty. Their podcasts have been heavily dynasty-oriented recently (which makes sense given that it's that time of year). I'm not saying this by way of correction of your point, but I've noticed more content than in the past. I'd say I've been here and been a subscriber for about ten years. So that's what I picked up on this year. 

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6 hours ago, rockaction said:

Matt Waldman, from the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, says this year's WR class is deeper than last year's but not as top-heavy or marquee as last year's class. He also wonders if the "glut" of WRs is real and if so, when we'll be seeing it. Just figured I'd pass that along.

That is really hard to believe given what we saw last year. I am glad he said that though because I am also hearing a lot of people who are feeling a bit down on this class the last couple weeks. 

6 hours ago, massraider said:

Was there a FBG divorce? RSP getting any hype this year.

There was but not with Matt

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3 hours ago, The Tahitian Facemask said:

I don’t see Najee Harris here.

Good catch. I don't see him there, either. 

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3 hours ago, The Tahitian Facemask said:

I don’t see Najee Harris here.

The author had a note at the bottom saying that he expects Harris to announce his withdrawl from the NFL draft in the next week. He said Najee Harris is going to sign with NASA so he can become the first man to score a touchdown in space. 

Edited by Ilov80s
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