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[Dynasty] 2021 NFL Draft Class


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Heath Cummings @heathcummingssr

Hoping for Fantasy fireworks early tonight. Hard to imagine Javonte Williams makes it past 37 w/ Jets-Falcons-Dolphins lined up. VERY interested in landing spots for Rondale/Elijah Moore & Terrace Marshall. Trey Sermon & Dyami Brown could crack rookie top-12 w/ right landing spot

https://twitter.com/heathcummingssr/status/1388228826317066247?s=21

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Post	Player		Pos	Team	NFL#	Count	Avg	SD
1	Najee Harris	RB	Pit	24	22	1.65	0.67
2	Ja'Marr Chase	WR	Cin	5	22	1.85	0.88

3	Kyle Pitts	TE	Atl	4	22	3.70	1.34
4	Travis Etienne	RB	Jac	25	22	4.05	1.23

5	Jav. Williams	RB	Den	35	22	5.65	1.50
6	Jaylen Waddle	WR	Mia	6	22	5.90	1.33
7	Devonta Smith	WR	Phi	10	22	6.05	1.43

8	Rashod Bateman	WR	Bal	27	22	8.90	1.48
9	Trevor Lawrence	QB	Jac	1	22	9.60	1.98

10	Elijah Moore	WR	NYJ	34	22	11.65	2.37
11	Rondale Moore	WR	Ari	49	22	12.40	3.05
12	Ter. Marshall	WR	Car	59	22	13.05	3.20
13	Trey Lance	QB	SF	3	22	13.15	2.52

14	Justin Fields	QB	Chi	11	22	14.35	2.87
15	Trey Sermon	RB	SF	88	22	14.45	2.16
16	Kadarius Toney	WR	NYG	20	22	14.90	2.85

17	Michael Carter	RB	NYJ	107	22	16.50	3.68

18	Zach Wilson	QB	NYJ	2	22	19.50	3.20

19	Dyami Brown	WR	Was	82	22	21.35	2.87

20	K. Gainwell	RB	Phi	150	22	22.85	5.45
21	A. St. Brown	WR	Det	112	22	22.85	5.20
22	D, Eskridge	WR	Sea	56	22	23.50	4.33
23	Amari Rodgers	WR	GB	85	21	23.50	3.44

24	Pat Freiermuth	TE	Pit	55	22	24.85	3.92

25	Tylan Wallace	WR	Bal	131	22	26.80	5.87
26	Mac Jones	QB	NE	15	21	27.00	5.16
27	Chuba Hubbard	RB	Car	126	20	27.55	5.09
28	Nico Collins	WR	Hou	89	21	28.05	5.87

29	Tutu Atwell	WR	LAR	57	20	30.95	6.52
30	Josh Palmer	WR	LAC	77	14	31.60	8.31
31	R. Stevenson	RB	NE	120	18	32.60	5.49

32	A. Schwartz	WR	Cle	91	17	34.20	5.03

33	Elijah Mitchell	RB	SF	194	10	36.20	6.58
34	Jaelon Darden	WR	TB	129	14	36.60	4.75
35	D. Fitzpatrick	WR	Ten	109	10	36.85	5.00
36	Kylin Hill	RB	GB	256	13	37.05	4.80
37	Jer. Jefferson	RB	Det	257	10	37.10	5.34
38	Seth Williams	WR	Den	219	13	37.40	4.27
39	Brevin Jordan	TE	Hou	147	11	37.75	3.97
40	Tommy Tremble	TE	Car	83	8	38.55	3.62

Early consensus rankings - average and SD - max/min, from @Faust links and other sites.

 

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I can tell you now that the draft rankings by writers and the ones by players in the other thread of "post your rookie drafts" are very, very different. Sermon is 1.08-1.12 and in the rankings never tops the top twelve, other than Bloom's. A lot of the rankers and drafts are different. It would behoove people to check that thread if they want an idea of where players are really going. 

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41 minutes ago, woodstock said:

I can tell you now that the draft rankings by writers and the ones by players in the other thread of "post your rookie drafts" are very, very different. Sermon is 1.08-1.12 and in the rankings never tops the top twelve, other than Bloom's. A lot of the rankers and drafts are different. It would behoove people to check that thread if they want an idea of where players are really going. 

Exactly. RB-needy teams (me) might reach on a player like Sermon or Carter since there seem to be so many WRs with either questions or in the same big tier, so why go WR when you can likely get a similar WR later in the round or in the next round, and take the position-scarce RB early. 

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1 minute ago, joey said:

Exactly. RB-needy teams (me) might reach on a player like Sermon or Carter since there seem to be so many WRs with either questions or in the same big tier, so why go WR when you can likely get a similar WR later in the round or in the next round, and take the position-scarce RB early. 

And analysts would claim that given those backs' draft capital, long-term it's a bad reach for them. I see their point. But they're not playing with your team. They're usually analysts that have tons of teams and can be dispassionate about scoring in the long-run over a large range of outcomes with a bunch of squads. That's part of the reason why there's a disconnect there. 

It's interesting, the disconnect between people that have the teams and people that rank the players that way. It would seem to me that neither side is stupid, per se, as some analysts would make you feel, but that there really is a different set of circumstances for each selection made. 

That's surely a defense of somebody like myself, who might reach at RB, but when so many people are doing it (and I've looked at twelve or thirteen drafts and Sermon never leaves the top twelve) you have to wonder if it's a gigantic collective mistake, or whether there's a darn good reason for it that isn't quantifiable. 

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8 minutes ago, woodstock said:

And analysts would claim that given those backs' draft capital, long-term it's a bad reach for them. I see their point. But they're not playing with your team. They're usually analysts that have tons of teams and can be dispassionate about scoring in the long-run over a large range of outcomes with a bunch of squads. That's part of the reason why there's a disconnect there. 

It's interesting, the disconnect between people that have the teams and people that rank the players that way. It would seem to me that neither side is stupid, per se, as some analysts would make you feel, but that there really is a different set of circumstances for each selection made. 

That's surely a defense of somebody like myself, who might reach at RB, but when so many people are doing it (and I've looked at twelve or thirteen drafts and Sermon never leaves the top twelve) you have to wonder if it's a gigantic collective mistake, or whether there's a darn good reason for it that isn't quantifiable. 

Exactly. 
And in my specific circumstance, I am RB-needy, I hold the 1.6, 1.10 and 1.11 and 2.5 picks. So I read I "should" take one of Devonta or Waddle (even with questions around their size) at 6, assuming 3RB/Pitts/Chase go to 1-5.
But when I run the scenarios for MY TEAM (with Hill/Claypool/CDavis/Shenault/Pittman at WR), I can see myself missing out on BOTH Sermon and Carter between my 1.6 and 1.10 picks, so I’d rather grab a Sermon and hope Carter makes it to 1.10, and/or take the best of the remaining WR prospects, of which there seems to be a big old tier of similarly rated guys to chose from.  

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2 minutes ago, joey said:

Exactly. 
And in my specific circumstance, I am RB-needy, I hold the 1.6, 1.10 and 1.11 and 2.5 picks. So I read I "should" take one of Devonta or Waddle (even with questions around their size) at 6, assuming 3RB/Pitts/Chase go to 1-5.
But when I run the scenarios for MY TEAM (with Hill/Claypool/CDavis/Shenault/Pittman at WR), I can see myself missing out on BOTH Sermon and Carter between my 1.6 and 1.10 picks, so I’d rather grab a Sermon and hope Carter makes it to 1.10, and/or take the best of the remaining WR prospects, of which there seems to be a big old tier of similarly rated guys to chose from.  

Check that rookie draft thread and you'll get a better idea of where the guys are going. Even check the Superflex ones and discount the QBs. Get a raw count on the players and you'll have a better idea than most ADP or, especially, ranking sources will give you (depending on when your draft is, of course. Mine is soon and I can't wait for monthly ADPs to reflect the changes. There may be searchable ADP sources by date, I'm just not aware of them). I'm not sure what to tell you about your particular team or what a good analyst would say about your starting requirements and long-term success. I heard one analyst discounting Sermon because you might miss out on Elijah or Rondale Moore. 

#### that. That's what I say to that. 

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44 minutes ago, woodstock said:

Check that rookie draft thread and you'll get a better idea of where the guys are going. Even check the Superflex ones and discount the QBs. Get a raw count on the players and you'll have a better idea than most ADP or, especially, ranking sources will give you (depending on when your draft is, of course. Mine is soon and I can't wait for monthly ADPs to reflect the changes. There may be searchable ADP sources by date, I'm just not aware of them).

It used to be better (you could select draft date ranges and you'd see how many drafts participated) but you can get a somewhat time relevant ADP for dynasty rookie drafts at myfantasyleague.com.

You can't filter scoring beyond PPR/non-PPR or toggle SF/non-SF, but it's something. Looks like there's a lot of SF leagues drafting early. If you take out the QB's Sermon is going neck and neck with E. Moore at 1.09-1.10 in drafts conducted post-NFL Draft.

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5 minutes ago, Adso said:

It used to be better (you could select draft date ranges and you'd see how many drafts participated) but you can get a somewhat time relevant ADP for dynasty rookie drafts at myfantasyleague.com.

You can't filter scoring or SF/non-SF, but it's something. Looks like there's a lot of SF leagues drafting early. If you take out the QB's Sermon is going neck and neck with E. Moore at 1.09-1.10 in drafts conducted post-NFL Draft.

Wow. Thanks. Yep, that looks about right and about what I'm seeing in the mocks posted here, too. Looks like you need to have a first-round pick to grab him in 1 QB settings. Carter is a few spots below him, so beginning of the second, looks like. Draft capital be damned, it seems. 

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