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[Dynasty] 2021 NFL Draft Class


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This is where I am before we enter the meat of silly season: I think there are 13 great bets to be starters in our game Lawrence, Wilson, Fields Etienne, Harris, Williams Chase, Wa

Strategic bump so that this article is near the top of a fresh page - dominator rating & breakout age are useful variables to consider when you are looking at NFL rookies for fantasy football purp

I get a kick out of amateur sports writers trying to use fancy words. You're looking to use "innate" here, chief.

4 hours ago, Faust said:

This will remain a good debate for awhile.  Rondale Moore cannot seem to remain on the field for long, and while I think he is the most impressive of this group of wideouts vying for WR4, his size and injury history have to be considered marks against him.  Rashod Bateman lacks the exciting qualities of Moore, but he has a more well-rounded game.  The only other rookie receiver I am really considering for WR4, at this early stage, is Terrace Marshall.  Marshall has the size (6-3, 200) teams are seeking, good hands and route running, and he has the speed to beat defenders deep.

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12 minutes ago, Denver724 said:

I sure hope WR Moore doesn't go to the Ravens. Where WR go to die!

Agree, it's where WR's go to die but  Moore is probably safe, they are hunting for receiver help but they want one with good size.

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The way too early consensus rookie rankings, 1QB.  I throw out the max and min for average and standard deviation to minimize outlier effects.  I marked tiers with spaces.

Rnk	Player		Pos	School		Count	Avg	SD
1	Najee Harris	RB	Alabama		27	1.36	0.57

2	Ja'Marr Chase	WR	LSU		27	2.64	0.95
3	Travis Etienne	RB	Clemson		27	2.68	1.38

4	Devonta Smith	WR	Alabama		27	4.40	1.12

5	Jaylen Waddle	WR	Alabama		27	6.32	1.49
6	Kyle Pitts	TE	Florida		27	6.72	1.81
7	Jav. Williams	RB	North Carolina	26	7.13	2.86

8	Rashod Bateman	WR	Minnesota	27	8.20	2.47
9	Rondale Moore	WR	Purdue		27	8.84	3.42

10	Trevor Lawrence	QB	Clemson		27	10.56	2.42

11	Ter. Marshall	WR	LSU		27	12.04	2.96
12	Ken. Gainwell	RB	Memphis		27	12.80	3.44

13	A-R St. Brown	WR	USC		26	15.58	4.50
14	Justin Fields	QB	Ohio St		27	16.40	3.98
15	Kadarius Toney	WR	Florida		25	16.78	4.39
16	Elijah Moore	WR	Ole Miss	22	17.15	3.53
17	Michael Carter	RB	North Carolina	24	18.05	5.19
18	Chuba Hubbard	RB	Oklahoma St	27	18.12	5.47
19	Tylan Wallace	WR	Oklahoma St	27	18.60	3.83
20	Trey Sermon	RB	Ohio St		22	19.45	4.33
21	Dyami Brown	WR	North Carolina	22	20.35	3.73
22	Seth Williams	WR	Auburn		19	21.35	4.27

23	Pat Freiermuth	TE	Penn State	25	22.70	3.89
24	Zach Wilson	QB	BYU		26	23.29	4.82
25	Jer. Jefferson	RB	Oregon St	18	24.25	4.54
26	Brevin Jordan	TE	Miami		22	25.00	4.55
27	Trey Lance	QB	N. Dakota St	22	25.15	4.97
28	Rha. Stevenson	RB	Oklahoma	14	26.50	6.83

29	Javian Hawkins	RB	Louisville	15	28.69	3.92
30	Sage Surratt	WR	Wake Forest	15	28.85	6.38
33	Kylin Hill	RB	Mississippi St	21	29.21	7.40
31	Tam. Terry	WR	Florida St	16	29.57	4.77
35	Amari Rodgers	WR	Clemson		16	30.21	5.37
32	Tutu Atwell	WR	Louisville	14	30.25	6.27
34	Dazz Newsome	WR	North Carolina	11	30.56	6.58
36	Jaret Patterson	RB	Buffalo		14	31.83	5.17
37	Nico Collins	WR	Michigan	16	32.07	3.58
38	Demetric Felton	RB	UCLA		11	32.89	2.67
39	Mac Jones	QB	Alabama		15	34.00	4.58
40	Ant. Schwartz	WR	Auburn		8	34.67	3.78

 

Edited by miqws
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The way too early consensus superflex rookie rankings.  These are a lot harder to get decent numbers, but I have ways.  The max and min are excluded from the average and standard deviation.  I put spaces where it a tier made some sense (i.e. by eyeball test).

Rnk	Player		Pos	School		Count	Avg	SD
1	Trevor Lawrence	QB	Clemson		17	1.27	0.59

2	Najee Harris	RB	Alabama		17	3.00	0.93
3	Justin Fields	QB	Ohio St		17	3.33	1.40
4	Travis Etienne	RB	Clemson		17	4.07	1.53
5	Ja'Marr Chase	WR	LSU		17	4.33	1.45

6	Devonta Smith	WR	Alabama		17	7.07	1.62

7	Zach Wilson	QB	BYU		17	8.47	2.95
8	Trey Lance	QB	N. Dakota St	16	9.21	3.02
9	Kyle Pitts	TE	Florida		17	9.73	2.46
10	Jaylen Waddle	WR	Alabama		17	10.47	1.88
11	Rashod Bateman	WR	Minnesota	17	11.07	3.35
12	Jav. Williams	RB	North Carolina	14	11.17	2.76

13	Rondale Moore	WR	Purdue		16	14.36	4.43
14	Ken. Gainwell	RB	Memphis		14	15.08	3.23
15	Mac Jones	QB	Alabama		14	15.83	4.04
16	Ter. Marshall	WR	LSU		16	15.93	2.09
17	Chuba Hubbard	RB	Oklahoma St	15	16.54	4.50

18	Kyle Trask	QB	Florida		10	18.38	4.17

19	A-R St. Brown	WR	USC		14	19.92	4.23
20	Michael Carter	RB	North Carolina	11	20.33	3.39
21	Jer. Jefferson	RB	Oregon St	8	21.50	3.02
22	Elijah Moore	WR	Ole Miss	13	21.73	4.29
23	Tylan Wallace	WR	Oklahoma St	15	22.00	3.32
24	Zamir White	RB	Georgia		6	23.00	2.71
25	L. Rountree III	RB	Memphis		5	23.00	2.00
26	Trey Sermon	RB	Ohio St		14	23.17	5.97
27	Pat Freiermuth	TE	Penn State	15	23.92	4.54
28	Kadarius Toney	WR	Florida		13	24.82	5.47
29	Tam. Terry	WR	Florida St	9	25.86	3.63
30	Brevin Jordan	TE	Miami		16	26.50	5.59
31	Jaret Patterson	RB	Buffalo		8	26.67	3.08
32	Seth Williams	WR	Auburn		10	27.38	4.84
33	Dyami Brown	WR	North Carolina	11	27.56	4.93
34	Kylin Hill	RB	Mississippi St	14	27.75	3.11

35	Mar. Stevenson	WR	Houston		6	29.25	2.06
36	Nico Collins	WR	Michigan	5	30.00	1.00
37	Shi Smith	WR	South Carolina	5	30.33	4.16
38	D'W. Eskridge	WR	W. Michigan	6	31.25	7.27
39	Amari Rodgers	WR	Clemson		6	31.50	5.26
40	C.J. Verdell	RB	Oregon		5	32.67	3.79

 

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1 QB Rookie consensus - where they rank in dynasty.  The max and min are excluded for the average and standard deviation.

Rnk	Player		Pos	PosRnk	Count	Avg	SD
28	Najee Harris	RB	RB15	16	28.64	7.72
32	Travis Etienne	RB	RB17	16	33.14	9.66
38	Ja'Marr Chase	WR	WR16	16	37.64	5.61
46	Devonta Smith	WR	WR21	16	46.50	7.42
65	Kyle Pitts	TE	TE06	16	65.86	10.55
66	Jaylen Waddle	WR	WR32	16	66.00	12.12
74	Rashod Bateman	WR	WR35	16	78.00	28.40
75	Jav. Wiliams	RB	RB26	14	79.29	50.61
84	Rondale Moore	WR	WR40	16	86.43	26.34
85	Trevor Lawrence	QB	QB10	15	87.21	13.03
97	Ter. Marshall	WR	WR48	16	102.07	23.89
102	Chuba Hubbard	RB	RB32	16	107.14	9.37
108	Ken. Gainwell	RB	RB35	14	109.71	42.73
111	Justin Fields	QB	QB12	15	113.71	20.51
131	Michael Carter	RB	RB43	14	135.36	39.12
137	Zach Wilson	QB	QB18	15	141.64	20.47
140	Trey Sermon	RB	RB47	14	147.14	47.21
141	Kadarius Toney	WR	WR61	14	147.86	45.48
142	Elijah Moore	WR	WR62	14	147.93	41.09
145	A-R St. Brown	WR	WR64	15	149.07	41.20
148	Tylan Wallace	WR	WR66	15	150.50	38.88
156	Pat Freiermuth	TE	TE19	15	163.14	27.55
157	Brevin Jordan	TE	TE20	15	165.57	24.48
160	Trey Lance	QB	QB23	14	169.15	33.74
168	Seth Williams	WR	WR69	10	175.29	55.55
178	Kylin Hill	RB	RB57	13	184.29	35.16
188	Dyami Brown	WR	WR78	8	198.07	48.13
205	L. Rountree III	RB	RB68	8	210.86	39.69
210	Jer. Jefferson	RB	RB70	7	214.93	35.05
211	Javian Hawkins	RB	RB71	7	215.43	33.27
222	Mac Jones	QB	QB32	7	221.54	26.26
228	Nico Collins	WR	WR92	6	225.79	24.33

 

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And finally, consensus superflex rookies - where they rank in dynasty.   The max and min are excluded for the average and standard deviation.  

Rank	Player		PosRnk	Count	Avg	SD
26	Trevor Lawrence	QB09	12	30.50	6.72
39	Najee Harris	RB15	12	38.80	7.30
43	Travis Etienne	RB17	12	43.00	10.49
45	Justin Fields	QB12	12	45.40	10.67
50	Ja'Marr Chase	WR16	12	48.70	6.29
61	Devonta Smith	WR21	12	61.50	7.82
69	Zach Wilson	QB18	12	73.40	13.49
76	Trey Lance	QB20	12	77.00	15.73
80	Kyle Pitts	TE06	12	82.00	7.16
84	Jaylen Waddle	WR33	12	85.30	7.65
92	Rashod Bateman	WR37	12	95.20	28.88
101	Jav. Williams	RB28	10	103.80	51.37
105	Rondale Moore	WR42	12	107.40	25.52
115	Chuba Hubbard	RB32	12	119.40	20.79
116	Ken. Gainwell	RB33	11	120.20	20.27
121	Ter. Marshall 	WR50	12	123.00	20.76
131	Mac Jones	QB29	11	129.30	34.50
151	Michael Carter	RB45	10	156.60	36.53
164	Trey Sermon	RB49	10	166.10	38.06
165	Elijah Moore	WR63	10	166.40	37.90
166	Tylan Wallace	WR64	10	169.10	37.93
168	Pat Freiermuth	TE18	11	174.20	20.32
169	Kadarius Toney	WR66	10	174.70	33.09
173	A-R St. Brown	WR67	10	181.30	36.85
178	Kylin Hill	RB54	10	185.90	27.51
179	Brevin Jordan	TE21	10	187.10	29.75
186	Kyle Trask	QB37	8	192.20	38.83
204	Dyami Brown	WR79	7	210.40	34.89
211	L. Rountree III	RB65	6	213.60	33.82
212	Seth Williams	WR82	7	213.70	29.81
220	Jer. Jefferson	RB68	6	217.40	31.32
227	Amari Rodgers	WR87	4	222.30	36.01
228	Javian Hawkins	RB71	6	222.50	22.87
232	Shi Smith	WR90	5	224.10	22.49
234	Tam. Terry	WR91	4	224.20	31.63
236	Mar. Stevenson	WR92	5	227.40	19.32

 

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1 hour ago, Faust said:

PFF Draft @PFF_College
 

Leader in forced missed tackles per carry last season:

1. Javonte Williams, UNC: 0.48

2. Rhamondre Stevenson, OU: 0.36

https://twitter.com/pff_college/status/1365285487414452227?s=21

That is interesting, although not terribly surprising.  They are both punishing runners who shed arm tackles with ease and routinely power through defenders.  A slimmed-down Stevenson looks a bit similar to Javonte Williams, yet he is likely to be available much later.  Stevenson does not have quite the burst or contact balance, and he has not shown the receiving chops, but he might be considered "Javonte Williams lite", if you can describe anything about Rhamondre Stevenson as 'light'!

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