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If you're a real NFL GM, who would you rather have: Trevor Lawrence on a rookie deal or Deshaun Watson on his current deal?


If you're a real NFL GM, who would you rather have: Trevor Lawrence on a rookie deal or Deshaun Watson on his current deal?  

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Obviously a lot depends on the situation.  Are you a contender?.... Watson.   Are you a couple years away?.... Lawrence. Overall I go Lawrence.  Once in a generation type player, and that extra cap

1000000% Watson 

I went with Watson, but I think it's a close call.  We know with certainty that Watson is extremely good.  It would be nice to have an extremely good QB on a rookie contract, but there's no guarantee

I went with Watson, but I think it's a close call.  We know with certainty that Watson is extremely good.  It would be nice to have an extremely good QB on a rookie contract, but there's no guarantee that Lawrence will be as good as Watson (though it's pretty probable).

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I went Lawrence on rookie deal, though the cap seems really, um, maneuverable these days seeing what the Rams did with Goff, Donald, Ramsey, Woods, and Kupp. Errrybody getting paid there.

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I think Watson is great, but I would lean TL.  I'm hung up on the fact that everyone pooped on Trevor's perfomance against Ohio St. - a game in which he threw for 400 yards and 2 TDs. Probably the highest floor at QB since Andrew Luck.

Situation cannot be ignored.  I saw recent blurbs were Jerry Rice was strongly in favor of SF making a deal to acquire Watson, and in the instance of SF I would rather have Watson than Lawrence, easily; and in Jax's case, Trevor Lawrence is the no brainer choice.

ETA: The play calling by Clemson vs Ohio St. a couple of weeks ago was superbad.

Edited by Mister CIA
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Watson showed this year how great he is as an individual and how little that mattered to the number of games his team won.  Lawrence leaves the Jags with a huge war chest to build a team around him that might be able to win a lot of games, if not next year, then in the future as he matures.  Lawrence is the clear choice for a team which needs to be built from the ground up.

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Obviously a lot depends on the situation.  Are you a contender?.... Watson.   Are you a couple years away?.... Lawrence.

Overall I go Lawrence.  Once in a generation type player, and that extra cap room is MASSIVE.

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Situation means everything. Where is Watson playing? Also, what situation will Lawrence be playing under? A college coach with another college coach as his right hand man. Too many variables right now to be definitive. But all that aside, Watson seems to be the known commodity.

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yep...agree with basic sentiments expressed......need more info.

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Love Watson but went with Lawrence. Having a young, talented QB on a rookie contract can be a stepping stone to turning a franchise around. On the other hand having Watson can turn a good team into a Super Bowl contender. 

I don't think Watson is going anywhere so his career will be mostly "wasted" in Houston. 

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17 hours ago, Deamon said:

Obviously a lot depends on the situation.  Are you a contender?.... Watson.   Are you a couple years away?.... Lawrence.

Overall I go Lawrence.  Once in a generation type player, and that extra cap room is MASSIVE.

This.  

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18 hours ago, Joe Bryant said:

If you're a real NFL GM, who would you rather have: Trevor Lawrence on a rookie deal or Deshaun Watson on his current deal?

This is an excellent question and will open up an entire thread I wanted to do on the Rookie QB Playbook. 

To answer the question, Watson is a Top 3-5 level NFL QB who just racked up 88% of the entire Houston Texans offense, think about that, seriously that never happens and then you add in he lost Hopkins, I have always been a HUGE Watson fan since he came out of Clemson, I've believed in his talent and think it would be very hard to pass on Watson in any trade, guys like him are never available. 

If I had a team that was already talented in the front 7 or OL, etc...I would trade for Watson immediately and start building around him. You have to gamble that you can be a better front office and organization than what he feels has happened in Houston. I do feel like Watson somehow is not given the praise he deserves for whatever the reason and I would have felt betrayed to see Hopkins traded if I were him. 

Jags have very little time to prepare for Trevor, priority No 1 has to be to build the OL but since they hired Urban Meyer I can almost tell you how this story turns out and it won't be good. Worst hire they could have possible made, will set Lawrence back in the NFL. 

I'll take Watson and the tipping point is what other inferior QBs are getting paid around him. Watson is worth every penny and if Miami could pull one more coup on Houston and give them back a couple of those draft picks and send Watson back to us and ship Tua out of here quickly, life would be good in Miami for the next 10 years, the Drew Brees level QB we didn't get back in '06, 15 years later we right the ship by getting Watson? 

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If you're a real NFL GM, who would you rather have: Trevor Lawrence on a rookie deal or Deshaun Watson on his current deal?

Their is an NFL GM who has Deshaun Watson and he doesn't want to be in Houston and many teams would want Watson over an unproven rookie QB, even Trevor Lawrence so this should be reframed to ask what can Houston get for Deshaun Watson because many teams would want Watson and would pay a huge price.

The asking price is more than the opportunity to draft Trevor Lawrence so the starting point would be the top pick PLUS+++++??????

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19 minutes ago, Bracie Smathers said:

If you're a real NFL GM, who would you rather have: Trevor Lawrence on a rookie deal or Deshaun Watson on his current deal?

Their is an NFL GM who has Deshaun Watson and he doesn't want to be in Houston and many teams would want Watson over an unproven rookie QB, even Trevor Lawrence so this should be reframed to ask what can Houston get for Deshaun Watson because many teams would want Watson and would pay a huge price.

The asking price is more than the opportunity to draft Trevor Lawrence so the starting point would be the top pick PLUS+++++??????

If the Jets passed on Fields which is up in the air right now what the plan is there...if they passed and you are the Houston Texans(Personally I would never trade Watson) and you feel like you can't fix things with Watson then you have to make the call to Miami and see if they want to fast track their franchise into a deep playoff run. 

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I think a super interesting part of this discussion is the rookie deals.

Clearly, teams have shown they can make it work with expensive QBs. But a cheap (meaning young) QB opens up so many other things. 

I think the voting shows good thoughts on both sides. 

Also asked on Twitter with a poll. https://twitter.com/Football_Guys/status/1350892105099595778?s=20

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See i think it's Lawrence easily.  In a normal QB year its Watson but Lawrence has all the tools to be the next great QB.   Sure there is some risk in not taking the sure thing in Watson but I think Lawrence will end up having a better career than Watson so the fact you get Lawrence as a rookie as opposed to year 5 is just a bonus imo.  

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How many years is my GM contract guaranteed for?  If 3 years or less then Watson without question.  If 5 years or more than probably Lawrence.

The ONLY question that matters is how long is my own personal contract.  If you think the GM is concerned about the actual short term / long term for the sake of the franchise, you are assuming facts that are not in evidence.

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It's not a blind situation to answer.  It totally depends on the team's roster and situation.  If you have the team built and need a QB (Chicago, Washington, Miami, New England, Colts) I would prefer Watson and ita not close.  

 

If I needed a lot of help the rookie contract and potential is worth the fresh QB so I lean Lawrence.

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14 minutes ago, Fear The Turtle said:

Voted Watson for the surer thing but am second guessing myself. Supposedly, Watson got his feelings hurt by recent Houston management decisions. Who is to say that he won't have similar problems with some of my decisions down the road? Who needs it.

The hurt feelings are more about poor management for multiple years that took away his best weapon and didn't do anything to help the team improve over the course of his career.  That frustration finally boiled over and is understandable.  I am not saying I agree with his actions but they are understandable.

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Contract aside Watson to me is the first or second most valuable player in the NFL.

But in this situation we don't put contract aside but if Watson was traded without adjusting his contract it's not that bad since the Texans would have ate most of the bonus.

In 2021 it's really not that bad at all. If I slotted Trevor on Burrows salary last year then Watson's cap number next year would only be about $4M over TL's.

Over 2021-2024 seasons you would get TL for about $9M a year and Watson for $28.5.  Then the savings are not only over but Watson's 5th year option in 2025 likely exceeds Watsons $32M cap hit that season.

So long story short it's almost non-existent cap savings in 2021 but you got a 3 year window in 22-24 were you'd save about $25-26M a year in cap money. Is that worth giving up a young Watson for younger but unproven TL? I wish I had an answer but I really don't know. I do know this is easier for me to look at from Texans angle and that is with Watson's unhappiness and the team in bad cap shape and not looking overly competitive anytime soon I'd take Trevor,  just not sure if I'm the Jags.

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5 minutes ago, Gally said:

The hurt feelings are more about poor management for multiple years that took away his best weapon and didn't do anything to help the team improve over the course of his career.  That frustration finally boiled over and is understandable.  I am not saying I agree with his actions but they are understandable.

I actually don't think his feelings are hurt in the least  and I don't think the stance he is taking is about what just him but rather he's the voice for other Texans players who don't have the footing he has to voice their displeasure.

He end of season press conference he spoke of team needing a culture shift, a leader they could follow and adding that to many people think they have the "power" and the team needed someone to stand tall they could follow. It's easy now to understand what he was alluding to and I don't think those comments or his actions since are selfish or indicative or someone whose "feelings are hurt" but someone who truly had the best interest of the team and the organization.  Put another way I don't think Watson's actions over this past week has lessened him in the eyes of any NFL GM, HC or owner, outside of Houston that is.

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Just now, menobrown said:

I actually don't think his feelings are hurt in the least  and I don't think the stance he is taking is about what just him but rather he's the voice for other Texans players who don't have the footing he has to voice their displeasure.

He end of season press conference he spoke of team needing a culture shift, a leader they could follow and adding that to many people think they have the "power" and the team needed someone to stand tall they could follow. It's easy now to understand what he was alluding to and I don't think those comments or his actions since are selfish or indicative or someone whose "feelings are hurt" but someone who truly had the best interest of the team and the organization.  Put another way I don't think Watson's actions over this past week has lessened him in the eyes of any NFL GM, HC or owner, outside of Houston that is.

I agree.  Your description is more detailed.  My comment was using the terminology of the guy I quoted and that I didn't agree with it being an issue moving forward.

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Every year there are one or two QBs that some segment of the college fan base believes will become a stud.  How many highly touted college QBs actually become elite NFL QBs?  Is the hit rate even 50%?  I think not.  That's why Watson is the pick for me.

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4 minutes ago, Gally said:

I agree.  Your description is more detailed.  My comment was using the terminology of the guy I quoted and that I didn't agree with it being an issue moving forward.

Thanks and I did think that was the case.

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14 minutes ago, bumpman said:

Every year there are one or two QBs that some segment of the college fan base believes will become a stud.  How many highly touted college QBs actually become elite NFL QBs?  Is the hit rate even 50%?  I think not.  That's why Watson is the pick for me.

No there is not a QB prospect like Lawrence every year. He’s an every 10 year guy like Luck, Manning, etc 

Edited by Capella
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10 minutes ago, Capella said:

No every year there is not a QB prospect like Lawrence every year. He’s an every 10 year guy like Luck, Manning, etc 

The perception that there is a generational talent at QB coming into the draft is more common than you think.  

https://thespun.com/acc/clemson-tigers/mel-kiper-names-better-nfl-prospect-joe-burrow-or-trevor-lawrence

Last year Kiper thought Burrow was a better prospect than "generational" prospect, Trevor Lawrence.

 

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1 minute ago, bumpman said:

The perception that there is a generational talent at QB coming into the draft is more common than you think.  

https://thespun.com/acc/clemson-tigers/mel-kiper-names-better-nfl-prospect-joe-burrow-or-trevor-lawrence

Last year Kiper thought Burrows was a better prospect than "generational" prospect, Trevor Lawrence.

 

Well he’s wrong 

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14 minutes ago, Gally said:

I agree.  Your description is more detailed.  My comment was using the terminology of the guy I quoted and that I didn't agree with it being an issue moving forward.

I'm "the guy" and I admit my phrasing wasn't the best. In addition, I'm not saying that I wouldn't do the same things Watson has done/is doing regarding the situation if I were in his shoes. I'm just saying that, as a GM, that is one potential problem I would prefer not to deal with if I could help it. I understand that many others don't see it as a problem or risk. 

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31 minutes ago, bumpman said:

Every year there are one or two QBs that some segment of the college fan base believes will become a stud.  How many highly touted college QBs actually become elite NFL QBs?  Is the hit rate even 50%?  I think not.  That's why Watson is the pick for me.

No if we were talking Goff, Baker, Burrow and maybe even Murray I'd take the Watson side of this deal.  Lawrence has the potentially to be much better than any of those guys.  It's a risk but I think at his absolute worst Lawrence is Goff and that absolutely the worst case scenario imo.  His ceiling is much, much higher than that.

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For the record Watson is an elite, top-8 QB and if they both had rookie deals and he was happy in his city I would take him just because you already know he’s good. But if Houston got a call from Jax to trade their disgruntled qb away and in return they get Trevor Lawrence, yea, there aren’t going to be any sweeteners there. 

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7 hours ago, Capella said:

No way. The Texans would trip over themselves to get Lawrence for Watson. 

Maybe because their franchise is decimated, they might do it straight up to free up some $. But I don't think it is that easy, even as Lawrence is worth more than a typical 1.1. I think Watson is worth like 3 firsts + a 2021 2nd right this second. I would think Jax would have to pay Lawrence + something good like their 2022 1st to get Watson. 

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9 minutes ago, IHEARTFF said:

Maybe because their franchise is decimated, they might do it straight up to free up some $. But I don't think it is that easy, even as Lawrence is worth more than a typical 1.1. I think Watson is worth like 3 firsts + a 2021 2nd right this second. I would think Jax would have to pay Lawrence + something good like their 2022 1st to get Watson. 

I just don’t see it. I am extremely confident Lawrence would fetch the same exact price you just listed, probably even more because of his contract. 

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25 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

Leaf, Shuler, Manziel, Russell, Leinart, Vince Young, David Carr, Jeff George....need I go on? Why would anyone prefer ANY rookie over a proven young all pro QB?? 

None of which were as highly regarded coming out of college as Lawrence.  You get an additional 5 years of what some are calling the highest rated QB prospect since Elway/Andrew Luck.  I'll take the chance with Lawrence.  

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50 minutes ago, IHEARTFF said:

Maybe because their franchise is decimated, they might do it straight up to free up some $. But I don't think it is that easy, even as Lawrence is worth more than a typical 1.1. I think Watson is worth like 3 firsts + a 2021 2nd right this second. I would think Jax would have to pay Lawrence + something good like their 2022 1st to get Watson. 

Pretty certain Texans would be the ones kicking something in not the Jags.  Those 4 years at the rookie rate are worth so much more than people are giving it credit for. Especially if Lawrence is remotely productive, and he will be.  

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37 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

Leaf, Shuler, Manziel, Russell, Leinart, Vince Young, David Carr, Jeff George....need I go on? Why would anyone prefer ANY rookie over a proven young all pro QB?? 

None of these guys are even remotely close to the level of prospect Lawrence is. Elway, Manning, Luck and maybe somebody else I’m forgetting. That’s it. 

Edited by Capella
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1 hour ago, Capella said:

I just don’t see it. I am extremely confident Lawrence would fetch the same exact price you just listed, probably even more because of his contract. 

The difference is that Watson already is what they hope Lawrence becomes. 

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