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Dynasty & Redraft: QB Zach Wilson, Jets


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7 minutes ago, rockaction said:

I was talking about he and Pennington because Wilson has already had surgery on his throwing arm. That scares me right away. He seems to have a stronger arm now than Pennington might ever have had.

Simms' assessment takes a bit off of my mind, but it seems every talent evaluator on Twitter seems to think he's Baker Mayfield, tops. That worries me. Waldman thinks so, too. I'm glad Simms has a great track record and feels that way. Let's see if the proof is in the pudding.

I'm a Dolphin fan, so I have mixed feelings about Wilson's success as a Jet. But I do long for the rivalry to be meaningful and fun to watch. Like the Jets Monday night miracle, the fake spike and the Marino vs O'Brien shootout in 1986 when you were a kid.

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The reasons are two fold: He's a Jet - until they prove otherwise people will see that as a QB killing franchise (right or wrong); In fantasy running QBs are just more valuable.

Mahomes is a unicorn but I think more goes into that than just Mahomes talent.  He landed in the absolute best place to fulfill his potential.  I know a bunch of Bears fans bitter that they passed Mah

He’s not as good as Patrick Mahomes yet? You don’t say.

5 minutes ago, SoBeDad said:

I'm a Dolphin fan, so I have mixed feelings about Wilson's success as a Jet. But I do long for the rivalry to be meaningful and fun to watch. Like the Jets Monday night miracle, the fake spike and the Marino vs O'Brien shootout in 1986 when you were a kid.

Tagovailoa and Wilson hardly has the same heavyweight feel as the Marino/O'Brien 51-45 game, you know? Just a moment that won't be replicated considering what an aberration that score was for the time.

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2 hours ago, SoBeDad said:

I'm a Dolphin fan, so I have mixed feelings about Wilson's success as a Jet. But I do long for the rivalry to be meaningful and fun to watch. Like the Jets Monday night miracle, the fake spike and the Marino vs O'Brien shootout in 1986 when you were a kid.

Al Michaels recalls the time Arnold Schwarzenegger terminated the Dolphins

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Brian Baldinger @BaldyNFL

.@BYUfootball @zachkapono1 @Chiefs @PatrickMahomes very similar delivery on these TD “shovel passes”. He makes a few throws every game which reminds us of the #MVP. #GoCougs #BaldysBreakdowns

https://twitter.com/baldynfl/status/1386448110222721025?s=21
 

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Chad Forbes @NFLDraftBites

People keep forgetting Zach Wilson is being selected to play professional football, not for the Harlem Globetrotters. Sidearm & Shovel Throws or “Off Platform” don’t feel like a trait to be valued in QB evaluation.

https://twitter.com/nfldraftbites/status/1386450818048593920?s=21

 

Quote

Chad Forbes @NFLDraftBites

Will Zach Wilson’s sidearm throws work with a Guard in lap and 6-6 Chris Jones in face. Can he make outside structure plays when not facing the North Alabama Lions? 

Average talent sold as Mahomes / Rodgers because it looked that way stylistically against the Troy Trojans

https://twitter.com/nfldraftbites/status/1386452437842731008?s=21

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I love how the unemployed Twitter scouts have decided he's no good. As soon as he was locked into the Jets and race became an unspoken issue with Fields, Wilson sucked in their eyes. Can't trust the news of anybody when biases come to the fore. It's almost transparent.

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On 4/24/2021 at 5:39 PM, SoBeDad said:

Simms got it right with ... Burrow, Herbert, Love, Tua last year.

https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/kqp0t5/chris_simms_record_with_quarterback_evaluation/

I think it's extremely dangerous to call the 2020 class with any kind of certainty. 

I remember it wasn't very long ago that a guy named Blake Bortles was dynasty QB6, and Mariota was QB8 (June 2016)

Or what about June 2017 when Winston was QB3, Mariota QB5 and Derek Carr QB6 (all ahead of Dak Prescott)

June 2018 - Carson Wentz QB4

June 2019 - Baker Mayfield QB3

My point is that the fortunes of young QBs change drastically in their first few seasons, and claiming that any analyst "called it" for the 2020 class is absurdly premature.

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4 hours ago, rockaction said:

I love how the unemployed Twitter scouts have decided he's no good. As soon as he was locked into the Jets and race became an unspoken issue with Fields, Wilson sucked in their eyes. Can't trust the news of anybody when biases come to the fore. It's almost transparent.

We dealt with the same thing with Baker. Your well established reputation is who you are until after you prove otherwise.

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I legit hope the Jets take Fields and throw the draft into utter chaos.

:o 

 

 

 

 

 

then Wilson can begin his HOF career with the 49ers, of course. :pickle:

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  • Faust changed the title to Dynasty: QB Zach Wilson, Jets
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Jets selected Zach Wilson with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.

A three-star high school recruit, Wilson (6’2/214) only averaged 7.9 yards per attempt with a 23/12 TD/INT ratio through his first two seasons before taking a massive junior-year leap. His 11.0 yards per attempt average and 33/3 TD/INT ratio in 2020 led the Cougars to a 11-1 record. Despite being undersized, the ball zips out of Wilson’s hand with high-end velocity, and he can do so at multiple arm angles inside and outside the pocket. Wilson had a Johnny Manziel-like playing style as an aggressive, flashy passer with enough scrambling ability to keep defenses honest. He had 254 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground last year, and averaged 7.1 rushing attempts per game over three seasons at BYU. He could have sneaky rushing upside in the NFL. Wilson arguably had the best tape of any 2021 prospect last year, but some context is needed. He was only pressured on 21 percent of his dropbacks and faced the 33rd easiest schedule out of 128 FBS teams. How well he can handle pressure and more complex defenses is a total unknown, but the upside of his arm talent is worth a dice roll at the game’s most important position. His presence under center for New York is a fantasy boon for every Jets pass catcher, including Denzel Mims, Corey Davis, Jamison Crowder, and Chris Herndon. Hopefully the Jets' pass blocking -- ranked by Pro Football Focus as the league's second worst in 2020 -- improves for Wilson in 2021. 

- Rotoworld

 

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  • Faust changed the title to Dynasty & Redraft: QB Zach Wilson, Jets
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ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. writes that he "still [has] questions" about the New York Jets' selection of BYU QB Zach WIlson.

In his winners/losers column posted Friday morning, Kiper seemed to let out a little frustration over the Wilson pick, writing that just because the pick had been foregone knowledge for some time, that did not mean it was the correct choice for Gang Green. The ESPN analyst went on to explain that "[t]he Jets could have used this pick on a massive upgrade around [traded QB Sam] Darnold -- most likely tight end Kyle Pitts -- but instead they're starting over with another young quarterback." Kiper notes that Darnold is still just 23 years old and that he "hasn't come even close to reaching his ceiling yet." For what it's worth, Kiper had no qualms with New York's later selection of USC T Alijah Vera-Tucker with the No. 14 selection.

SOURCE: ESPN.com

Apr 30, 2021, 12:15 PM ET

 

 

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With the discussion of Lance in SF, fields in Chicago, Jones in NE, and of course just the great TL in Jax; Wilson is sort of being overlooked. 

I really don't know where I'd draft him even in SF. 5 maybe? Late 2 in regular leagues?

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All aboard this train now. He's my backup QB in my main league now, and I hope he does great for the Jets for personal reasons. Let's go, mang!

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Posted (edited)

Ditto. Took him at 1.05 in my 14 team SF (Lawrence, Lance, Fields went 1-3). Same owner had 1.04 and 1.06 and his only QBs are Tannehill and Eason but he took Pitts at 1.04. Even though QB is not a great need for my team, I wasn't going to gift him a starting QB.

I liked all the reports I read pre-draft (working with John Beck, driving 10 hours to do so, working food delivery for gas money). Think he has a solid head on his shoulders. Like the moves the Jets made to support him (Vera-Tucker, Moore, Carter). Arrows up right now. Hopefully they keep building around him and help him develop.

Edited by zaner75
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1 hour ago, zed2283 said:

I find it curious how he went from being the next big thing and the #2 QB in the draft (and drafted #2) to being the #4 rookie QB.

I wouldn't read too much into it. Lance ran for 1100 yards and 14 TD's his one year as a starter. Fields is much more of a pass first QB (season high rushing of 484-10), but he has the ability (4.4 40) to run too. Not that Wilson can't run (254-10 last year), but his rushing ceiling is lower than those 2.

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I've gotten him at 2.7 which seemed like fair value, 3.2 which seemed like good value and 4.1 and I had to google him to make sure he didnt get in a car accident or something first.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Dynasty Superflex. I’m sitting in the 6 spot right now and trying to trade up. If I don’t, there’s a decent chance I’m staring at Wilson. I’ve watched the tape and see him as Smokin’ Jay Cutler with a better attitude more than Rodgers/Mahomes.  

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On 5/11/2021 at 12:45 PM, zed2283 said:

I find it curious how he went from being the next big thing and the #2 QB in the draft (and drafted #2) to being the #4 rookie QB.

The reasons are two fold:

  1. He's a Jet - until they prove otherwise people will see that as a QB killing franchise (right or wrong);
  2. In fantasy running QBs are just more valuable.
Edited by Dr. Octopus
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2 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

The reasons are two fold:

  1. He's a Jet - until they prove otherwise people will see that as a QB killing franchise (right or wrong);
  2. In fantasy running QBs are just more valuable.

I'd add a third. Quite a few -- and I mean quite a few -- scouts think that Fields and Lance are better QBs even without the added rushing that is so important in fantasy. If you think they're about the same, then you go with the rushing. Even if you think they're not the same, if you think Fields and Lance win and keep their jobs for the duration of their rookie deals, they're worth more than Wilson. And even Lawrence, maybe, in my and others' opinions.

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On 5/11/2021 at 12:45 PM, zed2283 said:

I find it curious how he went from being the next big thing and the #2 QB in the draft (and drafted #2) to being the #4 rookie QB.

I think the Wilson backlash was because of how he went from “hey this kid is surprising everyone with how well he’s playing, he’s going to be a 1st round pick” to “wait he’s going 2nd overall now? Let’s pump the breaks a bit.”
 

That backlash often comes when someone goes from trendy underdog to the top so quickly. Also I think people dug in and realized he played a very cake schedule in 2020.

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23 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:
  1. In fantasy running QBs are just more valuable.

It's almost 100% this for me though it's fair to point out I think he slightly outscored Lawrence in per game fantasy rushing production, I just think Trevor has more ability to excel at it.

This is also why I have Lance as dynasty QB1 from this draft.

 

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50 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Trevor Lawrence ran for 9 & 8 touchdowns the last two years. He's no slouch athlete.

Wilson also ran for 10 himself last year and I certainly recall Trevor looking like a gazelle in that playoff game vs Ohio St.

Major difference between Trevor's projected rushing stats for me vs Lance and Fields is they simply seem quicker to resort to using their legs.

How much of this is based on scheme they were in vs what they will be in  we'll find out but using just Fields time in Ohio St and omitting Lance's freshmen season he barely played here is rushing attempts per game:

Lance-10.8

Fields- 9.9

Wilson-7.1

Trevor- 5.7

Long way of saying it's not athleticism with Trevor, it's just about how much he'll want to use his legs.

 

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13 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Trevor Lawrence ran for 9 & 8 touchdowns the last two years. He's no slouch athlete.

Don’t sell him short, Andy. He’s a tremendous slouch 

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I talked myself into going heavy on him across the board after he was around at 1.8 in my first rookie draft of the season (all superflex). Seems undervalued for going 2nd overall, and his highlights sure look pretty. But what the hell do I know.

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On 5/21/2021 at 10:17 AM, Ilov80s said:

I think the Wilson backlash was because of how he went from “hey this kid is surprising everyone with how well he’s playing, he’s going to be a 1st round pick” to “wait he’s going 2nd overall now? Let’s pump the breaks a bit.”
 

That backlash often comes when someone goes from trendy underdog to the top so quickly. Also I think people dug in and realized he played a very cake schedule in 2020.

His cake schedule was far less so than Lance’s.

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2 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

His cake schedule was far less so than Lance’s.

No doubt. Lance infatuation is the dual threat for sure. 

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56 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

No doubt. Lance infatuation is the dual threat for sure. 

And the better support system on every level of course.

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1 hour ago, Dr. Octopus said:

And the better support system on every level of course.

Great point. Lance might succeed and Wilson fail even if Wilson is actually better. 

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  • 2 weeks later...
Quote

Connor Hughes @Connor_J_Hughes

An easy way to describe Zach Wilson through the first two weeks of the #Jets’ OTAs: The rookie QB didn’t look like a rookie QB.

You could say that Tuesday, too. 

Only it wouldn’t do his practice justice.

Because Wilson looked good.

Really, really good

https://twitter.com/connor_j_hughes/status/1402390933472264199?s=21

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Robby Sabo @RobbySabo

Again, everything about Zach Wilson as compared to Sam Darnold is much quicker. The release, the feet, the decisions. describe it is this: Wilson isn’t a “thinker.” Can’t play football (any sport, really, especially shoot in basketball), by overthinking everything. #Jets

https://twitter.com/robbysabo/status/1402312216196624386?s=21

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So far cautiously optimistic on Zach - I hated how Darnold seemed to overthink things to the extreme and still win up taking a sack or an awful pick.  This kid seems more like an instinctual gunslinger.  He'll make mistakes but he'll also make a lot more plays.  Just praying he can bulk up a bit and stay healthy.....

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53 minutes ago, Kiddnets said:

  Just praying he can bulk up a bit and stay healthy.....

A lot of QBs come into the league "skinny" and/or with no muscle tone, including some of the greatest ever like Montana, Brady, Brees and Manning.

And then we have current guys like Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray and Joe Burrow that are small and frail looking. I;m not too worried about his size.

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